Dream Trade Target: Aroldis Champman

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not sure I agree there.  It is entirely possible to have a guy playing well in the high minors (and well in his injury call ups) who is blocked by better guys.  That's the guy you trade. 

 

the line I responded to was "find out who the good ones are, and trade the others", there was nothing there about being good and blocked. Or maybe I read it wrong?

[gocgo]

I don't see where Arcia really would appeal to a NL team like the Reds.  As you guys have pointed out, his defense is a negative.  His only value is a lefty bat that can hit the long ball.  If we are looking for a suitor for Arcia, we need to find a team in need of some pop off the bench...a DH...some lefty power...oh, wait, that's us!   Don't get me wrong, I would move Arcia in a trade if I could, but I don't see the Reds wanting him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Also, it's mildly humorous that people keep using the word "middling starter" to refute my point, yet my original quote actually said this:

 

 

 

 

Somebody find the word "middling" in that post and get back to me.

 

What does "less talented" mean?

 

Because they Twins have 5 starters now, and Santana coming, and Milone, and Berrios, and 2-4 other guys in AA/AAA that might be number 5 types.

 

What less talented MLB starter would you give up assets to get, if you already have 6-8 starters?

[Mike Sixel]

 

So you want to get Chapman and waste him as the 8th inning guy?    Not sure that this part makes much sense... 

 

and even if he did, what is "not much" for an 8th inning guy?  Even Kepler alone would be too much.

 

I have no idea what this means.....how is using a guy in the 8th inning a waste?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What does "less talented" mean?

 

Because they Twins have 5 starters now, and Santana coming, and Milone, and Berrios, and 2-4 other guys in AA/AAA that might be number 5 types.

 

What less talented MLB starter would you give up assets to get, if you already have 6-8 starters?

"Less talented" can mean a lot of things when you're comparing the player to someone who has probably been the best reliever in baseball over the past few seasons. In this case - maybe I didn't make this clear enough - it means "someone pretty good at baseball but not elite". My later Denard Span example is a good representation of that player.

 

And again, I'm not advocating the Twins to go out and get a starter. It was merely an example of how a reliever, no matter how good, has a limited impact on the season.

[Cap'n Piranha]

15.3 k/9 in a "down year" is something I will take all day! His h/9 is way up because of an unlucky .391 BABIP, and I like our prospects as much as anyone, but the reality is there is maybe 2 or 3 RP in the MAJORS right now who are as 90% as effective as Chapman, we have one in Perkins but we know how rare that is.

 

Saying Tonkin could be a 90% Chapman is almost as disingenuous as stating that Arcia could be 90% of a Giancarlo Stanton etc.

I never said "down year", I said his numbers are down, which is an unequivocal fact. Maybe it's just a string of bad luck, a bunch of duck snorts and Texas leaguers that are upping his h/9. Or maybe, after 5 years in the majors, and who knows how many years in Cuba, of putting great strain on his arm, he's entering the decline phase. If that's the case, I don't want to give up prospects and pay 15 million dollars to watch him get worse

[Mike Sixel]

Well, they have holes in the bullpen, catcher, SS, and CF (and somehow DH).

 

They have lots of DH/1B types that will be wasted in the minors while Mauer is here. You can choose to just have them lose all their value, or you can deal them.

 

They aren't getting a CF, because you have Buxton. They shouldn't go get a DH, because they have Hunter and Arcia and Vargas and Sano.

 

that leaves bullpen, catcher and SS and maybe RF I guess......

[kab21]

 

You're the first person to bring up WAR in this thread.

 

But in doing so, you kinda made my point for me. Chapman is a 3 WAR player. That's pretty good.

 

Over the past 3 1/2 years, Denard Span has averaged a little over 3.5 WAR per season. He was traded straight up for Alex Meyer, yet you just claimed it would take much more than Meyer and Arcia - two top 100 prospects - to pry Chapman away from the Reds.

