Why Ryan should stay, for the time being!

[Platoon]

This was posted by Matthew Trueblood on BP. I really have no knowledge of his writings, or his accuracy. But this article does seem to lay out the case for the rationale, timing and replacement of Ryan. And the necessity of a total house cleaning. One can argue each and every decision TR has made, but one cannot escape the mediocricy of the last twenty years. I include the Smith tenure, due to the Twins acknowledgment of Ryans involvement. In his closing he comments on the long term danger of not making a change. And I concur. The simple fact is that if this team does not take advantage of the current prospect list with some proactive roster reconstruction, the future is going to be at best more of the same, win enough to to be relevant to MN, but not enough to be relevant to MLB.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29264

[gunnarthor]

I think the article was a bit rushed and ignored some changes but I do think, like Reusse, that Ryan will be gone at the end of the year.  When Ryan came back, he changed a lot of the minor league development people, including installing Brad Steil as farm director, and minor league coaches.  I think Steil's done a very good job in both developing talent and pushing it up the system in his short time here.  Obviously, it's easy when you have talent like Buxton and Sano in your system but we've also seen "lesser" prospects pushed and making big leaps on prospect lists.  I wouldn't want him to leave.    

[Platoon]

I am not sure that rushed is in play here. The article dealt with the timing of Ryans departure. It also dealt with the possibility that he won't. Unfortunately I see only two ways this plays out. And this observation is not based on wishful thinking , but on over two decades of this clubs ownership. Ryan retires, but only if Pohlad agrees to his hand picked successor, with the understanding that all the key staff stay in place, or are reassigned on no less than a lateral basis. Or Ryan stays! That's it, folks. Any thought that the Pohlads would flat out fire him, or force his retirement ignore Twins history. And even a forced retirement would mean Ryan had negotiated security for his loyal subordinates. As a human trait, such loyalty is a positive, as a philosophy in improving this orginisation, it's definitely a negative!

[gunnarthor]

 

I am not sure that rushed is in play here. The article dealt with the timing of Ryans departure. It also dealt with the possibility that he won't. Unfortunately I see only two ways this plays out. And this observation is not based on wishful thinking , but on over two decades of this clubs ownership. Ryan retires, but only if Pohlad agrees to his hand picked successor, with the understanding that all the key staff stay in place, or are reassigned on no less than a lateral basis. Or Ryan stays! That's it, folks. Any thought that the Pohlads would flat out fire him, or force his retirement ignore Twins history. And even a forced retirement would mean Ryan had negotiated security for his loyal subordinates. As a human trait, such loyalty is a positive, as a philosophy in improving this orginisation, it's definitely a negative!

There's a bit too much conspiracy theory in there for me.  First, I very much doubt Ryan can give the Pohlad's ultimatums like the one you are suggesting and even if he could it is even less likely that the Pohlad's would listen to it.  I'm sure the Pohlad family (quite rightly) respects Ryan and would prefer not to embarrass him but that's a bit different from saying they will let him set the terms of his firing - if that's what the owners decide.  My guess is, if they do want him to leave, they'll tell him at the end of the year that they are sorry it didn't work out but they need to go another way, they'd love for him to step down but if he doesn't they'll fire him.  They might offer him another position in the org but the new GM/guy in charge would be X (Reusse hinted that the Twins would try and bring in Hoyer).

 

Secondly, I think a little too much has been made about the lack of turnover.  Nearly the entire minor league and major league coaching staffs have been changed since Ryan took over.  A new farm director - a very young one - was installed.  An analytical group was created.  Ryan also raided other orgs for scouting guys.  It is true that some people have been with the org for decades - which isn't necessarily a bad thing - but Radcliff or Krivisky aren't going to stop a change from being made, if the owners decide to make one.  Other people that have been with the org for many years like St Peter have no impact on the baseball field.  

