2015 Offensive rankings for Top 50 First Baseman

[jokin]

Preseason offensive ranking of Top 50 First Baseman

Fantasy Leaguers publication, The Dynasty Guru, isn't buying the usual ZiPS projection for a typical extreme drop-off in rookie sophomore years; it turns out that they're really bullish on Kennys Vargas when he's plugged into fantasy teams as a 1B-man in 2015.  He's ranked ahead of Tex, Napoli, Butler, Howard, Kendrys Morales, Loney, Swisher in terms of potential offensive output.   And rated at #21, he's only 3-4 spots behind Mauer and Morneau. (Former/current Twins in bold). Commentary enclosed for Vargas below- the writers feel a 30 HR year is not out of the question if he gets the PAs. 

 

It's interesting to note that Vargas debuts at #21, while Jose Abreu debuted last year at #15 (now #3), so this publication has a history of committing their endorsement publicly to unproven talent.

 

Sadly, they aren't as high on a Joe Mauer bounceback season.  He drops to #18 after a #4 preseason rank in 2014. 

 

Anthony Rizzo and Lucas Duda are two names with big jumps up the traditional power position pecking order.

 

 

"As usual, the minor league representatives on this list are rather tame (with the exception of Kennys Vargas), but the position will remain deep as players slide down the defensive spectrum and settle in for a life of scooping errant throws and dodging Nick Punto head-first slides."

1) Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks (Age: 27, Previous Rank: 1)

2) Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 1 – 3B)

3) Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 15)

4) Anthony Rizzo (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 12)

5) Edwin Encarnacion (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 5)

6) Freddie Freeman (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 7)

7) Joey Votto (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 3)

8)  Adrian Gonzalez (Age: 32, Previous Rank: 10)

9) Albert Pujols (Age: 35, Previous Rank: 8)

10) Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers (Age: 30, Previous Rank: 4)

11) Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers (Age: 36, Previous Rank: 23)

12) David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox (Age: 39, Previous Rank: 11)

13) Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 6)

14) Lucas Duda, New York Mets (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 40)

15) Matt Adams, St. Louis Cardinals (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 18)

16) Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants (Age: 26, Previous Rank: 16)

17) Justin Morneau, Colorado Rockies (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 27)

18) Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 4, C)

19) Adam LaRoche, Chicago White Sox (Age: 35, Previous Rank: 33)

20) Chris Carter, Houston Astros (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 25)

 

 

"We’ll continue our first base list with a big time breakout candidate:"

 

21) Kennys Vargas, Minnesota Twins (Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR)
Vargas got the call to Minnesota in August and held his own despite skipping AAA, putting up a .274/.316/.456 line that included nine bombs in 53 games.  The 27 percent strikeout rate will be problematic if it holds, but he showed consistent improvement in that area while advancing through the minors.  Vargas has the raw power to threaten the 30 homer plateau with a full season of at-bats and some refinement of his approach.  If you’re in need of power upside, drop the extra dollar on the big fella.

22) Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox (Age: 33, Previous Rank:17)

23) Adam Lind, Milwaukee Brewers (Age; 31, Previous Rank: 30)

24) Billy Butler, Oakland Athletics (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 14)

25) Jon Singleton, Houston Astros (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 20)

26) Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees (Age: 34, Previous Rank: 22)

27) Dan Vogelbach, Chicago Cubs (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 26)

28) James Loney, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 30, Previous  Rank: 36)

29) Greg Bird, New York Yankees ( Age: 22, Previous Rank: 44)

30) C.J. Cron, Los Angeles Angels (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 39)

31) Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics (Age: 20, Previous Rank: NR)

32) Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres (Age 27, Previous Rank:28)

33) Kendrys Morales, Kansas City Royals (Age 31, Previous Rank: 21)

34) Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 35. Previous Rank: 32)

35) Ike Davis, Oakland Athletics (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 24)

36) Logan Morrison, Seattle Mariners (Age 27, Previous Rank: 34)

