Jump to content
Can the Twins take advantage of a reeling Mets team? Join the discussion! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,082

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Congratulations to Tristan Gray! After years of hard work he is on an opening day roster. In the last 10 years he has played with 14 teams including a stop in Perth, Australia. Make the most of it Tristan.
  2. jorgenswest
    Congratulations to Tristan Gray! After years of hard work he is on an opening day roster. In the last 10 years he has played with 14 teams including a stop in Perth, Australia. Make the most of it Tristan.
  3. jorgenswest
    This one reversed a strike out. It is simply disrespect to umpires to overturn a call where at this point ABS truly has no idea of the ball is in the strike zone or not. The closer it is to the edge I would bet on the human seeing the movement of the ball over ABS. Image from the Athletic story. I am sure some are watching and marveling about the precision of ABS. They don’t realize there is a tolerance and ABS isn’t certain of the exact location of the ball.
  4. jorgenswest
    @Riverbrian I am with you. They need to identify talent. Roster Outman? That’s fine but do it because you believe he can help you starting 3 or 4 games a week. Do it because you believe there is a reasonable chance (33%?) that the player that 3rd in rookie of the year balloting is still there. Don’t do it because you might need a centerfielder. If they don’t have enough confidence to give him those starts roster someone else.
  5. jorgenswest
    It should be a really high bar. Umpires were very accurate last year. Approximately 42-43.5 percent of pitches were 0-0.5 inches away from the edge of the plate. Of those about 90 pitches a game both ABS and humans are going to miss some particularly as it gets closer to 0. No one will know for certain which is correct. Shouldn’t MLB simply acknowledge that there are some pitches close enough to the edge that they aren’t sure whether the human or ABS is correct? Maybe that is less than 0.4 inches. It should be something. Outside that chosen range send the call down to home plate and fix it. Inside that range acknowledge that ABS is not certain. Show respect to umpires who otherwise will have some correct calls on close pitches overturned by the inaccuracy of ABS.
  6. jorgenswest
    I wonder if Outman will get the DeShawn Keirsey playing time role. If that is the case I don’t want Roden instead of Outman. I want him here instead of Larnach. There is always so much angst about the 13th or sometimes 12th position player who won’t get that much playing time. For me it is Roden over Larnach. That might look like Roden at 1B and Bell at DH or it could look like Roden in LF over Larnach. Just a note to add that @Riverbrian has advocated that all 13 position players be utilized. I am not sure that any team does that but this might be the team that needs to do it. If usage is like last year I prefer Outman in the Keirsey role.
  7. jorgenswest
    I do. I will fix. Thanks.
  8. jorgenswest
    The Athletic had an article today that some data I had seen before but couldn’t recall. According to MLB the ABS system is 95% confident that the ABS is no more than 0.39 inches from its predicted location. It is 99% confident that it is no more than .48 inches from its predicted location. That makes me wonder if MLB should be overturning calls that are within a half inch or four tenths of an inch. They could be overturning a human call that is actually correct. Perhaps it should be labeled inconclusive in that range and go with the human call. The team keeps their challenge. Human umps were deemed 92.83% accurate last year and the best were better than 95% accurate. In truth humans were more accurate than 92.83%. That 92.83% assumes that robo umps are 100% accurate. MLB confirms they aren’t. Some of those 7.17% “bad calls” were actually correct and ABS had it wrong. I don’t think baseball was looking to solve a problem with the ABS system. I think they were looking to manufacture drama. The argument that ABS is consistent doesn’t work on close pitches. The solution to the problem is simple. Acknowledge that it isn’t perfect and then automatically reverse calls that are outside that 1/2 inch (or 0.4 inches) tolerance. Don’t waste time on challenges. Every time a call is overturned inside that tolerance this year we need to realize that the human may have had it right. Baseball is a great game and doesn’t need this manufactured drama.
  9. jorgenswest
    I see it so different. Baseball is entertainment to me. The hours I spent listening and watching last year were not a waste. They won’t be a waste this year. If they were a waste to me I would spend that time elsewhere.
  10. jorgenswest
    Roden has played 1B. He plays a solid outfield so his defense would be a waste at 1B. I looked to some reports from college when he was acquired and his defense at 1B was also solid. The Twins would be wise to play at first base a few times a week in St. Paul,
  11. jorgenswest
    Roden has two options left. Rodriguez has 1. I would have had them both on the roster but priority to Rodriguez. His season might look like struggle initially or struggle once the league sees him. He can then go get reset on his option and return. That would give him the off-season to build off of that. I don’t know if he will have a career as a starter in the major leagues. The path to that role might need some up and down. He only has one year left to do that. Roden needs to be up too.
  12. jorgenswest
    I think it is likely that Kreidler will be DFA’d at some point early. Roster spots will be needed. If he does get called back up they need him to agree to never challenge a pitch. I know it was preseason but he used the Twins last challenge in one of the games this weekend. Let’s save those challenges for batter that can do damage after he wins the call.
  13. jorgenswest
    Urshela, Chafin and Hendriks were all acquired after Falvey left as well as some other veterans. I wonder if Falvey’s plan was to avoid those veteran signings. The time Zoll gave to those veterans in camp and in games is wasted. I am glad they are moving on though.
