Who'll Give You the Big Hit? Minnesota Twins Hitter Confidence Rankings

Through the first month of the 2026 season, the Twins’ lineup has been a mix of early surprises, consistent contributors, and slow starts. With both traditional stats and advanced metrics in mind, these confidence rankings reflect current production and how sustainable each player’s performance looks moving forward, as well as my not-so-professional opinions. After all, we'd be kidding ourselves if we pretended that confidence isn't influenced by our subjective senses of each player.

13. James Outman
There isn’t a ton to say here. Outman last had an above-average OPS+ in 2023 when he finished third in the N.L. Rookie of the Year voting. His current role on the team is as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. Let us all hope it stays that way, because more James Outman at-bats would not be good for the Twins.

12. Matt Wallner
Wallner was projected to be one of the Twins’ best bats this year, and now that it's almost May, fans are calling for Wallner to be removed from the roster in favor of one of the top prospects in St. Paul. Wallner’s current strikeout rate renders even a great slugger inviable, but worse, his groundball rate has soared to 50%, well above the 44.2% MLB average. The Forest Lake native’s defense has been atrocious, too. Wallner likely doesn’t have a ton of time to turn his season around with top prospects waiting in St. Paul. The bat speed is still there—kind of—but the 28-year-old must rediscover his 2024 form to rocket back into the top half of this list.

11. Luke Keaschall
One of the bright spots down the stretch in 2025, Keaschall has been abysmal so far this season. He currently has the lowest OPS of the Twins’ qualified hitters, at .551. The advanced metrics don’t back him up, either, with his xwOBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage all far below average. Keaschall doesn’t strike out, whiff, or chase often, but he doesn’t walk much, either, so his quality of contact will need to improve as the season progresses.

10. Kody Clemens
Like Keaschall, Clemens is struggling to repeat his impressive 2025. Following a 19-homerun year for the Twins, Clemens is currently slashing .194/.275/.371, with 3 homers in 70 plate appearances. He’s striking out at a 30% rate. Still, Clemens’s advanced metrics signal he has gotten slightly unlucky so far, with both his xSLG and xBA being higher than his actual values. His average exit velocity and barrel percentage are still very high as well, so I’m on the side of still giving Clemens some time to figure it out. Be it at first base or second, he's a better defender than the obvious alternatives.

9. Royce Lewis
The No. 1 overall pick in 2017, Lewis is slashing .196/.308/.393 with 3 homers in 65 plate appearances so far this year. He, too, is striking out at a 30% rate, but unlike Clemens, his advanced metrics don’t reveal any signs of bad luck so far. One positive to see is that his walk rate is way up, to 12.3%. Lewis did spend some time on the injured list with a knee injury, and the 26-year-old should have plenty of time to figure it out this year—although he's already feeling the pressure from the next guy up on this list.

8. Tristan Gray
The Twins acquired Gray from the Red Sox in late January. After making the team out of spring training, Gray has been good off the bench, slashing .292/.340/.500 with 3 home runs in 54 plate appearances. Somewhat startlingly (unless, I guess, you've been watching the Twins over the last 20 months), Gray seems to be a material threat to Lewis's playing time; the organization might just have him climbing their own confidence rankings.

7. Victor Caratini
This may be a hot take considering Caratini’s slash line is currently .222/.318/.278, but hear me out. Caratini’s line hides a few things. First, his xBA is .046 points higher, at .268, and a similar story can be told about his xwOBA, which is higher than his wOBA by .075. While his average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage are all low, he is getting unlucky so far, so we should expect some positive regression. Second, the 32-year-old’s approach is solid right now, with his chase percentage, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage all easily better than average. Caratini is a good, veteran hitter who put up a 111 OPS+ in 2024 and a 102 OPS+ in 2025, and I think he will be around those numbers come year's end. Caratini may not be the most dynamic hitter on the Twins, but by September, I think he will be one of the most consistent and sneak into the top 5 of this list.