37) Dom Smith, New York Mets (Age: 19, Previous Rank: 38)

38) Nick Swisher, Cleveland Indians (Age: 34, Previous Rank: 29)

39) A.J. Reed, Houston Astros (Age: 21, Previous Rank: NR)

40) Christian Walker, Baltimore Orioles (Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR)

41) Garrett Jones, New York Yankees (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 45)

42) Mitch Moreland, Texas Rangers (Age: 29, Previous Rank: 35)

43) Bobby Bradley, Cleveland Indians (Age: 18, Previous Rank: NR)

44) Casey Gillaspie, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 22, Previous Rank: NR)

45) Stephen Vogt, Oakland Athletics (Age: 30, Previous Rank: NR)

46) Justin Smoak, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 41)

47) Ronald Guzman, Texas Rangers (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 43)

48) Darin Ruf, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 28, Previous Rank: 42)

49) Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners (Age: 25, Previous Rank: 29 C)

50) Corey Hart, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 33, Previous Rank: 31)

 

Commentary by Greg Wellemeyer, Kazuto Yamazaki, and Nick Doran

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think the Mauer drop is more a function of him losing his eligibility at Catcher. He'd still be rated well there. First Basemen typically have a different skill set at the plate compared to Joe, so fantasy owners looking for homers and RBI vs rate stats will be disappointed.

[tobi0040]

He technically had a higher OPS last year, but I still have Miggy ahead of Goldshmidt. 

 

My other comment relates to the salaries commited to players out of the top 5 and some way down the list.  Votto (7), Pujols (9), Prince (10),  Mauer (18), Teixera (26), Howard (34), Swisher (38).  Yikes.

[Thrylos]

Those are fantasy rankings, correct?  If so they reflect only the parts of the game that fantasy leagues care about (usually HR, SB etc) and does not reflect the whole reality.  For example, someone who hits .230/.300/.330, has horrible defense but has 50 SB is ranked higher than someone who hits .310/.360/.480 with 15 HRs 2 SBs and stellar defense.  

[jimmer]

Aren't these just fantasy rankings?  So depending on the format, they will be ranked differently?

[jimmer]

Those are fantasy rankings, correct?  If so they reflect only the parts of the game that fantasy leagues care about (usually HR, SB etc) and does not reflect the whole reality.  For example, someone who hits .230/.300/.330, has horrible defense but has 50 SB is ranked higher than someone who hits .310/.360/.480 with 15 HRs 2 SBs and stellar defense.  

Oops, that was kind of funny.  We went the same direction there.

[jokin]

I think the Mauer drop is more a function of him losing his eligibility at Catcher. He'd still be rated well there. First Basemen typically have a different skill set at the plate compared to Joe, so fantasy owners looking for homers and RBI vs rate stats will be disappointed.

 

Nope.  The authors patted themselves on the back in the article for correctly forecasting that Mauer would move to First Base in 2014.

[jokin]

Those are fantasy rankings, correct?  If so they reflect only the parts of the game that fantasy leagues care about (usually HR, SB etc) and does not reflect the whole reality.  For example, someone who hits .230/.300/.330, has horrible defense but has 50 SB is ranked higher than someone who hits .310/.360/.480 with 15 HRs 2 SBs and stellar defense.  

 

It was based on a 5x5 League ranking criteria.

[mikelink45]

This is a reminder to me of how the 1B position has weakened.  This is where the power and the glamour is - was. Killebrew, McCover, Cepeda, Bill White, Boog Powell, Vic Power... of 1970.  People like Stargell, Eddie Murray... There is a need for a resurgence at the corners.  To rank below #5 on this list does not mean much.  

[jokin]

Those are fantasy rankings, correct?  If so they reflect only the parts of the game that fantasy leagues care about (usually HR, SB etc) and does not reflect the whole reality.  For example, someone who hits .230/.300/.330, has horrible defense but has 50 SB is ranked higher than someone who hits .310/.360/.480 with 15 HRs 2 SBs and stellar defense.  

