RJA

Good point that he has not proven himself over time. Hopefully, that will come. But as to your Mays reference, he is at least as good as Mays defensively, and maybe better. I am not suggesting that he is as accomplished as Mays from a complete player or career standpoint, but his defensive skills are as good as I have seen in my many, many years of watching centerfielders. As you suggest, only time will tell if his career and longevity will justify putting him in either Trout or Mays category as complete players.

I think Karbo hit the nail on the head. As for talent, I think he is an equal to Trout, potentially maybe better. Defensively, I am old enough to have seen Mays play CF on trips to SF, and he was the best defensive CF I had ever seen until Buxton. Buxton is as good, maybe even a tad better than Mays, defensively. Offensively, he has the potential to be better than Trout but we can't say that until he performs consistently over a period of time. Let's hope this is the year. Actually, we have two generational talents on the team this year--Buxton and Correa. They will be fun to watch.

Thanks for the response. I have heard that Mazur's heater is getting better with some scouts predicting that he could hit triple digits as a pro.

I can't wait. I'm not sure the kid will do well or not, but I don't think the moment will be too big for him. Let's hope Ryan versus Ray is a matchup we see a lot of in the next few years. But, I can't help but wonder how good this team could be if we had signed Ray. Ray, Gray, Ryan, Ober would have been a nice top 4 for our rotation. Still, if Ryan comes up big this year, it would greatly boost our chances, and maybe Manaea or Montas will find their way here at the deadline.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Sanchez. If he surprises and hits well because he feels less pressure than in New York, I think we will all be happy. But, if he doesn't, I am not sure what you do with him--a catcher who can't hit and can't catch would be a giant waste of a roster spot. Let's hope for the best.

Love the draft updates, thanks. Jeremy, what are you hearing about some of the upper Midwest players like Adam Mazur and Drew Gilbert, and some of the high school kids?

I think you have captured how a lot of Twins fans feel, Dave. We are excited for the season to start, we want the team to do well, but we all recognize how many things have to go right for the Twins to contend. It will be interesting to revisit your article on July 1 to see how many "ifs" turned out ok and how many remain a problem. Let's hope we are all thinking about who the Twins can pick up at the deadline to help with their pennant run.

This is exactly where I am at. I would keep Moran over Stashak.

I agree with others, great summary, but as a former professor, I think you are guilty of grade inflation. Gray was a good move. Donaldson may have been a clubhouse cancer, but when they traded him, they were left with no shortstop, and one less professional hitter. The Correa deal simply fell into their lap as Boras was looking for a place to park Correa for a year. I only credit them for saying yes to a no brainer deal. Story was never coming here from all reports. But, the biggest criticism I have is that they were caught flat footed last fall and didn't sign a single free agent pitcher from the best and deepest class in history. That might cost them a real chance to make a run this year. So, prior to Correa, I would have given them a D. After Correa, a C+ based on what the didn't do to strengthen the biggest weakness on the team--pitching.

Just the mention of Colome makes me shudder. Rogers looks sharp but I agree with PatPfund that Thielbar may not have a bunch left in the tank. I hope I'm wrong. Duran could really be an asset if they keep him.

I think it is best Celestino plays regularly at St. Paul. He really showed well there last year, and I think to give him another half year or year to continue to improve and gain confidence is the right call. It will be interesting to see how the pitching falls out and whether Winder and Duran break with the Twins. I think Rocco might want them both from the get-go.

I agree that fans need to relax and enjoy baseball once the season begins, and I also agree that it would be a colossal mistake to grossly overpay for Montas or Manaea. But, I think many fans are rightfully frustrated with the FO over how they handled free agency last fall and this spring. In free agency, a team is not subject to the whims and unreasonable requests of trading partners. The Twins may need to overpay some given that we are not a "choice" location for some big time players, but it would cost them nothing in terms of prospect capital. IF they had signed someone last fall from the deepest and best free agent pitching class in history, the could have added Gray and had a solid to excellent starting rotation. Then, when Correa fell in their lap, the Twins would have been in great shape, and could have added another short term piece at the deadline if needed. However, the fact that I think the FO messed up the offseason does not mean I am not excited to see what this team can do. Once they say "play ball", the offseason is history and we cheer for our team.

I worry about Cave as well--he is like a cat with 9 baseball lives. I don't think they will keep Larnach, Celestino, or Miranda simply to have them spend time on the bench. They probably want them to play every day. If they are not going to play regularly, I think they will send them down. I suspect it will be Arraez, Godoy, Gordon, and Rooker (or Cave?) unless they think they can get a lot of at bats for Larnach in which case he would replace Rooker.

Interesting take, Matt. I guess I am convinced that signing Smith is less reflective of an overall philosophy with respect to velocity than it is of an overall philosophy to sign cheap relievers. I think the old guy/low velocity signings you mentioned had one thing in common: they were cheap additions. I think the philosophy of the FO is to let the market play out and sign the best of the rest at reduced rates. Given the on again, off again nature of relievers, I am not sure that is a bad philosophy, but you aren't likely to get any shut down relievers that way who would help you win a pennant.

