2015 MLB Draft Thread

[Pius Jefferson]

Can we go back and look at where Gordon and Stewart ranked in their respective classes initially?

[diehardtwinsfan]

There were 3 draft threads in the minor league forum. I've merged them. Enjoy, this will be a very fun topic over the next year. My 2 cents, my hope is that the BPA is a potential top shelf pitcher. At 6, it's likely there. Only exception would be an impact college corner OF bat (assuming the Twins don't solve that need this offseason).

[Brock Beauchamp]

It bothers the hell out of me that the Astros get to pick at two and five this year.

 

Yeah, I know it's the rules but after the crap they pulled this summer, they deserve to lose that second overall pick.

[Mike Sixel]

I think it is a dumb rule. Either sign the guy, or lose the guy. Too bad, so sad.

[markos]

First, I just want to say that I'm super excited for this draft thread. The 2014 thread was fantastic last year - a great place to share information and have smart discussion. I hope 2015 is similar.

 

Second, I think Daz Cameron is the favorite right now. As a toolsy high school outfielder with solid bloodlines, he seems to check most of the boxes the Twins like. As far as my personal pick, I liked Aiken a lot last year and right now he would be my pick. Yes, it is way too early, but still fun. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Can we go back and look at where Gordon and Stewart ranked in their respective classes initially?

 

here's an article from February 2013 - Gordon was among the top three H.S. prospects then:

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=8030

 

"Catcher/outfielder Alex Jackson (Rancho Bernardo High, San Diego), shortstop/righthander Nick Gordon (Olympia High, Windermere, Fla.) and righthander Touki Toussaint (Coral Springs Charter High, Coral Springs, Fla.) are the top three rated high-school players in next year’s class."

 

The Twins Daily 2014 Draft Thread (from Feb 2014):

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/9583-2014-mlb-draft-thread/page-1

[gunnarthor]

Another draft nugget - Mac Marshall, who was part of the Astros fiasco, is transferring from LSU to a junior college, making himself eligible for the draft.  He's probably not in the mix in the early first round but (right now) he's probably looked at as a solid second round talent who could easily play himself up into the first round.  Probably not top 10 but still, depth.

 

It looks like all three kids screwed over by the Astros - Aiken, Nix and Marshall - will be in this years draft.  Additionally, according to fangraphs, a lot of the top kids in this draft are represented by Casey Close, who represented Aiken and Nix and with whom the Astros burned some serious bridges.  That might affect their draft strategy.

 

And lastly, the Astros still have a Nix grievance and it could, hypothetically, force them to sign him and cost them their next two first round picks.  Which would be so great it certainly won't happen.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/mac-marshall-transferring-lsu-eligible-2015-draft/

[diehardtwinsfan]

Yeah, I'd like Aiken... I wonder given the medical report and the fact that the Astros can't draft him if he'd fall to 6. Would the Twins take him at 6? I'd be thrilled if they did.

 

As for the grievance, I really hope they are forced to honor their agreement with Nix. Then the Twins would be drafting 5th.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, I'd like Aiken... I wonder given the medical report and the fact that the Astros can't draft him if he'd fall to 6. Would the Twins take him at 6? I'd be thrilled if they did.

 

As for the grievance, I really hope they are forced to honor their agreement with Nix. Then the Twins would be drafting 5th.

Two points - first, I do think the Twins would take Aiken if he fell to 6.  Second, if the Astros lose some picks, the picks stay per the CBA with the players union.  They just go to a different team.  (They'd lose this years #6 and next years first pick but keep this year's #2 as a 'reward' for failing to sign Aiken).  My understanding is that the picks will go to two teams randomly selected.  So, the best case scenario would be the Twins getting the #5 and #6 picks.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Two points - first, I do think the Twins would take Aiken if he fell to 6.  Second, if the Astros lose some picks, the picks stay per the CBA with the players union.  They just go to a different team.  (They'd lose this years #6 and next years first pick but keep this year's #2 as a 'reward' for failing to sign Aiken).  My understanding is that the picks will go to two teams randomly selected.  So, the best case scenario would be the Twins getting the #5 and #6 picks.

 

That would be nice... 1/29 chance though, so I'm not holding my breath.

[amjgt]

I have no idea about how that process would work, but it seems to me that the reason for that requirement in the CBA is so that draft slot and draft pool money wasn't lost. With that said, it seems that it would make sense to slide everyone up one pick in the first round, then have the random lottery selection fall at the end of the round.

 

I mean could you imagine if it truly was a lottery for the 5th overall pick and some big market team won the pick? People would never stop crying foul.

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea about how that process would work, but it seems to me that the reason for that requirement in the CBA is so that draft slot and draft pool money wasn't lost. With that said, it seems that it would make sense to slide everyone up one pick in the first round, then have the random lottery selection fall at the end of the round.

 

I mean could you imagine if it truly was a lottery for the 5th overall pick and some big market team won the pick? People would never stop crying foul.

 

Agree with this 100%.....not to mention years of conspiracy theories....