 

[HitInAPinch]

 

I am not sure that rushed is in play here. The article dealt with the timing of Ryans departure. It also dealt with the possibility that he won't. Unfortunately I see only two ways this plays out. And this observation is not based on wishful thinking , but on over two decades of this clubs ownership. Ryan retires, but only if Pohlad agrees to his hand picked successor, with the understanding that all the key staff stay in place, or are reassigned on no less than a lateral basis. Or Ryan stays! That's it, folks. Any thought that the Pohlads would flat out fire him, or force his retirement ignore Twins history. And even a forced retirement would mean Ryan had negotiated security for his loyal subordinates. As a human trait, such loyalty is a positive, as a philosophy in improving this orginisation, it's definitely a negative!

Shirley you must be joking.....

[Mr. Brooks]

There's a bit too much conspiracy theory in there for me. First, I very much doubt Ryan can give the Pohlad's ultimatums like the one you are suggesting and even if he could it is even less likely that the Pohlad's would listen to it. I'm sure the Pohlad family (quite rightly) respects Ryan and would prefer not to embarrass him but that's a bit different from saying they will let him set the terms of his firing - if that's what the owners decide. My guess is, if they do want him to leave, they'll tell him at the end of the year that they are sorry it didn't work out but they need to go another way, they'd love for him to step down but if he doesn't they'll fire him. They might offer him another position in the org but the new GM/guy in charge would be X (Reusse hinted that the Twins would try and bring in Hoyer).

 

Secondly, I think a little too much has been made about the lack of turnover. Nearly the entire minor league and major league coaching staffs have been changed since Ryan took over. A new farm director - a very young one - was installed. An analytical group was created. Ryan also raided other orgs for scouting guys. It is true that some people have been with the org for decades - which isn't necessarily a bad thing - but Radcliff or Krivisky aren't going to stop a change from being made, if the owners decide to make one. Other people that have been with the org for many years like St Peter have no impact on the baseball field.

Ownership has flatly said on no uncertain terms that Ryan controls his own fate, and has the position for as long as he wants it, regardless of performance.

So, none of that stuff is "conspiracy theory" type stuff.

[huhguy]

The fallacy in this argument of course is you are saying keep the problem that is obviously a horrible evalator of talent..make sure to keep him to draft more horrible talent..good conclusion

[gunnarthor]

 

Ownership has flatly said on no uncertain terms that Ryan controls his own fate, and has the position for as long as he wants it, regardless of performance.
So, none of that stuff is "conspiracy theory" type stuff.

Owners have said that a hundred times and made changes.  And the counter of that is that Ryan has said that he doesn't believe he has that security.  If the Pohlad family decides that Ryan has to leave - which they might not - they'll move on.  They aren't going to decide that they need a new guy and run it by Ryan to get his permission. 

 

Now, they could very well believe that Ryan is the right guy for the job and keep him but that's a different discussion.  

[Platoon]

Shirley you must be joking.....

To answer a couple posts, there have been some changes, instituted by the same FO. If I am going to rearrange deck chairs, I am bringing in someone who is basically on the same page as I am, as would anyone. And thinking Ryan cannot orchestrate his retirement, ignores the rehiring of the Bill Smiths, Gardenhires, Kvinskys etc, not to speak of bring the band back together mentality. It's an orginisational modus operandi. They cannot help themselves. And please, stop calling me Surely!

[HitInAPinch]

Reading through Matthew Trueblood's editorial, I couldn't decide how much he was serious or joking.

I got down to the line "I think the Pohlads, who own the Twins, have been in Minnesota too long" and the rest of that paragraph was insulting Minnesota people.

 

Carl Pohlad is dead.  2 of his sons are running the team.  Recently, Jim Pohlad made a damning statement about the current status of the Twins system and management.  And recently, he showed up on the field, something I don't remember Carl ever doing.  Carl was at every home game, as a fan.

 

I believe change is a real possibility this year and the timing is real simple:  All Star Break.

 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm ready for TR to move on.

 

I think he was right when he left the firs time, the industry has changed, and other/different skills are needed out of the GM than those  that he has displayed.