Larnach, Kirilloff and Rooker are the best candidates. I'm pretty sure the present roster is not how the Twins drew it up last fall. I don't think they thought they could compete this year or they would have signed at LEAST a mid tier pitcher in free agency. I think they were gunning for 2023 thinking that a couple of their pitchers would arrive by then. I think they were really planning to make Sano the primary DH while rotating others through the spot, to split Kirilloff between first and left, to have Donaldson at third (I don't think they thought they would be able to move him) with Arraez spelling him and Polanco and being a DH sometimes, to give Rooker a chance in left, and to trade Garver for a good defensive shortstop leaving Jeffers and Rortvedt as catchers. I think they were looking to add a pitcher by trade who could help them for two years and accomplished that by adding Gray. Then, after the Garver trade, they looked set until the Yankees presented them with a deal they couldn't refuse and it really messed things up position wise. Apparently their desire to dump Donaldson was greater than their desire to have a good/decent shortstop. To accomplish that they took back a DH in Sanchez and Urshela to replace Donaldson. They were really stuck with no shortstop as it was clear Story wasn't interested and reports are that they were never really close to signing him, and then Correa was dropped in their lap by Boras. Now they are stuck with one of the best players on the planet (Buck might be another) with a significant pitching shortage. Their whole posture has been reactive and their biggest failure was not signing a pitcher last fall, or this spring. They offered Rodon 18 million for one year. Is it any surprise he signed with the Giants for 2 years at 44 million? Had they signed one pitcher, things would be looking a lot better right now. I know they are trying to be consistent and not make long term commitments to pitchers, but sometimes consistency truly is the hobgoblin of small minds. Sometimes you have to be flexible or else you are stuck standing in the game of musical chairs for pitching.

Good roster prediction. I think they will start Larnach at St. Paul to let him work on his approach and develop some confidence. Same for Celestino. I think Jax is in for sure in a relief role. I think Stashak is more likely to be on the bubble. I wonder if Cave might not sneak back in at least to start the year--just sayin'.

The top 5 for me versus righty: Buxton, Arraez, Correa, Polanco, Kirilloff. The top 5 for me versus lefty: Buxton, Polanco, Correa, Sano, Kirilloff.

Thanks, Matt. Very informative article. I have three thoughts. One, 20 of the 30 prospects have a 2022 or 2023 ETA. I know these predictions are not exact, but right now the Twins system is loaded with players who are close to ready. Two, I am intrigued by Raya, Rodriquez, and Miller. When they first drafted Miller I was thinking it was an ok pick, but the more I read on him from all sources, he could be a very good major league shortstop, and he can switch hit. Finally, Palacios is a good story, and if he has another very good year at the plate, he could be in the running for the shortstop position next year. His defense is excellent.

We have a great shortstop--maybe the best--for one year. If Lewis shows well at AAA, he will inherit the job. If not, and if (when) Correa opts out, we will be back in the free agent or trade market. I am just going to bask in the joy of having him for one year and worry about next year, next winter. For doubleheaders or for a short term injury, Urshela can cover adequately. If he suffers a significant injury--no, I am not even going there.

Great detailed article. Thanks, Nash. What will be fun to watch is the WAR contest between Correa and Buxton IF Buck (and Correa) stay healthy all year. Buck had 4.2 WAR last year in 254 plate appearances which is really amazing. Actually, we have two superstars on this team. Let's pray for health.

I agree with many others that the FO needs another frontline pitcher, but having sat on their thumbs all fall, they have ended up between a rock and a hard place. Either overpay for an arm or go with a youngster. Having said that, this is a good time and environment to bring up a young starter. The defense up the middle is with Buxton, Polanco, Correa and Jeffers is first rate. Urshela at third is excellent as is Kepler in right. Left if it is Kirilloff is ok. Winder would have plays made behind him to take off some of the pressure. Plus, this team should score runs which should also help the transition. Finally, there are enough experienced leaders on this team with Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Gray, Rogers, etc. to give him good support. I say go for it.

Good article, Theo. It is great to see former players reaching out to help another generation of players. You know, if baseball is in your blood, you never lose the passion for the game. Good for Dana.

I think with Urshela, Arraez and the emergence of Miranda and Martin, the Twins are fine at 3rd base. The comparison between Urshela and Donaldson is based on one year which happened to be Urshela's worst. It is not reflective of reality. He is a good third baseman defensively, and has shown well with the bat in prior years. Absent trades, I think the Twins will start with Urshela at third, spotting him at short and second once in a while, and see what happens. If he is solid but Miranda and Martin are raking, it is a great problem to have and as mikelink45 noted, they could move him at the deadline. If he continues on his 2021 pace, Miranda or Martin will get the call.

Good article. Thank you. I was just thinking how right you and Rena are about new fans not understanding the game. When you don't grow up in a baseball fan household, it is difficult to learn about the game. But the beauty of the game is that the more you understand it, the more interesting it becomes. Great article with interesting perspectives.

I was pulling up defensive gems by Buxton and Correa, and as I watched I was thinking that both of these players are generational talents, both offensively and defensively. While injuries have impeded Buck more than Correa, if both are healthy they could be the best shortstop and center fielder in the game this year. When is the last time the Twins have had two generational talents on the same team, both in their prime?