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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The Florimon addition hasn't been temporary. I wish they had given Romero the chance. I know that they would have 40 man roster issues, but they could have been resolved. Romero has been in the organization for many years. He is having a good year with the bat in AAA and is deserving of the opportunity.
  2. jorgenswest
    Great story! He is 25. His opportunity will come. I hope they have a plan to entrust lower leverage bullpen roles to younger players next year. It is too easy to find a veteran bullpen arm in the winter.
  3. jorgenswest
    It was a mistake to extend Burton into this season. It could have been foreseen. It is to easy to believe that a player in their thirties will remain at the same level of performance two years later. The reality is different. http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php/1968-Burton-What-s-is-the-Future-for-a-31-Year-Old-Set-Up-Man Similarly, the Twins extended Ryan Doumit in June 2012 after 3 months of good play. He was given a contract through 2014. He did not perform at near the same level of the first three months. Burton and Doumit also were performing better than their previous few seasons in 2012 so they not only should have been expected to decline but also expected to regress to their mean. The Twins face a similar decision this year. Kurt Suzuki is 30. He is having a season much better than his previous two. It must be really tempting to give him a multiyear extension. He certainly will be seeking that last good contract this winter.
  4. jorgenswest
    It isn't predictive, but Burton made a big contribution today.
  5. jorgenswest
    Article from Fangraphs including Brian Dozier. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-counting-clicks-with-twins-mets-padres-red-sox/
  6. jorgenswest
    Imagine how bad it would be if he had Pinto behind the plate.
  7. jorgenswest
    Sell high is a term relative to each player. Suzuki has raised the bar on his value with his performance this year. The Twins have an opportunity to sell and that return will likely have more value than he 2.75 million they committed last winter. If "sell high" is not the right term, I struggle to find something better.
  8. jorgenswest
    Suzuki's performance this year is the definition of sell high. He is out performing all of his recent seasons. He plays a position where decline comes earlier. He is 30 years old. His contract is up at the end of the year. The Twins have some options. They can sell high. They can buy high. They can let his contract run out. I am certain Suzuki would listen to an extension offer. If I were him, I would be looking for three years. This will be his last good contract. He is not going to sign a team friendly one year deal in season. Like we saw with extensions given to Burton and Doumit, players often don't age well into their thirties. It is even more likely for Suzuki given his outlier season and workload at catcher. Sign him to a multiyear deal and they could be watching him hit .220 with league bottom defense for the next three years. Assuming the Twins don't go on a Royal like streak in the next month, I am selling high and taking the best offer. I will look for another one year option in the winter to mix with Pinto.
  9. jorgenswest
    I don't think they can do both well. They may improve to mediocre but while the young players improve (if given regular at bats and starts) the older players decline and the team stays mediocre. If they are going to play a franchise record number of 30 year olds, they need to be more than competitive. They need to contend because as a group they will decline next year and the younger players will not have been given the time to struggle and improve.
  10. jorgenswest
    I am glad these guys didn't need to force their way into the line up. Hunter OPS+ 76 after 2 years Morneau OPS+ 93 in this third year (100 over 3 for a 1B) Gaetti OPS+ 89 after 4 seasons Radke 4.84 ERA after first 64 games. Led in HR given up each of first two seasons. Viola 5.38 ERA after first 56 starts Santana 6.49 ERA 54 walks in 86 innings The Twins could have spent money on decline phase veterans that would have been likely to out perform any of these players in their early seasons. They could have won more games in those seasons. They didn't spend the money and invested many at bats and innings into these players. It might take 1000 at bats or 50 starts before the investment pays off. In a case like Luis Rivas, the investment may not pay off. When it does, the rewards are worth any extra losses in those rebuilding seasons.
  11. jorgenswest
    Sign me up for going young like they did in 82-83 and 99-00. With each loss, I know I will see hope in the upside of the young players.
  12. jorgenswest
    With Pinto catching, Perkins has struck out 11 and walked 3 guys in 10.1 innings this year. I guess those strikes must have all been swinging strikes.
  13. jorgenswest
    I don't see how the organization, Pinto or Perkins are better off with his comments. Perkins has some repair to do in that relationship. I hope he has started that repair and it takes place in house. In any case, Pinto is not the problem. He was signed by the Twins at 16 years old. He had 8 seasons of training in the minor leagues. Framing pitches is a skill that can be taught if it is a priority to the organization.
  14. jorgenswest
    Suzuki is a better catcher today. In terms of framing and throwing he has been below average for years. That isn't going to change. Pinto did better last September in his call up when he was getting more consistent play and the numbers weren't anchored down with the bias of catching primarily Deduno. In any case, Suzuki isn't a good solution for 2015. We need to know if Pinto can be a solution. Assuming the a Twins are not within a few games of the wild card, he needs to catch 6 games a week starting August 1.
  15. jorgenswest
    The return will for their veteran corner players or relievers will not look exciting and certain to be criticized. They still need to make the trades. I would look for guys 23 and younger that play SS, CF, C or SP and have been at least 2 years younger than their leagues. They won't have good numbers otherwise they would be a good prospect. They will have the upside of age and positional value. I hope they can get a little more for Suzuki. They can get above value if other catchers join Weiters on the disabled list.
