Mid Offseason Grades for AL Central Teams for on paper improvement

[Brandon]

A lot of moves have taken place in the AL Central so far this offseason.  Chicago has made a lot of noise and Detroit and Kansas City has made some moves and Cleveland just signed Gavin Floyd to go with their trade for Moss.  How do these moves affect these teams and who are the incoming players replacing?  If they are like Ervin Santana replacing Correia that is a huge upgrade while Chicago's signing of LaRoche is a good move he replaces a similar hitter in Adam Dunn so the net effect of this move is not as big.  That's not to say Chicago hasn't made big strides this offseason so here goes.

 

I think Chicago then Minnesota have had the best overall offseasons so far.

 

For Chicago Cabrera has a 70 point on base percentage increase over Viciedo who he replaces in the OF which is exactly what Chicago needs, someone who can get on base in the number 2 or 3 hole.  LaRoche replaces Dunn in the lineup and protects Abreu with his 25 HR power. Chicago's rotation gets a boost from Smardzija who is replacing I guess Carroll in the rotation which is a huge upgrade and their bullpen was horrific last season so Carroll going to long reliever and with Robertson moving everyone else down in the pecking order and Duke providing some stability really help that pen. 

 

Chicago still needs some help in the field as who is playing 2nd base?  I hear they have internal options I just don't follow them enough to know.  Also do they have depth in case of injury?  This is a team built to contend now and maybe next year but the window of opportunity is small.  Their farm system looks barren from where I sit. I give Chicago an A for being able to contend on paper next year but it may be more of a B since they do not have much depth in case of injuries and no Farm System what so ever if they decide to change course for a rebuild. 

 

All in all Chicago has had the best offseason so far.

 

Minnesota has had the 2nd best

Signing Ervin Santana to bolster the rotation is huge. Santana essentially replaces Corriea in the rotation and in a sense should save the team 40 runs on the pitching side.  Signing Hunter doesn't do much to help the OF defense but he does bring a bat capable of helping us stay a top offense in the league next year.  He also is being counted on to help Hicks find his way.  Hunter in a sense replaces Kubel and Willingham and Parmelee to some extent. 

 

the Twins could use some help in the bullpen but they do have numerous candidates to consider in the spring and may continue to add. So far a B+, Minnesota filled 2 holes with players who are not blocking anyone though we may have a pitcher blocked in the rotation Santana won't be the one doing it as he is their 2nd best starter now right behind Hughes and Hunter is only here on a 1 year deal. 

 

Cleveland is now close behind the Twins in their offseason by signing Gavin Floyd.  Cleveland had 8 starters with 14 or more starts so I am going to say that he is replacing the injured Masterson and potentially someone else too.

Moss was traded for to help out at 1b and DH I didn't see a DH on the roster other than their 1B Santana.  But he adds depth and is a good bet for 20-30 HRs.  Its hard to ay what this team needs more of to improve.  Maybe some on base type hitter and some bullpen depth but this is a young solid team. Cleveland gets a B too as Moss is a big win for them and Floyd is a good depth move and possibly a good number 3/4 starter. 

 

Kansas city has held steady except for the expected loss of Shields.  They essentially traded Butler for Morales and its debatable who is the better hitter or if both of them have passed their primes.  They did resign their bullpen pieces Frasor and Hochevar and I do believe that Rios can be an upgrade over Aoki probably not on defense but definitely with the bat.  The Royals did sign some decent depth pieces including Pino from the Twins.  But their offseason hinges on what happens to Shields.  If they can resign him they will likely be contenders again and if not they need to find someone who can step in. I like what they did to keep their bullpen and get more depth and I am not sure how to look at Rios and Morales vs Butler and Aoki as improvements or not.  so for those moves they get a C+/B- and an incomplete till we see how they handle Shields rotation spot.  I don't expect him to resign but they do need to do something significant to hold steady and holding steady with that big of a potential loss would be huge for this team.

