Kenta Maeda versus Kris Johnson

[Hrbowski]

With the news that Kenta Maeda has asked to be posted, and with Fangraphs speculating teams could spend anywhere between 65 million and 127 million I started thinking about former Twin Kris Johnson and his success pitching in Japan this year as Maeda's teammate. Maeda went 15-8 with a 2.09 ERA and 175 strikeouts in 206.1 innings pitched while Johnson went 14-7 with a 1.85 ERA and 150 strikeouts in 194.1 innings pitched. Does anyone think that selling Kris Johnson to the Carp was a bad idea? It seems that he had a very similar season to a pitcher worth somewhere around 90 million with a posting fee, and we could have had him for much less at $500,000.

[formerly33]

That or let this be a warning to GMs concerning Maeda.

[DuluthFan]

You need to read/dig a little deeper.

 

Maeda is 4 years younger and has put up similar numbers for the past 4 years in a row and 5 of the last six.

 

Johnson put up those numbers once. He has never come close to those numbers in his 9 minor league and 2 major league seasons.

 

 

[Thrylos]

Yeah.  One more thing:  Kris Johnson's problems were:  a. finding the strike zone (career 3.5 BB/9) b. improving his fastball to complement his almost plus cutter/slider and c. get a third reliable pitch.   

 

If you look at this season, his BB/9 was 3.1, which means that control did not improve.   I suspect that a above average cutter and an average minus fastball might get a lot of outs in Japan.  Not in the majors thought...

[nicksaviking]

Yeah I have to say those numbers only make me cautious of Meada, not regret Johnson.

[bird]

Ah, the irony.

[Rosterman]

That's right. Kris Johnson could be available for a song!

 

[Darius]

I just don't see Maeda being a huge success in the MLB.  

 

However, I don't think any of us know enough about foreign baseball leagues (the NPB in this case) to garner any meaningful conclusions based on statistics.  Way too many variables.  

 

At best, we're all just guessing based on comparables (Park to Choi, etc.).  At worst, based on absolutely nothing.

 

 

 

 

[Darius]

 

You need to read/dig a little deeper.

 

Maeda is 4 years younger and has put up similar numbers for the past 4 years in a row and 5 of the last six.

 

Johnson put up those numbers once. He has never come close to those numbers in his 9 minor league and 2 major league seasons.

 

Digging a little deeper, in this case, is futile.

 

Johnson's minor league seasons in America can't be compared to Maeda's seasons in Japan.  It's like comparing the Canadian Football League to the Arena League, or something like that.  There is no way of knowing if there is any correlation between those in relation to the NFL, for example.  

 

Also, I'm not really sure age means anything when you're comparing a 31 year old to a near 28 year old.  Theoretically, they should both be at, or close to, their physical prime (innings pitched, etc. notwithstanding).  A 26 year old to a 21-22 year old, and you may be on to something, but that's not the case here.  

 

All you can take away from any of this is:  1)  Johnson has 2 MLB seasons, so you probably know what you have in him, which isn't much at the MLB level.  2)  Maeda is a complete mystery, regardless of how many successful seasons he's posted in the NPB in relation to Johnson. 

[DuluthFan]

 

Digging a little deeper, in this case, is futile.

 

All you can take away from any of this is:  1)  Johnson has 2 MLB seasons, so you probably know what you have in him, which isn't much at the MLB level.  2)  Maeda is a complete mystery, regardless of how many successful seasons he's posted in the NPB in relation to Johnson. 

 

The question posted by the thread starter is whether Maeda is worth the projected money that is being talked about when you consider Johnson put up a similar season last year and Johnson is/was only worth about $500K.

 

Would you offer Johnson $90 million based on his one excellent year in Japan? Probably not when you look at his career in the US. He never approached the numbers that he put up in Japan. A fluke year or pitching against inferior competition?

 

Looking at Maeda's numbers, he has repeated those numbers several years in a row. Is the Japanese league comparable to the MLB? Probably not, but it could compare to AA or AAA. If so, then when you factor in his age, Maeda could be considered a prospect with upside. How much? That is the question.

 

[old nurse]

 

That's right. Kris Johnson could be available for a song!

[Seth Stohs]

 

Does anyone think that selling Kris Johnson to the Carp was a bad idea?.

 

No.

[Seth Stohs]

 

With the news that Kenta Maeda has asked to be posted, and with Fangraphs speculating teams could spend anywhere between 65 million and 127 million I started thinking about former Twin Kris Johnson and his success pitching in Japan this year as Maeda's teammate. Maeda went 15-8 with a 2.09 ERA and 175 strikeouts in 206.1 innings pitched while Johnson went 14-7 with a 1.85 ERA and 150 strikeouts in 194.1 innings pitched. Does anyone think that selling Kris Johnson to the Carp was a bad idea? It seems that he had a very similar season to a pitcher worth somewhere around 90 million with a posting fee, and we could have had him for much less at $500,000.

 

However, this is very interesting. Johnson could have been a decent back-end of the rotation guy in the right opportunity.

 

I've always said the difference between a #4 or #5 starter in the big leagues and a #2/3 pitcher in AAA is an opportunity. 

[Andrew]

The question posted by the thread starter is whether Maeda is worth the projected money that is being talked about when you consider Johnson put up a similar season last year and Johnson is/was only worth about $500K.

 

Would you offer Johnson $90 million based on his one excellent year in Japan? Probably not when you look at his career in the US. He never approached the numbers that he put up in Japan. A fluke year or pitching against inferior competition?

 

Looking at Maeda's numbers, he has repeated those numbers several years in a row. Is the Japanese league comparable to the MLB? Probably not, but it could compare to AA or AAA. If so, then when you factor in his age, Maeda could be considered a prospect with upside. How much? That is the question.

Most people I have asked have said that Japan is AAAA and that KBO is AA+. I don't know if that is entirely accurate but that's what I've been hearing.

[Willihammer]

IMO we are well past the point of reliability in NPB stats like Maeda's put up. Barring injury, he will earn his paycheck. A solid 2-3 starter.

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs has an article up today from some other site, projecting the best young pitchers in baseball......Maeda isn't listed because he isn't young (or he's not that good). But, other non-US pitchers are.