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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Fangraphs WAR is FIP based. Home runs, strikeouts and walks matter. Nothing else matters. The difference between FIP and RA is far greater for the Twins than any other team. Can the difference be explained by horrific defense? Does Fangraphs rank of 20th truly represent the skill of the Twin starters? Is it possible that the Twins starters are much poorer than 20th and Fangraphs FIP based calculations do not represent the performance of their starters accurately?
  2. jorgenswest
    20th? Wow! I am astonished. I checked and it is accurate (at least for Fangraphs WAR). It is also astonishing that the Twins starters rank higher than the Giants, though the Giants ERA sits at 3.59. Fangraphs attempts to separate the pitching from the defense. If 20th is the true Twin rank, they must have a horrific defense that needs to be fixed first before any assessment of the pitching can be made. Fangraphs credits the Twins starters for 5.7 WAR. BR credits them for round 2.6. I had to add the individuals so there may be a rounding error and I couldn't see how Deduno starts were split from relief so I used his fangraph start value. A 2.6 WAR would rank 30th on Fangraphs list. How much is the defense contributing to runs scored against? Fangraphs suggests it might be significant. BR suggests the starting pitching has been pretty awful.
  3. jorgenswest
    It is an odd discussion. If one side questions Anderson, others read the person saying that Worley had no responsibility. On the other hand, when another questions the work ethic of a player, another reads it as the coach has no influence. Many major league pitchers walk a fine line of success. There is little room for dropped velocity or slight loss of command without significant drop in performance. Hopefully a coach can help each individual player walk that fine line of success. Poor performance from a previously successful pitcher lands on both pitcher and coach. No coach works well with every player. All coaches work well with some. The best coaches can work well with a diverse group of skills sets. It certainly is on the staff to evaluate talent. The Twins staff felt that the 26 year old Worley had less upside than a 32 year old Virgil Vasquez. That decision is on the shoulders of the staff and should have been greatly influenced by Anderson. Can the Twins easily replace Nolasco with a pitcher they believe will perform significantly better? If so, they should do so now. Can the Twins easily replace Anderson with a pitching coach they believe will work well with a larger number of pitchers? If so, they should do so now.
  4. jorgenswest
    It is exciting. Jason Parks spoke about his list on today's Effectively Wild podcast. Midseason lists need a little perspective. Players in the majors do not qualify so Taveras, Polanco, Betts... are not eligible. Recently drafted and recently signed international players are not eligible. The pool of players is smaller and a number 30 prospect midseason is not the same as a number 30 in the winter. If Berrios, Stewart and Meyer drop towards 50 in the winter it won't be because the opinion of the players has dropped. It will be because the pool of players is larger.
  5. jorgenswest
    I think you will need to wait a few years after they start to rebuild (roster young players and dump the decline phase). I am still waiting for them rebuild.
  6. jorgenswest
    The Twins can't afford to miss on any pitcher. Good luck Vance. I don't think you are the only one that the Twins management stopped believing in too soon. Why believe in a 26 year old with previous major league success when there are scores of 30 year olds that go about their business the Twin way?
  7. jorgenswest
    The Soriano situation might need to resolve before Willingham moves.
  8. jorgenswest
    The DBack trade will be one of several involving relievers. Returns for relievers are uninspiring. A parallel deal of Twin minor leaguers might be Kvasnicka and Gilbert. While uninspiring, they are valuable to the organization and affiliates and have some upside.
  9. jorgenswest
    It may help a little. While it won't change their value to winning games. It may change the perception of the value to their fan base. They need to sell any deal to their fan base. They want to generate some excitement and in turn bring in more fans to the game. In turn, maybe the GM gives up just a little bit more. Maybe it's enough to be willing to give up more for Suzuki than Pierzynski. For Suzuki, the Twins need to get the Orioles and Blue Jays in bidding war. The Dodgers also need a catcher, but I think they might pay more attention to the defensive part of the catching game. Congratulations to Kurt and Glen. You represent Minnesota well.
