Article: Rotation Reinforcements Waiting in the (Red) Wings

[cmathewson]

I guess I just can't get that excited. Drop off of potential? I don't find it impressive to have a starting rotation of #5 starters and 3 guys in the minors who for some reason haven't beat them out yet.

 

So they have to beat out the starters we have to be worth anything, regardless of where they are in their development. I see.

[Dantes929]

"I was high on Pelfrey to start out the season thinking he's two years removed from TJ, but I'm one or two more train-wreck starts away from hopping off that train." But that's the thing. No one is giving him the one or two more chances and the assumption is that they will be train wrecks. Nolasco was horrible his 1st two starts and Hughes and Correia were not much better and Hughes still isn't. Last year the leash was 10 games. Better guys waiting in the wings but the leash should still be at least 6 games. 4 more times around the rotation and then start talking about who Deduno or Meyer should replace if those two are still throwing well.

[Thrylos]

Deduno isn't a precision pitcher either, but he misses bats better than any other Twins starter, and he manages to work around his walks.

 

That's not true. As a starter last season Deduno's K% was 14.5%

 

Here are career K% averages for Twins' starters (with 2013 K% in parenthesis) :

 

Nolasco: 19.2 % (19.8%)

Hughes: 19.8 % (18.9%)

Pelfrey: 13.2 % (14.9 %)

Correia: 15.0 % (12.8%)

Gibson: SSS 12.2% MLB, 21.1% AAA

 

The fact is that Deduno might miss more bats on the walk way, but is pretty much on the bottom of the list compared to the other Twins' starters as far as strikeouts go as a starter.

 

I just don't get the Deduno love... he is a AAAA pitcher like Diamond.

[Nick Nelson]

It seems to me that Phil Hughes is given way too much slack in this forum and others that I follow, and should be on a shorter leash than Pelfrey and Correia.

Hughes' BABIP right now is .409. Yes, to some extent it is his fault that so much damage is being done when hitters make contact, but no one's going to keep giving up hits on 40+ percent of balls in play.

 

And the big key is that way fewer hitters ARE making contact against Hughes. He's striking out 25 percent of opponents; next highest Twins starter is Correia at 13 percent. Long-term, racking up all those automatic outs is going to help PH fare a lot better than the rest of the rotation, especially if he continues to limit walks (his BB rate is second-lowest among Twins starters).

 

Again, I'm not saying Hughes isn't at fault in any way for his struggles, but he's pitching a lot better than his results suggest. That can't be said about the rest of this team's starters.

 

How fleeting is fame. Has everybody forgotten about Ryan "Elvis" Pressly? Last year they were talking about him like a Trevor May type developmental prospect.

Huh? I don't think anyone who knew what they were talking about was making any such comparisons.

[Nick Nelson]

I just don't get the Deduno love... he is a AAAA pitcher like Diamond.

 

Unlike Diamond, he has basically had nothing but success over the past two years -- minors, majors, WBC, spring, take your pick.

 

Whether or not he racks up tons of strikeouts, Deduno doesn't give up hits. That's been a sustainable skill for him for basically his entire career. He's a unique pitcher and IMO needs to be evaluated differently from most others, much like a knuckleballer.

[AHSaves]

Deduno IS like a knuckleballer except he doesn't even know where the pitch is going to go minimally! I don't get the Deduno love either. The guy is 30 years old and still can't control the cut or run of a fastball. He's a circus out there (definitely entertaining sometimes).

[tobi0040]

Hughes' BABIP right now is .409. Yes, to some extent it is his fault that so much damage is being done when hitters make contact, but no one's going to keep giving up hits on 40+ percent of balls in play.

 

And the big key is that way fewer hitters ARE making contact against Hughes. He's striking out 25 percent of opponents; next highest Twins starter is Correia at 13 percent. Long-term, racking up all those automatic outs is going to help PH fare a lot better than the rest of the rotation, especially if he continues to limit walks (his BB rate is second-lowest among Twins starters).

 

Again, I'm not saying Hughes isn't at fault in any way for his struggles, but he's pitching a lot better than his results suggest. That can't be said about the rest of this team's starters.

 

 

Huh? I don't think anyone who knew what they were talking about was making any such comparisons.

 

Going off memory, I think Hughes has had 12 scoreless innings and 12 ER in the other 3. So on top of an unlucky BABIP, that bad luck has been squeezed into three innings for the most part.

[tobi0040]

Unlike Diamond, he has basically had nothing but success over the past two years -- minors, majors, WBC, spring, take your pick.

 

Whether or not he racks up tons of strikeouts, Deduno doesn't give up hits. That's been a sustainable skill for him for basically his entire career. He's a unique pitcher and IMO needs to be evaluated differently from most others, much like a knuckleballer.

 

Knuckler or a Mariano Rivera type where nobody can square him up. Rivera's HR per 9 was .5, Deduno has a very impressive .8 in MLB.

[jokin]

Going off memory, I think Hughes has had 12 scoreless innings and 12 ER in the other 3. So on top of an unlucky BABIP, that bad luck has been squeezed into three innings for the most part.

