Article: Twins Draft Preview: Mock Draft v.3.0

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/3065-Twins-Draft-Preview-Mock-Draft-v-3-0

[Seth Stohs]

I wonder if the Twins would be willing to draft Nick Burdi again if they fell to them at 46. Part of me thinks so, and part of me just wonders if they would go for a non-reliever.

[curt1965]

Jeremy- who was the Indiana kid who didn't sign with the Twins last year, and how high to you think he'll go this year?

[Jonathan Drayer]

If it came down to either Kolek or Gordon at #5, I would take Kolek. Of course we all know that he has a great fastball that can reach 100 mph, but I really like his curveball and his sharp slider. I'm okay with taking Gordon at #5, but only if Kolek is off the board by then because I think Kolek is the better prospect.

[Buxtano Meywart]

Jeremy- who was the Indiana kid who didn't sign with the Twins last year, and how high to you think he'll go this year?

 

Dustin DeMuth. Been wondering where he may end up going as well. Hope the Twins can end up grabbing him again.

[nicksaviking]

I wonder if the Twins would be willing to draft Nick Burdi again if they fell to them at 46. Part of me thinks so, and part of me just wonders if they would go for a non-reliever.

 

The Twins had a bunch of scouts at Louisville's regionals last week.

[Otwins]

Thanks for all your work on these articles. Very enjoyable. Schwarber hit two out at TD Ameritrade park (the home of the college world series) during the big 10 tournament. Very difficult park to hit the ball out of. The second one was a blast. I have not seen any ball leave that park quicker. Not suprised to see him moving up. MLB had Monte Harrison at 10- very athlectic player - I think he will go before 24.

[themattsonian]

I really hope they don't pass on Kolek at 5. Just seems to have the highest upside to me. Gordon would be fine if Kolek is off the board.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Jeremy, Thank you for your draft articles. They are enjoyable and informative.

[Craig Arko]

I'm perhaps being a sentimental fop, but I hope Sam Hentges goes with the Twins.

[Seth Stohs]

I'm perhaps being a sentimental fop, but I hope Sam Hentges goes with the Twins.

 

Agreed, but he may just be planning on going to college, or he'll sign for way over slot. However, the Twins are definitely not afraid to take local players.

[tobi0040]

I'm perhaps being a sentimental fop, but I hope Sam Hentges goes with the Twins.

 

This draft has a lot of moving parts.

 

I think the Cubs are pulling the ultimate smoke screen as you note. Nothing in Theo's history in Chicago or Boston suggests he is not going to draft the best player available and he doesn't care about taking the 10th best player to save money. I expect Aiken, Rodon, Jackson, or Kolek at #4.

 

I don't get why all the mocks have Touki 10-13th. He is 17 years old, his fastball is in the 94 range and he has the best curve in the draft, that is almost unanimous. Sure command worries, etc. but my gut says someone in the 7-10 range won't be able to look past that.

 

Then you have the Rodon thing. I personally don't think he goes back to school if he is taken 3-5. Appel going #1 was a huge coup for Boras and he will absolutely play that card, but #4 for example has a value of $4.6M and that team can pay more than that. So the risk/reward doesn't seem like it is there.

 

Getting to the Twins. I hope Aiken, Rodon, Jackson, or Kolek fall and we take whoever does. But I don't expect that to happen. I think we are picking between Newcomb and Gordon. I was looking up more information on Newcomb and I stumbled on his perfect game profile from 2011 as a senior in high school. It was interesting because his fastball sat at only 86 mph. Then when I read his profile now they say he sits mid 90's and can hit 96-97 and could add velocity (guessing because he has seen it jump). I hope if we are picking between those two, we take Newcomb.

 

6-5 lefty. fastball 50-65. Slider 55-70. Change 40-50. Command 40-50.

[Mike Sixel]

Why Newcomb over Touki? That makes zero sense to me. If it is really to save money, how is that going to work, with more than a half dozen teams having multiple picks in front of them.

 

IF it played out the way you suggest, I'd take Rodon, Gordon, Touki, ? in that order.

[tobi0040]

Why Newcomb over Touki? That makes zero sense to me. If it is really to save money, how is that going to work, with more than a half dozen teams having multiple picks in front of them.

 

IF it played out the way you suggest, I'd take Rodon, Gordon, Touki, ? in that order.

 

For me I prefer Newcomb because he is a lefty, 3 inches taller, and has 2-3 more mph on the fastball. Touki's curve is rated slightly higher than Newcomb's slider, but those other things are key.

[LewFordLives]

Jeremy: Is there anything you can say about why you believe that's the Twins draft board? Is it your own analysis based on various bits and pieces leaked from the front office, open media sources, or do you have an "inside source"?

[jed54767]

No way they take Toukki at 5. Too much risk and his price tag has been reported to be very high (most likely because of his Vandy commitment). Has upside but I wouldn't like that pick.

 

Newcomb should and needs to be our guy. We lack LHP and if we can add one who resembles Jon Lester then why not? He would sign for slot money and we could come back round 2 and grab the prep pitcher if we want.

 

I think the only 3 I would take before Newcomb are Jackson, Aiken, and Rodon. But I don't see them falling. My personal fave in this draft is Schwarber but he just doesn't fit the Twins needs.

 

I see Theo sitting at #4 waiting for Rodon to fall in his lap.

 

Let's go Twins!! Happy Draft Day!

[twinsfan34]

I wonder if the Twins would be willing to draft Nick Burdi again if they fell to them at 46. Part of me thinks so, and part of me just wonders if they would go for a non-reliever.

 

 

I would side (and hope) for a non-reliever. JT Chargois and Luke Bard were similar pick. Throws hard, but never would amount to a starter. I think most people (you included) tend to say, go with the hard throwing starter, if he can't develop a 3rd pitch, he can throw 2 pitches as a reliever or one if it's a plus-plus cutter, e.g. Jansen (LAD) and Rivera (NYY).

 

Hoping for high upside HS player who fell or a college SP who fell (a la Sean Manaea circa 2013).

[twinsfan34]

This draft has a lot of moving parts.

 

Then you have the Rodon thing. I personally don't think he goes back to school if he is taken 3-5. Appel going #1 was a huge coup for Boras and he will absolutely play that card, but #4 for example has a value of $4.6M and that team can pay more than that. So the risk/reward doesn't seem like it is there.

 

Yeah, I can't see Rodon not signing. He has some leverage this year...but wouldn't have much next year. Teams don't lose their pick anymore like the Twins did with Travis Lee...so teams aren't quite forced like they had been in the past, either.

 

I hope the Twins take the guy they like, signability concerns out the window, they can always draft #6 next year.