Article: Sizing Up The Competition: Cleveland Indians

[Nick Nelson]

Last year, in a division that featured Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, James Shields and (eventually) David Price, few would have guessed that the best starting pitcher would come out of Cleveland. But the Indians did end up boasting the AL Central's best starter, and arguably its best position player too.

 

In two years since Terry Francona took over as skipper, Cleveland has won 92 and 85 games. Led by reigning Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and breakout star Michael Brantley, they will now look to take the next step and win the AL Central, something they haven't done since 2007.

 

Can the Tribe leapfrog the Royals and Tigers while holding off the much-improved White Sox?2014 Record: 85-77

Runs Scored/Allowed: 669 / 653

 

Key Additions: Gavin Floyd (SP), Brandon Moss (1B/OF)

Key Departures: Asdrubal Cabrera (SS), Justin Masterson (SP)

 

Why They'll Be Better

 

It was a quiet offseason for general manager Chris Antonetti, but that's not such a bad thing as the Indians kept their solid young core intact. Almost everyone is returning from a pitching staff that ranked sixth in the AL with a 3.57 ERA. Masterson and his 5.51 ERA have been swapped out for Floyd, who looked excellent in limited action last year coming off Tommy John surgery. If he's fully recovered from an elbow fracture, Floyd could prove to be a very savvy pickup.

 

He joins a group of starters that includes Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin, Danny Salazar and T.J. House, all of whom are under 30 and capable of missing bats. That's a very favorable combination, and with Cleveland bringing back an outstanding relief corps, this club should excel at preventing runs.

 

Run production is what can take the Indians to the next level. Brantley will be hard-pressed to repeat a spectacular 2014 campaign that landed him third in the AL MVP voting, but any regression there should be offset by contributions from prime-aged hitters like Jason Kipnis (who's due for a big rebound), Carlos Santana, Yan Gomes and Lonnie Chisenhall.

 

Much could ride on young Francisco Lindor, the team's top prospect who is expected to eventually become the long-term shortstop. That door is now open with Cabrera gone, and although the 21-year-old Lindor is expected to open the season in Triple-A, he could wind up being a difference-maker for a team that got a .683 OPS from the shortstop position last year.

 

Why They'll Be Worse

 

The Indians have enough pitching to contend, but the offense needs to get better after scoring only 669 runs in 2014. While that's certainly a possibility, given the aforementioned group of capable young hitters, it's hardly a guarantee.

 

Brantley's .890 OPS last year was the highest of his career by nearly 150 points, and if he comes crashing back to Earth while some other guys fail to progress, this team may not score enough to rise above mediocrity.

 

In the rotation, the Indians need a few starters outside of Kluber to prove themselves. There's plenty of talent in the mix, but outside of the ace, no incumbent has come close to logging 200 innings in an MLB season, and the newly acquired Floyd is coming off two straight injury-ruined campaigns.

 

What To Expect

 

The Indians are counting on their two best players, Kluber and Brantley, to back up career years that were -- to some extent -- out of nowhere. That's always a risky proposition, but there are plenty of quality pieces in place around that duo, giving Cleveland the potential for an upper-echelon pitching staff and a strong offense to support it.

 

Francona has had this team very competitive in both of his years at the helm, and I fully expect that to continue in 2015.

 

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[nater79a]

 Really like the rotation with Kluber,Salazar,  Bauer, House & Carrasco. Shaw and Allen help make up a formidable bullpen.

 

Brandon Moss has a chance to be THE key pickup in the Central this offseason if he can knock 25-30 HR's out.

 

The key though, as Nick said, is whether Brantley can replicate, for the most part, his terrific '14 season. If so, they have enough other solid pieces like Santana, Chisenhall and Kipnis to have a good year.

 

I think the Indians will give the Tigers a run for their money as AL Central champs in '15.  I'll say the Indians fall just short of the Tigers in the end. 2nd place at 87-75, 2 GB.

