Article: The 2016 AL Central All-Prospect Team

[Nick Nelson]

Earlier this week we posted an overview of the Minnesota Twins' farm system, touching on its strengths and weaknesses. It is a pipeline that weighs heavily in importance because the Twins are relying so strongly on internally developed players to fuel their rise to contention.

 

Of course, they're not the only team in the division counting on prospects to figure prominently into future success.

 

Today, I thought it would be a fun exercise to put together a lineup featuring the best prospects in the American League Central as we head into the 2016 campaign.This list is, of course, quite subjective. I took into account both the team-by-team and overall rankings from publications such as Baseball America and MLB.com, and adjusted a little bit based on readiness (in borderline situations, I opted for the guy who figures to make an impact more quickly).

 

Here's what I came up with for a starting lineup plus three pitchers.

 

C: Francisco Mejia, CLE

Age: 20 | ETA: 2018

 

Catcher is a thin position throughout the entire division. Of the 50 players to appear on Baseball America's Top 10 lists for the Central, there's ONE backstop. It's Mejia, who was ranked 10th in the Cleveland system. He's not a great prospect by any means, and is coming off a season where he posted a .670 OPS at Single-A, but he's young and has strong defensive skills. That's enough to rise to the top of an unimpressive crop.

 

1B: Max Kepler, MIN

Age: 23 | ETA: 2016

 

Kepler has played mostly in the outfield during his ascension through the minors, but he has played plenty of first and many believe that's his best defensive position. He's certainly superior to any of the division's strictly first base prospects, so he gets the nod coming off a breakout season at Double-A.

 

2B: Raul Mondesi Jr, KC

Age: 20 | ETA: 2017

 

The son of a former big-leaguer, Mondesi's tools and pedigree have always overshadowed his on-field production – he's a .246/.293/.365 hitter in the minors – but there's a reason the Dominican import keeps climbing prospect lists in spite of his meager offensive numbers. He is a phenomenal athlete with outstanding defensive skills, and despite the fact that he won't turn 21 until July, he has already put in a full season at Double-A and appeared in a World Series game. Mondesi will probably play shortstop in the majors, but has played some second so we'll flex him there in order to get a Royal into the mix.

 

SS: Tim Anderson, CWS

Age: 22 | ETA: 2016

 

Chicago's No. 1 prospect, Anderson is a wiry shortstop in the Dee Gordon mold, with a bit less speed and a bit more pop. Last year at Double-A he batted .312 and led the Southern League with 49 steals. The Sox let Alexei Ramirez walk during the offseason and signed only stopgap veteran Jimmy Rollins as a fill-in, so the door is wide open for this former first-round pick.

 

3B: Trey Michalczewski, CWS

Age: 21 | ETA: 2018

 

Much like catcher, this is a weak position for the division. Michalczewski is the only third baseman to appear on any of BA's Top 10 lists; he ranks fourth for the White Sox despite a .257/.335/.387 slash line through three minor-league seasons. He's mostly projection at this point, but shows patience at the plate that is uncommon for his age and scouts believe the power will come.

 

LF: Clint Frazier, CLE

Age: 21 | ETA: 2017

 

The Indians selected Frazier in the 2013 draft, one pick after Minnesota took shortstop Nick Gordon at No. 4. He is renowned for his smooth swing and excellent bat speed. Last year he hit .285/.377/.465 with 16 homers and 15 steals as a 20-year-old at High-A. He has played mostly center in the minors but is better suited for a corner.

 

CF: Byron Buxton, MIN

Age: 22 | ETA: 2016

 

A guy who needs no introduction. Buxton remains the consensus No. 2 prospect in baseball (behind Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager) in spite of the injuries and MLB struggles that have marred his last two seasons. That tells you all you need to know about how strongly evaluators everywhere believe in his ability and upside.

 

RF: Bradley Zimmer, CLE

Age: 23 | ETA: 2017

 

One year after selecting Frazier out of high school with their first-round pick, the Indians used their top selection in 2014 (21st overall) to acquire Zimmer out of the University of San Francisco. Both decisions have paid initial dividends. Last year was Zimmer's first full season as a pro, and he spent the second half of it holding his own at Double-A.

 

SP: Jose Berrios, MIN

Age: 21 | ETA: 2016

 

Berrios is the most highly-rated, and MLB-ready, pitching prospect in the division. With his combination of command, velocity, durability and tremendous stuff, he easily sets himself apart.

 

SP: Carson Fulmer, CWS

Age: 22 | ETA: 2017

 

The Vanderbilt product was arguably the best collegiate starter in last year's draft, and the Twins considered him at No. 6 before going with Tyler Jay. The White Sox ended up taking Fulmer two picks later. In his first taste of the pros, the righty lived up to the hype, posting a 25-to-9 K/BB ratio and 2.05 ERA in 22 innings at High-A. He's on the fast track to the Chicago rotation.

 

SP: Michael Fulmer, DET

Age: 22 | ETA: 2016

 

This Fulmer was the centerpiece of last year's deadline deal that sent Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets, who had quality young pitching to spare. He has a hard sinking fastball that induces plenty of grounders and he complements it with a swing-and-miss slider. The Tigers could use a youthful jolt in their rotation, so they are hoping he can emerge this season.

