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RJA

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  1. RJA
    I agree. Lee has not performed like the number one college bat many thought he was coming into last year's draft. Frankly, the numbers he put up in college may have been a bit deceiving because he put them up in the BigW which is not a power conference. I think it is reasonable to question if he would have had the same numbers playing in the SEC for example. Some have suggested that his performance is due to having to adjust to a professional schedule, but in fact his numbers are about identical for each month this summer, and he certainly couldn't have had difficulty adjusting to a pro schedule from the get-go, unless he is feeling the pressure of being a number one pick. I still like him, but boy, am I the only one wondering if this is another Austin Martin situation? Hopefully, he rallies. So, I agree that anyone of the top 5 should be ahead of Lee and Rodriguez, and there may be others beyond the big 5 that deserve a higher ranking as well.
  2. RJA
    Thanks for all your work on this, Jamie. Great work. It will be very helpful on draft day. I would stick with whichever of the top 5 is available when the time comes to make a pick. But, if they do go with someone else to save some dollars for later picks, I personally hope it is not Gonzalez. I think there are better options including Teel and several others. I hope all these rumors about Gonzalez are just a smokescreen.
  3. RJA
    Great article. One of the many things I love about TD is their detailed, personal stories about prospects, especially local or regional players. Nobody does it better. Thanks.
  4. RJA
    I am the son of two fathers on this issue. I actually believe the Twins have a rotation that could do damage in the postseason when starting pitching is so crucial to success. So, part of me thinks we should add a bat and a top notch reliever, preferably players who have postseason experience and have demonstrated that they can perform under pressure. But, the other part of me is terribly afraid of this front office making more deadline trades after getting robbed by the Reds and Orioles last year. Trading the farm for a pitcher with a bad arm and a pitcher with 3 months of success and years of no success makes me question whether they will simply blunder into more bad trades and further weaken the farm system. Imagine where we would be today with Steer, CES, Povich and, frankly, Cano instead of Mahle and Lopez. Steer would especially look good at third, and Cano couldn't be worse than Lopez. So, do we roll the dice with this FO group again, or do we stand pat?
  5. RJA
    I am not quite sure what point you are making. I think you need to read what I said more carefully as you are not getting what I said. Have a good day.
  6. RJA
    Our current rotation has one pitcher who was drafted by the Twins—Ober Varland and Winder have yet to prove themselves. Jax as you know is not in the rotation. But, my basic point is that the Twins have not drafted college hitters in the first round and traded them for pitching. Who besides Rooker was traded for pitching? That statement in the article is simply not correct. As I noted, Petty, Hajjar and Povich were traded for pitching, not hitters.
  7. RJA
    Who are the hitters the Twins have drafted in the first round in the last 10 years that they have flipped for major league starters? Maybe you could say Rooker, but that would be it. Cavaco, Sabato, Lewis, Kirilloff, Miller, Lee, and Larnach have not been flipped for pitching. Steer was a third round pick, and CES was drafted in the fourth round. They traded Petty, Hajjar, Povich but they aren’t bats. I don’t know what you are referring to. It appears to me they are attracted to college bats—Larnach, Wallner, Sabato and Lee, and what they perceive to be toolsy high school players—Cavaco, Lewis, Miller. But, they haven’t really traded them for pitching. And, they haven’t really developed any of their drafted pitchers other than Ober for the rotation. I like Lowder but I don’t think they will draft him.
  8. RJA
    Everyone trades for gosh sakes, but are you suggesting Tampa and Cleveland haven’t developed more pitchers than the Twins? That simply is not true. Take a look at who they have developed in the past 7 years compared to the Twins. As for Varland, he has not proven he belongs as yet, so he is still a maybe IMHO. I agree about Ryan being a great trade though his minor league numbers were very good. My point is, you simply can’t survive by trading for your nearly your whole rotation, you need to develop your own and Falvey has not done that despite his reputation as a pitching guru.
  9. RJA
    Well, I could say a lot about their philosophy on hitting, but let’s just consider what they haven’t done on the pitching development front. Ober has worked out. Gray was obtained in a trade. Lopez was obtained in a trade. Ryan was obtained in a trade. Maeda was obtained in a trade. Paddack was obtained in a trade. Mahle was obtained in a trade. So, who did this expert Falvey draft and develop? Ober and……. This myth that he knows how to develop pitching is just that, a myth. We lose CES, Steer, Petty, Povich, Hajjar, and others precisely because he has been unable to draft and develop pitching. And who is coming up at the AAA level? Varland? Maybe. Balazovic? Questionable at the very best. SWR? Questionable/Maybe. Winder? Questionable. 7 years with the Twins and he has produced one starting pitcher—Ober.
  10. RJA
    Let's not rearrange the furniture on the Titanic. First, replace Baldelli and the hitting coach. Maybe hire people who have a few grey hairs and some real experience, much like what the Braves have done. Find people with experience, saavy, AND an appreciation for analytics. This group of players needs a firmer hand and someone who holds them accountable. Second, replace Kepler and Gallo in the lineup with Wallner and Larnach. Will they be better, who knows? But, they are young and have some potential to grow. Kepler and Gallo have learning curves that are horizontal. Finally, at the end of the season, replace the FO with people who appreciate analytics AND experience. The difference between how smart these guys think they are and how smart they really are is breathtaking.
  11. RJA
    Frankly, Rocco should go. I am not saying he doesn't have strengths, but this team does not play with any sense of urgency, and does not make adjustments. He is a "player's manager", but I suggest that this team needs someone who demands more accountability and has a stronger personality. As Gleeman pointed out, since May we have the third worst record in the American League. Watching this team flail away at the plate makes them almost unwatchable. Yes, the players need to perform, but it is a manager's job to make sure they do. Rocco has been unable to do that for whatever reason. The buck stops with him with regard to onfield performance. And for heaven's sake, why are we still running Kepler and Gallo out there instead of Wallner? The FO has also bungled things in a major way, giving away Steer, Povich, CES and others for injured and/or players with little history of performance. And, dare I mention Pagan? I am almost afraid of what they might do at this trade deadline. It is truly a sad situation.
