Travis Harrison or Adam Brett Walker?

[ExpectMorePayLess]

Question was asked before:

Name the last Twin (MLB) to have led every minor league level in HRs? Not Close, but Led

 

Name the last Twin (MLB) to have led every minor league (full season) level in RBI & Total Bases?  Not Close, but Led

 

Name the last Twin Prospect in (AA) to have ever led their league in HRs; RBI; TB; XBH; SLG%; at any point in a season?   Not Close, but Led

 

Name the last Twin Prospect (any level) to have an OBP of .310 and leads his team in Runs Scored and/or placed 2nd in that category at years end?  Not near the Top, but 1st or 2nd consistently

 

If we are to compare Walker to the norm, than let's compare him to people who have performed like him.  Not Close to what he does, but Leads in those particular categories yearly  (I'm still waiting?)

 

Then we can say that history shows this or history shows that.  He has been as consistent as any player in their system on a yearly basis.  He is obviously figuring some things out or he wouldn't be performing at a League leading level in production.  

 

Every player has flaws.  The key is to offset those flaws with what you do well.  If OBP is such a major contribution, we never should have demoted Aaron Hicks last year.  His was amongst the highest on the Twins despite the low BA.  What do you bring to the table and is it enough to help us win games?  When people stop performing to their gifts (best tool) is when I get worried.  Walker has yet to slip in that category, so..................The rest is just work in progress

 

All that said - Walker higher ceiling and higher floor

[diehardtwinsfan]

Sorry, Walker doesn't have a higher floor.  Right now, if I had to make a bet, the guy that will see an extended ML career is Harrison, not Walker.  .390 OBP with a .160 ISO... these stats carry over, even if that's a 10-20 HR a year type guy.  He's a tough out, and from what I understand, he's a bit better defensively as well. 

 

That said, Walker does have the higher ceiling.  No question about that.  If he figures out the contact issues to the point where he can say maintain a .250 BA with a .310 OBP while keeping the power or something like that, he's going to be a pretty good player. 

 

As for ranking, I'd probably rate Harrison a bit higher right now. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Question was asked before:

Name the last Twin (MLB) to have led every minor league level in HRs? Not Close, but Led

 

Name the last Twin (MLB) to have led every minor league (full season) level in RBI & Total Bases?  Not Close, but Led

 

Name the last Twin Prospect in (AA) to have ever led their league in HRs; RBI; TB; XBH; SLG%; at any point in a season?   Not Close, but Led

 

Name the last Twin Prospect (any level) to have an OBP of .310 and leads his team in Runs Scored and/or placed 2nd in that category at years end?  Not near the Top, but 1st or 2nd consistently

 

If we are to compare Walker to the norm, than let's compare him to people who have performed like him.  Not Close to what he does, but Leads in those particular categories yearly  (I'm still waiting?)

 

Then we can say that history shows this or history shows that.  He has been as consistent as any player in their system on a yearly basis.  He is obviously figuring some things out or he wouldn't be performing at a League leading level in production.  

 

Every player has flaws.  The key is to offset those flaws with what you do well.  If OBP is such a major contribution, we never should have demoted Aaron Hicks last year.  His was amongst the highest on the Twins despite the low BA.  What do you bring to the table and is it enough to help us win games?  When people stop performing to their gifts (best tool) is when I get worried.  Walker has yet to slip in that category, so..................The rest is just work in progress

 

All that said - Walker higher ceiling and higher floor

The problem is you are cherry picking stats that don't really matter.  They are fun stats but they aren't predictive.  Look at the number of guys in AA that have struck out 35% of the time while walking 6%.  Tons of guys have done that and not made the majors.  Brandon Burges, Mickey Hall, BJ Szymanski, Hector Pellot, Kyle Russell etc.  If Walker doesn't adjust - and nothing suggests he will - he won't make it.  

[TRex]

 

The thing about Walker is people look at his faults more than his assets. 

 

That power is pretty special.

The wart on the nose is easier to point out than the boil on the buttocks!

[ExpectMorePayLess]

 

The problem is you are cherry picking stats that don't really matter.   If Walker doesn't adjust - and nothing suggests he will - he won't make it.  

 

That would go for Harrison as well.  If he doesn't adjust and start hitting for power - he won't make it either.  Not alot of .280 corner outfielders who average 8 HRs per year.  Don't get me wrong - I believe Harrison will start hitting for power and be a solid MLB player.  I also believe that Walkers floor is Mark Reynolds who has been around forever.   He will adjust.  It has only been 1 month in AA for all those guys.  What's the rush?  

 

Granted there are a lot of high SO / low BB prospects in AA who have never made it to the Show.  All I asked was for you to find the 1 prospect who has done what Walker has (in terms of league leading) and never made it to the Show?  He is just a different dude.  Strangely / Oddly / Anomaly like success in terms of continued production with 1 major flaw.