[TRex]

Yeah, I'd like Aiken... I wonder given the medical report and the fact that the Astros can't draft him if he'd fall to 6. Would the Twins take him at 6? I'd be thrilled if they did.

 

As for the grievance, I really hope they are forced to honor their agreement with Nix. Then the Twins would be drafting 5th.

I would be thrilled with Aiken too! Plus, considering he may very likely NOT allow Houston to negotiate with him (and even if he does, will they be willing to pony up the $'s he would ask?) it is like we are drafting #4!

[cmb0252]

A few weeks ago Clint Longenecker answered the question who's in the running to go 1-1 next year for BA's ask BA segment. It is an interesting read. This paragraph sticks out to me:

 

"There is no player currently in the 2015 draft class that the industry considers a “no-doubt 1-1″ pick along the lines of Harper, whom you mentioned. The top of the draft class has a lot of uncertainty, which is not typical at this point in the draft calendar after all of the looks teams have had this summer."

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ask-ba-whose-running-go-1-1-next-year/

[drjim]

A few weeks ago Clint Longenecker answered the question who's in the running to go 1-1 next year for BA's ask BA segment. It is an interesting read. This paragraph sticks out to me:

 

"There is no player currently in the 2015 draft class that the industry considers a “no-doubt 1-1″ pick along the lines of Harper, whom you mentioned. The top of the draft class has a lot of uncertainty, which is not typical at this point in the draft calendar after all of the looks teams have had this summer."

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ask-ba-whose-running-go-1-1-next-year/

 

Is it true that it's not typical? It seems that a surefire 1-1 and set top of the draft has been the rarer occurrence the last several drafts. 2011 seems to be the exception not the rule.

[nater79a]

My pick put in stone: Kyle Funkhouser. Mark It Down. 

 

I like this pick too.  Mainly because I want to hear people say this name five times fast after one too many beers!

[markos]

Keith Law and Chris Crawford released their top-30 ranking for the 2015 draft. 

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=2128

 

It is an Insider piece so I won't share everything, but the here are some interesting details:

 

- 6 of the top 7 players are pitchers.

- 3 shortstops in the top 13.

 

Overall, it looks to be a good draft for pitchers. 

[drock2190]

So what happens if Houston fails to sign their picks again this next year?

 

I'm really interested on how many picks they could compile in a future draft.

[Mike Sixel]

I read it also, markos......very top heavy with pitchers.

[diehardtwinsfan]

So what happens if Houston fails to sign their picks again this next year?

 

I'm really interested on how many picks they could compile in a future draft.

Their compensation pick for losing Aiken (1-2) is not protected. If they don't sign that pick, they lose it, which means they will go with someone a bit safer with that pick. I'd love it if Boras and Close represented everyone going in the top 5-10 picks. I'd find that rather amusing as Houston would taken to the cleaners by either one of those agents if they selected one of their clients at 2.

 

That said, I really hope they are forced to honor those contracts.

[twinsfanstreif]

I'm an avid Draft nut and I know it's early but I wanted to highlight some of the potential Targets for next year's draft. Of course there will be some risers (ala Jon Grey/Kyle Zimmer) and some that will fall (Sean Manaea) but with technology, advanced stats, and better scouting info a lot of these guys will stay in a similar spot if they perform like they should. Here's my top 10 list in order of my preference (as of now), obviously some of these guys might be out of reach at #6 but it's worth noting all of our options:

 

1. Michael Matuella, RHP, Duke - size and plus 4 pitch mix make him an attractive option, most likely will be gone

 

2. Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia - Left handed and electric stuff, highlighted by a 18 K no-hit game vs Pitt this year

 

3. Phil Bickford, RHP, Southern Nevada CC - Apparently has improved from the 2013 draft where he went #10 overall, I'd still like to see more Ks but he's been very good, will go to JUCO to be draft eligable

 

4. Brady Aiken, LHP, Yavapai CC - I liked him a lot last year and still think the Kershaw comps are pretty good, the UCL thing worries me a bit but if he makes it to #6 then we have to pull the trigger

 

5. Daz Cameron, OF, HS - a Buxton clone, son of former MLer Mike Cameron, probably will be gone

 

6. Justin Hooper, LHP, HS - Huge kid with 97+ MPH fastball, could add some ticks to that as well, I've heard he's a little raw but could be a Giolito type, Randy Johnson upside with this kid

 

7. Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt - Kinda small (6'1" 165) but could add some bulk, he's been as consistant as anyone and looks like an Aaron Nola type of guy, I liked Nola last year and he's been solid so far, Buehler could be similar. The downside is years of Farris Buehler jokes that will get old really quick.

 

8. Trenton Clark, OF, HS - Tore it up for team USA (.538/.655/.923), not as athletic as Cameron but has a good arm in the OF and has more power potential.

 

9. Brendan Rodgers, SS, HS - The best SS in the class, has top 5 potential but I put him down here because we don't need any more MIs and we drafted a HS SS last year, I know BPA and all but I don't care, he'll probably be gone anyways.

