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Who Says No? Twins Edition


Twins Video

Who says no to some of the following trade options?

#1  Pablo Lopez and Christian vazquez to Red Sox for Tristan Casas and Miguel Blies:

Why it works for Twins:

They are able ot clear $32M from the books while at the same time solving their 1B issue.  they get a prospect with MASSIVE upside who was showing big potential before injuries in 2024. This also allows for further moves with our infield depth.  BU ta clear 1B upgrade and clearing $32M is that too much to pass up?

Why it works for Red Sox:

Red Sox are having internal discussion of moving Rafael Devers to 1B, and Casas is definitely expendable in that case. Red Sox need another starter and can easily take on teh $10 owed Vazquez.

 

#2  Renew trade acquaintences with Miami:  and Brooks Lee, Eduard Julien, Gabriel Gonzalez to Miami in exchange for Sandy Alcantara

Why it works for Twins:

Th eTwins once again dip into IF depth to acquire a starter from Miami.Twins still have Lewis, Correa,  Miranda (Casas if make that deal), the supposed near MLB ready 5 tool prospect in Keaschall, plus utility guys in Martin and Castro. Maybe the Twins can do with with keeping one of teh three and/or swapping out with another top 25 Twins prospect.  Alcantara is coming off TJ, but he is nearly 2 years removed and all accounts are he is back to his previous injury self. Twins still get 3 years of control 

Why it Works for Miami:

If Miami is in yet another "redo" mode, do they want to keep an "older player" at his price? They have already moved Luzardo for 2 prospects. Would they move a more expensive starter for THREE quality prospects/young players?? They coudl get 3 young MLB ready (or near) positional starters.

 

#3 is a FA edition of "who says no"?  instead of a team, it is Twins or the FA

Twins sign BOTH Justin Verlander & Max Scherzer to matching 3 year deals averagign about $15M per with some built in protections for both.

Something liek $12M for year 1. Year 2 is $15M with mutual options. Player opt out options, or Twins can buyout at $3M (this basically means it is a $15 year year 1 deal). Year 3 at $18M but contains vesting options based on innings or performance in year 2. 

 

Why this works for teh Twins:

These are low risk moves. there is built in protections with the mutual option and the vesting option for years 2 and 3. While neither can legitimately be counted on for 30+ starts, they would both be great mentors for Ryan, Ober, and the rest of our young pitchers. This gives us 6 deep with Ryan, Ober, (Lopez, or Alcantara if we do/dont do any of those other moves) Verlander, Scherzer, SWR. plus our ready/near ready young guys means we would have the depth to ease them along or deal with injuries.  From a financial perspective they will sell tickets. and if Verlander performs and we can retain him we have the chance at the run for 300.

 

Why this works for JV/Max:

Neither pitcher is set to get any offer above say $12M on even a 1 year deal due to age and recent injury. This give them the opportunity to maximize their value and provide flexibility on their end.

 

 

17 Comments


Recommended Comments

tony&rodney

Posted

Love that you are proposing ideas to improve the Twins roster. My opinions below are just that, mine. They are not criticisms. You asked and I'm answering. 

#1 The Twins say no. Casas is a DH who cannot run, field, or throw. That makes him about as valuable as Jose Miranda, who is already on the team. If the Red Sox sign Bregman, I think the Twins could acquire Casas for Miranda and Matthews. I'm high on Matthews and would not trade him.

#2 The Marlins say no. Sandy Alcantara would command either a better player than Brooks Lee or a set of a couple of Julien(Miranda and Paddack) plus 3-4 prospects along the lines (or better) than Gonzalez.

#3 Both Scherzer and Verlander say no. These guys have made a boatload of money playing baseball and will be very select about where they go. Unfortunately, this excludes the Twins. I wish Verlander could make a miraculous return as a Twins but no way it happens.

Doctor Gast

Posted

18 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Love that you are proposing ideas to improve the Twins roster. My opinions below are just that, mine. They are not criticisms. You asked and I'm answering. 

