Official 2014 Draft Day Thread, Day 1

[markos]

I'd sign him for whatever amount, almost.....he's a future Ace. And could start in A ball and make high A this year.....not sure what $6MM would do to the Twins' pool.....

 

My quick, back-of-the-envelope calculations makes it seem like the Twins would need to save $1.4 million from their later picks in order to not lose their #1 pick next year.

 

MN Total Pool: $7.52M

#5 pick allocation: $3.85M

Remaining picks: $3.67M

 

$6.00M

- $3.85M

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$2.14M additional needed to sign Rodon.

 

They can go an addition $750K without losing a pick.

 

$2.14M

- $0.75M

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$1.39M The amount they need to save on their remaining 9 picks.

 

The is roughly 40% of their pool dedicated to those picks.

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Baseball Prospectous draft chat:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1165

[nicksaviking]

My quick, back-of-the-envelope calculations makes it seem like the Twins would need to save $1.4 million from their later picks in order to not lose their #1 pick next year.

 

Which means they might draft one of us in the 2nd round and pay us in Arby's coupon's.

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Crawford's draft chat is also up:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/06/live-mlb-draft-chat-400-est/

[Mike Sixel]

Ok, that baseball prospectus chat is great

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Can you tell me about Nick Gordon's offensive potential?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Potential plus hit tool, maybe better depending on how you view the added strength this spring, with a chance for average power if he gets a little more loft in the barrel. Could sacrifice some average for power, or pump the hit in exchange for closer to 40/45 pop on the 20-80 scale. Solid range of outcomes and has the feel for the game and make-up to take in instruction and reach that potential.

[Mike Sixel]

I like this one....

 

Shawnykid23 (CT): How would you compare the top 3 arms in this year's draft to last year's? Basically, ignoring MILB performance, only coming into the draft how would you rank Appel, Gray, Stewart, Aiken, Rodon, and Kolek?

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I'd strike Kolek and add Nola as third best arm in this class. Then give me Gray, Aiken, Rodon, Appel, Nola, Stewart. I could be talked into arranging the last three in basically any order. Also I could be talked into Aiken over Gray without much effort. How's that for hedging my bets?

[Mike Sixel]

Flash (Texas): Does Dee Gordon's long awaited development into a major league regular have any impact whatsoever on Nick's draft status? Does it give teams a little more to dream on, now that Dee looks like (for two months, anyway), a solid major league 2B.

Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Their games aren't really similar, nor is their physical makeup, so it's unlikely the developmental path of one will much affect opinions on the other. Nick is a more refined player is more physical than his brother, with a lot less speed.

[maxisagod]

Which means they might draft one of us in the 2nd round and pay us in Arby's coupon's.

 

Arby's! Their food taste more like paper money than you know... food.

[70charger]

Can someone shed light on what would be the disappointment in drafting Nola? I liked his numbers, stuff seems good (from reports), and he seems to be a fast mover with #2 upside and a higher floor than the Kolek's of the world. I'm all for Gordon or Nola, assuming the big 3 are off the board by the Twin's pick.

 

 

The disappointment I think stems from his (seemingly) limited upside compared to others available. Obviously - all things equal - you want to pick the guy with #1 upside over #2 upside, and I think that many posters here see other candidates as having that #1 upside that Nola lacks.

 

I look at it as a "well, if you're all out of lobster, I guess I'll have the filet" situation. Nobody is disappointed that we're not drafting Aiken because we all know that we won't get him. I guess what it comes down to is that "disappointment" is relative. I'd put Nola in my minor league system in a heartbeat. I just wouldn't do it if it meant I couldn't have my top choice.

[tobi0040]

Ok, that baseball prospectus chat is great

 

Faleris has Kolek 11th on his board and Law has Nola going to the White Sox. Crazy.

[tobi0040]

The disappointment I think stems from his (seemingly) limited upside compared to others available. Obviously - all things equal - you want to pick the guy with #1 upside over #2 upside, and I think that many posters here see other candidates as having that #1 upside that Nola lacks.

 

I look at it as a "well, if you're all out of lobster, I guess I'll have the filet" situation. Nobody is disappointed that we're not drafting Aiken because we all know that we won't get him. I guess what it comes down to is that "disappointment" is relative. I'd put Nola in my minor league system in a heartbeat. I just wouldn't do it if it meant I couldn't have my top choice.

 

My thoughts as well. Last off-season we signed Nolasco and Hughes, #2/3 starters. We almost had Garza too. Supply and demand issue.

[Mike Sixel]

Does the fact that there are waaaaaaaaaaaay more good pitchers available in the 2nd+ rounds change anyone's mind about taking hitting with pick 1? There isn't much hitting in this draft, from what I have read over the past month (and just read again now).

[gunnarthor]

Does the fact that there are waaaaaaaaaaaay more good pitchers available in the 2nd+ rounds change anyone's mind about taking hitting with pick 1? There isn't much hitting in this draft, from what I have read over the past month (and just read again now).

Not really. Just take BPA regardless of position. Twins arguably are a little light on impact hitters in the low minors so that would actually sway me more than how the draft is sitting but I'd still prefer BPA.