 

Reliever values are inflated for what they bring the team. Yes, they pitch important innings but no matter how important the innings, they still only pitch 1 in 20 team innings. Unlike a position player, they are one-sided. They pitch defense for an inning. They have no offensive value. Under those restrictions, there is a limited influence one can have on the game. It doesn't matter how good you are as a pitcher, if you only pitch 1 in 20 innings and don't swing a bat, your overall influence on the game isn't going to compare to a good position player. That seems kinda like common sense to me, not advanced analytics.

 

The Nationals got three years of cost-controlled Denard Span for Alex Meyer. If the Twins can't get 1.5 years of non cost-controlled Aroldis Chapman for considerably less than 2011 Alex Meyer, the Reds should be laughed out of the room.

You completely missed the point.  fangraphs has used WAR to show that RP'ers aren't that valuable.  glen Perkins for example is a one WAR player.  Chapman at 3 WAR is insanely valuable.  And I don't think fangraphs ever added in a leverage factor.  I know they talked about it and wrote a couple of articles but I don't think they added to the WAR calculation.  Chapman mostly pitches in high leverage situations whereas a player like Span compiles his WAR by playing at all times regardless of the situation.  Thus WAR for RP'ers underrate them a little.  In addition to that creating a dominant group of 7th/8th/9th inning RP'ers is a huge advantage for contending teams.

 

Additionally 2015 Meyer is not considered a top 100 prospect especially in trades.  His value has cratered since he has shoulder injury concerns, he is a complete mess this year and he's 25.5 yrs old.  Comparing vs his high upside self is meaningless.  Arcia's value is going to be all over the map.  He destroyed the minors and has shown little ability to adjust to the MLB level other than connecting on a few pitches and hitting them really far.  You would have to find the team that really believed in him to take him as a centerpiece in a major trade.

 

The most important thing that people need to think about when suggesting names is would you be interested in those prospects.  Who in their right mind would be interested in Meyer right now?  He's a buy low candidate that you pick up for a solid 7th/8th inning guy.  Same goes for Arcia.  There's a reason these names were brought up in the first place. 

[Willihammer]

No offense but the idea of trading for a marquee talent like Chapman seems uninspired. He is at the apex of his career (or maybe a tad past it). I much prefer targeting the NEXT great reliever. I suggested Matt Barnes of the Red Sox who was a failed starter but looks pretty good as a reliever IMHO. Someone along those lines would definitely cost less in terms of prospects and salary and maybe even work out better for the team.

[Mike Sixel]

 

No offense but the idea of trading for a marquee talent like Chapman seems uninspired. He is at the apex of his career (or maybe a tad past it). I much prefer targeting the NEXT great reliever. I suggested Matt Barnes of the Red Sox who was a failed starter but looks pretty good as a reliever IMHO. Someone along those lines would definitely cost less in terms of prospects and salary and maybe even work out better for the team.

 

What are the odds you can identify the next great RP? I mean, ya, that's a better idea, but how do you find them? And, who is going to trade one if they know he will be great and cheap for the future?

[Steve Lein]

 

Arcia is one of the few LH hitters we have who can hit 25-30 HR and is still only 24.  Way too early to give up on him for 1.5 years of Chapman.  

 

While I'm not advocating trading for Chapman (definitely a pipedream, for any team in MLB), this note about Arcia is one of the reasons I would trade him.

 

Because of those attributes, he actually has that value that might get you something useful back.

 

I've actually advocated this idea of trading Arcia for a while. He's simply not been a good fit for this team since he debuted in 2013. People get overly excited by the long home runs and youth, but that isn't a big need for the Twins moving forward. Especially if he doesn't have a position to play on this team (he doesn't).

 

I'd rather they capitalize on this asset now, rather than wait to see if he can finish developing. At which point, he might not be worth as much because he's older. Sell high, right?!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I never said "down year", I said his numbers are down, which is an unequivocal fact.

You did say his "k/9 is down" which is kinda silly when it's still at 15.3 (exactly even with his career rate).

 

You might have a point about the H/9, although it's a pretty small sample at this point.  He had comparable numbers after 22 innings in 2013, plus 3 HR allowed, and it was hardly a red flag.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That said, I'm with Brock that relievers are over-rated.  Remember when some thought the 2010 Twins needed relief help?  Their relief acquisition did fine, but was a complete non-factor down the stretch and in the playoffs.