  10. jorgenswest
    I don't think Perkins can bring anything near a Span like return. His contract was actually better before the extension. Ages 33 and 34 are not kind to relievers. While there are all kinds of rumors about relievers, when was the last time a reliever was traded for a top prospect? Matt Capps? We need to find the GM that made that deal. Everyone would trade Perkins for an Alex Meyer type. I think the best deal would look more like Lewis Thorpe and Michael Tonkin.
  11. jorgenswest
    I don't doubt Ryan is trying to fix the team. It seems a waste of time to try to define rebuild. One strategy in rebuilding is going young. That isn't the strategy Ryan chose. He is signed low cost decline phase players and given them to a manager who gave them significant at bats and innings. They have failed in their attempt to rebuild with decline phase players. They have failed in any attempt to contend. It is time for a new direction.
  12. jorgenswest
    I can say it. You don't rebuild with a franchise record number of players in their 30s. You don't rebuild by signing veterans from the bargain bin. You don't rebuild with rosters that are among their oldest rosters since 1998. You don't hang onto a Willingham or Perkins at the trade deadline. You hand the ball to younger players and let them struggle and grow together. The last two years are failed attempts at trying to give the appearance of being competitive. 2011 was a surprise and might have been explained by injuries. 2012 could have been an attempt to retool. The rebuild should have started mid 2012. 1999-2000 was a rebuild. The Twins rebuilt in the early 80s.
  13. jorgenswest
    I look forward to the a Twins being in the position of having the top record midseason and making a big trade to put the over the top. They have a lot of work to do to get to the top first.
  14. jorgenswest
    Looking for a comp among Twin minor leaguers over the last decade, I think Garrett Jones represents the best upside. They were both 22 at high A. They both had power, strikeouts and lack of walks. Jones has the advantage of batting left handed. It took time and patience with Garrett Jones. It will take the same with Walker.
  15. jorgenswest
    The Yankees gamed the international signing system this year. With a limit of $2.2 million to spend, they poured over $13M at top signees - on the first day. In doing so they gave up the right to sign players to more than $300,000 over the next two years and must pay a 100% tax. This is in stark contrast to the Twins strategy. The Twins top signee is pitcher Huascar Ynoa, who they signed for $800,000. Is the Yankees strategy worth it? How easy is it to determine the best players to have signed at age 16? Should the Twins look at something similar? In order to help answer that question I went to look at the top signings of the 2007 and 2006 seasons. Players signed in those seasons have now had 7 or 8 years to develop. They needed to be put on 40 man rosters or exposed to the Rule 5 draft by 2011. They have used some of their options. This is a list from Baseball America of the top 20 signings in 2007. [TABLE] PLAYER, POS. ORGANIZATION AGE COUNTRY SIGNING BONUS Michael Almanzar, 3b Red Sox 16 DR $1.5 million Kelvin De Leon, of Yankees 16 DR $1.1 million Jharmidy DeJesus, ss Mariners 16 DR $1 million Julio Teheran, rhp Braves 16 Colombia $850,000 Gabriel Noriega, ss Mariners 16 Venezuela $800,000 Arodys Vizcaino, rhp Yankees 16 DR $800,000 Elio De La Rosa, 3b Yankees 16 DR $750,000 Jonathan Spraut (Galvez), ss Padres 16 DR $750,000 Wilmer Flores, ss Mets 16 Venezuela $700,000 Henry Pena, of Yankees 16 DR $600,000 Martin Perez. lhp Rangers 16 Venezuela $580,000 Wilson Suero, ss Rangers 16 DR $558,000 Jefry Marte, 3b Mets 16 DR $550,000 Eduardo Sosa, of Yankees 16 Venezuela $500,000 Ryde Rodriguez, of Cardinals 19 Cuba $460,000 Hitaniel Arias, of Brewers 16 DR $450,000 Efrain Nunez, of Mariners 16 DR $450,000 Cesar Puello, of Mets 16 DR $400,000 Angel Joseph, of Giants 16 DR $350,000 Kevin Moscatel, c Cardinals 16 Venezuela $350,000 [/TABLE] It would be great to have Julio Teheran. Martin Perez has started 34 games in the majors and has a pitch to contact profile. He is out with Tommy John surgey. Arodys Vizcaino has been traded twice and missed two seasons due to serious injury. He is now a reliever in the Cubs system. The Mets put Wilmer Flores and Cesar Puello on the 