Keith Law Ranks Twins Minor League System #3, Seven in Top 100

[bluechipper]

Yeah the hand wringing, worrying, and wanting to trade Stewart on these boards leaves me a bit puzzled.

I think part of it is because the Twins really haven't ever drafted HS pitchers in the first round, so we aren't accustomed to the longer development curves, Stewart is still our best bet in the system for a bonafide "ace" IMO. I think he has a big year this year and cracks a lot of top 15 lists prior to 2017. The strikeouts will come, and even thus far his other numbers are very promising.

Berrios had over 9 k/9 and other great numbers at triple a, and you still can't give him the nod as best bet to be an ace? What more do you want?

[gunnarthor]

 

Berrios had over 9 k/9 and other great numbers at triple a, and you still can't give him the nod as best bet to be an ace? What more do you want?

He's too short.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There is no way in hell I would give ESPN the satisfaction of extracting even $15 from me for content I can get for free other places.  I've already read enough blurbs here and other places that I can easily fill in the blanks.  Unless someone is holding back something really juicy, like only Klaw has noticed Stewart eats Special K with Banana every morning, and the last pitcher to do that was Pedro Martinez.  Come on, spill the beans.  I want the "inside" scoop!!

 

 The fact you have to pay for it doesn't make it any more valid.

 

On the other hand, if ESPN would have asked me for $15 a year to read ad-free Grantland, I would have happily obliged, if it would have meant its survival.

 

I can't disagree with this sentiment more, that content should be free. That was the worst decision ever on the internet. Artists and people like KLAW are not making money like they should be, imo. 

 

Grantland died because ESPN and Simmons hated each other.......it wasn't the money.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It was never even a real thing, it was a tongue in cheek meme back in the BYTO days. Law used to bash the twins for all the pitch to contact guys (like when Blackburn was our number 1 prospect) and most everyone agreed with him. It was just a fun bit.

 

You must not follow KLAW on line much, because "you hate my team" is a real thing for him. One of the posts yesterday was hilarious.

[DaveW]

 

Grantland died because ESPN and Simmons hated each other.......it wasn't the money.

No it definitely was the money, Grantland was bleeding money left and right. The amount the paid their writers was falling well short of anything they could make up ad revenue wise, their traffic numbers were never that great either.

 

Can't do that at a public company.

[DaveW]

 

 

I can't disagree with this sentiment more, that content should be free. That was the worst decision ever on the internet. Artists and people like KLAW are not making money like they should be, imo. 

 

Grantland died because ESPN and Simmons hated each other.......it wasn't the money.

Also Law makes plenty of money, page views = money.

It's no different then radio and even print, both of those are mostly "free" and the money comes from advertising.

[DaveW]

 

Berrios had over 9 k/9 and other great numbers at triple a, and you still can't give him the nod as best bet to be an ace? What more do you want?

Berrios projects to be more of a number 2.

[bluechipper]

 

Berrios projects to be more of a number 2.

That's probably true, but I think he has a much better chance at becoming an ace than Kohl Stewart. Stewart looks more like a middle of the rotation guy if he's pitching 89-92 and topping out at 93 and not striking guys out, but hopefully still getting a ton of ground balls. And maybe his natural talent allows him to regain some of the velocity and figures out how to get more into at least the 7 k/9 range.

[Thrylos]

 

That's probably true, but I think he has a much better chance at becoming an ace than Kohl Stewart. Stewart looks more like a middle of the rotation guy if he's pitching 89-92 and topping out at 93 and not striking guys out, but hopefully still getting a ton of ground balls. And maybe his natural talent allows him to regain some of the velocity and figures out how to get more into at least the 7 k/9 range.

 

 

The velocity is not the problem, the results are the problem.  Greg Maddux had Tommy Milone/Scott Diamond type velocity, but he had the pitches and knew how to pitch.
 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Berrios projects to be more of a number 2.

 

Sure, but Berrios still has some percentage chance to be more than that, and I have to imagine that chance is greater than Stewart's at the moment.  They're only a few months apart in age, and their differences in performance and possibly health are quite evident.

[bluechipper]

 

The velocity is not the problem, the results are the problem.  Greg Maddux had Tommy Milone/Scott Diamond type velocity, but he had the pitches and knew how to pitch.
 