 

Yes, but then again, in the last 30 years there are only 30 First Baseman with 50 steals- for their entire careers.

Fantasy League rankings work well with First Baseman, as the authors allude to in their opening- their task is pretty straightforward-

 

catch a baseball thrown right at them,

avoid a Nick Punto slide into First,

and Most Importantly-, mash the hell out of the baseball with their bats.

 

(Just a personal note, I plead guilty to having played 1B)

[jokin]

This is a reminder to me of how the 1B position has weakened.  This is where the power and the glamour is - was. Killebrew, McCover, Cepeda, Bill White, Boog Powell, Vic Power... of 1970.  People like Stargell, Eddie Murray... There is a need for a resurgence at the corners.  To rank below #5 on this list does not mean much.

 

Good point about the power vacuum at the position.  But, as Tobi pointed out, rankings, and guessing who can be a productive run-producer in the middle of a lineup, means a lot to the teams desperately trying to find Killebrew or Murray-like production. There are a lot of clubs paying boatloads of money to guys ranked below Vargas- they sure wish and hope it would mean more for the money they're shelling out. 

 

It sure makes the money that the White Sox gambled with Abreu look like an absolute steal.

[USAFChief]

Nope.  The authors patted themselves on the back in the article for correctly forecasting that Mauer would move to First Base in 2014.

Right, but in 2014, Mauer would have still been eligible at catcher in most leagues. Typically, position eligibility in fantasy leagues is based on the previous year, no?

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Nope.  The authors patted themselves on the back in the article for correctly forecasting that Mauer would move to First Base in 2014.

 

yeah, but the prior year's ranking of 4th was positional :

 

18) Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins (Age: 31, Previous Rank: 4, C)

 

 

 

That being said, I think 18th at 1st base is a bit bullish for Mauer - not in terms of his overall value as a baseball player, but as a fantasy baseball 1st baseman, there are categories that you have to count on from that pos.

[Dantes929]

They aren't high on a Mauer bounceback season.   Any particular reason for this cuz I would bet the bank on it.     

[jokin]

Right, but in 2014, Mauer would have still been eligible at catcher in most leagues. Typically, position eligibility in fantasy leagues is based on the previous year, no?

 

yeah, but the prior year's ranking of 4th was positional :

 

 

 

That being said, I think 18th at 1st base is a bit bullish for Mauer - not in terms of his overall value as a baseball player, but as a fantasy baseball 1st baseman, there are categories that you have to count on from that pos.

 

Yes, you both are correct, the authors tried to have it both ways.  But there's no doubt, as many on TD have noted over the last year, they have recognized how hard it will be for the Twins to receive full value on Mauer's contract at the position- in both the fantasy and real world.

[jokin]

They aren't high on a Mauer bounceback season.   Any particular reason for this cuz I would bet the bank on it.     

 

I hope to heck they're wrong, as well.  But ZiPS and Steamer both forecast only a mini-comeback.  The authors from Dyansty Guru cite the steadily increasing whiff rate since 2010 as their prime indicator, plus a career low BA, despite Mauer's normally high BABIP and LD%.

[Thrylos]

Yes, but then again, in the last 30 years there are only 30 First Baseman with 50 steals- for their entire careers.

Fantasy League rankings work well with First Baseman, as the authors allude to in their opening- their task is pretty straightforward-

 

catch a baseball thrown right at them,

avoid a Nick Punto slide into First,

and Most Importantly-, mash the hell out of the baseball with their bats.

 

(Just a personal note, I plead guilty to having played 1B)

 

I'd argue that a good fielding first baseman like Keith Hernandez, Doug Mientkiewicz or Don Mattingly who can protect the corner doubles and triples, has enough range to his right, can start 3-4-3 double plays, can throw out a lead runner at home etc. is more valuable than his slashline.   There are static first basemen, but their pitchers suffer...

[jimmer]

They aren't high on a Mauer bounceback season.   Any particular reason for this cuz I would bet the bank on it.     

