Berardino: Twins close to extension with Dozier

[TheLeviathan]

If Dozier repeats his 2014 campaign in 2015, how much more will it cost the Twins to sign him in 12 months than it would today? $3-5m?

Less than or equal to the amount they're paying Pelfrey this season, almost surely.

I'm not really against a Dozier extension but I don't really see a point in falling over yourself getting it done right this second.

Right and we are talking 5M at the absolute high end of things. This idea that not extending Dozier is going to somehow cripple future spending is really bizarre to me.

 

4 years from now is an eternity in baseball, so anything less than a steal of a contract is lopsided in favor of risk over reward.

[jay]

What are the odds someone who is very productive ages 26-27 will still be very productive at 32-33? That is the Twins gamble if they go 6 years.

It would be quite a surprise if they gave him 6 years outright. These extensions are usually through the arb years, plus options on FA years.

 

That's exactly where a good chunk of the value in an extension lies. At the team's discretion, they can hang on to him at what will likely be far below FA rates in both term and dollars.

[jay]

Right and we are talking 5M at the absolute high end of things. This idea that not extending Dozier is going to somehow cripple future spending is really bizarre to me.

You're taking moderate statements and making them sound extreme. No one has said cripple or anything remotely like that.

 

Where's this '$5M on the high end' figure coming from? Examples or precedent? That seems very low.

[stringer bell]

I think that the upward arc in Dozier's career is about over.  He is a fine player, but not elite.  I expect that his batting average will rise a bit, but because of pitcher adjustments he won't hit as many home runs. 

 

I don't think any extension Dozier would sign would preclude the Twins from spending enough on other players to win, I do think that Dozier is a good enough player to be an asset on a team with a chance to win a World Series and I think the message to other players would be positive. 

 

To me, it is a mixed bag, but defensible if the Twins do extend him or if things break down and they go year to year for at least another season.

[Willihammer]

What are the odds someone who is very productive ages 26-27 will still be very productive at 32-33? That is the Twins gamble if they go 6 years.

 

Going back to 2007-2008, I took the top 10 productive players ages 26-27 in those two years. That group of 10 players just finished their age 32-33 season.

 

The players

 

Rios, Granderson, Hamilton, Victorino, Phillips, Ross, Doumit, Morneau, Aviles, Swisher

 

The 10 were credited with 72.8 rWAR from ages 26-27 and 26.6 rWAR from 32-33. They dropped 63%.

 

All of the players dropped. Only one 10 retained more than half of their WAR value. Shane Victorino was the only player to average better than 2 WAR per season at age 32-33 with his great 2013 season.

 

The Twins need to get this right. If cost certainty through arbitration is important, extend him through his arb years and age 31. A decision to go beyond that point will keep them in this cycle of mediocrity.

What was the average production of this sample at age 31?

[jorgenswest]

What was the average production of this sample at age 31?

 

2.9 WAR

 

Dozier is born in May so I did look at the birth months to see if this group was mostly born in the fall and maybe really an older group. He would rank 4th by birthday according to how close they are to July 1.

 

Only Victorino (the one positive in the group) and Swisher are more than 6 months older relative to July 1. 

 

I could drop Victorino and Swisher and see if the are some later summer birthday to add from the next group younger but I would be dropping a big portion of the 26.6 WAR.

 

The Twins should not make any commitment beyond age 31. They have under team control through that age so there should be little urgency to extend. When he performs well, pay him. They can afford it. If not, have the flexibility to give the job to someone like Polanco.

[Willihammer]

Alright so for all those saying "the Twins can afford to pay Dozier if he is still a stud when team control runs out," here are some of the contracts signed by players of similar age and WAR this offseason

 

Brandon McCarthy, 3.0 WAR, age 31, 4/48m

Ervin Santana, 2.8 WAR, age 32, 4/55m

Melky Cabrera, 2.6 WAR, age 30, 3/42m

Nick Markakis, 2.5 WAR, age 31, 4/44m

 

 

Assuming 12% $/WAR inflation, the Twins would be looking at a 4 year 59m commitment for a 31 year old coming off a 2.9 WAR season in 2018.

 

Obviously there's a chance Dozier's career derails in the interim, and that risk should be priced in, but this is where the potential savings is if he stays on his current trajectory (or exceeds it). They can hang onto him for one or two extra seasons without committing to his age 32-34 seasons at a cost of an extra $29-44m (assuming an extension of 4 or 5 years).

