Article: Twins Draft Preview: Carson Fulmer

[Seth Stohs]

In the draft, the Minnesota Twins – and other teams – have a tendency to get into patterns. As we know, with their first-round picks the last couple of decades, the Twins have either gone high school hitter or college pitcher. In our draft previews this week, we have already looked at couple of college pitchers who could be there when the Twins select at #6.Today, we look that arguably the top college pitcher available in this year’s draft, Carson Fulmer.

 

Who Is This Guy?

 

Earlier in the week, Parker introduced us to Walker Buehler, a right-handed pitcher from Vanderbilt. Buehler is considered a top 10 to top 15 pick in the upcoming draft. He won’t be the first pick from that school. That will be infielder Dansby Swanson who could be taken first overall. In fact, Buehler likely won’t be the first member of the Vandy starting rotation to be drafted. That will most likely be right-hander Carson Fulmer.

 

Fulmer went to high school at All Saints Academy in Lakeland, Florida. Following his high school career, the Boston Red Sox made him their 15^th round pick in the 2012 draft. Instead of signing, he went to Vanderbilt, the college that has produced the likes of David Price, Sonny Gray and Mike Minor in recent years.

 

Right away in 2013, he went 3-0 with a 2.39 ERA in 26 games coming out of the Commodores’ bullpen. In 52.2 innings, he gave up just 37 hits, but he walked 25 and struck out 51.

 

As a sophomore in 2014, he made 16 relief appearances (and had 10 saves) before ending the season with ten starts. He went 7-1 with a 1.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. In 91 innings, he gave up just 61 hits. He still walked 41, and he struck out 95. Fulmer was the team’s starting pitcher in the College World Series championship game. He went 5.1 innings and got a no decision, but Vanderbilt won the title.

 

This season, he is 11-2 with a 1.97 ERA in 15 starts. In 100.2 innings, he has given up 67 hits, walked 38 and struck out 136. He has twice been named the national pitcher of the week.He had a stretch in which he didn't give up a run for 24 innings.

 

Fulmer could very well be the first college pitcher drafted this year – though most believe that will be UC-Santa Barbara RHP Dillon Tate. Most mock drafts have Fulmer not getting past the White Sox with the #8 pick. In Jeremy Nygaard’s mock first round draft, he had Fulmer going #7 to the Red Sox.

 

Why the Twins Will Pick Him

 

Though the Twins have done a nice job in recent years adding power arms, the old adage is wise, “You Never Have Enough Pitching.” Quality pitching is hard to come by, and as we’ve seen with the Twins in recent years, it costs a lot of money to get even mid-rotation starters via free agency. The draft provides a team with the opportunity to add a high-quality, young arm that they can have control of through the formative, and then the best, years rather than the expensive years.

 

The Twins have a history in recent years of drafting mostly pitchers who stand at least 6-4. There are some obvious exceptions, such as JO Berrios and Mat Batts. But for the most part, the Twins draft tall pitchers. Carson Fulmer stands at 6-0 and weighs in at 190 pounds, but he packs some punch into his frame.

 

Fulmer has a fastball that sits in the low-to-mid 90s, but he has hit 98 on several occasions. As you can see from his stat lines, he has not always had great command of his pitches, though he is usually right around the plate. He has a plus breaking ball that he can throw as a slider in the upper 80s or a slower curve ball in the lower 80s. His changeup is a work-in-progress as he often still throws it too hard, in the upper 80s. If he can develop that into a pitch in the low-80s, he could become the next Sonny Gray.

 

Fulmer has been a big part of some very good teams and very good pitching staffs at Vanderbilt. He does not turn 22 until December, but he is a guy who could move relatively quickly up the organizational ladder. That will depend on two things, his control and his ability to improve his changeup. He could be a guy who arrives at Target Field and starts contributing within two years.

 

He has the stats, and he has the accolades, but he also has a few of the intangibles. As you would expect from someone choosing to go to Vanderbilt, he is quite smart. He has been named to several Academic Honor Rolls. His coach, Tim Corbin, called him a “rare combination of power arm, skill, athleticism, mentality and competitiveness.”