  14. jorgenswest
    I have no idea if this is the right decision. They have seen him throwing in many workouts so it is much more than a handful of innings in spring games. I do appreciate that they are willing to quickly move on from an older player. I hope that pattern continues.
  15. jorgenswest
    They have DFA’d Ryan Fitzgerald and Vidal Brujan this off season. Gray and Kreidler come to the Twins after being DFA’d multiple times.
  16. jorgenswest
    Arcia. Kreidler can be removed from 40. Gray can also. Both have most value as depth in AAA off of the 40.
  17. jorgenswest
    Is it possible they are still hoping to find a position that fits other than 1B/DH? . The Twins have drafted Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Julien and now Keaschall. All college infielders. It shouldn’t be surprising that they have had a difficult time finding a position that fits. They didn’t finish college at shortstop. Major league second basemen almost all were drafted as shortstops and started their minor league careers as a shortstop.
  18. jorgenswest
    I wouldn’t react to traditional stats in spring. I wouldn’t react to traditional regular season stats until June either and then it would be walk and strikeout rates. I do think there are pitch level stats that don’t need large samples and can be considered. With that data you can also compare to previous AAA data and wonder if there has been an approach, pitch recognition or swing change. Comparing with AAA and looking for change might eliminate some concern about the 94 or 86.
  19. jorgenswest
    Teams across the MLB are doing the same. I think it is part procedural and happens every spring at this time. I am not fully sure of the reason for the timing. One piece is that if a player on the 40 man that hasn’t been optioned gets injured now they would need to be on the major league IL earning service time. Speculation on my part is that it is close enough now that if they were put on the opening day roster an option would not be used.
  20. jorgenswest
    Second base is Clemens best spot. He haD a 112 OPS+ against right handed pitching to go with a positive career OAA and DRS at 2B. He underperformed his contact numbers last year suggesting that if anything he had bad luck. Keaschall’s upside gives him the job but I don’t think he can match Clemens defensively. Keaschall’s bat is his ticket. The best line up against right handed pitching might be to find a way to get both in the game.
  21. jorgenswest
    Players aren’t fixed on their previous slash. Sometimes players take a step forward in the winter. Sometimes teams figure out to pitch them more effectively. I certainly would not be fixed in thinking he is the same player as 2025 where he received sporadic major league playing time. Outman has a career 94 OPS+. He can play an above average centerfield. He has some speed. He strikes out way too much. He is 28. Has he changed? Triple slash stats are worthless but his plate discipline can be compared to both his very unsuccessful time in the majors as well as his successful time in the minors. His swing rate was virtually the same at both levels last year. His swing rate this spring is up 5%. His contact rate is up 8.6% over his AAA contact rate last year where he was successful. Why AAA? He isn’t seeing exclusively major league pitchers. If there is a change it should show up when compared to AAA. Both his swinging strike and his called strike rates are down compared to his AAA numbers. He has seen 125 pitches which is meaningful when looking at swing stats. The Twins will have access to bat tracking that may show a change. Does that mean there has been a change in his pitch recognition or approach or swing? Possibly. He is a major leaguer if he can hit an OPS+ of 90 or better to go with his glove. He may have done enough this spring to make a major league roster.
  22. jorgenswest
    I wonder if this is a big concern for the Brewers and Dodgers.
  23. jorgenswest
    I have been wondering about pitchers dood at locating with a lot of movement adjusting from the 3-D to 2-D strike zone. What about the pitchers that can throw the strike thats hit the front corner but is off the plate by the middle edge or that back door pitch that didn’t enter the strike zone until after the middle of the plate or the pitcher that hits the strike zone at the front of the plate but drops out by the middle? Will those movement and location skilled pitchers need to capture more of the plate and drop in effectiveness? Will they replaced by more pitchers with velocity? I hope not. Going 2-D will shrink the strike zone,
  24. jorgenswest
    I would absolutely have the 6th stater in the pen assuming he is better pitcher than the 7th reliever. Several teams did this last year. The Phillies had Walker in the 6th starter role. He was in the pen all of June. In July he was needed back in the rotation. He had thrown 33 pitches in his last relief outing. In his first start he threw 63 and the next start 70. Then he was back on track. There are other examples. Brad Lord with the Nationals moved from the pen to the rotation twice. He went from 50 pitches his first start to 92 pitches his third start. Hayden Birdsong, Ryan Gusto, Jacob Latz and Eric Lauer moved from the pen to the rotation. Lauer pitched for the AL champion Blue Jays. I would take the 12 best arms. I think it is better for the development of all of those pitchers to face major league hitters. Even if they stash a guy in AAA there is no guarantee his schedule will line up with the Twins need for a start. A few years ago Ober was the 6th starter in AAA but he wasn’t available when needed so they had to go with Varland. It isn’t that hard. The minds of the leadership should not be fixed on a role of starter or reliever.
  25. jorgenswest
    It would be a good thing if the Twins have 5 starters better than. I also think it is beneficial to the team if the 6th starter is in the pen facing major league hitters. Several teams transitioned a bullpen arm to starter when they had a need last year. It doesn’t take that many starts.
×
×
  • Create New...