Article: TD Midseason Top Prospects: #2 Miguel Sano

[d-mac]

 

Yeah.   I would appreciate some brutal honesty. 

 

"We believe we have players in the minors right now that would have been promoted already had it been 2011-2014, but we are at a point right now where we have more talented players than roster spots.  It is a good problem to have"

 

Yeah, what exactly is the harm with that? It's a good problem to have.

[d-mac]

 

 

But he's proven by the eye test that he's clearly MLB ready in the OF, he actually appears to be on the verge of elite CF defense, and his 0.5 dWAR in only 11 games confirms that assessment- he can still be a net help to the Twins if they're still in the hunt upon his return.  Regardless of how the Twins are doing, I think he will be best served going forward by having the opportunity to get close to 200 MLB PAs to close out the season.

 

I don't think CF defense was his problem. He always had major league ready defense when he was drafted. However, I wouldn't consider an OPS of .501 with a 38.5% strikeout rate to be ready. I don't care how good of a prospect he is- no major leaguer can be successful with that kind of batting line. And for that matter nearly every ball he put in play was hit weakly on the ground- evidenced by his 61.9% groundball and 18.2% hard hit rates. Major League infielders are much better than the ones he saw in the minors, he isn't going to get by using his elite speed to beat out everything hit to the left side of the infield up here. His bat needs more time in AAA. It is abundantly clear. 

Edited June 30, 2015 by d-mac

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ya, taking 2 months off from playing 3B every day is not, imo, going to cripple his career. You might get 2-3 chances a game....

I actually wouldn't want him taking 2 months off from 3B completely right now -- but he wouldn't have to.  He could get at least 1-2 starts a week at 3B, and more if/when Plouffe gets dinged up (or Mauer, with Plouffe sliding over to 1B).

 

And if he's lost at the plate, send him back down to AAA where he can play 3B every day again.

[d-mac]

 

At the time of his promotion to the big leagues, Vargas was 23 and had an OPS of .832 in AA.  He had 17 HR in 97 games. Those 97 games were his only above A ball.  His OPS over his minor career is .856.  He has never sniffed a top 100 prospect list. 

 

Sano is 22, has an OPS of .918 in AA.  He has played 133 games above A ball (in addition to winter league). He has 15 HR in 66 games.  His minors OPS is .937 and has consistently been a top 23 prospect the last four years, peaking at #4.

 

What told Terry that Vargas was ready and Sano is not?

 

Probably the same people that told him Aaron Hicks was ready after the 2012 season. Or that Brian Duensing should have been tendered a contract. Or advised Bill Smith to trade for Matt Crapps and give away J.J. Hardy in order to sign Nishioka. 

 

I could do this all day.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think CF defense was his problem. He always had major league ready defense when he was drafted. However, I wouldn't consider an OPS of .501 with a 38.5% strikeout rate to be ready.

That tiny sample isn't particularly meaningful, either way.  Discount his debut and his last game (where he was apparently battling the thumb injury) and the OPS climbs to .635 and the K rate drops to 29%.

 

Obviously, he's no star at the plate yet, and he may not even be ready to hold his own at the plate in MLB, but 39 PA's is probably too little to really conclude that, for a player with his track record and pedigree.

[jokin]

 

I don't think CF defense was his problem. He always had major league ready defense when he was drafted. However, I wouldn't consider an OPS of .501 with a 38.5% strikeout rate to be ready. I don't care how good of a prospect he is- no major leaguer can be successful with that kind of batting line. And for that matter nearly every ball he put in play was hit weakly on the ground- evidenced by his 61.9% groundball and 18.2% hard hit rates. Major League infielders are much better than the ones he saw in the minors, he isn't going to get by using his elite speed to beat out everything hit to the left side of the infield up here. His bat needs more time in AAA. It is abundantly clear. 

 

But that's just it, he's shown he didn't have to hit to still make a difference.  And at the plate we're only talking about 30-some PAs, most of which were against some of the best pitchers in the game, and some while playing with a significant hand injury. That's no where near clear enough to make sweeping conclusions.  Ryan himself noted that Buck's track record has been as a slow starter at the plate at EVERY LEVEL he's played at.  When he's back and fully healthy, let's give him at least 100 PAs, and preferably 200 before a decision is made that he needs to go back down to the minors.

Edited June 30, 2015 by jokin

[d-mac]

 

That tiny sample isn't particularly meaningful, either way.  Discount his debut and his last game (where he was apparently battling the thumb injury) and the OPS climbs to .635 and the K rate drops to 29%.

 

Obviously, he's no star at the plate yet, and he may not even be ready to hold his own at the plate in MLB, but 39 PA's is probably too little to really conclude that, for a player with his track record and pedigree.

