OF Defense Flying South, Again

[mnfanforlife]

Does anyone else think that the improvement in the Twins' pitching last year, was mainly due to Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, and Byron Buxton playing a bunch of games in the outfield?  Remember Dicky B and Bert going on and on about how great the Twins' outfield defense was going to be in 2016, and how much that was going to help the pitching staff?

[drjim]

Those 3 started 5 games together last year.

[Vanimal46]

Yeah that was the dream of a great OF defense... But like drjim mentioned, unfortunately we didn't get to watch that dream OF defense much last year. I think once Hicks was traded we were dreaming of a Rosario-Buxton-Kepler OF defense by June/July at the latest. Now who knows.... 

[nicksaviking]

 

Does anyone else think that the improvement in the Twins' pitching last year, was mainly due to Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, and Byron Buxton playing a bunch of games in the outfield?  Remember Dicky B and Bert going on and on about how great the Twins' outfield defense was going to be in 2016, and how much that was going to help the pitching staff?

 

No because Phil Hughes was worse in 2015 and the only other consistent starting contributor in both 2014 and 2015 was Kyle Gibson, a groundball pitcher.

 

I hope you recall everyone freaking out about the Twins adding the defensive liability that was supposed to be Torii Hunter. Hunter was fine last year and played all season. I think it just goes to show you don't need great OF defense at TF because it's so small, at least RF.

[Willihammer]

Here is my nightmare scenario:

 

Sano is athletic "for his size," but he's probably not more athletic than Hanley Ramirez, Ed Escobar, Nunez, Bartlett, etc. Sano is a worse defender than any of these guys.

 

Forcing,

 

Buxton into everyday duty to make up for the RF weakness. Buxton struggles to hit the Florimon line and has to be optioned,

 

forcing

 

DanSan/Rosario/Kepler into everyday CF duty. Thereby weakening OF defense further.

[mnfanforlife]

 

Those 3 started 5 games together last year.

Yeah...the idea was...that they would be an awesome defensive outfield in 2016...

[gunnarthor]

 

Yeah...the idea was...that they would be an awesome defensive outfield in 2016...

The offensive side is more important and all three have question marks.  Frankly, I think Hicks was the least likely to succeed.  A Rosario/Buxton/Sano defense will be fine.

[nicksaviking]

 

Here is my nightmare scenario:

 

Sano is athletic "for his size," but he's probably not more athletic than Hanley Ramirez, Ed Escobar, Nunez, Bartlett, etc. Sano is a worse defender than any of these guys.

 

Forcing,

 

Buxton into everyday duty to make up for the RF weakness. Buxton struggles to hit the Florimon line and has to be optioned,

 

In what scenario isn't Buxton an everyday player?

 

If he's on the bench or platooning, something has gone very, very wrong with him, and more concerning, something has gone very, very wrong with management that they would allow the #2 prospect in the game to not get regular playing time somewhere.

 

Sano's lack of defensive ability should have no impact on Buxton, other than the actual literal meaning of the word impact, which wasn't referenced in the post.

[Willihammer]

 

In what scenario isn't Buxton an everyday player?.

Not in my nightmare scenario. Buxton plays everyday, either in Minn or Roc. My concern is that he hits in the .500s again, forcing the Twins to option him like they did with Hicks.

I guess i shouldn't forget Repko or Benson though. Maybe one of them would be recalled in that case, if they're still around.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It does seem odd that we went after Park rather than Hyun-soo Kim, without ever seeing Sano play a single game in the outfield.  You could still have Sano train and prepare for outfield duty, for the supposed health and versatility benefits, but you'd still have the option to start him at DH and field an all-defense outfield whenever you wanted.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Here is my nightmare scenario:

 

Sano is athletic "for his size," but he's probably not more athletic than Hanley Ramirez, Ed Escobar, Nunez, Bartlett, etc. Sano is a worse defender than any of these guys.

 

Forcing,

 

Buxton into everyday duty to make up for the RF weakness. Buxton struggles to hit the Florimon line and has to be optioned,

 

forcing

 

DanSan/Rosario/Kepler into everyday CF duty. Thereby weakening OF defense further.

On a more micro level, Sano might also get pulled frequently for a defensive sub too.  Which would hurt out ability to add to late leads, or come back if a lead gets blown.  And might require a bench spot for an OF caddy (Santana? Or Sweeney, etc.).