 

The world is a very different place in baseball than it was when he last succeeded. He could change, but there isn't a ton of evidence that he has (we don't know, and never will). I'm not talking about advanced statistics here, but information that used to be held closely by scouts is now widely available. And, I'm not even talking what we see.....but information inside an organization, that used to be stuck on paper and in scouts' heads? That is widely available. Talent is widely known. There is data and information all over the place. 

 

The world has changed, not just in baseball, but all over. Some people/orgs that succeeded in the time before freely available information have gone out of business, and some have adapted and survived and thrived. I truly believe that the issue here is total system failure, failure to quickly adapt to a changing world.

[Mr. Brooks]

Owners have said that a hundred times and made changes. And the counter of that is that Ryan has said that he doesn't believe he has that security. If the Pohlad family decides that Ryan has to leave - which they might not - they'll move on. They aren't going to decide that they need a new guy and run it by Ryan to get his permission.

 

Now, they could very well believe that Ryan is the right guy for the job and keep him but that's a different discussion.

I'm sorry but I think you are wrong.

Saying someone's job is secure is one thing.

Flat out saying, multiple times, that an employee is welcome to his job for as long as he wants it is something totally different entirely.

I'm not sure I've quite seen it put that certainly in any other situation in sports.

[DaveW]

 

Owners have said that a hundred times and made changes.  And the counter of that is that Ryan has said that he doesn't believe he has that security. 

Ryan absolutely has that security, one could argue that Terry Ryan has had the most job security of any GM in any of the major sports, the Pohlad's multiple times have anointed Ryan the GM for life.

[gunnarthor]

 

Ryan absolutely has that security, one could argue that Terry Ryan has had the most job security of any GM in any of the major sports, the Pohlad's multiple times have anointed Ryan the GM for life.

Sure, they could.  And I tend to think most of the problems of this years team are not on Ryan.  But the issue - as I understand it - isn't whether Ryan should go or shouldn't go.  The issue seems to be that some people think the Pohlad family THINKS Ryan should go but won't get rid of him unless the Pohlads meet some of Ryan's demands.  I think that's ludicrous.  

[Mr. Brooks]

Sure, they could. And I tend to think most of the problems of this years team are not on Ryan. But the issue - as I understand it - isn't whether Ryan should go or shouldn't go. The issue seems to be that some people think the Pohlad family THINKS Ryan should go but won't get rid of him unless the Pohlads meet some of Ryan's demands. I think that's ludicrous.

I think you misunderstood.

I think the suggestion is that the Pohlad's don't care if he stays or goes. So the onus falls on Ryan to step aside, which he will only do if he can name his successor.

[gunnarthor]

 

I think you misunderstood.
I think the suggestion is that the Pohlad's don't care if he stays or goes. So the onus falls on Ryan to step aside, which he will only do if he can name his successor.

Ahh, then we are discussing different things.  

[Kwak]

If every candidate to replace Ryan states (essentially) "...I want total control...,  I need another 20-30MM dollars to spend...", then it's very likely Ryan remains.  I don't see the Pohlads   turning their ballclub over to a stranger especially if he expects to spend substantially more money.  Politically, I don't believe a complete teardown to <$50MM budget is a possibility either.  This sort of leaves the same course Ryan adopted in 2012-2013 or the course he took for 2015.

[Mr. Brooks]

Ryan has continually fell on the sword for the Pohlads, money wise.

With laughably false statements like ownership has never said no to spending money, why wouldn't they keep him around while they print money while defrauding the tax payers?