 

You are absolutely right, it is a small sample size. But the eye test matches the data set at this point. And it's disconcerting. 

[d-mac]

 

But that's just it, he's shown he didn't have to hit to still make a difference.  And at the plate we're only talking about 30-some PAs, most of which were against some of the best pitchers in the game, and some while playing with a significant hand injury. That's no where near clear enough to make sweeping conclusions.  Ryan himself noted that Buck's track record has been as a slow starter at the plate at EVERY LEVEL he's played at.  When he's back and fully healthy, let's give him at least 100 PAs, and preferably 200 before a decision is made that he needs to go back down to the minors.

 

But he was a negative fWAR player in his first taste in the majors. So I'd disagree about "not having to hit to make a difference." I'm just worried that he'll struggle so much because he's not ready with the bat that it will ultimately harm his development and we end up with Aaron Hicks, part deux. Plus, this team isn't a real contender this year- so there's no reason to throw Buxton to the wolves just yet when we have Hicks (granted he's healthy), Rosario, and Robinson to fill in in center for a few months while Buxton develops in AAA. 

[tobi0040]

 

That tiny sample isn't particularly meaningful, either way.  Discount his debut and his last game (where he was apparently battling the thumb injury) and the OPS climbs to .635 and the K rate drops to 29%.

 

Obviously, he's no star at the plate yet, and he may not even be ready to hold his own at the plate in MLB, but 39 PA's is probably too little to really conclude that, for a player with his track record and pedigree.

 

Yeah.  I don't put any stock whatsoever in 11 games.

 

Thru 15 games this year in AA he was hitting .190 with a total of 4 XBH.

 

 

[jokin]

 

But he was a negative fWAR player in his first taste in the majors. I'm just worried that he'll struggle so much because he's not ready with the bat that it will ultimately harm his development and we end up with Aaron Hicks, part deux.

 

 

And he's a 0.3 bWAR player in his first taste in the majors.  Trust B-Ref!

 

And trust me also when I say, "Buxton ain't Hicks!"

[tobi0040]

 

But he was a negative fWAR player in his first taste in the majors. So I'd disagree about "not having to hit to make a difference." I'm just worried that he'll struggle so much because he's not ready with the bat that it will ultimately harm his development and we end up with Aaron Hicks, part deux. Plus, this team isn't a real contender this year- so there's no reason to throw Buxton to the wolves just yet when we have Hicks (granted he's healthy), Rosario, and Robinson to fill in in center for a few months while Buxton develops in AAA. 

 

You can look at Hick's numbers in the minors and see the bust potential.  He had one really good year, which was the year prior to being brought up.  Hicks was never a top prospect, top guy in all of the majors. Not even close.

 

Hicks was ranked in the top 100 because of his athleticism.  Buxton is rated where he is because his freaking athleticism led to really good numbers.

 

 

Edited June 30, 2015 by tobi0040

[John Kelsey]

What has Jorge Polanco done to prove that he is MLB ready?

 

He has a .745 OPS in AA to go along with below average SS defense. 

 

He might be a better option than Santana, because Santana has been the worst player in the majors this year, but I'd be much more comfortable with Escobar there than Polanco. 

 

For the record, I agree that Sano, Kepler, and Berrios, deserve to be promoted but I don't see it with Polanco.  

 

 

[jokin]

 

 Plus, this team isn't a real contender this year- so there's no reason to throw Buxton to the wolves just yet when we have Hicks (granted he's healthy), Rosario, and Robinson to fill in in center for a few months while Buxton develops in AAA. 

 

Your supposition about their contender-status may prove to be true (I'm in the same camp as you on this one), but the Central and maybe one of the Wild Cards are as up for grabs as they have been in years.  Lots of flawed teams in the AL, so many that are just one injury away from taking a huge step back to the pack-  only 85 wins might very well win the division/grab a Wild Card berth.

 

Rosario in CF already missed at least one ball last night that Buxton would have had a decent shot at making a play on.  Rosario in LF and Buxton in CF is the best possible defensive lineup that the Twins can put out there.  Assuming that he can get back to 100% health and AAA rehab readiness before July turns to August, I would give Buxton at least 100 PAs (another 15-20 games) before banishing him to AAA. 

[d-mac]

 

And he's a 0.3 bWAR player in his first taste in the majors.  Trust B-Ref!

 

And trust me also when I say, "Buxton ain't Hicks!"

 

Pshhh! I use fangraphs. 

 

And you're right about not* being Hicks. Switch hitting is a b***.

Edited June 30, 2015 by d-mac

[drjim]

 

What has Jorge Polanco done to prove that he is MLB ready?

