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ToddlerHarmon

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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. ToddlerHarmon
    I'm guessing that Romero's and Gibson's appearances were because we don't get any more chances to evaluate them against good lineups fighting for their lives. So this may have been to see if Romero can be considered for the playoff roster, and if Gibson could be a bullpen option.
  2. ToddlerHarmon
    I don't know, but it is gratifying that the top two WAR performers were both signed to cheap, long-term contracts this winter right before breaking into all-star production levels. Gratifying for future competitiveness by itself, but also gratifying as evidence of the front office's skills in identifying talent.
  3. ToddlerHarmon
    Liked for proper use of "penultimate"
  4. ToddlerHarmon
    My difference from the OP: 1) Adrianza over Miller 2) Gibson over Littell, sending Perez to the bullpen I'm more sure about 1 than 2. Injuries bring in: IF: Astudillo OF: Miller RHP: Littell LHP: Thorpe And I differ on the starting lineup. No platoon: catchers need scheduled days off, and with this offensive bliss, why would you: Cruz Garver Cron Arraez Sano Polanco Rosario Buxton Kepler
  5. ToddlerHarmon
    jz7233 nailed it. Not only does Sano hit 4 of the 10, no one else hits more than 1. If Sano is on when the playoffs start, I feel pretty good, no matter who we are facing.
  6. ToddlerHarmon
    This brings up a question: has a pitcher ever got a Win without throwing a pitch? Same situation as Duffey, but before the first pitch, he picks off a runner. The rulebook would seem to say that's a win.
  7. ToddlerHarmon
    Not to turn this into a bad thing, but doesn't this indicate that MarGo should be hitting near the bottom of the order, instead of his usual 3rd or 6th?
  8. ToddlerHarmon
    Edit the headline please, move the "with" to the right of Matt Canterino
  9. ToddlerHarmon
    Dusten Knight was released by Pensacola three weeks ago, and is now in the Mexican League. I don't know why.
  10. ToddlerHarmon
    Hmm. The three items you notice: the bottom hand not drifting early, the top hand not turning early, and the bottom arm not folding in to the body, all could be indicative of more relative strength in his bottom (left) arm and wrist. Strength training can eliminate strength asymmetry. Buxton is noted for his powerful (right) throwing arm. Are the improvements due to his left arm getting stronger and catching up? Plus, what was the name of the magic cow?
  11. ToddlerHarmon
    Actual question here: does it work that way? I was walking around assuming that once a team non-tenders you, you are a free agent and are contract-to-contract forevermore. But I agree that Falvine decided on a simple definition of low-risk contract: two years or less. And be willing to cut bait on a poor performer even within that short time frame. A simple concept - merit based pay, but it is working out spectacularly.
  12. ToddlerHarmon
    Nice to see some aggressive May promotions. The Twins often wait for late June.
  13. ToddlerHarmon
    From what we have seen of Perez, we might need a starter, too. Romero is my first choice for either role.
  14. ToddlerHarmon
    I see a few possibilities, besides the likely one that it's just an outlier: 1) Defense at third is worth WAY more than we suspect. I like the odds on this one, because I think we have poor metrics on defense, and a poor theory on how the metrics translate to run prevention and to wins. 2) Large numbers of strikeouts are more damaging than we suspect. I can think of a few examples of teams that outperform expectations by striking out less (recent Royals and Astros champions), but that is anecdotal. 3) Extra-base hits given too much weight in run-creation and win-creation models. RC, the basis of WAR, would seem to account for this. But maybe there are factors (e.g. opportunity cost of outs) that are not well-calculated
  15. ToddlerHarmon
    Not in the camp that thinks we are better off with Marwin. But willing to see a silver lining in that Astudillo gets an extended audition.
  16. ToddlerHarmon
    Maybe Kepler can teach him how to integrate the seven basic ballet moves into his swing.
  17. ToddlerHarmon
    All true, but Gagne may have been the best defender among the regular shortstops. Huge range, and reliable.
  18. ToddlerHarmon
    Considering the lack of contracts to starters after 2019, whatever the Twins do, they must not foreclose on him being part of the 2020 rotation. I expect that by the second half of of 2019, he is either a reliever on a contending Twins team, or a starter on a Twins team that is playing for next year.
  19. ToddlerHarmon
    Excellent work! I'd love to see how this trends over more seasons, but the ranges aren't all over the place. The biggest outliers are small market teams, so clearly doing things differently can provide an edge. The trade silence is starting to show issues as we look at the unbalanced ML and AAA rosters, where we have a backlog of outfielders and free swingers, depth problems with middle infielders, and a shortage of high end pitchers and high-quality contact hitters.
  20. ToddlerHarmon
    Thanks for the research. This is a topic to wonder about, but it is very hard to break the stats away from things like league-wide trends and team talent levels. For example, I always had the impression that Vavra was an effective hitting coach. What does it mean that the 2006 team had the same offense as a less-talented 2012 team? Did he do well in getting the most out of talent? For me, since I root for the Twins to win championships, I am most focused on whether major league coaches get elite performance out of elite talent. It strikes me that our most recent coaches have failed at this, though again it is hard to know whether our belief that we have elite talent is correct.
  21. ToddlerHarmon
    Am I correct that the Twins have ZERO dollars guaranteed to anyone next year (notwithstanding buyouts)? Talk about playing for their jobs. That colors whether we "should" add anyone. This looks like Falvine are ready to see whether the team competes in the first half. If so, add some oomph at the deadline, and expect to pick up options and start signing extensions next year. If not, they can clean out a lot of roster spots, and still keep enough talent to jump-start a rebuild. The roster guess sounds reasonable. I think it's possible for Vasquez, Astudillo, and/or Austin to break camp with the team, with Duffey being the most likely to drop on performance alone. I would like to see Astudillo get a chance, and not just for entertainment. He seems the easiest way to add consistent OBP, which is the missing element in this lineup.
  22. ToddlerHarmon
    Not bad, but maybe if Buxton gets it together, he at least walks enough to have an OBP: Buxton Polanco Rosario Cruz Sano Kepler Cron Castro Schoop
  23. ToddlerHarmon
    Interesting that they are all projected to get 2 year deals in the same price range. Also interesting that none of them blocks any prospects even beyond that window. And who said dumpster-diving? All four are actual talents, with multiple years of proven performance including 2018. The only reason for their affordability is they are part of no one's five year plan. I've seen worse uses of payroll and roster spots in these parts
  24. ToddlerHarmon
    Hmmm Buxton portaging Astudillo. More momentum when he hits the wall, but also more padding. It checks out.
  25. ToddlerHarmon
    Yes, creative, and a good talker, but I only like the Astudillo idea. All of Keplers WAR value is currently due to being a good outfielder, so you're going to move him to a spot that demands more offense and less defense? May is too good and needed where he is to mess with. Plus with 2 years of his prime lost to injury, relief would give him a better career. And Romero is too young with too much stuff to give up on him starting. If other options develop for outfield or relief pitching, or if Romero fails to develop as a starter, then maybe. But right now each of these players has the potential to be the best on the team at their current position. Why short-circuit that?
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