 

Detroit is in a similar situation with Scherzer.  They at least hedged with trading for Price.  Other than that they have made some nice moves to get Cepedas which is an upgrade over Hunter in that Cepedas is a better fielder at this stage of his career.  They resigned their best hitter to maintain status quo for now and be a financial burden later.  And they also traded for Green and Simon to round out their rotation but going from Scherzer to Simon is going to hurt anyway you look at that. I feel that Detroit is at the beginning of the end of their reign unless ownership really pens up the wallet.  I see them contending this year and we'll see after that.  For this offseason I give them a B-/C+ as their other needs are addressed and they even found a downgraded replacement for Scherzer but Detroit is holding steady instead of moving toward being a better team and that is why they get a lower grade then they probably should.

 

At this point Chicago has had the best offseason as they went from door matt to contender and just a few pieces away from being ready.  The Twins filled 2 of their 3 biggest holes choosing to believe either Hicks will step up with Hunter there or Santana can go back out there.  Cleveland has added a slugger and rotation depth and lost only Masterson.  Kansas City and Detroit have both made some good moves but seem to be treading water overall.

 

What are your thoughts on how the division is shaping up for next season?

[kab21]

ESPN with projections from fangraphs just wrote an article about where the teams stand now.  They like the Sox moves but didn't really give them a nice projection.  http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/53956/path-to-the-playoffs-al-central

[tobi0040]

The interesting thing about the Royals is that their record outperformed their run differential last year.  They only scored 27 more runs, yet were 16 games above .500.  Then they lose Shields and potentially get some regression out of Ventura (FIP of 3.60 versus a 3.20 ERA).  They look like a .500 team.

 

With the White Sox, I think Abreu regresses quite a bit and that knocks out some of the gains they have added in free agency.  I also don't know when, but Sale's delivery looks like a long term vulnerability.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I like that all the teams in the AL Central seem to be improving. It should make for some exciting baseball at Target Field in 2015.

[Otto von Ballpark]

"Grades" are problematic because they really need to be more cumulative to be meaningful (Twins don't really deserve a higher grade simply because their terrible rotation was easier to upgrade), and also who's grading criteria do you use?  I am sure if the Twins set their own criteria, they would be near an A -- they got their veteran RH outfield bat -- but most observers had a different criteria for them (dramatically improve the OF defense).

 

Personally, I'd put the White Sox closer to a B at this point -- they still have a few positions to address -- and Twins closer to a C+ -- passing, but not really standout work.  Of course, the Twins will have the opportunity to earn a lot of A's during the coming seasons if they can convert their minor league talent into major league performers.

 

Indians are probably in that C+ territory too, Kansas City might be a step lower at C after that Kendrys Morales signing.

 

I'd probably schedule a parent-teacher conference to discuss the Tigers trade for Alfredo Simon.

[tobi0040]

I'd probably schedule a parent-teacher conference to discuss the Tigers trade for Alfredo Simon.

 

Thru 7/30, Simon had a 2.84 ERA. His BABIP was .244.  FIP 4.36, xFIP 3.96.  Left 83% on base.  Struck out 5.68 per 9.

 

Ended the year with a 3.44 ERA as things normalized.  Career rates    75% LOB, .282 BABIP. Same K rate basically.  Really a silly trade for them.

[Kwak]

Considering that the futures of Scherzer/Detroit and Shields/KC are the two biggest impacts it's too early to make a sound judgement.  CHI undoubtably helped themselves more than any any of the rest.  I must disagree with the analysis of the Twins.  Corriera had already been replaced (internally)--and there were/are several backup options already in-place.  Santana is basically a security blankee for the team.  Hunter is for selling tickets--not winning more games.  The other three did make improvements to their teams, but the impact of Scherzer and Shields contract decision(s) is so large that final grades for DET and KC must wait.

 

Speculating on future player performances--is just that, and concluding that someone will regress simply because they had a solid year is nothing more than guessing.  Sadly, it appears that out favorite team is destined for 5th place unless some of the "prospects" are promoted to the Twins and significantly outperform the incumbent veterans.  I'm not holding my breath that the FO will make that leap this season.

[jokin]

"Grades" are problematic because they really need to be more cumulative to be meaningful (Twins don't really deserve a higher grade simply because their terrible rotation was easier to upgrade), and also who's grading criteria do you use?  I am sure if the Twins set their own criteria, they would be near an A -- they got their veteran RH outfield bat -- but most observers had a different criteria for them (dramatically improve the OF defense).

