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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    I've wondered this as well. Even if Polanco is a marginally better SS than Gordon, I'd rather have Gordon play SS for the rest of the season and keep Polanco as the primary 2B. Polanco has been the 2nd worst regular SS on defense in MLB from 2018 to 2020, besting only Gleyber Torres. There is no reason to move him back. We know what he is and it's ugly. Gordon might even be worse, but we really don't know. I'd sure like to find out rather than put Polanco back there.
  2. Minny505
    Pineda may take his place for his Sunday start. Maybe. Though that really only pushes his start back to the next game and Ober goes back to AAA. Because, as fantastic as Ober has been, Happ needs opportunities to salvage trade value thru the deadline. The squad can DFA him come August if they want, but they need to keep running him out there until then.
  3. Minny505
    And with good reason. Even put into context, the DFA of David Ortiz is often regarded as the single worst player personnel decision in the history of MLB. The only move that is even comparable is Babe Ruth being traded by the Red Sox to the Yankees, but as is often pointed out, the Red Sox ownership was at least handsomely compensated for giving up on that player. The Twins literally get nothing but historical notoriety for being horrible at player evaluation. It doesn't just get brought up by the Twins fanbase, but is the gold standard brought up by talking heads and analysts anytime a team gives up on a player that goes on to have success elsewhere. It's hard for that wound to heal when it is constantly picked at by both ourselves and others.
  4. Minny505
    This is it. This is the biggest issue right here with pace of play. When I watch a game the next day on MLB.tv, I fast forward 20 seconds between every pitch. I find I'm starting to do 25 seconds as the pitches seem to be coming even slower this season.
  5. Minny505
    Obviously I am in complete agreement Ted. From looking over about 50 hitters on Statcast (because of a large prize fairy tale league) Donaldson had far and away the largest discrepancy in woba and xwoba. His hits will start landing. Very few guys in MLB are peppering the baseball right at fielders with the regularity Donaldson is.
  6. Minny505
    According to statcast, he is sporting the highest xwoba of his statcast era life. He has a crazy low babip compared to his xbabip. He just needs to stay in the lineup and keep doing what he is doing. Nothing to change here. Those batted balls will starts to find grass.
  7. Minny505
    According to pretty much all metrics, the main problem has been pitching. The squad has a Top 5 MLB ranking in both offense and defense via Statcast/Baseball Savant. X Bat loves this team. The pitching has been dead last though and getting to even 29th by the end of the season will be a tall order they are so far back from the pack. It's the same old problem this team had during it's terrible years over the last decade. New management and coaches, same result. Talk about PTSD, with an emphasis on the Disorder. If any coach is going to get axed, it needs to be Wes Johnson. The slide for every pitcher on this team, minus Taylor, Pineda, and Berrios, is alarming. Really though, the FO is to blame here. They scraped the bottom of the barrel when it came to shopping for pitching in the offseason, with Happ, Shoemaker, Robles, Colome, Law, Anderson, Albers, Hamilton, Leyer, Farrel, etc. I understand paying for pitching brings more inherent risk than paying for hitting/defense, but that's all this team really needs. Even going from the worst pitching in MLB to 20th would likely have this team in the middle of contention. DJ, play that one again!!?
  8. Minny505
    Statcast has the Twins as tied for the #3 defense in MLB. It also shows the Twins as the #2 offense in MLB. The downfall, which will surprise no one here, is the pitching. Our favorite squad has the worst pitching in MLB and it is by a WIDE margin.
  9. Minny505
    Huh? People are hating on Astudillo? I hear/read nothing but praise of the player, minus one podcast host (of the 20 MLB/Twins podcasts I listen to). Twins Daily loves him. Twitter loves him. Fangraphs loves him. The Ringer. Twinkie Town. The Athletic. Etc. This seems like a defense looking for an accusation. You could have just written an article praising Astudillo for being a solid 26th man instead of making up a non-existent narrative. (sorry for the harsh criticism, but I detest blogging and journalism that is trying to stir up controversy)
  10. Minny505
    This is a fantastic point that should be applied to almost any statistical breakdown, whether sports, the economy, healthcare outcomes, customer value, etc. The median is almost always a closer indicator of the most meaningful findings than the mean is.
  11. Minny505
    I was going to comment that the Twins probably send down Dobnak to get a start or two before having him replace Shoemaker. Good to hear the Twins are already on this. It seems like I am in the minority here, but I would much rather hand the keys to Dobnak vs Thorpe as a permanent replacement. Track record means a lot more to a team like the Twins. I will not argue upside being in Dobnak's favor, but the data suggests the floor for Dobnak is MUCH higher at this stage.
  12. Minny505
    Smashing the like button on this one. It seemed a poor decision out of ST and the results haven't made the decision look any better. Not many decisions by this team over the last few years surprise me, but keeping Dobnak on the roster to pitch out of the pen legitimately surprised me. Count me as one of the many who thinks he should be sent to St Paul to continue pitching 5-6 innings every fifth day.
  13. Minny505
    The author laid it out perfectly. This, along with Colome, seem like the biggest talking point in the early season. Polanco has hit like a bottom third of the order bat for nearly two years. More than anything I hope Polanco turns it around. Until then, he needs to be dropped to the 9 spot and given more days off. And that turnaround may not happen this season as his LHB swing looks like it needs to be completely rebuilt. He just looks terrible right now, regardless of the results.