 

He has a .745 OPS in AA to go along with below average SS defense. 

 

He might be a better option than Santana, because Santana has been the worst player in the majors this year, but I'd be much more comfortable with Escobar there than Polanco. 

 

For the record, I agree that Sano, Kepler, and Berrios, deserve to be promoted but I don't see it with Polanco.  

 

I'm especially skeptical of an opinion that combines the statement that Polanco is ready with the desire to have Buxton go back to AAA. 

 

Putting these guys in the majors is fine if you are willing to live with the growing pains. And to put them all in at the same time really makes the team susceptible to stretches of bad at bats. Stagger them a little - starting with Sano.

[twinssouth]

Miguel's gotta be feeling a little lonely now that his buddies (Berrios & Buxton) have moved on.

[tobi0040]

 

Miguel's gotta be feeling a little lonely now that his buddies (Berrios & Buxton) have moved on.

 

Rochester released their 3B.  Guessing he is re-united with Berrios shortly, with Buxton potentially rehabbing there.

[Dantes929]

 

Miguel Sano isn't being blocked by Trevor Plouffe at this point; it's Kennys Vargas. The Twins have been waiting to see if Vargas can get back some of that Big Papi look that he had last season, but so far it's not really happening. For some reason Vargas has toned down his power swings from both sides of the plate. Is it the Twins hitting philosophy, the same thing David Ortiz complained about? It could be that Bruno is trying to make Vargas more like Dozier, that is, more selective about which situations to unleash the home run swing. The down side is that Vargas doesn't look terrifying anymore. He looks like a poor imitation of Dozier.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Funny how people see the same thing and draw different conclusions.  From my view Vargas looked very balanced and under control last year and swung according to where he was pitched.    (not trying to go the other way but able to if that is where the pitch was).   This year it looks like he is swinging much harder and trying to pull the ball more with poor results.    The "Twins Way" is a myth, IMO

[nicksaviking]

 

Rochester released their 3B.  Guessing he is re-united with Berrios shortly, with Buxton potentially rehabbing there.

 

Yeah, Ryan Wheeler was released.  I can only think of one reason why they would do that. 

 

I have to say that I do feel a little guilty about being happy that a guy was released.

[TRex]

 

Yeah, Ryan Wheeler was released.  I can only think of one reason why they would do that. 

 

I have to say that I do feel a little guilty about being happy that a guy was released.

You don't think it might not be possible that:

 

the only reason he chose to not to hang up his cleats (or chose the Twins) after being released by the Angels is because he wanted to play with his little brother... and now the little brother is in Chattanooga?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You don't think it might not be possible that:

 

the only reason he chose to not to hang up his cleats (or chose the Twins) after being released by the Angels is because he wanted to play with his little brother... and now the little brother is in Chattanooga?

Ryan is still only 26 years old, just two years old than Jason.  I doubt he's looking to retire.  And his recent performances have been questionable enough that I doubt he would ask for his release because of his brother.

[Ncgo4]

Our Mr. Ryan is mostly interested in protecting Mr. Ryan. To say that Sano is not yet MLB bat ready makes one wonder how in the world he can make the case that all of those .250 hitters he now has in his lineup are MLB ready? The current lineup is full of Terry Ryan mistakes and to call up Sano means that someone has to go on the bench highlighting one of his mistakes. I'd make the same argument about Max Kepler.

 

Give us another two weeks of backsliding in the standings and people will be calling for his head.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Hoping they don't "see how he does" in Rochester. AAA is more of a step below MLB than it is a step above AA. Buuutttt, I'm probably the 90th person to make that statement in this thread, so I guess I'll just hang up and listen.

[drjim]

 

Our Mr. Ryan is mostly interested in protecting Mr. Ryan. To say that Sano is not yet MLB bat ready makes one wonder how in the world he can make the case that all of those .250 hitters he now has in his lineup are MLB ready? The current lineup is full of Terry Ryan mistakes and to call up Sano means that someone has to go on the bench highlighting one of his mistakes. I'd make the same argument about Max Kepler.

Give us another two weeks of backsliding in the standings and people will be calling for his head.

 

I think we can all agree, without hesitation, that this is true.

[TRex]

 

Ryan is still only 26 years old, just two years old than Jason.  I doubt he's looking to retire.  And his recent performances have been questionable enough that I doubt he would ask for his release because of his brother.

I brought this up only because there was an article out there that explicitly said the reason he chose the Twins and Rochester was because Jason was there, and he had other choices. With his brother gone and the Sano/Plouffe combo manning 3rd, he may have asked for, and been granted, his release (although as you say, he is young enough to seek a different team rather than retire).