I'm with you on this.  I see him coming back to hitting like he normally does.  I think the concussion affected him more than people realize.  

[jimmer]

I'd argue that a good fielding first baseman like Keith Hernandez, Doug Mientkiewicz or Don Mattingly who can protect the corner doubles and triples, has enough range to his right, can start 3-4-3 double plays, can throw out a lead runner at home etc. is more valuable than his slashline.   There are static first basemen, but their pitchers suffer...

But Fantasy Leagues don't care about that kind of defense you're talking about and jokin was talking about the kind of 1Bs fantasy sports value.

[Dantes929]

I'm with you on this.  I see him coming back to hitting like he normally does.  I think the concussion affected him more than people realize.  

I believe the concussion affected him as did the move to 1st base and expectations that go along with it.  To me its kind of like the LNP syndrome.   When Punto was the utility infielder in 2006 he had a great year just gong where they needed him which just happened to be mostly 3rd base.    No extra pressure.  He just did what he did best and the fact they needed him at 3rd base was just happenstance.   In 2007 the twins name him their 3rd baseman   and some fans don't like it because they think a power guy should be there.   He takes that to heart and starts swinging for the fences with horrible results..     Just my opinion but when Punto just tried to make contact he was a .280 hitter.  When he tried to hit for power he hit .180 and without power and he tried to hit for power way too often. 

Same thing with Mauer.   He's at first base now, he should be stronger without having to catch all the time so he starts swinging harder and earlier trying to pull the ball for power.   Its just not him.    2nd half he goes back to his old ways and goes the opposite way and teams shifted to the left and pitched so he would have to hit to the shift.    He got a bit frustrated when he would sting the ball a couple times only to make outs because of the shift but to me this is ideal.   He has always appeared to make better contact hitting middle out pitches to center or left of center.   Who cares if the shift catches more of them?.  That should be more than offset by hitting the ball solidly more often.    I have never cared if Mauer hit a lot of home runs.   Give me an .880 OPS and you won't hear a peep from me if he doesn't hit a home run all year.

[jimmer]

I believe the concussion affected him as did the move to 1st base and expectations that go along with it.  To me its kind of like the LNP syndrome.   When Punto was the utility infielder in 2006 he had a great year just gong where they needed him which just happened to be mostly 3rd base.    No extra pressure.  He just did what he did best and the fact they needed him at 3rd base was just happenstance.   In 2007 the twins name him their 3rd baseman   and some fans don't like it because they think a power guy should be there.   He takes that to heart and starts swinging for the fences with horrible results..     Just my opinion but when Punto just tried to make contact he was a .280 hitter.  When he tried to hit for power he hit .180 and without power and he tried to hit for power way too often. 

Same thing with Mauer.   He's at first base now, he should be stronger without having to catch all the time so he starts swinging harder and earlier trying to pull the ball for power.   Its just not him.    2nd half he goes back to his old ways and goes the opposite way and teams shifted to the left and pitched so he would have to hit to the shift.    He got a bit frustrated when he would sting the ball a couple times only to make outs because of the shift but to me this is ideal.   He has always appeared to make better contact hitting middle out pitches to center or left of center.   Who cares if the shift catches more of them?.  That should be more than offset by hitting the ball solidly more often.    I have never cared if Mauer hit a lot of home runs.   Give me an .880 OPS and you won't hear a peep from me if he doesn't hit a home run all year.

I'm not sure about the Punto comparison.  I think he just hit out of his mind one year, I don't think that was his actual level of talent. He fell back down to what he was.

 

Mauer is the opposite in that his talent level has always been high and he just had a bad year.  Other than that, I completely agree.  I also don't care about HR.  He has almost always been VERY good at creating runs even with hitting relatively few HR, and it doesn't matter to me how they are created as long as they are created.

[nater79a]

MLB.com has only had 1 or 2 first basemen in their pre-season top-100 prospects for a few years now. Generally, one of the weaker positions for new blood coming into the league. Quite often the top 1B are transplants from another position.