 

10. Alex Bregman, SS, LSU - Best college SS, might have to move to 2B. He's a solid overall player who is praised for his leadership the only problem is he doesn't have any tools that stick out. Reminds me too much of Gordon Beckham when he was coming out of college and that doesn't sit well with me.

 

Sleepers: Mike Nikorak, RHP, HS - Big body, Big fastball, could make some noise

 

Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly Pomona - from a small school but scouts are just now noticing him, could rise fast

 

James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA - Just converted to a starter last year and looked good, could rise if he adds some ticks to his FB

 

Jake Lemoine, RHP, Houston - I had to add this guy from my alma mater, I've seen him in person and he just mowed down hitters, doesn't have the command that we'd like to see but he has a very good 3 pitch mix that could improve this year. Houston got a new pitching coach last year and Lemoine thrived under him, hopefully he can take a step forward, if not he's an option for the 2nd round

 

So obviously I want a college starter to boost our rotation and there are plently of options this year but this years draft looks to be a very good one.

[nytwinsfan]

What about Funkhouser? And although I mostly agree with this list based on what little I know (although maybe not Rogers being 9), a lot of scouts seem to like Aiken and maybe Buehler ahead of Bickford. Overall its a good list though.

[twinsfanstreif]

Funkhouser profiles more as a reliever, he's hot on some lists right now but I can see him dropping just like Cederoth did last year. He has electric stuff but will probably end up being a closer, that's fine if you're down in the draft but not at #6, that's why I dropped him. This is just my list in order of preference not in how good I think they are. I like Aikin's stuff better than Bickford but his UCL scares me and Buehler's size is why he's lower. I like Rogers and he's probably the 4th or 5th best player in the draft but he profiles so similar to Gordon I don't like the idea of drafting pretty much the same guy 2 years in a row, that's why I prefer someone else.

[maxisagod]

For Aiken to fall to the Twins (assume he doesn't give the Astros permission to draft him again) The Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Rangers would have to pass on him. Not impossible.  Someone going to try to cut a deal I'm guessing Colorado or Texas plays that card before the Twins could offer him slot. His Left handed power arm would look great in The Twins system. So would Kirby or Hopper. Whenever there is draft that looks Pitching heavy, a position player rises farther than he should. That might benefit the Twins greatly. 

[DocBauer]

Way too early in the game at this point for me to accurately point toward any real favorites. But considering the overall depth of talent in the organization, not

sure there is any real "need" spot that strikes me, save a real, true, power armed LHSP prospect. I love the potential of Thorpe and Gonsalves, but if there was a top LHSP prospect available to the Twins, or dare I wish for an older, college age LH

available, I think that would be my most earnest hope.

 

Excited Turner and Garver at C, but a top of the line catcher prospect would right near the top of my list.

 

Other than that, I honestly think the Twins are in the BPA phase with little

concern.

[nater79a]

Never too early to talk draft! Good list.

 

Few thoughts:

 

1. I wouldn't hesitate to take another SS (Rodgers or Bregman) if they are the top player on the board. They're far enough away from the major leagues that they're really just assets at this point. Some will fail. Some may get traded. Some will need to change positions. Throw them in a hopper with Gordon and whatever happens, happens.

 

2. Couple other HS pitchers to keep an eye on - Kolby Allard LHP San Clemente, CA and Ashe Russell Indianapolis, IN.  Russell is a big kid (6'4" 195) with a mid-90's FB (touches 97). Also, seen Allard mocked as high as the Red Sox at #7.

 

3. I think the only three players that will definitely be gone by the time the Twins pick at #6 are Aiken, Rodgers & Matuella.  Some mock drafts have Cameron and Bickford falling to the bottom part of the top 10. So the Twins may get a shot at those two.

[twinsfanstreif]

I still think there's a shot with Aiken, teams get really funny with potential injury risk. I also feel like the mocks that have Cameron falling in the bottom of the top 10 are insane, I think his tools alone will entice someone in the top 5, like I said, he looks like a Buxton clone and I wouldn't be surprised if he went 1.1

 

I like Allard a lot, don't know much about Russell. This is a pretty deep draft on the top end and it looks like we'll get a pick of quite a few good players

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm hoping a pitcher is the top player on the board. I'd be fine with Aiken. He's got ace potential, and if he's still there at their pick, I'd take him. Worth the risk in my opinion.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, way too early to get hoping for a guy but Cameron would be awesome at 6.  

[the_youngster]

After mlb.com's release of their top 50 draft prospects today, and some perusing, my new personal favorite for the Twins is definitely Kolby Allard. The kid is young, left handed, has some nice looking pitches, and my personal favorite: a really smooth delivery. I like the size and stuff of Justin Hooper, but when you watch him pitch... it's a really jerky-jerky and violent delivery. Work out the kinks in deliveries early to do as much as possible to avoid injuries down the road. A future duo of Kohl Stewart and Kolby Allard could, in theory, be a nice right/left front of a rotation.