  16. jorgenswest
    At every trade deadline there are many rumors. Rumors planted by teams on order to drive up value. Rumors started by agents to generate interest. There is no way to know of there is any substance. The reality is that there are very few trades of very good prospects. Last year there were four guys traded that appeared on a top 100 list kept by baseball reference. Avisial Garcia appeared on one list. Jose Iglesias and Mike Olt appeared in all three. The fourth CJ Edwards was on the rise and appeared on 2014 lists (but not 2013). Iglesias and Garcia were involved in the same three way trade with Jake Peavy. The other two were part of the Garza deal. If you want to get a very good prospect, trade a middle to top of the rotation starting pitcher. Catchers, shortstops and centerfielders also can get better prospects because they can not easily be replaced. Corner players and relievers are in abundance and get little in return in trade. Here is a list of all of the 2012 trades. We know for sure that these were the teams willing to deal for a corner player. Where does Willingham go? The Twins were better off keeping him. Looking through the many C prospects that exchanged hands that summer, the Twins look to have done pretty well with Escobar.
  17. jorgenswest
    Great show last night! Thanks for the hard work.
  18. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the article. I would be happy with a couple of C prospects with the upside of youth on their side similar to the return for Liriano.
  19. jorgenswest
    It probably should be added that Dan Turkenkopf has worked in the office of a major league team for the last two seasons. He and Mike Fast were significant contributors to the study. The Tampa Bay Rays hired him. I don't think there is any disagreement on which side of the argument the Rays have taken in this debate.
  20. jorgenswest
    Most recent trades at the deadline are for marginal prospects. They will involve relievers or corner players, players with a lot of money left or rentals. The supply of these kinds of players is larger and the return is small. The players that get the best return in trade have positional value. Starting catchers, shortstops, center fielders and middle to the top of the rotation starting pitchers. They get the good return. It is difficult to make trades when you don't have the assets that get a good return. So much has been made of the Twins failing to trade Willingham at the 2012 deadline. If you look at the trades that summer, there were few trades where the other team would have taken Willingham. The best return for a corner player involved Hunter Pence. Would the Giants have taken Willingham over Hunter Pence? It was reported earlier that spring that Willingham wasn't comfortable in RF. Playing RF at AT&T is very difficult. If the Giants had the option, they certainly chose the right player. The good prospect in the Pence deal was Tommy Joseph. He is not a top 100 guy and is in AA two years after the trade and struggling in AAA last year. So maybe the Twins missed out on Tommy Joseph. It is hard to blame the organization for sticking with Willingham. If the Twins become sellers this year, they will have little to trade as they have little the previous few years. Fans will be disappointed. It would be so nice to acquire a player like Jean Segura or Nate Eovaldi. It takes a Zach Grienke or Hanley Ramirez to get that return.
  21. jorgenswest
    I don't agree about the small sample. FIP uses home run rate which needs a very large sample to stabilize. xFIP uses fly ball rate which does stabilize more quickly but assumes a league average home run rate. SIERRA is promising and adjusts for environment and thus needs a large sample. At this point, looking at anything beyond the basic rate statistics of strikeouts, walks, ground balls and fly balls in the 2014 data has little predictive value. For relievers, strike out rate may be the only data that is useful. The Twins really need to rely of the expertise of their minor league staff and scouts and their observations. There is little to learn from the numbers to help make decisions in a partial season.
  22. jorgenswest
    If it ever makes sense to start Florimon, it would make sense today given Gobson's ground ball tendency.
  23. jorgenswest
    Glen Perkins talked about Josmil Pinto and his ability to frame pitches. He didn't mention Kurt Suzuki. I guess he wasn't asked. Nor was he asked about Ryan Doumit in previous years. Since 2011 it has been debated about the Twins decision making on catcher and defense. At best, they are waiting to see if the data that has been available for many season has validity. At worst, they are ignorant and that ignorance shows in their roster decisions as well as their development of catchers in the minors. Other teams make it a priority on selecting catchers. In fact, several of the catchers that formerly appeared at the bottom of the lists are no longer catching regularly. Kurt Suzuki still has a regular job. Ben Lindbergh wrote weekly last year. He has done monthly reports this year. Below are a link to his recent report and quotes relevant to the Twins. May's catcher report from Baseball Prospectus http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23780 Thoughts from April's catcher report I am certain there will be discussion of not trusting metrics. Clearly the Twins don't trust this data. Glen Perkins might. The data has now several years behind it and catchers are very consistent in their rankings even after changing teams.
  24. jorgenswest
    Pinto needs to be better defensively. Regular play in AAA will help. I noticed he caught May's outstanding game. Pairing him with Deduno gave him little chance to be successful. You need to know where the ball was going in order to frame it well. It can mess with the mechanics of any catcher. Deduno's ERA with Pinto was actually slightly better than with Suzuki this year. I expected it would be much worse since Suzuki saw him out if the pen. Ryan Doumit is the Deduno whisperer though, helping him to an ERA of 2.85.
  25. jorgenswest
    I have been reading through some reports on Rosario from the time he made the switch. At that time, it was felt that he did not have the arm for RF, the range for CF or the bat for LF. His bat and arm would fit 2B. Since then, his bat has remained strong as he progressed from Elizabethton to New Britain. He can bring it to LF. I don't see how he would have improved his range for CF. He he still might be the best option for the a Twins in CF later this season, but the Twins really need Buxton long term.
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