[Major League Ready]

 

This was posted by Matthew Trueblood on BP. I really have no knowledge of his writings, or his accuracy. But this article does seem to lay out the case for the rationale, timing and replacement of Ryan. And the necessity of a total house cleaning. One can argue each and every decision TR has made, but one cannot escape the mediocricy of the last twenty years. I include the Smith tenure, due to the Twins acknowledgment of Ryans involvement. In his closing he comments on the long term danger of not making a change. And I concur. The simple fact is that if this team does not take advantage of the current prospect list with some proactive roster reconstruction, the future is going to be at best more of the same, win enough to to be relevant to MN, but not enough to be relevant to MLB.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29264

Many people here have insisted we have sucked for a long period of time.  About 6 months ago, I posted the win records for all of the team with roughly the same revenue or less revenue than the Twins.  Only Oakland had a better win percentage since the turn of the century.  That's a very difficult fact to overlook.  Too many people fail to acknowledge relative revenue when evaluating win/loss over a long period of time.

 

It might be time for a change.  I don't know.  Anyone who thinks they can make that call with the information we have available has likely not taken part in any such exercise.  Evaluating leadership and management practices requires a much more systematic approach with all of the information.  That list of information is long and includes many things I have never seen mentioned here.

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Many people here have insisted we have sucked for a long period of time.  About 6 months ago, I posted the win records for all of the team with roughly the same revenue or less revenue than the Twins.  Only Oakland had a better win percentage since the turn of the century.  That's a very difficult fact to overlook.  Too many people fail to acknowledge relative revenue when evaluating win/loss over a long period of time.

 

It might be time for a change.  I don't know.  Anyone who thinks they can make that call with the information we have available has likely not taken part in any such exercise.  Evaluating leadership and management practices requires a much more systematic approach with all of the information.  That list of information is long and includes many things I have never seen mentioned here.

 

if you choose to limit spending, and wins and losses is how you are judged.....why should we feel good about it?

 

Why should any fan care about limits the team puts on itself about how much money it makes or doesn't make?

 

If your strategy is to draft and develop, and limit international spending, and not spend much money......and you don't draft and develop well, fans should be what? Happy because compared to other teams that don't spend money, you aren't as crappy?

 

What will those win loss records look like after this year, do you suppose? This is season what of the not a rebuild?

 

No one cares what their record is compared to other teams that won't spend money. You don't entertain people by having the most wins per dollar spent, you do that by putting good, exciting players on the field. They've largely failed to do that for 6 years now.

[DaveW]

The Twins have the worst record in baseball since Terry Ryan came back. They will have had 90+ losses in 5 of the last 6 years total.

 

The "mid market" excuse doesn't even come close to applying here. It's absolute and total failure.

[gunnarthor]

 

The Twins have the worst record in baseball since Terry Ryan came back. They will have had 90+ losses in 5 of the last 6 years total.

The "mid market" excuse doesn't even come close to applying here. It's absolute and total failure.

Well, actually, that's not true.  The Astros have the worst record.  And I think that's a pretty good comparison.  Do you think Lunhow should be fired by Houston?  After all, they were already in 4 years of rebuild when he got there.  He traded away a lot of minor league talent for a proven closer, Gomez and Gattis.  I suspect you think he should get more time.  I think Ryan's in the same boat.  Up until this season, I thought the rebuild was on schedule.  This year has been a disaster but is the nucleus really that bad? 

 

And I think it does make sense to compare how Ryan has done in his job by looking at all the constraints he has had.  We might not like that the Pohlad family was generally cheap but it was the reality.  

[alarp33]

 

Up until this season, I thought the rebuild was on schedule.  This year has been a disaster but is the nucleus really that bad? 

 

And I think it does make sense to compare how Ryan has done in his job by looking at all the constraints he has had.  We might not like that the Pohlad family was generally cheap but it was the reality.  

 

1) They are 11-32, yes the nucleus is bad. 

 

2) What constraints? The $200 million the Pohlad's are paying/ did pay to Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey and Kurt Suzuki?  That's a constraint, or a GM that doesn't know how to spend money?

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, actually, that's not true. The Astros have the worst record. And I think that's a pretty good comparison. Do you think Lunhow should be fired by Houston? After all, they were already in 4 years of rebuild when he got there. He traded away a lot of minor league talent for a proven closer, Gomez and Gattis. I suspect you think he should get more time. I think Ryan's in the same boat. Up until this season, I thought the rebuild was on schedule. This year has been a disaster but is the nucleus really that bad?