 

Not that Chapman wouldn't make this team better, but he probably won't help that much more than the usual Jesse Crain and Jon Rauch types that get traded every summer, or possibly even some minor league promotion.  No need to overpay for him.  (And no, he wouldn't come here in exchange for Meyer and Arcia.  I'm surprised Duensing hasn't been thrown in to that deal.)

[Mike Sixel]

so RP aren't worth anything, but you can't get one for Meyer and Arcia? Which is it? They are worth a lot in prospects, or they aren't worth anything? I am very confused by these statements.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

so RP aren't worth anything, but you can't get one for Meyer and Arcia? Which is it? They are worth a lot in prospects, or they aren't worth anything? I am very confused by these statements.

Elite RP are over-rated.  So they will cost more than Meyer and Arcia, and they won't be worth what they cost.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That said, I'm with Brock that relievers are over-rated.  Remember when some thought the 2010 Twins needed relief help?  Their relief acquisition did fine, but was a complete non-factor down the stretch and in the playoffs.

 

Not that Chapman wouldn't make this team better, but he probably won't help that much more than the usual Jesse Crain and Jon Rauch types that get traded every summer, or possibly even some minor league promotion.  No need to overpay for him.  (And no, he wouldn't come here in exchange for Meyer and Arcia.  I'm surprised Duensing hasn't been thrown in to that deal.)

That's my point, really. In no way am I claiming that Chapman is anything less than a stellar pitcher that would help the team over the next 1.5 seasons.

 

But the price compared to the potential help he provides on a team with some pretty glaring fundamental flaws - SS, C, CF, LF, bullpen - doesn't make sense from a baseball standpoint.

 

For the price of Chapman, maybe even less, you can probably get JJ Hardy. Who is the bigger upgrade? The guy who pitches one inning every second or third day or the SS who grades out well defensively and will probably end the season with a 100-ish OPS+? Never mind that the SS (who is better defensively) will be replacing a .530-ish OPS shortstop.

 

Not that I'm suggesting the Twins pursue Hardy - personally, I'd either promote Pinto and get it over with or go find a better backstop - but it's a valid comparison of price vs. potential improvement of the team in the short-term.

 

If the Twins were a borderline elite team with few holes and Chapman turns them into the toast of the league, I might feel differently about it.

[Mike Sixel]

Isn't it a self fulfilling prophecy to wait for the team to be great before trying to add players to make the team better?

 

so they can get an every day SS, but not a RP for the same price? that seems to be a market inefficiency. Maybe that's why they have drafted so many RP, so they can trade them for insane returns.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Isn't it a self fulfilling prophecy to wait for the team to be great before trying to add players to make the team better?

Where did I say they shouldn't make the team better? You're putting words in my mouth, Mike. It's pretty clear that I'm fine with improving the team - obviously - but it seems to me that if you want to improve a team, you shore up the areas where improvement will be most pronounced (say, replacing a .530 OPS SS) before you go for broke on a reliever.

 

And right now, close to half the lineup is below average and some of it is way below average.

[Mike Sixel]

I can't see them dealing for a SS, not with Polanco in AA.

 

I'd either put Escobar at SS, or Polanco. neither is giving up on Santana, they are both young enough that they might be the future.

 

I suggested this a month ago, and was widely ridiculed. It looks like an even better idea now.

[nicksaviking]

 

No offense but the idea of trading for a marquee talent like Chapman seems uninspired. He is at the apex of his career (or maybe a tad past it). I much prefer targeting the NEXT great reliever.

 

You mean he's not already in the system?  You'd think drafting 95% relief pitchers in 2 of the past 3 drafts would almost guarantee that.

[nicksaviking]

 

Elite RP are over-rated.  So they will cost more than Meyer and Arcia, and they won't be worth what they cost.

 

I agree, and I'd rather target a catcher.  Still, you don't always have to get the best end of a deal for it to still be a good deal.  Even if Kepler, Harrison, Arcia or whomever gets traded for an asset that improves the Twins less than the improvement the other team gets from the Twins prospect, the Twins still improved the team. 