[Willihammer]

 

It does seem odd that we went after Park rather than Hyun-soo Kim, without ever seeing Sano play a single game in the outfield.  You could still have Sano train and prepare for outfield duty, for the supposed health and versatility benefits, but you'd still have the option to start him at DH and field an all-defense outfield whenever you wanted.

I would be shocked if Kim's bat sticks against MLB pitching and Park's doesn't. Kim's KBO numbers aren't nearly as impressive.

 

The Park signing was a good growth move IMO. It presents a crunch but they have options on everyone except Arcia (including Park). They can rebalance later if/when one of them works out. If not, they're out a small amount of money on a smart gamble.

[bluechipper]

Not in my nightmare scenario. Buxton plays everyday, either in Minn or Roc. My concern is that he hits in the .500s again, forcing the Twins to option him like they did with Hicks.

I guess i shouldn't forget Repko or Benson though. Maybe one of them would be recalled in that case, if they're still around.

What about Buxton's minor league numbers make you think this is even a remote possibility? I'm guessing you're concerned with the occasional contact issues, but I'd be more concerned that Rosario struggles this year than Buxton.

[Willihammer]

 

What about Buxton's minor league numbers make you think this is even a remote possibility? I'm guessing you're concerned with the occasional contact issues, but I'd be more concerned that Rosario struggles this year than Buxton.

Rosario regressing is definitely a possibility. That would probably be bad for OF defense too.

The cause for my concern about Buxton is his MLB numbers, not his MiLB ones. Also the Hicks fiasco after trading Revere when Hicks hadn't yet mastered AAA.

[alarp33]

 

Rosario regressing is definitely a possibility. That would probably be bad for OF defense too.

The cause for my concern about Buxton is his MLB numbers, not his MiLB ones. Also the Hicks fiasco after trading Revere when Hicks hadn't yet mastered AAA.

 

The good old, Aaron Hicks struggled so Buxton will as well argument.  Can't wait for these to go away.  

 

Psst: Mike Trout didn't hit in his first 200 mlb at bats either, why is that not brought up but Hicks is? Trout and Buxton are more similar prospects, no?

[Willihammer]

 

The good old, Aaron Hicks struggled so Buxton will as well argument.  Can't wait for these to go away.  

 

Psst: Mike Trout didn't hit in his first 200 mlb at bats either, why is that not brought up but Hicks is? Trout and Buxton are more similar prospects, no?

When will they Mike Trout - Byron Buxton comps end? Yes they both sailed through Cedar Rapids. The similarities end there. Trout is on a pace to be one of the greatest players of all time. Buxton, is not.

 

For mere mortals, which Buxton probably is, skipping AAA can be a challenge. Often it requires one or three option years to be exercised. If that happens this season, the OF defense will suffer.

 

edit: I realize Buxton hasn't completely skipped it but 59 PAs doesn't inspire much confidence that he's mastered it either.

[bluechipper]

Rosario regressing is definitely a possibility. That would probably be bad for OF defense too.

The cause for my concern about Buxton is his MLB numbers, not his MiLB ones. Also the Hicks fiasco after trading Revere when Hicks hadn't yet mastered AAA.

I'm not too concerned with Buxton's mlb performance last year. He's on a totally different level than Hicks ever was when he was coming up.

[alarp33]

 

When will they Mike Trout - Byron Buxton comps end? Yes they both sailed through Cedar Rapids. The similarities end there. Trout is on a pace to be one of the greatest players of all time. Buxton, is not.

 

For mere mortals, which Buxton probably is, skipping AAA can be a challenge. Often it requires one or three option years to be exercised. If that happens this season, the OF defense will suffer.

 

edit: I realize Buxton hasn't completely skipped it but 59 PAs doesn't inspire much confidence that he's mastered it either.

 

Mike Trout and Byron Buxton were both the top prospect in baseball, who struggled in their 1st 200 mlb at bats.  That is a farrrr more valid comp then Aaron Hicks, who was never near that level of prospect (bounced around in top 100 lists, don't think he was ever in a top 30).  

 

Mike Trout was not on pace to be one of the greatest players of all time after his 1st taste of the majors, which was kind of my point.  

 

PS: I don't think Buxton is going to be as good as Mike Trout, no one does.  

[Willihammer]

 

Mike Trout and Byron Buxton were both the top prospect in baseball, who struggled in their 1st 200 mlb at bats.  That is a farrrr more valid comp then Aaron Hicks, who was never near that level of prospect (bounced around in top 100 lists, don't think he was ever in a top 30).  