 

edited: math

[jay]

Alright so for all those saying "the Twins can afford to pay Dozier if he is still a stud when team control runs out," here are some of the contracts signed by players of similar age and WAR this offseason

 

Brandon McCarthy, 3.0 WAR, age 31, 4/48m

Ervin Santana, 2.8 WAR, age 32, 4/55m

Melky Cabrera, 2.6 WAR, age 30, 3/42m

Nick Markakis, 2.5 WAR, age 31, 4/44m

 

 

Assuming 12% $/WAR inflation, the Twins would be looking at a 4 year 75m commitment for a 31 year old coming off a 2.9 WAR season in 2019.

 

Obviously there's a chance Dozier's career derails in the interim, and that risk should be priced in, but this is where the potential savings is if he stays on his current trajectory (or exceeds it). They can hang onto him for one or two extra seasons without committing to his age 33-34 seasons at a cost of an extra $38m.

Great post.

 

Those first two free agent seasons, likely on team options, would be much closer to a total of $25M with an extension than a projected $38M... and that's in addition to not being locked into two more years past that.

 

Pretty sure that's worth a bit more than $5M, not to mention a discount on the arb years as well.

[Halsey Hall]

I talked to a strib writer today and he said he hadn't heard a thing.  That he thinks it's just his agent trying to stir things up. 

[jorgenswest]

Alright so for all those saying "the Twins can afford to pay Dozier if he is still a stud when team control runs out," here are some of the contracts signed by players of similar age and WAR this offseasonBrandon McCarthy, 3.0 WAR, age 31, 4/48mErvin Santana, 2.8 WAR, age 32, 4/55mMelky Cabrera, 2.6 WAR, age 30, 3/42mNick Markakis, 2.5 WAR, age 31, 4/44mAssuming 12% $/WAR inflation, the Twins would be looking at a 4 year 59m commitment for a 31 year old coming off a 2.9 WAR season in 2018.Obviously there's a chance Dozier's career derails in the interim, and that risk should be priced in, but this is where the potential savings is if he stays on his current trajectory (or exceeds it). They can hang onto him for one or two extra seasons without committing to his age 32-34 seasons at a cost of an extra $29-44m (assuming an extension of 4 or 5 years).edited: math

Why would they sign a guy almost certain to drop well below league average as he ages from 32-35 to a 3-4 year contract? They can let him go or tender and get the pick or trade at 30. No one will force them into a bad 4 year 59 million dollar commitment. Let someone else pay for the decline.

[tobi0040]

I talked to a strib writer today and he said he hadn't heard a thing.  That he thinks it's just his agent trying to stir things up. 

 

Which to me makes sense.  Seems odd that we haven't heard boo in about five days.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It would be quite a surprise if they gave him 6 years outright. These extensions are usually through the arb years, plus options on FA years.

 

Not last year's 2B comparables, Kipnis and Carpenter. 6 guaranteed years, plus options on top of that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I talked to a strib writer today and he said he hadn't heard a thing. That he thinks it's just his agent trying to stir things up.

Could be the Twins looking for a Span type discount, and Dozier/agent angling for a Carpenter/Kipnis deal.

[TheLeviathan]

Great post.

 

Those first two free agent seasons, likely on team options, would be much closer to a total of $25M with an extension than a projected $38M... and that's in addition to not being locked into two more years past that.

 

Pretty sure that's worth a bit more than $5M, not to mention a discount on the arb years as well.

 

The 5M is what I assume to be the most they'd save in any single season with an extension.  The point you and Willihammer seem to be missing is that you're arguing we'd be getting a discount during two seasons that jorgen keeps pointing out are so likely to drop off...we shouldn't want to be invested in him at all.

 

Personally, I'd rather not be committed to Dozier during highly likely drop-off seasons, no matter how discounted they may be.  If, on the off chance, he plays himself into being a "must sign" player when his arbitration runs out and he's 30 some odd years old - then so be it.  It's just money, it won't kill the franchise to sign him.  

 

But the odds of that happening are not good, so what we will get for assuming a ton of risk are 1) a couple discounted seasons when he will most likely be tailing off  and 2) a handful of millions per season, at best, while he would have still been under year-to-year team control.  I don't see the appeal.

