Gyorko Extension and parallels to Dozier

[Spawn of Mientkiewicz]

So MLB Trade Rumors has a breakdown on a contract extension Jedd Gyorko of SD is signing after one full year of service. $2MM in 2015, $4MM in 2016, $6MM in 2017, $9MM in 2018, $13MM in 2019 and a $13MM club option (or $1MM buyout) for the 2020 season.

 

If you look at Gyorko's 2013, it looks very similar to Dozier. Dozier has 1/2 season of extra time from 2012 that Gyorko doesn't have, but otherwise these 2 guys are very similar. Gyorko was .249/.301/.745 last year and Dozier was .244/.312/.726. Gyorko has a bit more power offset by Dozier's stronger OBP. Gyorko is 25 (26 in September), Dozier is 26 (27 next month).

 

I know there was some discussion on extending Dozier before the season, but it seemingly didn't get very far. Understanding the depth we have at 2B in the minors, does anyone think a similar contract to Gyorko's is a) appropriate for Dozier, and would you do it?

[nicksaviking]

Seems a little high considering the Padres only got one free agent year. Gyrko has some promise, but I'm not sure he would have gotten much more in arbitration if he was an average 2B.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Brian Dozier may have a luscious mane but he doesn't have a great baseball name like Jedd Gyorko.

 

That has to be worth at least $5m.

[Otto von Ballpark]

One thing to keep in mind: Gyorko put up that comparable OPS in pitcher-friendly San Diego. His OPS+ was better than Dozier's (113 vs 100 last year).

 

And even in that pitcher-friendly park, Gyorko's raw ISO was higher than Dozier's last year, and he was actually a solid power hitter in the minors too, which doesn't mean a whole ton anymore but it does suggest his power might be a little safer to project at this point than Dozier's. Dozier basically never hit for power until June 2013.

[Winston Smith]

I don't understand the need unless he is a Trout like player. So many things can go wrong with a young player. Wait a couple years and then look at it.

[drock2190]

Not a fan. He really hasnt taken the next step in the majors to be a good player imo.

[LaBombo]

Seems a little high considering the Padres only got one free agent year. Gyrko has some promise, but I'm not sure he would have gotten much more in arbitration if he was an average 2B.

Although I haven't seen much of the Gyrocopter, that sounds about right to me.

 

It's an interesting comparison, but ultimately the Gyorko signing seems to say more about the value of managing service time carefully than it does about Dozier's value. Since the 2012 offseason, when nearly half the 20 or so extensions didn't increase the number of team control years, there have been quite a few like Gyorko's that extend team only a year or two, if at all. At least a few agents will not allow clients to sign extensions and gamble on arbitration until free agency.

 

Still, like OP points out, there are enough similarities to make Gyoko's deal an interesting comp for what a Dozier deal might look like. An OPS of around .800 seems possible, and would make Brian a very (and deservedly) wealthy man.

[Thrylos]

They are not even close. Other maybe than their SSS MLB numbers last season. Before last season Gyoko was MLB.com's 50th best prospect in baseball and his career MiLB line is .321/.386/.530. Chase Utley has been mentioned in Gyoko comparisons, not much in Dozier's.

 

Too early to even think whether Dozier will be part of the future or would be a good trade bait, much more than extending him.