[Willihammer]

Baseball Prospectous draft chat:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1165

Spencer (Berkeley): As an admitted sofa-scout who's overdosed on youtube vids, scouting reports etc. Am I insane to have Touki near the top of "my pref list"? It seems like his ceiling approaches or even exceeds Kolek and Aiken; mechanics are solid-albeit inconsistent- and the stuff's electric.. that curve... Draft Day Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Touki is a worthy top five overall target, for me. I like the growth in his game over the last 18 months, lots of projection, relatively low-mileage on the arm, and you can't teach that spin rate on the curve.

[markos]

Not really. Just take BPA regardless of position. Twins arguably are a little light on impact hitters in the low minors so that would actually sway me more than how the draft is sitting but I'd still prefer BPA.

 

I agree. BPA in draft. However, I do think it is prudent for them to target bats by other avenues this year. If they end up trading veterans (Willingham, Suzuki, Correia), I hope they target position players rather than target more pitching like they have been for the last two years. The Span, Revere, Butera, Doumit, Morneau and Liriano trades yielded 7 pitchers and 2 hitters.

[nicksaviking]

Does the fact that there are waaaaaaaaaaaay more good pitchers available in the 2nd+ rounds change anyone's mind about taking hitting with pick 1? There isn't much hitting in this draft, from what I have read over the past month (and just read again now).

 

BPA for me, even if that means pitchers in the first five rounds.

 

Though to be fair, I'm so starved for front line pitching with this club I probably wouldn't say the same thing if it was hitter heavy and pitching weak.

[InfraRen]

From Crawford's chat:

 

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Comment From Nick

If Gordon is off the board, who do you see the Twins selecting?

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Chris Crawford:

I think they take Kolek if he's off the board. The rich get richer, either way. In the farm system, anyway.

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Comment From dose17

Is the hit tool the biggest question mark on Nick Gordon's scouting report?

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Chris Crawford:

I think the overall offensive upside is his biggest question. I think he's got a plus hit tool, and he has deceptive power, but industry doesn't completely agree.

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[gunnarthor]

From Crawford's chat:

 

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Comment From Nick

If Gordon is off the board, who do you see the Twins selecting?

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Chris Crawford:

I think they take Kolek if he's off the board. The rich get richer, either way. In the farm system, anyway.

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That's a good quote and a good reminder that the system is pretty strong, even with the front line injuries and last years graduations. Adding another top starter or legit shortstop is just gravy. Twins will probably have at least 6 top 100 guys next year (Buxton, Sano, Stewart, #5, Berrios, Thorpe). Maybe more.

[nicksaviking]

 

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Chris Crawford:

I think they take Kolek if he's off the board. The rich get richer, either way. In the farm system, anyway

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Ha, nice backhanded compliment there.

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Comment From Matt

When all is said and done who from this draft do you think will have the highest career WAR?

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Chris Crawford:

WAR? Ew. Nerds.

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Chris Crawford:

Had to be done. I think it'll actually be Gordon, just because of the defensive value. Could be Aiken though, for certain.

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[Heimer]

Anybody have interest in taking Hoffman with the 5th pick, he was rated number one before the TJ?

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Also, this on Thorpe:

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Comment From Ian

Where would Lewis Thorpe (18 year old Australian in MN system) go in this draft?

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Chris Crawford:

Probably not today, but probably not around for very long on Friday.

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Comment From Kyle

I like Nola more than Rodon, am I nuts?

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Chris Crawford:

Nope, not nuts. I get it. I'll still take Rodon's chance to be special, though. Nola at his very best is a quality No. 3. Rodon could be a true ace, assuming his college coach didn't ruin him with work and the fastball command is where it was as a sophomore.

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Also, Crawford has a big 4 of Aiken, Rodon, Gordon, and Kolek. No Jackson or Nola.

[Mike Sixel]

No, injured guys tend to get injured again. And, contrary to myth, velocity does not pick up to pre-injury levels after TJ....it only seems that way because they were injured before we knew it, and had decreasing velocity.....no interest at all.

 

Not with other really, really good choices there.

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Anybody have interest in taking Hoffman with the 5th pick, he was rated number one before the TJ?

 

Not me. Just too much talent up top that isn't going to miss the next year due to injury. Also, I think people forgot how inconsistent Hoffman was this year before the injury.

[nicksaviking]

Also, this on Thorpe:

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Comment From Ian

Where would Lewis Thorpe (18 year old Australian in MN system) go in this draft?

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Chris Crawford:

Probably not today, but probably not around for very long on Friday.

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Not in the 1st two rounds? I'm suspect of that. I don't think that many GM's would reasonably believe more than a few pitchers in this draft could do what he did in rookie ball last year.

 

Maybe he thought the poster meant Ian Thorpe that Olympic swimmer.

[benji21]

I've stated in different threads that I wouldn't want anything to do with Gordon. His bat scares me bad, like real bad. Getting Florimon with #5 should scare a lot of people. I would love if they pounced on Jackson if he's there. Same with Kolek. Gotta go with monster upside. I hope the braintrust can be trusted to nab someone interesting with their #2 pick. Eades last year sucks, but Berrios rules. Personally, I would just bug the Cardinals war room and take whoever they would take!

[Brock Beauchamp]

And, contrary to myth, velocity does not pick up to pre-injury levels after TJ....it only seems that way because they were injured before we knew it, and had decreasing velocity.

 

Chris Carpenter, Josh Johnson, and Tim Hudson - amongst others - disagree with this statement.