 

Personally, I'd put the White Sox closer to a B at this point -- they still have a few positions to address -- and Twins closer to a C+ -- passing, but not really standout work.  Of course, the Twins will have the opportunity to earn a lot of A's during the coming seasons if they can convert their minor league talent into major league performers.

 

Indians are probably in that C+ territory too, Kansas City might be a step lower at C after that Kendrys Morales signing.

 

I'd probably schedule a parent-teacher conference to discuss the Tigers trade for Alfredo Simon.

 

Great post, although I'd probably give the White Sox a B+ to this point. They still have to address some holes, but if we are grading on a curve, no one in the division to this point has filled more holes, with such significant upgrades.  And they appear to be the team most motivated to make more significant improvements.

 

KC seems to be reverting to their old selves, questionable upgrades (signed both Pino and Morales? Rios and his leg injuries are a bit of a gamble. The White Sox got LHRP Dan Jennings from the Marlins, clearly a better deal than the Royals getting Marlins' LHRP Brian Flynn), and now seem to be playing the waiting game and hope one of the available arms becomes cheap before ST.  

 

It looks like the heirs to the Illitch estate are shutting off the unlimited taps on the payroll- they seem to be in the process of completely dismantling a once-formidable rotation- why wouldn't you sign a FA OF instead of trading off yet another proven SP (and substituting Porcello with Alfredo Simon?). 2015 might be their last year with the Tigers as the clear pre-season favorite in the Central.  

 

Cleveland has the pitching and the manager and Moss can help the lineup, but Floyd's contribution is sketchy at best... and they don't appear to have any inclination to expand the payroll any further. 

[Brandon]

Great post, although I'd probably give the White Sox a B+ to this point. They still have to address some holes, but if we are grading on a curve, no one in the division to this point has filled more holes, with such significant upgrades.  And they appear to be the team most motivated  to make more significant improvements.

 

KC seems to be reverting to their old selves, questionable upgrades (signed both Pino and Morales? Rios and his leg injuries are a bit of a gamble. The White Sox got LHRP Dan Jennings from the Marlins, clearly a better deal than the Royals getting Marlins' LHRP Brian Flynn), and now seem to be playing the waiting game and hope one of the available arms becomes cheap before ST.  It looks like the heirs to the Illitch estate are shutting off the unlimited taps on the payroll- they seem to be in the process of completely dismantling a once-formidable rotation- why wouldn't you sign a FA OF instead of trading off yet another proven SP (and substituting Porcello with Alfredo Simon?). 2015 might be their last year with the Tigers as the clear pre-season favorite in the Central.  Cleveland has the pitching and the manager and Moss can help the lineup, but Floyd's contribution is sketchy at best... and they don't appear to have any inclination to expand the payroll any further. 

The whitesox are hard to grade.  The improved their rotation by leaps and bounds.  their bullpen went from weakness to almost a strength.  They could use another reliever or two.  Laroche replaces Dunn who retired so he isn't an upgrade but he keeps them from going backwards.  Cabrera is a huge upgrade in on base percentage which Chicago sorely needs.  They do need a 2B as far as I can tell and a few relievers to finish their offseason and the other thing is they need to learn to play together quick because their projected window of opportunity is not long and I think they are positioned to remain in a state of being a .500 team for a while as they continue to patch holes as they spring up over the next few years without getting enough talent to win overall. 

[Brandon]

KC seems to be reverting to their old selves, questionable upgrades (signed both Pino and Morales? Rios and his leg injuries are a bit of a gamble. The White Sox got LHRP Dan Jennings from the Marlins, clearly a better deal than the Royals getting Marlins' LHRP Brian Flynn), and now seem to be playing the waiting game and hope one of the available arms becomes cheap before ST.  It looks like the heirs to the Illitch estate are shutting off the unlimited taps on the payroll- they seem to be in the process of completely dismantling a once-formidable rotation- why wouldn't you sign a FA OF instead of trading off yet another proven SP (and substituting Porcello with Alfredo Simon?). 2015 might be their last year with the Tigers as the clear pre-season favorite in the Central.  Cleveland has the pitching and the manager and Moss can help the lineup, but Floyd's contribution is sketchy at best... and they don't appear to have any inclination to expand the payroll any further. 