 

Representatives By Team

 

Twins: 3

Indians: 3

White Sox: 3

Royals: 1

Tigers: 1

 

THOUGHTS AND TAKEAWAYS

 

* We already knew this, but the Twins have the best system in the division by far and that's reflected here. They may have the same number of reps as the Indians and White Sox, but Minnesota's prospects are uniformly of a higher grade. Buxton and Berrios are decisively the two best on the list.

 

* Looking around the division makes me feel a little bit better about the weakness at catcher in the Twins' system, which I talked about on Monday. The truth is that quality prospects behind the plate are at a premium around the league. Only four appear on MLB.com's Top 100 list, and only five on Baseball America's (mostly toward the bottom).

 

It's really tough to find players that are functional behind the plate and can actually offer something with the bat. The Twins are hoping they've found one in John Ryan Murphy.

 

* It goes without saying that this All-Prospect Team would have looked a lot better with Francisco Lindor and Miguel Sano comprising the left side of the infield, but both graduated to the majors in 2015, finishing second and third for Rookie of the Year.

 

* The Twins' bounty of premier prospects is, to an extent, the byproduct of their half-decade in the cellar. Buxton and Berrios came in the same 2012 draft, at the front ends of the first two rounds. Nick Gordon and Tyler Jay, who both merited consideration for a spot in the All-Prospect group, were also top picks made possible by 90-loss seasons.

 

Detroit's system reflects the other end of the spectrum. Their annual success, combined with a willingness to forfeit first-round draft picks in order to sign big-name free agents, resulted in few opportunities to select from the top tier of amateur talent. Their one representative on this squad is Michael Fulmer, who is maybe the third-best pitching prospect in the division, and he wasn't in their organization until August of last year.

 

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[bluechipper]

I really wonder why the Royals have continued to push Mondesi up a level per year even though he hasn't hit at all. It'll be interesting to see if this hurts his development in the long run.

[alarp33]

Last year Keith Law had Mondesi ranked as the 38th prospect in baseball, and Jorge Polanco unranked... this year Mondesi is 73 and Polanco is 66. Interesting.  

 

 

[Dantes929]

No problem putting guys where you did but Polanco or Gordon could have gone to 2nd and third and there are probably other prospects on other teams that could be put in those spots as well.  That comment was just to underscore your point about the difference between quantity and quality.   Wow, does catcher look uninspiring.   

[bird]

Just read a blurb from a Chicago writer the other day saying Chicago team officials are suggesting that Carson Fulmer isn't on as fast a track as is perceived, and that he needs a full year of development time. Makes the Mat Latos pick-up all the more important as competition for their #4 and #5 slots, as the other contenders, Erik Johnson and John Danks, have scuffled a bit.

 

I'm not so sure MICHAEL Fulmer isn't in the same boat for Detroit. If the division comes down to a war of attrition in rotations, maybe the Twins would fare better.

 

In any event, the three prospects on this list most likely to seriously impact the season for their team are all Twins.

Edited March 9, 2016 by birdwatcher

[gunnarthor]

Fun article.  Probably have Park at DH, too.  

 

I don't know enough about relief pitching prospects/closers of the other teams but I would imagine the Twins would stack up there pretty well.

[bluechipper]

Fun article.  Probably have Park at DH, too.  

 

I don't know enough about relief pitching prospects/closers of the other teams but I would imagine the Twins would stack up there pretty well.

Klaw had Meyer, Burdi, and Reed in his top 10 relief prospects. And Chargois is basically at the same level as those guys.

[alarp33]

 

Just read a blurb from a Chicago writer the other day saying Chicago team officials are suggesting that Carson Fulmer isn't on as fast a track as is perceived, and that he needs a full year of development time. Makes the Mat Latos pick-up all the more important as competition for their #4 and #5 slots, as the other contenders, Erik Johnson and John Danks, have scuffled a bit.

 

I'm not so sure MICHAEL Fulmer isn't in the same boat for Detroit. If the division comes down to a war of attrition in rotations, maybe the Twins would fare better.

 

In any event, the three prospects on this list most likely to seriously impact the season for their team are all Twins.

 

I know Keith Law for one thinks Carson Fulmer is a reliever in the long run.  

 

Not so sure Michael Fulmer falls in the same boat, I bet he's in that Tigers rotation by mid season.  As for rotations, I'll still take Chicago's or Detroits, you can have the Twins

[bird]

I'll take Chicago's and Detroit's to start the season too, alarp, who wouldn't?

 

Just saying, give me two random injuries in the rotation for each team, and we might be singing a different tune.

[nicksaviking]

I know Keith Law for one thinks Carson Fulmer is a reliever in the long run.  

 

Not so sure Michael Fulmer falls in the same boat, I bet he's in that Tigers rotation by mid season.  As for rotations, I'll still take Chicago's or Detroits, you can have the Twins

Does Klaw think Fulmer will be a reliever due to his size? We know that's been a hang up of his in the past.

[alarp33]

 

Does Klaw think Fulmer will be a reliever due to his size? We know that's been a hang up of his in the past.

 

He was in the "Just Missed" part of the Top 100 list.  Below is what he wrote... Certainly it shouldn't be taken as gospel (I think many thought Sale would be a reliever, and that worked out ok I think), but I think Jay is a better prospect, and am glad the Twins chose him over Fulmer

 

He has a very violent delivery and tends to work too much out of the zone to be a big league starter, so I project him as a reliever, as did many scouts who saw him dealing for the Vanderbilt Commodores before the draft.

 

 

 

Edited March 10, 2016 by alarp33