  12. RJA
    Thanks for the summary, Seth. Thus far this summer it seems some top prospects are struggling while some new/less heralded players are doing very well. Who among the position players and pitchers have the most helium and might climb in the next prospect rankings?
  13. RJA
    This whole situation is indicative of what major league sports has become. It used to be that managers and coaches led the teams, and together with management, made decisions solely based upon what was best for the teams. Tom Kelly and Bud Grant are examples of old school managers and coaches. No one doubted who ran the teams when they were present. Now the mega stars with huge paychecks have tremendous influence over everything managers and coaches do. Heck, the players flat out run the NBA. In the Twins situation, Baldelli and the front office give way too much consideration to what the players want rather than what is in the team’s best interest. It is the new style of leadership—part camp counselor, part cheerleader, and part negotiator—all designed to keep certain players happy because they are now co-decision makers. When a team is doing well, nobody notices, but when those players are tanking, and nursing injuries, it brings the current management style into focus. When you add an over dependence on analytics (which are a great tool for sure) creating a one shoe fits all approach to hitting, it adds to the problem. It is simply the new reality in sports. The old style had issues as well, but I fear there needs to be a happy medium.
  14. RJA
    Thanks, Seth. Lee has been struggling a bit at the plate this year. Any insight on the nature of the struggle? Nice to see him step up yesterday.
  15. RJA
    Agree, but that was not the case in 2021 as he played 1B, 2B, 3B and LF across two levels. Hopefully, they stick with the 2022 plan.
  16. RJA
    These things always work themselves out in spring training. Whoever is sent down, we all know there will be injuries, so many roster changes will be forthcoming during the summer. Honestly, aren't we all happy that there is not enough "room" for everyone? Boy, I remember down years (and last year during the injury pandemic) when we had guys on the roster that should never have been here. This will be a fun spring training.
  17. RJA
    Like others on this site, I have been a fan of Julien's potential for a couple of years. I know it will be difficult for him to crack the lineup absent an injury, but if he tears up St. Paul like he did AA, he will be here this year. I think with Correa, Polanco, and Miranda, and hopefully a healthy Kirilloff, plus Julien, Lee, Lewis, and Martin if the Twins let him be himself, all on the horizon, I would not be surprised if the Twins spring a trade, at least by the deadline. I do wish they would stick Juien at one position and let him get comfortable. Correa was right, the young talent on this team is much better than many believe. This will be a fun year both at the major league and minor league level.
  18. RJA
    This is the only kid in the system with true superstar potential, and the first since Buxton I would say (some would add Lewis but I don't think he showed as much early as this kid). I can't wait to see how he progresses. He is the number one minor league player I will be following this summer. Should be fun.
  19. RJA
    Outstanding work. My three favorites: always my first choice, match Maeda in heaven, and you Rocco my world. What about Falvey--I'm Falvey in love with you.
  20. RJA
    The FO may be right that the bullpen is fine, and I certainly hope that is the case. But, I suspect Twins fans will get restless real quick if Pagan and Lopez come out and blow some games early. Hopefully, they both start out strong and Duran remains other worldly in his performance.
  21. RJA
    Great talent. I think the bat is so good that they will find a place for him sometime this summer or next year. I sometimes think that moving guys around the diamond in situations like this may not be the answer. It may work for players who are blessed with great athletic skills--like Lewis--but I question if it helps players who are not quite so naturally gifted athletically. Maybe it would be better to give him a primary position and work his tail off at that position to make him better ala Corey Koskie. Part of improving defensive play is giving a player enough reps at a position to generate some confidence, and give him a "feel" for the position. In any event, the bat will carry him one way or the other.
  22. RJA
    Good point on home run record, however I disagree with your historically overrated take. As for being historically overrated, the 2019 team had the second best winning percentage, .623, in the Twins 60 plus year history, with only the 1965 Twins winning percentage of .630 being better. In fact, if you add the Senators history to ours, in the 120 year plus history of the franchise, 2019 winning percentage rates the 4th best. How can a team with the 4th best record in the 120 plus year history of the franchise be historically overrated?
  23. RJA
    I think you need to judge each team based on the results of that particular year. The Bomba Squad won 101 games and set a major league homerun record. Yes, the ball was juiced, but it was juiced for everyone else as well. Every other team faced the exact same conditions as the Twins. For the conditions of that particular year, the Bomba Squad was not overrated. They had some success in 2020, but then the roof caved in. Just because the team did not become a dynasty, does not mean they were not exceptional in that particular year. Let's forget the 3 game sweep by the Yanks in the playoffs as that is the obvious result of some kind of curse:).
  24. RJA
    SWR is the opposite of Salas and Prielipp. Salas and Prielipp were rated where they were based on potential rather than a track record, while SWR is rated where he is based on a track record at AA and AAA rather than the overall quality of his offerings. He seems to be a bit of an overachiever. While I don't think he will be a front of the rotation type guy, his poise and demeanor, and the likelihood his stuff is likely to improve as he works on his pitches, will make him a solid mid rotation type guy. It will be interesting to see how he develops this year.
  25. RJA
    I know I sound like the Grinch after questioning where Salas was placed (Law has him 5 in his ratings, and Gleeman 8-12 in his ratings), but I have to make the same argument here. This rating is based only on potential and comes after a major surgery. I LOVE this kid's potential, but boy there is zero track record. Still, I hope and expect he will do well.
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