I see KC as a 75-80 win team with a decent starter to fill in for Shields.  I see the Twins as an 80-85 win team with their moves and continued development.  I think there are several players who will return to form (Mauer and Nolasco) and continued improvement from other like Hicks, Arcia, Plouffe bullpen pieces and May/ Millone, I see Suzuki, Santana, maybe Vargas, and Escobar as potential regression candidates. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

A couple things to factor in - who had the most holes to fill? Which team has the most payroll flexibility? Which teams have the greatest needs?

 

I think if the grading is weighted, ranked, on a bell curve, whatever; it seems like the White Sox had the most work to do.

 

I don't think I'd give any team an F at this point, but I don't think anyone has aced the offseason (yet).

 

Kansas City - additions: Kendrys Morales, Alex Rios, Yohan Pino. Losses: James Shields, Nori Aoki, Billy Butler, Josh Willingham, Raul Ibañez.

I think KC should get an 'F' for the Morales deal, but that's just me being overly harsh. It's still possible that it won't blow up in their faces. They still have a lot of work to do, though, if they want to keep up with everyone else in the Central. GRADE: C- 

 

Detroit - additions: Alfredo Simon, Shane Greene, Yoenis Cespedes. Losses: Rick Porcello, Torii Hunter, Max Scherzer, Eugenio Suarez, Robbie Ray.

Their biggest issue last year was the bullpen. They haven't fixed that, and they are weaker in the starting rotation now too. Losing their ace is going to hurt big time. I expect Cespedes to have better offensive numbers than Torii, and retaining Victor Martinez was a big key to maintaining quality on offense. They need to improve their pitching and their defense . . . again. GRADE: D

 

Cleveland - additions: Brandon Moss, Gavin Floyd Losses: none of significance

Unlike the teams above them in the standings, they kept their #1, Corey Kluber, and have some nice depth in the rotation. They have a nice collection of expensive (or at least overpriced) old dudes in the outfield, they may find a trade partner to take Murphy or Swisher off their hands, but they would be lucky to get much back. They have some good pieces in the infield, their shopping list is usually short in the offseason.

Cleveland gets a better grade just by virtue of hanging onto their best players and adding a little pop and a little depth. GRADE: C+

 

Chicago - additions: Jeff Samardzjia, Melky Cabrera, David Robertson, Zach Duke, Adam LaRoche  Losses: Marcus Semien, Paul Konerko

The White Sox definitely went for quantity so far this offseason, and there has been a fair amount of quality mixed in. Adding The Shark to the rotation that already featured Chris Sale and Jose Quintana will make a big difference on its own. The White Sox also have made significant waves in the bullpen, paying big bucks for the proven-est of the proven closers on the market, and picking up an under-the-radar success story in lefty Zach Duke. The offense also improved, with Chicago adding protection for Jose Abreu in the form of Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche. The sheer volume of holes in the roster and the needs they still have behind the plate and at second base are the only thing keeping them from an "A." Keep in mind that the off-season is still far from over. Grade: B+

 

Minnesota - additions: Torii Hunter, Ervin Santana, J.R. Graham (Rule V) Losses: Colabello, Swarzak, Parmelee

Outfield defense and pitching depth were two major points of concern for the Twins heading into the offseason. They picked up a 9 time gold glove winner (*) and a solid starting pitcher from the Free Agent market. Hunter provides a veteran bat and tasty, tasty veteran leadership. Santana has been durable and effective and can provide better than league average innings for the Twins, which would be a welcome sight to see. Time will tell if they will make any more moves to make room for the prospects soon to arrive, or to address the need for outfield defense and pitching depth.

(* recent results may vary)

Grade: C

[Willihammer]

I kinda wonder what Moustakas is going to do after the playoff run he had.

[Brandon]

The Royals just signed Edison Volquez for 2/20.  That's what MLBtraderumors predicted he'd get but how close will he get to matching Shields numbers?  80%?  Seems like Kansas City did the best they could with what they had but still lost ground overall.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

yeah, Volquez is a nice addition, it will be tough for him to come from Pittsburgh to the AL Central and have as much success as A) James Shields or Volquez in the NL.