#1 The Twins say no. Casas is a DH who cannot run, field, or throw. That makes him about as valuable as Jose Miranda, who is already on the team. If the Red Sox sign Bregman, I think the Twins could acquire Casas for Miranda and Matthews. I'm high on Matthews and would not trade him.

#2 The Marlins say no. Sandy Alcantara would command either a better player than Brooks Lee or a set of a couple of Julien(Miranda and Paddack) plus 3-4 prospects along the lines (or better) than Gonzalez.

#3 Both Scherzer and Verlander say no. These guys have made a boatload of money playing baseball and will be very select about where they go. Unfortunately, this excludes the Twins. I wish Verlander could make a miraculous return as a Twins but no way it happens.

Boston has to get someone at 3B to move Devers off there. BOS is very high on Casas so they are more apt to move their DH instead but they do need a lot of help at SP & catching (Lopez & Vazquez could really impact them) so they could do it. After BOS moved Teel there's no one big on the BOS team I'd really want. Just like Lopez & Vazquez positively impacting BOS, the loss of them for the Twins will have a greater negative impact that can't be replaced.

I really like your idea about using a larger positive surplus value to offset negative surplus value. Twins who are very deep in pitching still find value in Dobnak, then the Rox who had been at the bottom of pitching depth can find more value in Dobnak. ROX still thinks they are a competing team & they have a ton of holes. Their biggest hole is catching if we trade Jeffers with other players that help fill some of their holes plus basically throwing in Dobnak for free using trading surplus capital for MLB-ready Drew Romo & soon-to-be to be elite catcher Cole Carrigg. Savings of $7.7M. Then we can trade Paddack to BOS for Romy Gonzalez (1B/utility) + $2M that's $9.5M savings. OK BOS wouldn't want to pay the $2M & rather use a low prospect instead but that's still $7.5M savings. 7.7 + 7.5 = $15.2M using only non-core replaceable players. That more than balances the budget plus takes care of a couple of needs. All we need to do is trade for high-leverage LHRP Nardi & then we are set to compete for the Central. Which I never felt that we could last season.

LambchoP

Posted

Getting Verlander or Max for one year would be really fun and would sell some tickets early season until they got injured around the halfway point. Neither would ever come to MN unfortunately.

T.O.

Posted

Vasquez should be traded away for anything they can get or given away to reduce salary. There has to be some team that wants an experienced catcher that doesn't hit much.


I am against getting rid of Lopez. The Twins need an experienced veteran pitcher to solidify the starting rotation. He didn't have a great 24 but even as he continually got himself in jams he then got himself out and continued farther into his games. Many pitchers start having trouble and then fall apart. The Twins need someone like Lopez. I can see his leadership being an assert.

Many members here apply the same leadership qualities to Carlos Correa. I'm not quite seeing that. The trade or keep Carlos is perhaps the most divisive topic around here. A lot of passionate disagreement with letting him go. But if salary reduction is a must I'd rather have him go and than Lopez.

 

Mahoning

Posted

The problem with trading Vazquez is that they have NO catchers to replace him, and Jeffers has not shown that he can play every day -- certainly not play ever day and hit at all. the problem with Miranda at first base is that he, too, has never shown that he can hit all year long, and you need offense from that position. Casas has a short history, but where there is of it awfully good. The problem with trading Lee is that he is apparently the Twins hope for third base, now that they have decided that Royce Lewis can't play shortstop or third either (what happened?) And the problem with trading Correa is that they have no one to replace him at shortstop, where he is magnificent. 

Otaknam

Posted

I’m not a fan of trading Lopez, weakening the starting pitching. And we all know success starts with pitching. The potential cost to sign both Verlander and Scherzer would mean either Correa or Lopez would have to be traded. Trading them for guys around 40 makes no sense. I do like reading the trade speculation, however. 

Morland

Posted

No to trading Lopez. The return isn't high to get rid of a hard to find ace pitcher. There's other ways to get rid of Vazquez.

Yes to trading for Alcantara if the Marlins are stupid enough to trade him. The price in prospects (which is still what Lee is), is worth it.

Would love to have Verlander/Scherzer here but why would they come here? They don't need money, they want rings. The twins aren't nearly as close to rings as other teams that need pitching.