 

Mike Trout was not on pace to be one of the greatest players of all time after his 1st taste of the majors, which was kind of my point.  

 

PS: I don't think Buxton is going to be as good as Mike Trout, no one does.  

Fine. Would you concede its at least a "remote" possibility he has to be optioned in his 2nd  year? I don't believe that would be unheard of for a top prospect, would it?

[alarp33]

 

Fine. Would you concede its at least a "remote" possibility he has to be optioned in his 2nd  year? I don't believe that would be unheard of for a top prospect, would it?

 

I think it is certainly a possibility that he doesn't hit from Opening day on... I think his defense + base running alone make him by far the best option of any potential CFer on the roster. 

 

I don't believe he has anything more to gain in the Minor Leagues, so I personally would not option him again.  I don't believe that he is so delicate that hitting .200 for the 1st couple months is going to ruin him as a prospect.  He can take his lumps at the ML level while helping the team win in other ways. 

[alhweiner]

 

Does anyone else think that the improvement in the Twins' pitching last year, was mainly due to Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, and Byron Buxton playing a bunch of games in the outfield?  

which was countered by Suzuki being run out of the ballpark while unable to control opponents' running games......That is (one reason) why Aaron Hicks was traded for JR Murphy and Hermann/Fryer was replaced by John Hicks/Centeno at catcher.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would be shocked if Kim's bat sticks against MLB pitching and Park's doesn't.

I didn't say otherwise.  But Kim came with less risk, and seemed to better fill a more immediate need.  There's quite a range of outcomes for those two that would be grounds for questioning the Twins decision, in addition to the obvious but unlikely "Kim's bat sticks and Park's doesn't".

[TheLeviathan]

Forcing Sano from DH to the OF just doesn't make sense on any level.  

[bird]

 

Forcing Sano from DH to the OF just doesn't make sense on any level.  

 

 

Apparently, it does to someone. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Apparently, it does to someone. 

 

I pet dogs even though I'm allergic to them.  Still doesn't make it sensible.

[Thrylos]

Based on Bill James' plus/minus system the Twins' OF in 2015 improved 46 runs from that mess of 2014.  However, there is an opportunity here.  The 2015 OF was -11 runs.  I'd really wait to see who plays where and how, before I start dishing the 2016 OF.  Sano has the potential to have at least equal range to that of Hunter, which was not that much last season; cannot remember how many balls dropped in front of him...  There are a few good defensive centerfielders to chose from (their name is not Santana) and looks like Rosario will be the starter in LF, so there is no drop from last season, but actually a full season of Escobar at SS and not at LF (where he was horrible) will be an improvement.

 

2 months and a week or so until the opening day.   Lots of things to see before come with a conclusion about this one.

[Dantes929]

 

Based on Bill James' plus/minus system the Twins' OF in 2015 improved 46 runs from that mess of 2014.  However, there is an opportunity here.  The 2015 OF was -11 runs.  I'd really wait to see who plays where and how, before I start dishing the 2016 OF.  Sano has the potential to have at least equal range to that of Hunter, which was not that much last season; cannot remember how many balls dropped in front of him...  There are a few good defensive centerfielders to chose from (their name is not Santana) and looks like Rosario will be the starter in LF, so there is no drop from last season, but actually a full season of Escobar at SS and not at LF (where he was horrible) will be an improvement.

 

2 months and a week or so until the opening day.   Lots of things to see before come with a conclusion about this one.

Pythagoris says 46 runs saved will result in 5 wins.   I don not expect Rosario, Buxton and Sano/Arcia/Kepler to be any less than Rosario, Hicks and Hunter and if it is Kepler I expect it to be much better.   Who knows if it is truly 46 runs but if it is then how can anyone say saving 46 runs does not help the pitching staff?

[Thrylos]

 

Pythagoris says 46 runs saved will result in 5 wins.

 

Nope.  Pythagoras said that in a right triangle, the square of the hypotenuse equals the sum of the squares of the two othogonal sides, about 2300 years before  the first baseball game ever played.

 

Bill James said the above and called his formula Pythagorian expectation, for some reason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I pet dogs even though I'm allergic to them. Still doesn't make it sensible.

I imagine Sano playing the OF might, at times, resemble a man with allergies trying to pet a dog.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I imagine Sano playing the OF might, at times, resemble a man with allergies trying to pet a dog.

 

I imagine that too, with the man also trying to ride a unicycle and look straight into the sun.  That's the sort of misadventures I'm bracing for.