 

And additionally confirmed by an anomalously low strand rate (Mauer's gaffe hurt him in this regard on Tuesday) and very respectable FIP, xFIP and SIERA numbers in the 3s. And he didn't get a lot of help from the plate umpire on Tuesday, either:

 

 

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/461833/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=4%2F15%2F2014&to=4%2F16%2F2014

[tobi0040]

And additionally confirmed by an anomalously low strand rate (Mauer's gaffe hurt him in this regard on Tuesday) and very respectable FIP, xFIP and SIERA numbers in the 3s. And he didn't get a lot of help from the plate umpire on Tuesday, either:

 

 

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/461833/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=4%2F15%2F2014&to=4%2F16%2F2014

 

Yeah, quite the gap between ERA (7.20) and FIP (3.72). I count six pitches in the zone called as balls and exactly zero pitches out of the zone called strikes.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Wasn't inconsistency Hughes' bugaboo in NY? I know 3 starts is way too early to conclude anything, but given that, the results so far shouldn't be that surprising or require explanation, right?

 

Here are Hughes' stats by inning last year:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=hugheph01&year=2013&t=p#innng

 

Seems like a fair amount of fluctuation there, which suggests scattered "big innings", as compared to, say, Kevin Correia:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=correke01&year=2013&t=p#innng

 

Glancing at a couple linescores from his 2013 game logs, I see Hughes was chased from his first start during a 4 run inning, had a 7 run disaster inning in May, had a 5 run inning to begin June...

 

(An aside: Correia was a beast last year in the 5th inning! 0.32 ERA! Maybe a new market inefficiency? )

[cmathewson]

Deduno IS like a knuckleballer except he doesn't even know where the pitch is going to go minimally! I don't get the Deduno love either. The guy is 30 years old and still can't control the cut or run of a fastball. He's a circus out there (definitely entertaining sometimes).

 

I think that's what Nick meant by knucklballer. Name one knuckleballer who can control where the pitch is going.

 

I don't get the Deduno hate. Just look at the numbers. As Nick said, he's been successful everywhere he's pitched the last two years. Yeah, he's 30, but he had TJ surgery at 26. Prior to that, we wasn't given much of an opportunity. At 28 and healthy, he started pitching like he's capable of. Why is his age even relevant here? He's not a prospect. He's a successful reclamation project.

[tobi0040]

Wasn't inconsistency Hughes' bugaboo in NY? I know 3 starts is way too early to conclude anything, but given that, the results so far shouldn't be that surprising or require explanation, right?

 

Here are Hughes' stats by inning last year:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=hugheph01&year=2013&t=p#innng

 

Seems like a fair amount of fluctuation there, which suggests scattered "big innings", as compared to, say, Kevin Correia:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=correke01&year=2013&t=p#innng

 

Glancing at a couple linescores from his 2013 game logs, I see Hughes was chased from his first start during a 4 run inning, had a 7 run disaster inning in May, had a 5 run inning to begin June...

 

(An aside: Correia was a beast last year in the 5th inning! 0.32 ERA! Maybe a new market inefficiency? )

 

He has given up 20 hits, 5 BB, and 17 K in 15 IP. If his career BABIP of .265 or so was applied, he would have about 7 fewer hits.

 

15 IP, 13 H, 5 BB, 17 K. That is a WHIP of 1.20 and 10.24 K per 9 innings. You give me that over the next 3 years and these discussions will be very different.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He has given up 20 hits, 5 BB, and 17 K in 15 IP. If his career BABIP of .265 or so was applied, he would have about 7 fewer hits.

 

Fangraphs says his career BABIP is .296, and has never been as low as .265. Career low .273 (2010). That career rate would mean about 5 fewer non-HR hits allowed in his 15 IP so far.

 

Also, it's not really fair to suggest his high 2014 BABIP will revert to career norms, but not apply the same to his high 2014 K rate. We don't expect him to be a 10 K/9 starter, right?

 

Finally, I am definitely not suggesting he will continue to be a 7.20 ERA pitcher... just that these early returns suggest he may be closer to the up-and-down, 4.60 ERA pitcher he was with New York, than the hidden gem many were hoping for.

[Willihammer]

[TABLE]

I

Hughes

PA

OPS

[/TD]

1st PA in G as SP

1207

.722

2nd PA in G as SP

1156

.788

3rd PA in G as SP

786

.849

[/TABLE]

 

For whatever reason, batters only need to see Hughes once before they turn into Andre Ethier. Twice before they turn into David Wright.

 

Maybe he should swap roles with Deduno?

 

[TABLE]

I

Deduno

PA

OPS

1st PA in G as SP

293

.681

2nd PA in G as SP

283

.767

3rd PA in G as SP

218

.731

[/TABLE]

 

Plus, Hughes has been amazing as a reliever.

 

[TABLE]

I

Hughes

PA

BB

SO

OPS

[TD]1st PA in G as RP

214

17

69

.501

[/TABLE]

[tobi0040]

Fangraphs says his career BABIP is .296, and has never been as low as .265. Career low .273 (2010). That career rate would mean about 5 fewer non-HR hits allowed in his 15 IP so far.