Finlander

Posted

I don't think Casas is necessarily an upgrade at 1b. I certainly wouldn't give up Lopez in a deal. Boston has just signed Walker Buehler, so they may be set for starting pitching anyway. I'd target Marcelo Mayer instead to cover Correa's eventual move to 3b. But he'd cost quite a bit. Wonder what they'd say to a Duran + Vasquez offer.

Alcantara - yes. That's a nice target. Three years of control is rare for a talent like that and probably spendy in prospect capital, even coming off TJS. I don't think Miami would accept a  prospect package unless it included at least one quality young pitcher coming back along with 2-3 hitters, But I'd be all for that. Maybe they'd have a good catcher in the low minors to throw in.

And yes, unfortunately Verlander and Schertzer would have no interest in coming here.

My wild take: I'd keep Paddack and use him, at least until around the summer trade deadline. I see nothing written advocating that, and I wonder why. Everyone wants to dump his salary. But guess what - if he's effective, it's not a bad deal, and he could fetch a bit in a mid-season trade.

Finlander

Posted

Sorry, I meant Duran + Vasquez with an prospect or two for the Boston deal.

There have been catchers signed recently - they're out there. I just saw Sam Huff let go by Texas as an example. I think he's a bat first guy, and I'm not sure of his health. But I know he's young with some power.

tony&rodney

Posted

On 12/24/2024 at 5:06 PM, dxpavelka said:

Trading your number 1 starter to get a 1B gets you fired.

 

Do you believe Falvey will make any type of significant trade?

dxpavelka

Posted

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Do you believe Falvey will make any type of significant trade?

If it involves trading a # 1 starter for a 1B I hope the hell not.

JD-TWINS

Posted

Signing guys in their 40’s with continual injury issues doesn’t seem like a good move. They were 7-10 between them last year with about a 4.70 ERA combined…… and they combined to throw 130 total innings……pretty sad for $30M potential cost and 2 roster spots! The $15M/yr seems to make even less sense than the health issues.  Maybe one or two of them decide to sign with Detroit out if sentimentality.

I like Casas…….he cannot be worse prospect at 1B defensively than Julien…..Miranda can’t be a bunch better defensively.

Vazquez - Paddack - Duran - Miranda for Casas & youth Catcher. Can’t afford to trade Lopez for anything but an impact offensive player - he stays on the roster…….does save $22M.

Gotta be a better target than Alcantara……Tommy John is nothing to be assumed to be like a minor cold or something automatically recovered from, easily.

Keaschall & Castro for depth……Lee-CC-Lewis-Casas for the IF. Sign Cassalli as a 2nd Cather option with Jeffers. There’s $20M saved from the Boston trade and Lopez is still on staff. Take some spare $$ and figure out how much to spend on a quality lefty, either as a FA or pay him after acquiring through trade.

MGX

Posted

1. Both teams say No - Boston inquired about Luis Castillo & when the M's asked for Casas in return they backed off. I like Casas a lot & he'd be a big upgrade at 1B, but IMO the Twins can't trade Lopez to make that upgrade happen. 

2. The Marlins say no - if they were going to trade Alcantara for prospects they could have already done it while he was rehabbing. He should be ready in the Spring why trade him now unless it's an offer they can't refuse. The offer above isn't that.

3. Both say no - Verlander & Scherzer aren't likely to go to a team that finished 4th in their division & have owners that are unwilling to invest in the team. The Twins won't spend on FA starters, not that they should in this case. 

dxpavelka

Posted

On 12/26/2024 at 4:30 PM, tony&rodney said:

Do you believe Falvey will make any type of significant trade?

Don't know.  But I DO believe there will be one move that will shock Twins fans.

tony&rodney

Posted

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Don't know.  But I DO believe there will be one move that will shock Twins fans.

So that could be a trade or he could decide to resign for a corporate job in Connecticut.

dxpavelka

Posted

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

So that could be a trade or he could decide to resign for a corporate job in Connecticut.

I think there is a one year Correa type deal to be made with a Boras client.  Budget be damned.

 

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