  14. Minny505
    I'd still be surprised to see Dobnak in the bullpen as I would think the Twins prefer to keep him stretched out as a starter at the alt site, but most here seem to think differently. He'll likely be one of the five most valuable SP by the season's end. It would be a shame to waste that in the bullpen.
  15. Minny505
    As strange as this competition sounds, the 26th man probably comes down to Astudillo vs Smeltzer.
  16. Minny505
    I would be rather shocked if Dobnak is not in St a Saints uni to start the season, unless there is an injury to one of the projected starting five. I think the odds of the Twins going to a 6-man rotation to keep Dobnak on the MLB roster is higher than Dobnak making the roster as a reliever.
  17. Minny505
    This is so rad Jamie!!! Thank you. Does Baseball Savant weight the new Game Score vs the league average? I feel without context of the rest of the league's average score, this is not as helpful as it could be.
  18. Minny505
    No thank you on Marwin. If we are looking to bring someone in from outside the org to fill the 5th IF role, I'd rather they have some offensive upside. Someone like Brad Miller or Maikel Franco would be where I would prefer to go. I'd rather that money go to pitching though. Gordon, Blankenhorn, and two-time MVP runner up Willians Astudillo can handle a 5th IF role, if it's needed at all.
  19. Minny505
    Huh? I really haven't heard much pessimism in Twins Territory (minus Mr Trueblood) regarding Luis Arraez. If anything, it's positivity as he is going to make one of the finest leadoff hitters in MLB. That's the buzz I hear. Fantasy baseball experts are putting him near the top of 2B draft boards because of his BA and the expectation that he'll be leading off and scoring buckets of runs. Most projection systems have him prorated to 150 games/600 ABs as one of the top 3 position players on the Twins by WAR Which is where the rub lies. He may be injury prone. I want to give him another season before I hit him with that label. But even playing injured, he's still been amazing in his very young career. Just think of the upside when we get to see him healthy over a full season!!!
  20. Minny505
    Wrong may be a better defensive SS than Gregorius or Polanco right now. If the FO believes he can handle SS, he could make a good Util Man. Otherwise, pass. The priority needs to be someone who can handle SS better than Polanco as a starter (Semien, Simmons, Galvis, Baez) or someone who can handle it as well or better than Polanco with a passable or better hit tool to be a true 10th Man (Gregorius, Wong?, Goodrum).
  21. Minny505
    My heart wants Simmons because he is the most fun player in MLB to watch in the field. He is not as flashy as Baez, but he seems to be a quantum speed thinker who is always aware of the game situation, the spin of a struck ball, etc. His snap decision making is just ridiculous to watch. That said, my brain says Semien, because while is not nearly as good or as fun to watch on defense, he is still a solid average to above-average defender, with a hit tool that could play in the middle of the Twins lineup. Which do you prefer? (And don't say Gregorius, because that would be a downgrade from Polanco on defense)
  22. Minny505
    If you take a few minutes to dig into Semien's Statcast defensive stats*, you will see that the only weakness he has is going "to his right". He is solidly above average in every other direction. His "to his right" is not only bad, it stands out with many outs worse than the 2nd worst. Now, flip over to the 3B leaderboard and notice the #2 defender there. It would make sense that a lot of the outs that Semien is not converting "to his right" are because Chapman is cutting those balls off before Semien has a chance to make the play. I am not sure if that is how Statcast is allocating OOA (maybe someone can tweet Mike Petriello?), but if you look at Trevor Story's numbers, you see a similar pattern as Semien. If that is the case, then Semien would be a solid average to above-average defensive SS, which is far better than the two worst fielding starting SS in MLB, which are Polanco and Gregorius. *https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&year=all&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=6&roles=&viz=show
  23. Minny505
    I suspect Paxton wants a 1 year deal to show he can make it thru a season. The number of big paydays over the years for "injury prone but excellent when healthy" pitchers, that make it thru just one year healthy, is substantial. If I were Paxton, I'd want 1 year, or 3+. 2 years just doesn't make sense. He is the kind of pitcher who will want to cash in on a healthy season when he finally has it. Regardless, I think I'd prefer Odo. What about Tanaka? Can we do him vs Odo instead? It seems like a better comp. Paxton would match up better with someone like Garrett Richards, another pitcher with a history of injuries and impressive performance when healthy. I really love this series Matthew. Maybe we could do some sort of bracket style at each position of need and crown a winner after a few rounds for each. Then we can send our list to Falvey so he and the crew can make it happen. Just throwin it out there.
  24. Minny505
    I don't even think I would sign Gregorius as the starting SS. The blended data from various metric sites would put Gregorius as an even, at best, defender to Polanco. I would actually prefer Polanco at SS to Gregorius, though the move is lateral. The offensive track record and projection is shockingly similar to Polanco as well. There may not be two more similar players in all of MLB when taken as a full package. It's remarkable how similar they are. I'd sign Gregorius as a Utility man, but I suspect he wants a starting gig. I can say this with conviction though: Gregorius is one of few starting caliber SS in MLB that would not be a defensive upgrade over Polanco. That is not what this team needs. If we are going to spend money on a SS, they need to be a defensive improvement. This is the opposite. This is getting worse.
  25. Minny505
    I'd be down for Taillon. He is a good pitcher that would improve the Twins rotation. Unless the brass sees something they can fix in Kuhl, I'd pass. I mean, he's depth, but the salary space isn't likely worth it. He's already 28. Maybe a bullpen option?
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