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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    Might be some disconnect, but I never use WAR to advocate for a player, I purposefully stick to offensive stats and let people's defensive opinions lay as they will. And I have no inclination to hand Max Kepler a job as his bat has fallen off of a cliff.
  2. nicksaviking
    I kind of agree that it is. oWAR seems more reliable to me. Defensive stats need to get their act together. Torii Hunter went from being the worst RF in the league in Detroit to putting up a 3.5 UZR as a 39-year-old at Target Field, meanwhile, Max Kepler's playing the exact same position in the same ballpark and had a -1.1 UZR last year. Does not compute. Then if you look at DRS, it has them the complete opposite. DRS says Jose Miranda is a poor First baseman and a league average Third baseman, while UZR says he's a good First baseman and a terrible Third baseman. And both URZ and DRS vary way more than they should year-to-year. At this point, I don't think we're anywhere near to being close to accurately labeling defense with numerical values.
  3. nicksaviking
    Well if he's actually there, then I have to think there's a decent chance he wants to get this over with sooner rather than later.
  4. nicksaviking
    Even if his numbers catch up to his batted ball data, it's not going to help him put the ball over the fence more. The guy's lost almost all of his power since 2019. His slugging percentage is so poor recently, that the removal of the shift and any other changes that may benefit him are going to need to somehow push is on base percentage well above .400 just to achieve and OPS of .800, which really should be what you're looking for in a corner outfielder. He's a slap hitter, who barely hits. The only regular player who had fewer XBH than Kepler last year, was Gilberto Celestino.
  5. nicksaviking
    I doubt Correa is there. But I'll bet Boras would pick up the tab for an extra opt-out and bill Correa for it later.
  6. nicksaviking
    I’d guess as usual, at minimum 10 teams won’t spend 20M in new money free agency for their 2023 payroll. Which frankly is disgusting. The extra money won’t impact the payrolls of top ten or so teams one bit. It likely won’t impact the miserly bottom ten or so teams either. The middle spending teams, like the Twins, should be able to take advantage of this.
  7. nicksaviking
    They've lost even more games because of amateurish pitching and hitting. Like, way, way, way, way more games.
  8. nicksaviking
    Even in their primes, they'd never make enough meaningful contact against the movement and velocity they'd see in today's pitches to win playing station to station baseball.
  9. nicksaviking
    Ha, well maybe a front office won't care about it because they know if they mess it up, they won't be there for the length of the contract anyway. In any case, I don't like that deal. As good as Turner is, speed is a bigger part of his game than the other shortstops. I think he's going to fade long before Correa and Bogaerts.
  10. nicksaviking
    11 years might complicate things. Does someone have to go 12 for Correa? Or does 301M for 10 years get it done?
  11. nicksaviking
    Yeah, Boras has a good situation going, but he wouldn't be acting as a good steward of both of his clients futures if he gambles with Bogaerts interests to leverage a better deal for Correa. And Bogaerts was his client long before Correa. If a team was willing to make Bogaerts a deal he wants, no way Boras is telling Bogaerts, "Please hold, I'll get to you after I satisfy my most important client". I know it's atypical, but think Correa gets done first.
  12. nicksaviking
    I think that's what everybody is saying. It's what I've been saying anyway.
  13. nicksaviking
    I'll bet the Pirates find a way not to spend their windfall. Just a hunch.
  14. nicksaviking
    This was with the presumption that Correa would sign last, leaving the Twins no fallback options on the free agent market.
  15. nicksaviking
    Sign me up. With no power and no glove, his value can rise and fall in the blink of an eye. I know the draw is that he's a throw back to a time when some of us got more enjoyment out of the game, but the 1982 Cardinals probably lose 100 games if they got transported to 2023.
  16. nicksaviking
    For sure. I personally think 6 years is a boneheaded deal for a guy who's struggled to stay healthy, so in my mind, I'm pairing him up with teams that tend to make boneheaded deals. Others are more than free to feel more bullish on Rodon's future of course.
  17. nicksaviking
    They can obviously handle it better than other teams, but the Dodgers haven't been doing long term deals for starting pitchers since Friedman has been there; they tend to get their ace pitchers via the farm or on expiring contracts they trade for. The Yankees are more desperate and do seem to be the more likely team to make this deal, but they still seem to have been making a concerted effort the last couple of years to stay away from the longer term contract bidding wars. If they want to keep Judge, they'll have to bend to his wishes, will they do it for a second player? One that is a pitcher with a sketchy health history? My bet is the Yankees will offer no more than four years. But that's based on nothing but my gut.
  18. nicksaviking
    Boras has maybe the three biggest free agents left in Correa, Bogaerts and Rodon. My guess is that nothing will come together during the Winter Meetings, but with how the big time pitchers are flying off the board now, I doubt Boras would waste his time and dally around with a façade of a meeting. It's most likely all legit.
  19. nicksaviking
    The Yankees have been linked to him, but I just don't see them doing 6 years. That sounds more like something the Angels would do. And then soon regret it.
  20. nicksaviking
    I suppose it is semantics. My deadline would be, "whenever there are only two of the four free agent shortstops left". If not earlier. Personally, if you could get Bogaerts for closer to the Story/Semian contracts, I'd be more than happy to make that deal instead. He has the best K and BB numbers of the four, which I think are traits most likely to age best.
  21. nicksaviking
    Nope, it was not stated. I did miss the 'if' and the post has been edited accordingly. Some have thought he would be the last to sign, La Velle being one of them, but I think it was all just presumption because Boras clients often (but not always) do this. After last year's disappointing off season for Correa, I'm of the mind that he might not want to drag it out again.
  22. nicksaviking
    Do we know which local reporters are going to be there this week?
  23. nicksaviking
    It's not about making threats they can't back up, if they want one of the shortstops, but if Correa plans on being the last of them to sign, the Twins 100% have to tell Correa and Boras that it's just not going to work out. They can't let all the other shortstops pass them by, crossing their fingers that Correa will choose them only to be left empty handed. If they can get Bogaerts here for closer to the Story/Semien money, do it and be happy with the signing.
  24. nicksaviking
    Then I wouldn't sweat it, because guys like Clevenger do nothing except give us reason to complain about how they need to cut him before the calendar turns to June.
  25. nicksaviking
    Yeah, a deadline is needed so the Twins don't come away empty handed in the shortstop sweepstakes. It could work out for the Twins though, because they are Correa's and Boras' best leverage. They're not going to want Minnesota out of the bidding, so it might be most beneficial to get a deal done sooner rather than later.
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