If Stewart can locate like Greg Maddux, then velocity isn't the problem, but he doesn't have much margin for error if he doesn't have movement and great location.

 

BTW, Muddux had a 2.86 ERA in the minors with a 5.7 K/9, compared to Stewart's 2.82 ERA and 6.0 K/9. So there's hope!

[Seth Stohs]

 

Berrios projects to be more of a number 2.

 

That's true. I'm not sure why people seem to think that's a bad thing somehow. I mean, that's one of the top 40 pitchers in baseball or so... that's pretty good.

 

But, the numbers don't really matter. I look at it as he is a guy who, if he makes it and becomes what we think, will be a guy we'd be happy to have starting playoff games. 

 

Also, he's ranked #26 overall... that's not a slight at all... That means he would be the #1 prospect in many organizations. Law isn't slighting him at all. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Sure, but Berrios still has some percentage chance to be more than that, and I have to imagine that chance is greater than Stewart's at the moment.  They're only a few months apart in age, and their differences in performance and possibly health are quite evident.

 

Sure... and  Berrios was #26 and Stewart was at #53, so yes... according to Keith Law, there is a better chance of Berrios becoming a #1 (or a star, or a whatever) than he thinks Stewart can be at this moment.

[alarp33]

 

The velocity is not the problem, the results are the problem.  Greg Maddux had Tommy Milone/Scott Diamond type velocity, but he had the pitches and knew how to pitch.
 

 

You are only worried about results but think Stewart is not a prospect? His career era is 2.82.  Also, he touches 96 so I'm not sure why Maddux, Milone, Diamond are comparisons

[alarp33]

 

Sure... and  Berrios was #26 and Stewart was at #53, so yes... according to Keith Law, there is a better chance of Berrios becoming a #1 (or a star, or a whatever) than he thinks Stewart can be at this moment.

 

I would actually bet that Klaw would agree Stewart has the higher ceiling, which is why he's ranked 53rd even though its most projection at this point.  Berrios has the much higher floor. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I would actually bet that Klaw would agree Stewart has the higher ceiling, which is why he's ranked 53rd even though its most projection at this point.  Berrios has the much higher floor. 

 

My bad... yes, I agree with this statement. 

[Thrylos]

 

You are only worried about results but think Stewart is not a prospect?

 

Of course I think that Stewart is a prospect.  Here he is in my Twins' prospect list, along with the reasons he was ranked where he was ranked.   I just think that Law has him way too high.    He should not be higher than Jay and Gonsalves, IMO.  That's what I am arguing.   Of course he is a prospect.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

BTW, Muddux had a 2.86 ERA in the minors with a 5.7 K/9, compared to Stewart's 2.82 ERA and 6.0 K/9. So there's hope!

I know these type of comparisons are just for fun, but don't forget context.  Maddux's minor league K rates were roughly league average, and his run prevention (including unearned runs) was better than league average.  Stewart fell well short of both of his league averages last year, in the FSL.  (Also note that Maddux had compiled that entire minor league record, half of which was at AA/AAA, by the same age that Stewart is now!)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would actually bet that Klaw would agree Stewart has the higher ceiling, which is why he's ranked 53rd even though its most projection at this point.  Berrios has the much higher floor. 

 

My bad... yes, I agree with this statement. 

I can't see any type of ceiling that Stewart has that Berrios wouldn't at least match at this point.  Whatever slim odds that Stewart has to emerge as the next Greg Maddux, Berrios would at least match them to be the next Pedro Martinez, no?

[alarp33]

 

I can't see any type of ceiling that Stewart has that Berrios wouldn't at least match at this point.  Whatever slim odds that Stewart has to emerge as the next Greg Maddux, Berrios would at least match them to be the next Pedro Martinez, no?

 

I'm not sure why or how Greg Maddux made it into this thread, seeing as Stewart pitches nothing like him.  

 

I think it's probably as simple as, with the stuff each has, both great, if they put it all together, the guy who is 6'3" has the higher ceiling than the guy who is 5'11".  Yes there is Pedro, but sub 6' RH starters are few and far between

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think it's probably as simple as, 6'3" athletic, strong pitchers who can touch 96-97, have more Ace potential than guys that are 5'11".  Yes, there's Pedro Martinez who was a shorter RH pitcher, but those guys are few and far between.  