 

Also, it's not really fair to suggest his high 2014 BABIP will revert to career norms, but not apply the same to his high 2014 K rate. We don't expect him to be a 10 K/9 starter, right?

 

Finally, I am definitely not suggesting he will continue to be a 7.20 ERA pitcher... just that these early returns suggest he may be closer to the up-and-down, 4.60 ERA pitcher he was with New York, than the hidden gem many were hoping for.

 

I eyballed BABIP earlier in the day and was off. Good point on the K rate. I am optimistic. His BA against is 60 basis points higher than his career rate. Before the year we thought the key for him was keeping the ball in the park. His 1.20 HR/9 is far lower than his 1.48 and 1.65 of the last two years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I eyballed BABIP earlier in the day and was off. Good point on the K rate. I am optimistic. His BA against is 60 basis points higher than his career rate. Before the year we thought the key for him was keeping the ball in the park. His 1.20 HR/9 is far lower than his 1.48 and 1.65 of the last two years.

 

True, and he allowed both of those HR in Chicago, none in Target Field yet.

 

But three consecutive starts of 5 IP, 4 ER, near 100 pitches each, doesn't exactly make me optimistic that he's going to wind up better than the inconsistent, inefficient 4.60 ERA starter he has been with the Yankees the past 4 seasons. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing at his price, certainly an improvement over most of our 2012-2013 starting staff -- but not the kind of piece that leads to great surplus value, or is a key contributor for a surprise contender. (A problem exacerbated by the fact the same description is likely to apply to our other 3 FA SP signings the past two offseasons.)

[tobi0040]

True, and he allowed both of those HR in Chicago, none in Target Field yet.

 

But three consecutive starts of 5 IP, 4 ER, near 100 pitches each, doesn't exactly make me optimistic that he's going to wind up better than the inconsistent, inefficient 4.60 ERA starter he has been with the Yankees the past 4 seasons. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing at his price, certainly an improvement over most of our 2012-2013 starting staff -- but not the kind of piece that leads to great surplus value, or is a key contributor for a surprise contender. (A problem exacerbated by the fact the same description is likely to apply to our other 3 FA SP signings the past two offseasons.)

 

His career ERA outside of the new Yankee stadium is around 4.15. I think that is about where he ends up or maybe a little better with the added confidence. That for 3/24 is a coup in my opinion.

[Otto von Ballpark]

His career ERA outside of the new Yankee stadium is around 4.15. I think that is about where he ends up or maybe a little better with the added confidence. That for 3/24 is a coup in my opinion.

 

Agreed he certainly wasn't helped by the new Yankee Stadium, but that still doesn't really explain him alternating 80 and 100 ERA+ seasons for 4 years now. I'm not real comfortable explaining that away by home/road splits or confidence issues, especially when our other 3 FA starters all have similar up-and-down records. It's just kinda of inherent in that class of pitcher.

 

Still, that means he may hit that 4.15 in his up season(s), which would certainly be helpful.

[Brock Beauchamp]

True, and he allowed both of those HR in Chicago, none in Target Field yet.

 

But three consecutive starts of 5 IP, 4 ER, near 100 pitches each, doesn't exactly make me optimistic that he's going to wind up better than the inconsistent, inefficient 4.60 ERA starter he has been with the Yankees the past 4 seasons.

 

I still think he's better than that. Every start has been plagued by one bad inning mixed into nearly-unhittable baseball.

 

And Tonkin really screwed over his stat line in that last start. Still not good but not as awful as it looked on paper.

[tobi0040]

Agreed he certainly wasn't helped by the new Yankee Stadium, but that still doesn't really explain him alternating 80 and 100 ERA+ seasons for 4 years now. I'm not real comfortable explaining that away by home/road splits or confidence issues, especially when our other 3 FA starters all have similar up-and-down records. It's just kinda of inherent in that class of pitcher.

 

Still, that means he may hit that 4.15 in his up season(s), which would certainly be helpful.

 

Some of the volatility maybe just the nature of him. But Yankee stadium, in my opinion explains 90% of his struggles.

 

He has given up 43 HR outside of the new yankee stadium in 440 IP, a rate of .87 per 9 IP.

 

He has given up 71 HR in 355 IP in yankee stadium, a rate of 1.78

 

He has a career ERA of 4.58 and we could argue one HR per 9 IP could potentially be removed. That is going to have a huge impact on his ERA.

[Lefty]

So they have to beat out the starters we have to be worth anything, regardless of where they are in their development. I see.

 

I'm not saying they're not worth anything at all. Everyone thinks that Meyer/May could be good players down the road. But if you're a Twins fan, the guys down in the minors aren't doing the big club any good at all. It's hard to get excited about our supposed depth when our 'talent' hasn't made it yet.

[jokin]

I still think he's better than that. Every start has been plagued by one bad inning mixed into nearly-unhittable baseball.

 

And Tonkin really screwed over his stat line in that last start. Still not good but not as awful as it looked on paper.

 

And Mauer didn't help, either.