 

I think it was a good move for KC, though, no question about that. Just maybe not enough.

[tobi0040]

yeah, Volquez is a nice addition, it will be tough for him to come from Pittsburgh to the AL Central and have as much success as A) James Shields or Volquez in the NL.

 

I think it was a good move for KC, though, no question about that. Just maybe not enough.

 

It is not a bad move because it is only  two year deal and he has upside.  But I am always very wary of the guys with funky deliveries.  They seem to either have it or not from year to year.  Tim Lincecum, Dontrelle Willis, and Volquez too.  He as great last year, but the last really good season prior was back in 2008.

[tobi0040]

yeah, Volquez is a nice addition, it will be tough for him to come from Pittsburgh to the AL Central and have as much success as A) James Shields or Volquez in the NL.

 

I think it was a good move for KC, though, no question about that. Just maybe not enough.

 

It is not a bad move because it is only  two year deal and he has upside.  But I am always very wary of the guys with funky deliveries.  They seem to either have it or not from year to year.  Tim Lincecum, Dontrelle Willis, and Volquez too.  He as great last year, but the last really good season prior was back in 2008.

[kab21]

I expect volquez and Morales to be awful this year.  Rios is alright but I would give the Royals a D for their offseason if not an F.

 

The Twins get a C- for lack of creativity.

 

White Sox - at least a B for using their resources (money) to make the team better.  I think they (GM) realize if they don't spend the money then it's of no use (other than to the owner).

 

Indians - I like the Moss deal but I can't remember anything else they did so I will withhold their grade.

 

Tiger - An incomplete.  if they are finished then they get a D/F.  Resigning VMart was an awful move at 4 years.  Trading for Shane Greene was decent.  Swapping Porcello and Cespedes is solid after acquiring Greene.  But this team hasn't taken a step forward (yet) with an aging team.

[Paul Pleiss]

I love arbitrary rating/grading systems based largely on conjecture and projection.

 

Chicago White Sox - 5 bananas out of 7 possible. They've nearly got a bunch together! Bannana splits on the South Side this summer! Yum!

 

Minnesota Twins - 3 Crayons out of an 8 crayon box set. It's enough for children's menu item activities before/during dinner, but not really enough for quality crayola magic.

 

Cleveland Indians - 6 eggs out of an 18 pack. You've got enough to make breakfast for a day or two, but certaintly not enough to entertain your friends for brunch.

 

Kansas City Royals - 33 problems out of a possible 99, and yet still a B is not one. Maybe they should call Dr. Dre, word is that he has experience dealing with a lot of problems at one time.

 

Detroit Tigers - 1 out of 5 stars on a Yelp restaurant review, because on Yelp you can't give less than one star. Yelp classifies 1 star as "Eek! Methinks not" which I think is an accurate when describing the Tigers off-season so far.

[ashbury]

I love arbitrary rating/grading systems based largely on conjecture and projection.

 

Chicago White Sox - 5 bananas out of 7 possible. They've nearly got a bunch together! Bannana splits on the South Side this summer! Yum!

 

Minnesota Twins - 3 Crayons out of an 8 crayon box set. It's enough for children's menu item activities before/during dinner, but not really enough for quality crayola magic.

 

Cleveland Indians - 6 eggs out of an 18 pack. You've got enough to make breakfast for a day or two, but certaintly not enough to entertain your friends for brunch.

 

Kansas City Royals - 33 problems out of a possible 99, and yet still a B is not one. Maybe they should call Dr. Dre, word is that he has experience dealing with a lot of problems at one time.

 

Detroit Tigers - 1 out of 5 stars on a Yelp restaurant review, because on Yelp you can't give less than one star. Yelp classifies 1 star as "Eek! Methinks not" which I think is an accurate when describing the Tigers off-season so far.

This post is awarded 0.007 colorless green ideas sleeping furiously.  Which might be a pretty good score, or not.

[Paul Pleiss]

This post is awarded 0.007 colorless green ideas sleeping furiously.  Which might be a pretty good score, or not.

 

Furiously sleep ideas green colorless at a .007 level seems to be, by all accounts, a marvelous score. Thank you for your kind words.