I would hope that after 2-3 seasons of pro experience, we'd be past using height as the primary determinant of ace potential.

 

Whatever percent chance that Stewart still has to be the next Roger Clemens (for example) thanks to his height can't possibly be greater than Berrios' chance to be Pedro due to performance, at this point in time.

[alarp33]

 

I would hope that after 2-3 seasons of pro experience, we'd be past using height as the primary determinant of ace potential.

 

Whatever percent chance that Stewart still has to be the next Roger Clemens (for example) thanks to his height can't possibly be greater than Berrios' chance to be Pedro due to performance, at this point in time.

 

You'd have to ask Keith that.  I will go as far as predicting Berrios does not become the next Pedro Martinez, and Kohl Stewart does not become the next Roger Clemens.  But there have been a lot more "Aces" built like Clemens than "Aces" built like Pedro

[Thrylos]

 

I can't see any type of ceiling that Stewart has that Berrios wouldn't at least match at this point.  Whatever slim odds that Stewart has to emerge as the next Greg Maddux, Berrios would at least match them to be the next Pedro Martinez, no?

 

Different kinds of pitchers with different kind of pitches.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You'd have to ask Keith that.  I will go as far as predicting Berrios does not become the next Pedro Martinez, and Kohl Stewart does not become the next Roger Clemens.  But there have been a lot more "Aces" built like Clemens than "Aces" built like Pedro

Again, that's not what we're arguing, though.  If this was 2012-2013 and you want to say that their height/build means that much, fine.  But here we are, 2-3 years later, and Berrios has quickly adapted, stayed healthy, and dominated, and while Stewart has modestly "held his own" he's actually regressed in performance with some questions of injury, all over the same ages.  That easily balances out any generic historical indicators about their height/build, not only when looking at the floor but also in any meaningful estimate of their ceiling.  It would seem most prospect evaluators other than Law agree with me too.

 

Nothing against Stewart -- he's still a fine prospect to have and he may well reach that ceiling yet, and I am rooting for him to do so.  There's no shame in losing a comparison to Berrios right now.

[DaveW]

That's true. I'm not sure why people seem to think that's a bad thing somehow. I mean, that's one of the top 40 pitchers in baseball or so... that's pretty good.

 

But, the numbers don't really matter. I look at it as he is a guy who, if he makes it and becomes what we think, will be a guy we'd be happy to have starting playoff games.

 

Also, he's ranked #26 overall... that's not a slight at all... That means he would be the #1 prospect in many organizations. Law isn't slighting him at all.

I actually don't think it's a bad thing at all! Finding a true #2 in MLB is not easy, and those type of pitchers end up getting 55-80 million dollars on the free agent market!

 

I hope he puts up Garza like production, however people that assume he will be an "ace" may end up dissapointed (when they shouldn't be)

 

Agreed, Law doesn't "hate him" he just simply states he isn't some shut down top tier ace (which are super rare anyways)

[Mike Sixel]

Top 10s for each team are up today.

 

In addition to the above....Gonsalves, Burdi, Meyer make up the last 3 in the top 10. The overview talks almost completely about all the RP in the system and how hard they throw.

 

If you aren't paying for this, I don't get it......

[alarp33]

 

Top 10s for each team are up today.

 

In addition to the above....Gonsalves, Burdi, Meyer make up the last 3 in the top 10. The overview talks almost completely about all the RP in the system and how hard they throw.

 

If you aren't paying for this, I don't get it......

 

Another note for the ABW cheerleaders... Klaw did not have him among his top 19 Twins prospects

[gunnarthor]

 

Another note for the ABW cheerleaders... Klaw did not have him among his top 19 Twins prospects

Interesting.  Did he have any thoughts on Cabbage and Thorpe?  

[gunnarthor]

 

Top 10s for each team are up today.

 

In addition to the above....Gonsalves, Burdi, Meyer make up the last 3 in the top 10. The overview talks almost completely about all the RP in the system and how hard they throw.

 

If you aren't paying for this, I don't get it......

I'm surprised he's that high on Gonsalves.  Good.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Interesting.  Did he have any thoughts on Cabbage and Thorpe?  

 

No, the blurbs are short. I think only RP were mentioned after the list.