 

And I think it does make sense to compare how Ryan has done in his job by looking at all the constraints he has had. We might not like that the Pohlad family was generally cheap but it was the reality.

I actually do think the nucleus is that bad.

On the entire 25 man roster, I think Sano, (and maybe Ervin) is the only player that a WS contending GM would want on his roster in any capacity.

[DaveW]

 

I actually do think the nucleus is that bad.
On the entire 25 man roster, I think Sano, (and maybe Ervin) is the only player that a WS contending GM would want on his roster in any capacity.

That's a little overboard.

Every team would take Duffey in the rotation currently, every team would take Park to play DH or 1B, most teams would take Dozier to play 2nd.

Abad would have plenty of suitors as a LOOGY

 

 

[DaveW]

 

 

Well, actually, that's not true.  The Astros have the worst record.  And I think that's a pretty good comparison.  Do you think Lunhow should be fired by Houston?  After all, they were already in 4 years of rebuild when he got there.  He traded away a lot of minor league talent for a proven closer, Gomez and Gattis.  I suspect you think he should get more time.  I think Ryan's in the same boat.  Up until this season, I thought the rebuild was on schedule.  This year has been a disaster but is the nucleus really that bad? 

 

And I think it does make sense to compare how Ryan has done in his job by looking at all the constraints he has had.  We might not like that the Pohlad family was generally cheap but it was the reality.  

Lunhow has had his fingerprints on the team for a few years, Ryan has had his fingerprints all over the Twins for two decades now.

During that time the Twins won one playoff series and are well below .500 overall during those 20 years as well.

That is failure, plain and simple, people can try to spin it however they want, but 1 playoff series win in 20 years is failure for ANY professional sports team. These last 6 years.. even moreso.

[Shane Wahl]

Everyone needs to go. I guess I think various coaches including Allen and Guardado are fine, but everyone else has to go. St. Peter on down.

[Mr. Brooks]

That's a little overboard.

 

Every team would take Duffey in the rotation currently, every team would take Park to play DH or 1B, most teams would take Dozier to play 2nd.

Abad would have plenty of suitors as a LOOGY

I forgot about Park.

You are probably right on Duffey, though he'd probably be a 4/5 on a contending team.

Abad is a tiny sample size so far and was a minor league FA.

 

Dozier no way. He's barely a replacement level player at this point.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

2) What constraints? The $200 million the Pohlad's are paying/ did pay to Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey and Kurt Suzuki?  That's a constraint, or a GM that doesn't know how to spend money?

The internet is a fun place.  You get to be snarky for free.  Not a lot of restrictions.  If you post too much crazy crap, you can just wash it away with a new username.

 

That said, you understood exactly what constraints we were talking about.  You read major league ready's post so you knew what the parameters of the discussion were.  You choose to misread or misinterpret on purpose.  It's already a loaded topic so why fan things worse with petty stuff like that?  You could have ignored the discussion or started your own.  Couldn't you have just said, "I don't care about the payroll constraints before TF opened."  (There are flaws in that as well but at least you'd be on point).  Instead you write an offbeat opinion that has nothing to do with MLR's post and expect it to be looked at seriously?

[gunnarthor]

 

Lunhow has had his fingerprints on the team for a few years, Ryan has had his fingerprints all over the Twins for two decades now.

During that time the Twins won one playoff series and are well below .500 overall during those 20 years as well.

That is failure, plain and simple, people can try to spin it however they want, but 1 playoff series win in 20 years is failure for ANY professional sports team. These last 6 years.. even moreso.

OK.  Fine, and that's your opinion so you can have it.  But I do think that's a bit underselling Ryan and whatnot.  I disagree - obviously.  I think Ryan and Lunhow have both been at the helm for the last "few years" and should be given time to see things through.