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Maybe, Spend Now?


rico7961

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I know with the TV issue and the revenue stream from it, up in the air. The Twins will probably want to lower the payroll But, with Pablo Lopez going from 8.25M in 2024 to 21.75M in 2025. And, with Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, Bailey Ober, Griffin Jax, Trevor Larnach, and more ALL becoming Arbitration eligible in 2025. It maybe makes more sense to spend a little more on payroll in 2024. We have a defending Division champion, and the other teams in our division are NOT that strong. So why not try to build a team that can compete for a WS, when we STILL have some cost controllable players. By letting 2024 go, by lowering payroll and not adding to a fairly good team, we lose a great opportunity to build our team to COMPETE for a WS. Plus, the young players on our roster, if they keep succeeding, is going to run that payroll up fast in the coming years. So lets go for it this year, by adding some quality to our roster. Which means we probably have to stay at last years payroll level or even add a little to it.

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This isn't the US government, it's a privately owned business that can't just go out and print more money. As any business, they will have to "live within their means". That doesn't mean they won't still be a good team. The division is weak, and barring someone going crazy in the FA period, they should be primed for another playoff appearance. Once there, anything can happen. Also, they seem to have some pretty good players in the minors that will need a roster spot soon so signing a long term contract doesn't seem like a good idea to me.

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2 hours ago, Karbo said:

This isn't the US government, it's a privately owned business that can't just go out and print more money. As any business, they will have to "live within their means". That doesn't mean they won't still be a good team. The division is weak, and barring someone going crazy in the FA period, they should be primed for another playoff appearance. Once there, anything can happen. Also, they seem to have some pretty good players in the minors that will need a roster spot soon so signing a long term contract doesn't seem like a good idea to me.

This is also not a typical business.  It is professional sports where teams are owned by billionaires (except the Packers), the land of monopoly money, and the driving forces are greedy and ego.  The Twins' payroll should be driven by what it takes to win the World Series.  There will be a TV contract before the season starts (or shortly thereafter) and using TV as an excuse to not improve the team is disingenuous.

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IMO calling up a few players like Martin will improve the team for a lot less money. I agree it's not a typical business, but they still have to make money as any other business does. My guess is that they will shoot for somewhere in the 140 mil range for payroll, which should be enough to keep this a good to very good team.

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Eventually, the Twins WILL have some sort of TV deal.  But I also would like to see them reconsider the payroll cut for 2024.  Each season brings new challenges and opportunities.  The Twins should not be arbitrarily "disarming" for 2024.  The division is indeed eminently "winnable" in 2024.  That shouldn't be the shortsighted goal. The goal should be a plan that makes them formidable World Series contenders for the next 5 seasons.

This is like what I mentioned in another post in the conversation I recently had with a Brewers fan.  The year was 2018 and the Brewers had just stunned the loaded Dodgers in the playoffs.  Yelich had just completed his first awesome year in Milwaukee.  The young pitching pipeline was arriving.  The Brewers, with a manager like Craig Counsell were in a true window of opportunity.  Fast forward 5 years, their ownership and front office tried to get by on the cheap, making fringy moves here and there but always with an eye on COST and not what would get them over the hurdles needed to take that next big step.

Now look where the Brewers are.  Their window has slammed shut.  Counsell has left to take a big payday with the hated divisional rival Cubs.  The Brewers are contemplating blowing it all up to embark on a major rebuild.  They've got several very promising OF prospects and a SP (Peralta) signed to an incredibly team friendly contract for the next 3 years and a solid catcher/hitter in William Contreras.  But mainstays in their rotation like Burnes and Woodruff are probably history.

This is somewhat similar to the Twins in the mid 2000's with Santana, Mauer, Morneau and Nathan.  The talent was there to win a World Series but the Twins focused on COST and not what it would take to add one more stud SP to pair with Santana or a RH hitter to sandwich between Mauer and Morneau.  

How often do these windows open up for a team in a market the size of the Twin Cities or Milwaukee??  

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Often in the TD submissions I see naysayers sighting that we play in a weak Division and that we made the playoffs in ‘23 with a weak line-up and we were “lucky” to get in with 87 wins.

Now that we have beaten the Blue Jays & were competitive in playing the Astros in October it seems there would be many more believers. I still see comments stating that if we don’t sign a Power hitting 1B or a FA Centerfielder or if we don’t trade for a #1-#2 starter to replace Gray we’ll be sunk.

Other observations…….we were 14-5 during the regular season v. the last 4 teams standing in the NLCS & ALCS. We didn’t get all of our wins against the Central Division.

In ‘23 we were 15-19 in games that were started by Sonny Gray. I’m not saying he wasn’t a very solid piece to have, but his presence obviously wasn’t the key to our finishing 87-75! …….Can Louie Varland be part of 15 wins in 34 games started? Seems plausible to me. Would I like a more proven starter - absolutely.

The TD Forum had an author either today or yesterday that had the ratings of each team’s roster as presently constituted, with FA’s blowing in the wind at this point. The TWINS were ranked as the 6th Best Roster in the game at this point.

If Kirilloff is healthy & we can make a deal for a pitcher via FA ($$ available once we trade Polanco) or some extravagant trade move (5 guys for Corbin Burnes) we have an excellent chance of winning the Division.

PLAYOFF ROSTER has Varland back in the Pen with Stewart - Jax - Funderburk - Thielbar - Duran……..,Rotation may have a new guy or we go with the Core Four we presently have.

Line-up has healthy Kirilloff playing 1B hitting .275 with Julien/Farmer platoon at 2B  & CC and Lewis on the left side. Wallner - Castro/Martin - Kepler and Lee & Buxton available to DH with the 2 catchers. That’s a solid club without us turning the present roster upside down!

I don’t think we’re very far away with the guys we have as of 11/14/23.

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