 

Ten years ago, the Twins drafted Ryan Mullins, a soft-tossing left-handed pitcher in the third round out of Vanderbilt. In the third round of the 2011 draft, the Twins selected hard-throwing lefty reliever Corey Williams from the school.

 

Why the Twins Will Not Pick Him

 

Some of it is height, but some of it is mechanical. There is some thought that Fulmer could wind up in the bullpen. Obviously there are the thoughts out there that because he’s just 6-0 tall, he may not be able to get the downward plane a taller pitcher would, leaving his pitches flat and able to be hit a long ways.

 

Fulmer throws hard and he is a max-effort type of pitcher. In other words, he has a lot going on in his delivery and some think that may be best suited for the bullpen. As you saw in his stat pack above, he was a bullpen guy at Vanderbilt during his freshman year and the first half of his sophomore season. The Twins have certainly had no problem drafting power, college arms in recent years with the idea of making them starters. In Fulmer’s case, he has been starting (and successfully at a major college program) for the last season and a half. Most believe that he will be able to start, which is why he is considered a Top 8-10 pick.

 

Some mock drafts have had Dillon Tate falling to the Twins, and if he does, I think they will have a hard time passing on him. The Twins also have a long track record of success developing athletic, toolsy, high school hitters, and there are several of them that will be available when the Twins draft at #6.

So, at the end of the day, it appears that the Twins will likely pick between high school hitter and college pitcher. If it’s college pitcher, don’t be surprised if it’s Carson Fulmer.

 

Previous Twins Daily Draft Profiles:

Swanson/Rodgers/Tate

Walker Buehler

Andrew Benintendi

Kyle Funkhouser

 

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[diehardtwinsfan]

I guess he doesn't excite me that much when I read this a bit more.  I don't see front line potential here, though he can be a very good pitcher.  Think I'd rather have Allard or Tate.

[drivlikejehu]

Tate might be a reliever too. I'm not real excited with any of the college pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

Kiley calls him this year's black swan, KLAW finds him over rated by most everyone.

[Willihammer]

If Fulmer and Tate are both available, I'd like to see them take Fulmer. Both pitchers are transitioning from relief to starting and by any measure you want to use, Fulmer has been more successful at it. Also, give me a big curveball over a big slider any day.

[nater79a]

Yeah, that volatile delivery has me worried. Could be an arm injury just waiting to happen.

[Steve Lein]

The more I've researched on all these guys, the more I've soured on Fulmer. Tate has remained static for me, while another one of the top pitchers (who you'll read about here soon!) has continued to move up for me and is now my preferred choice from the Twins perspective.

 

All these guys have the same thing in common though, where they are all transitory in different ways from relief to starting in the pros.

[jimbo92107]

At this point I have no idea which way the Twins will go with their #6 pick. There doesn't seem to be a lot of incredible stand-outs in this draft. Maybe just Best Player Available, and look for a stud ace another year.

 

Damn shame; the Twins may not get another pick this high for a while.

[d-mac]

 

Kiley calls him this year's black swan, KLAW finds him over rated by most everyone.

 

KLaw HATES short pitchers. Jose Berrios and Marcus Stroman say hi. Short pitchers are clearly a market inefficiency. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

KLaw HATES short pitchers. Jose Berrios and Marcus Stroman say hi. Short pitchers are clearly a market inefficiency. 

 

Read Kiley's article.....not short pitchers, short pitchers that the industry generally loves. KLAW's bias is founded in years of history showing that most short RH pitchers don't work out.

[nater79a]

 

The more I've researched on all these guys, the more I've soured on Fulmer. Tate has remained static for me, while another one of the top pitchers (who you'll read about here soon!) has continued to move up for me and is now my preferred choice from the Twins perspective.

 

All these guys have the same thing in common though, where they are all transitory in different ways from relief to starting in the pros.

 

Would it be a certain lefty relief specialist for Illinois?