[Monkeypaws]

Hard to say Walker hasn't adjusted - he has moved up a level every season, which might give the appearance that he hasn't adjusted. 

 

Each year he faces better pitching, and the BB/K ratio stays the same, but so does the production.

 

At some point, when the pitching he faces reaches a plateau, we might see tanginble improvement in the numbers. 

 

Or not. If he were repeating levels, then I'd be concerned. 

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

Seems to me that they are very different players with very different risk/reward  profiles and different paths to improvement.  I am very glad to have both of them and also am very glad that they are both much closer to #20 than #1 on our top prospect list.

 

[Willihammer]

What's that? You want to compare two players' chances of MLB success based on minor league stats like age, BB%, K% and ISO? OK let me get my Javier calculator out.http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/7/15/5871621/mlb-prospects-k-bb-iso-javier-yearly

 

Of 22 year olds at A+ within +/- .50 standard deviations of Walker in BB, K, and ISO, 1/40 turned into "productive" players (Chris Duncan).

 

Of 21 year olds at A+ within +/- .50 standard deviations of Harrison in BB, K, and ISO, 4/15 turned into "productive" players (Rich Aurilia, Nate McLouth, Alejandro De Aza, Rod Myers)

 

Winner: Harrison.

[gunnarthor]

 

That would go for Harrison as well.  If he doesn't adjust and start hitting for power - he won't make it either.  Not alot of .280 corner outfielders who average 8 HRs per year.  Don't get me wrong - I believe Harrison will start hitting for power and be a solid MLB player.  I also believe that Walkers floor is Mark Reynolds who has been around forever.   He will adjust.  It has only been 1 month in AA for all those guys.  What's the rush?  

 

Granted there are a lot of high SO / low BB prospects in AA who have never made it to the Show.  All I asked was for you to find the 1 prospect who has done what Walker has (in terms of league leading) and never made it to the Show?  He is just a different dude.  Strangely / Oddly / Anomaly like success in terms of continued production with 1 major flaw.

Harrison has shown a great deal of adjustment as he's gone up the organizational ladder, which we've seen him become a strong on-base guy.  Reynolds, at 23 in AA, had an OBP close to .400.  Right now, Reynolds looks like Walker's ceiling, not floor.  His floor is AA.

 

It doesn't really matter if other prospects led their league in HR or slg or whatever.  Those starts aren't predictive.  Several players have done that without sniffing the majors - Tim Wheeler, Vinnie Catricala, Nate Gold, Hunter Morris etc.  Walker's problem is that he has shown no plate discipline and it has gotten worse as he's gone up levels.  Hopefully, it improves because he doesn't need to get on-base much to be a solid player at the ML level.  But he can't be a sub-.300 OBP guy in AA and expect to be a ML prospect.

[ExpectMorePayLess]

 

Those starts aren't predictive.  Several players have done that without sniffing the majors - Tim Wheeler, Vinnie Catricala, Nate Gold, Hunter Morris etc.  Walker's problem is that he has shown no plate discipline and it has gotten worse as he's gone up levels.  Hopefully, it improves because he doesn't need to get on-base much to be a solid player at the ML level.  But he can't be a sub-.300 OBP guy in AA and expect to be a ML prospect.

 

I never said HR & SLG.  I said HR - RBI - SLG - XBH - TB & Runs for that matter.  The only person you listed that was close to that was Nate Gold and his AA & AAA numbers were outstanding, even in your eyes.  Let's agree in saying Walker has a lot of improving to do.  No question.  I just can't dismiss what he has done up to this point on a yearly basis.  He is also consistent with his OBP (.310ish yearly)

[ExpectMorePayLess]

I love all their Lookout Prospects.  Kepler seems to be putting that swing together as well.  The Twins will have plenty of options in a year or 2.   Thank God we are not even 1/4 of the season into things.  It will be interesting to see how things unfold.

 

Love how Walker leads the Lookout in RBI despite batting 7th all season in a loaded lineup.  I'm still not sure how RBI can be so predictive.  He has hit 4th - 5th - 6th and 7th in his career and seems to find a way.

[blairpaul715]

 

I never said HR & SLG.  I said HR - RBI - SLG - XBH - TB & Runs for that matter.  The only person you listed that was close to that was Nate Gold and his AA & AAA numbers were outstanding, even in your eyes.  Let's agree in saying Walker has a lot of improving to do.  No question.  I just can't dismiss what he has done up to this point on a yearly basis.  He is also consistent with his OBP (.310ish yearly)

Even tho , I am in the Harrison camp on this subject, I hope I am wrong about Walker, we all would love for both of them to be productive Major leaguers

[ExpectMorePayLess]

No Doubt.  Awesome kids too (make up)