[Kwak]

A rather quiet thread for a very competitive team.  I am convinced they are in it to the last series--and would not be surprised to see Cleveland in the playoffs.  They are at the point the Twins are aiming for in three years.

[Paul Pleiss]

I don't much care for the Indians, and as much as I think they are improved and will be better than the Twins, I'd be willing to bet a helmet nachoes that the Twins out duel them head-to-head. Any takers?

[jimmer]

I don't much care for the Indians, and as much as I think they are improved and will be better than the Twins, I'd be willing to bet a helmet nachoes that the Twins out duel them head-to-head. Any takers?

I'm your Huckleberry

Edited February 7, 2015 by jimmer

[jimmer]

A rather quiet thread for a very competitive team.  I am convinced they are in it to the last series--and would not be surprised to see Cleveland in the playoffs.  They are at the point the Twins are aiming for in three years.

yeah, I have them, at minimum, making the playoffs.

[Dantes929]

Talent, potential with some question marks.   Sounds familiar.   I still put the odds at about Tigers .24, Tribe, Sox, Royals at .22 each and Twins at .10.    Not exactly  a weak division but no standouts.   Twins could win mid to upper 70s and finish last.  Last year every division had at least one team that won 73 or less..  

[Willihammer]

I could see the Tribe ripping off 100 wins and running away with the division. They look primed to explode IMO

[Dantes929]

I could see the Tribe ripping off 100 wins and running away with the division. They look primed to explode IMO

That's kind of the thing.    I could see any of these teams doing that.   Indians are certainly one of them.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

"That's kind of the thing. I could see any of these teams doing that. Indians are certainly one of them. " -Dantes929

 

Really? Any? Twins won't. Sox look much improved but I think are missing the pitching depth to go on a prolonged hot streak. Agreed tho, Tigers, Royals, and Indians all have a very wide range of potential.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I could see the Tribe ripping off 100 wins and running away with the division. They look primed to explode IMO

I just don't see that happening. The Tribe look decent on paper but there are a few regression candidates on that roster. If everything goes right, I could see them winning 90-95 games. If luck neutral, I think they're an 80-85 win team like most of the rest of the Central.

 

Obviously, one or two of the Central teams will be better than that while others might falter, just grading the teams on paper.

[jimmer]

I could see the Tribe ripping off 100 wins and running away with the division. They look primed to explode IMO

From what I see, they are currently the best team in the division.  They should win it.  100 wins is a lot, but yeah, it wouldn't surprise me.

[nater79a]

I think there are too many good starting pitchers in the AL Central (spread across all 5 teams)  for any team to roll into the 90-win plateau. Maybe the winner gets into the very low 90's, but I'm not sure. A lot of parity. 

[tobi0040]

I don't see any team in the division sniffing 100 wins. If anything the division seems as balanced as it has ever been with no real good team. This reeks of many in the 77 to 85 range to me

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't see any team in the division sniffing 100 wins. If anything the division seems as balanced as it has ever been with no real good team. This reeks of many in the 77 to 85 range to me

Agreed. Ultimately, one or two teams will separate a bit but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if 88-89 wins takes this division with several teams vying for the title.

[Dantes929]

"That's kind of the thing. I could see any of these teams doing that. Indians are certainly one of them. " -Dantes929

 

Really? Any? Twins won't. Sox look much improved but I think are missing the pitching depth to go on a prolonged hot streak. Agreed tho, Tigers, Royals, and Indians all have a very wide range of potential.

Wasn't responding to the 100 games so much as the running away with the division.   I certainly haven't given up on the Twins before the first pitch is even thrown.   Young talent isn't likely to mature all at the same time but I am an optimist.  Twins are the least likely to win the division and that means you are a very good bet to be right.   I watch for that small chance that you are wrong.  Its baseball.  Worst to first happens.

[tobi0040]

We should be able to keep Cerrano at bay with breaking balls.