 

Better to get something than nothing, which will happen if the Twins sit on these guys and never give them a chance like Michael Restovich, Michael Ryan and Garrett Jones.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I can't see them dealing for a SS, not with Polanco in AA.

 

I'd either put Escobar at SS, or Polanco. neither is giving up on Santana, they are both young enough that they might be the future.

 

I suggested this a month ago, and was widely ridiculed. It looks like an even better idea now.

I'd start with internal options as well, including the bullpen. If I was GM, I'd have some combination of the following players on the Minnesota roster within the next couple of weeks:

 

Pitchers:

AJ Achter

Lester Oliveros

 

DH/OF:

Oswaldo Arcia

Kennys Vargas

 

C:

Josmil Pinto

 

In my opinion, the smartest option for the Twins right now is to give internal players a shot first, let them play for 4-6 weeks, and then see what you need at the deadline. I think it's a bit presumptuous and reckless to start giving away players for a guy like Chapman when you have Achter and Oliveros dominating in Rochester (not to mention Burdi later in the season if he turns it around). Before you try to acquire players and fill holes (giving up valuable players in the process), dig into your own organization and see if you can get a "good enough" solution at the minimum. If that doesn't pan out, then look outside the org.

[Mike Sixel]

Except, based on how they act, they love veterans.......so not sure what you and I want fits in their plan.

[Willihammer]

Good points. With all the RPs the Twins have drafted, you would think they could do better than Stauffer & Duensing just with internal replacements.

[drjim]

 

Good points. With all the RPs the Twins have drafted, you would think they could do better than Stauffer & Duensing just with internal replacements.

 

Of course they could, but they probably don't want to use prospects on mop up/low leverage roles. I would at least wait until the bullpen started leaking before I started bringing new guys in.

 

Now getting rid of one for a bat, that makes sense, but subbing them out seems unnecessary.

[Willihammer]

Of course they could, but they probably don't want to use prospects on mop up/low leverage roles. I would at least wait until the bullpen started leaking before I started bringing new guys in.

 

Now getting rid of one for a bat, that makes sense, but subbing them out seems unnecessary.

The bullpen is bottom half in ERA and dead last in xFIP.

 

I don't know why you wouldn't break in RP prospects into low leverage situations either. That seems like exactly the sort of spots you would want to break guys in.

[drjim]

 

The bullpen is bottom half in ERA and dead last in xFIP.

I don't know why you wouldn't break in RP prospects into low leverage situations either. That seems like exactly the sort of spots you would want to break guys in.

 

I'm not saying the bullpen is good, just that it has only given up one lead all season. Certainly gets rocked in lower leverage situations.

 

The problem in my mind, is that Oliveros and Achter are in reality no better (and probably worse) than Graham, Pressly and Tonkin. So that is at best rearranging deck chairs.

 

Perkins, Boyer and Fien aren't going anywhere (yet) and Thompson has certainly earned a little bit of a leash. There is your 7.

 

Duensing is probably cooked, but there is at least a little bit of reason to hold out hope for a second lefty and he isn't killing them yet. In addition the guys mentioned aren't lefties, so really aren't replacements for Duensing anyways. If you want to swap out Thielbar, I'd be fine.

 

Stauffer doesn't need to be replaced by another arm, should be a bat.

 

There is certainly room for an upgrade in the bullpen, but the guys called for aren't really that, at least over the reliever that actually matter.

[Willihammer]

I'm not saying the bullpen is good, just that it has only given up one lead all season.

How do you figure?

[drjim]

 

How do you figure?

 

Math.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Joaquim Soria at the deadline last year fetched a guy comparable in some ways to Berrios (Jake Thompson, SP, 2nd round pick 2012, BA's #48 prospect for this year) and another guy comparable to Reed/Burdi (Corey Knebel, RP, 2013 comp pick, minor league 12.4 K/9, plus he had already reached MLB with a small sample 11.4 K/9 for Detroit).

 

And Soria is no Aroldis Chapman.  You're not getting him in return for failing prospects or possible MLB mediocrities.