[jay]

Personally, I'd rather not be committed to Dozier during highly likely drop-off seasons, no matter how discounted they may be.

Team options, which is what I'd want to see, aren't committed.....

 

But the odds of that happening are not good, so what we will get for assuming a ton of risk are 1) a couple discounted seasons when he will most likely be tailing off and 2) a handful of millions per season, at best, while he would have still been under year-to-year team control.

How big is that risk, really? I think you're overstating it. This "tons of risk" you're talking about is no greater in the other direction. If an extension discounts his currently projected arb rates, it's hard to envision overpaying by a handful of millions per season anywhere short of a career ending injury.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Team options, which is what I'd want to see, aren't committed.....

Yeah, but Dozier has little reason to listen to an offer with only team options. You're not going to get him to the table unless you buy out at least one year of FA at a fair price.

 

Why would Dozier lock himself up for eight years of control with team options that would surely pay him less than he'd make on the open market? If he's not worth the option price, the team declines. It's a lose-lose for Dozier.

[TheLeviathan]

How big is that risk, really? I think you're overstating it. This "tons of risk" you're talking about is no greater in the other direction. If an extension discounts his currently projected arb rates, it's hard to envision overpaying by a handful of millions per season anywhere short of a career ending injury.

 

So nothing short of a career ending injury is going to curtail Dozier from escalating arbitration prices?  You don't think a dip or nosedive in production or something else might happen?  You realize these are frequent occurences even among players with excellent starts to their careers?

 

But yes, if you are arguing that we get a rosey discount for all his arbitration years and cheap options for his FA years - sure - I might be on board.  If we somehow convince his agent that's a good idea, fine.  But why on earth would Dozier or his agent agree to that?  

[Willihammer]

Yeah, but Dozier has little reason to listen to an offer with only team options. You're not going to get him to the table unless you buy out at least one year of FA at a fair price.

 

Why would Dozier lock himself up for eight years of control with team options that would surely pay him less than he'd make on the open market? If he's not worth the option price, the team declines. It's a lose-lose for Dozier.

The free market wouldn't surely pay him less. His career could go off the rails anytime. The Twins would be assuming that risk.

 

An extension would almost certainly have a signing bonus. Kipnis and Carpenter got 1 and 1.5 along with a raise. Its too late to give Dozier a salary raise I think but they could leverage a nice bonus in exchange for the team options.

 

edit: Oh and buyouts could be included with the team options.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The free market wouldn't surely pay him less. His career could go off the rails anytime. The Twins would be assuming that risk.

 

An extension would almost certainly have a signing bonus. Kipnis and Carpenter got 1 and 1.5 along with a raise. Its too late to give Dozier a salary raise I think but they could leverage a nice bonus in exchange for the team options.

I don't see it. Dozier has some financial security to gain by accepting that deal but he's potentially leaving $30m on the table by accepting an option-laden contract.

 

For a guy coming off a 5 WAR season, that doesn't make sense. Yeah, you take the deal if the Twins buy out a FA year for $15m guaranteed but you don't sign an option-laden contract that takes you into your mid-30s for $1m today. Not with the kind of pay ceiling Dozier has if he keeps performing.

 

Unless he has a catastrophic injury in the next 12 months, Brian Dozier never has to worry about money again. Why would he be so hung up on getitng $1m today at the expense of tens of millions tomorrow? No agent in their right mind would accept an option contract for Brian Dozier in 2015.

[Willihammer]

The Tribe gave Kipnis a $1m bonus and also raised his salary in year 1 from league min to 2m. So he got a 600% raise in year one. He also got a 2.5m buyout in the final year if the team doesn't exercise its option.

 

Probably depends on the person but that would seem like a pretty sweet deal to me.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Tribe also bought out two years of Kipnis' free agency with guaranteed money.

 

That's what the Twins would need to offer to get Dozier to even sit at the table.

[Willihammer]

The Tribe also bought out two years of Kipnis' free agency with guaranteed money.

 

That's what the Twins would need to offer to get Dozier to even sit at the table.