6. Trevor Larnach
Larnach’s name was floated around everywhere this offseason, given the abundance of left-handed outfielders the Twins have and the amount of money he was due. However, he began the season with the team and has been solid so far, slashing .259/.419/.397 in 74 plate appearances. Larnach hasn’t played much, given the number of lefties the Twins faced early in the year, but there are some positives to see in Larnach’s game so far. His walk rate is currently 5th in MLB, and his expected stats are all above his actual stats. Larnach has been around a league-average hitter the past 4 seasons, so it's fair to expect this level of output going forward, though the walk rate will probably diminish at some point.

5. Brooks Lee
In a somewhat insane turn of events, Brooks Lee leads qualified Twins hitters in OPS so far this season. Despite this, Lee’s advanced metrics are all still bad, and his expected statistics (xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG) are all at or below the 18th percentile in MLB, as well as being below his actual values. Lee turning around his season has bought him some time in the big leagues, although his defense at short hasn’t improved. Since these confidence rankings are based on the present, Lee is this high. However, it wouldn’t surprise me (or probably anyone else) in the slightest if Lee regressed back to what we saw for the majority of last year, which would consequently drop him on this list.

4. Josh Bell
Tied for the team lead in RBI, Bell has been solid for the Twins, slashing .235/.333/.378, with 3 homers in 114 plate appearances. Bell is another Twin who has expected stats above his actual ones—especially the slugging percentage, which is .029 points ahead of his actual number. The 33-year-old slugger is above-average in strikeout rate and walk rate, and while his average most likely won’t clear .250, he should hit around 20 homers. By season's end, Bell should finish as one of the best hitters on the Twins—if he is still on the team. Should he exceed that 20-homer number by a large margin, Bell could find himself at number 1 on this list.

3. Byron Buxton
After a slow start, Buxton is starting to get untracked. He's slashing .229/.292/.450 in 120 plate appearances, and he's hit 6 home runs. A .742 OPS isn’t what fans or management expect from the superstar center fielder, but this is the clear best hitter on the Twins, in my opinion. Despite the slow start, the two-time All-Star is the best bet to level off at a high plateau on this benighted roster. The 3rd spot on this list goes to Buxton, not only for his production so far this year, but out of respect for what he represents as a Twin. He is the most dangerous hitter in the lineup, day in and day out, and Buxton will look to get back to his “usual” production as we move into the summer months.

2. Austin Martin
Martin has been a breath of fresh air so far this season, slashing .327/.500/.455 in 76 plate appearances. The style of baseball Martin is playing is different than what has been asked of him in the past. His chase rate and walk percentage are elite, albeit with some matchup advantages players to whom we might compare them don't enjoy. While Martin’s power statistics and advanced metrics aren’t strong, those aren’t his strengths, and the team has recognized that now. Out of all the hitters on the team right now, I’d choose Martin if I needed a base runner. While the abundance of lefties to start the season has helped the former 5th overall pick, Martin’s performance has driven fans to ask if he should be starting every day. 

1. Ryan Jeffers
A free agent at the end of the season, Jeffers is the best hitter on the Twins so far this season. His .282/.414/.465 slash line in 88 plate appearances accounts for an .879 OPS, which would lead the team if he were qualified. His approach has gotten better, with his chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout percentage, and walk percentage all improving this year. His xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, and barrel percentage have all increased as well, ranking at or above the 76th percentile in MLB. The advanced metrics support his start at the plate, and time will tell if he can keep this up, but to me, getting Jeffers to sign an extension should be a priority as the season progresses. Whether he is a Twin in 2027 or not, the rest of the season should be fun, getting to watch Jeffers in the box and behind the plate.

As the season progresses, these rankings will inevitably shift with adjustments, injuries, and regression, both positive and negative. For now, they offer a snapshot of where each hitter stands and what the Twins can realistically expect from their lineup as they push deeper into May and beyond for 2026.