True. I'm skeptical it would take 2 years to get Dozier to sit at the table, Kipnis and Carpenter both got MVP votes before they signed their extensions, but you might be right. Again, I think it probably depends on the person. If I'm Dozier, I'd jump on a 5 year contract yesterday. Although if Halsey's source knows anything, the Twins are the ones that need convincing to come to the table.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, I think we're misunderstanding each other. Dozier might accept a single year of guaranteed money and a second year team option instead of going to free agency.

 

I was responding to another user who implied he'd sign for two years with team options. That doesn't make sense from Dozier's perspective.

[kab21]

Dozier would absolutely be interested in a contract that bought out his arb years and included 1-2 options for his FA years.  He was a late round draft pick and has made the MLB min so far.  If he had 4 years of guaranteed cash then he is interested.  The only question is how much guaranteed cash is needed.

[jay]

I was responding to another user who implied he'd sign for two years with team options. That doesn't make sense from Dozier's perspective.

Four years guaranteed with options on two years of free agency would be ideal, but yeah, it might take five years guaranteed to make sense for Dozier. I don't see it taking no less than six just because of Kipnis and Carpenter. Dozier hasn't quite reached that level.

[TheLeviathan]

Dozier would absolutely be interested in a contract that bought out his arb years and included 1-2 options for his FA years.  He was a late round draft pick and has made the MLB min so far.  If he had 4 years of guaranteed cash then he is interested.  The only question is how much guaranteed cash is needed.

Right but then you either give him more cash than he is likely to make in arbitration or give him post-arb guaranteed money. People are arguing we will somehow get him to sign something that will both save money the next few years and only have options. That ain't happening.

[kab21]

Right but then you either give him more cash than he is likely to make in arbitration or give him post-arb guaranteed money. People are arguing we will somehow get him to sign something that will both save money the next few years and only have options. That ain't happening.

No, right now he has zero guaranteed money at all.  It's very unlikely but something could happen to him and his career might not recover.  Dozier is coming to the table if there is guaranteed money.  It doesn't have to be more than he will make in arb.  But it does have to be enough guaranteed money.  He's not taking a massive discount and the options for his FA seasons have to be in the 10+M/yr range (possibly 12-15M/yr). 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Dozier would absolutely be interested in a contract that bought out his arb years and included 1-2 options for his FA years.  He was a late round draft pick and has made the MLB min so far.  If he had 4 years of guaranteed cash then he is interested.  The only question is how much guaranteed cash is needed.

No, I don't think he would. The guy just came off a 5 WAR season. Why would he be so interested in $4-5m now (that he's almost surely going to make anyway) at the expense of a possible $30-40m in free agency?

 

If Dozier's agent has any smarts, the Kipnis contract is the baseline for negotiations. While one guaranteed year of free agency might get the job done, no guaranteed years should have Brian walking away from the table. It doesn't make sense for him to agree to those terms.

 

Edit: after reading this again, it seems you are implying that if the Twins overpay in arb, then that might get the job done. I can see that happening but at that point, are the Twins interested? To get Dozier to agree to a dual-option contract, the Twins would probably have to give him ~$20m in his final arbitration year. That's the only way a deal of that kind makes sense for Dozier. He has to be getting a lot in arbitration to counter the tens of millions he could be leaving on the table on those option years.

[kab21]

No.  If Dozier completely blows out his knee he has nothing.  He will come to the table for the same reasons that Span and countless others came to the table pre-arb.  A guaranteed 20-30M sets him up for life at the expense of having 12-15M/yr options during his FA years.  He trades financial upside for complete financial security and probably gets 2-3M the first season (first big payday) instead of the MLB min.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No.  If Dozier completely blows out his knee he has nothing.  He will come to the table for the same reasons that Span and countless others came to the table pre-arb.  A guaranteed 20-30M sets him up for life at the expense of having 12-15M/yr options during his FA years.  He trades financial upside for complete financial security and probably gets 2-3M the first season (first big payday) instead of the MLB min.

Okay, we'll just have to disagree here but... When is the last time we saw a 5 WAR player sign a contract that doesn't buy out FA years with guaranteed money but gives the team two options?

 

I can't recall it happening. One guaranteed year buyout with one team option, yeah... but I can't remember any deals with only two team options. That in itself says a lot about whether Dozier would accept that deal.

 

You brought up Span, which only strengthens my point. My memory is hazy here and I could be wrong but I'm almost positive Span signed a contract that bought out one FA year with one team option year after that.