40 man roster in 2011. Flores may make it as a SS, but he may never hit. Puello is struggling mightily to hit as a corner OF in the PCL. Those are the success stories. They are the players that made it to the 40 man roster. Some of the rest are still playing ball, but they have become available in the Rule 5 draft. There were two players that I was not able to find any record of having played any baseball. One is Wilson Suero who probably really wasn’t Wilson Suero. The other was Angel Joseph. Go to Baseball Reference and do a search for Angel Joseph. You won’t find him either. They do lead you to another player. You probably noticed that there were no Twins on the list. Jeremy and Seth can correct me but I believe that Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana and Liam Hendriks were international signings in 2007. How about 2006? These players are at least 24 years old now. [TABLE] Player, Pos. Organization Country Signing Bonus Angel Villalona, 3b Giants DR $2.1 million Jesus Montero, c Yankees Venezuela $1.65 million Esmailyn Gonzalez, ss Nationals DR $1.4 million Carlos Truinfel, ss Mariners DR $1.3 million Young Il-Jung, rhp Angels South Korea $1 million Larry Suarez, rhp Cubs Venezuela $850,000 Francisco Pena, c Mets DR $750,000 Balbino Fuenmayor, 3b Blue Jays Venezuela $725,000 Mario Martinez, of Mariners Venezuela $600,000 Engel Beltre, of Red Sox DR $600,000 Oscar Tejada, ss Red Sox DR $525,000 Manuel Solis, 3b Rangers DR $525,000 [/TABLE] A few of these guys have played in the majors. Jesus Montero is looking for a position and trying to figure out how to hit major league pitching well enough to be a DH. Carlos Triunfel has played in the majors. He was DFA’d when he ran out of options this years and is now in the Dodger organization Francisco Pena has played a game in the majors. The Royals acquired him as a minor league free agent. Engel Beltre is on the 40 man roster with the Rangers and played a few games last year. He is currently on 60 day DL. A few other notes… Angel Villalona was arrested on suspicion of murder and lost two years due to visa restrictions. He is on the 40 for the Giants and playing AA. Esmailyn Gonzalez is really Carlos Alvarez and made it to rookie ball as a 27 year old in 2013. How about the Twins? Josmil Pinto was a 2006 signing. Any others make it? Two years of top signings and so far only Julio Teheran stands out. Were the Yankees correct in their strategy? Volume gives them a chance. It is hard to tell which 16 year old is going to be Julio Teheran so they threw their money at a lot of 16 year olds. Will they be lucky enough that some of their money landed on a Teheran? http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/international-affairs/2007/264683.html http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2006/262506.html Twins beat up Seattle last night, so on Thursday you can get a half price large or extra-large pizza from PapaJohns.com by using the promo code 'TWINSWIN'.
  16. jorgenswest
    A qualifying offer will be around 15 million. The Twins don't have anyone on an expiring contract that will get near that salary for 2015. They won't be making qualifying offers.
  17. jorgenswest
  18. jorgenswest
    Nothing stopped the 29 other clubs from doing the same thing. In fact if a few other clubs joined the Yankees it wouldn't work. If it works, it works because of the volume. Three of four teams going way over and they can't achieve the volume. The Yankees were allowed to do this because the other 29 teams let them. It isn't cheating. The Yankees did not hide their strategy. It was well reported in the offseason. Time will tell if their strategy works in spending 27 million or so and giving up the next two years. The Twins spent about that much on Phil Hughes and more on Ricky Nolasco over three years. Is it a better strategy to spend the money on a bunch of 16 year olds?
  19. jorgenswest
    His numbers this season should be looked at as a whole. Breaking a small sample into splits has no value and at this sample. Measures like OPS have little meaning for the future. At this sample, you might look at his basic rate numbers. His walk rate of 4.3% is very low and low relative to his career rate. His strikeout rate of 24.3% is about his career rate. Fly ball rate is up about 7% to 49.4% and correspondingly ground ball rate is down to 27.2%. Those numbers were about equal at 39% in 2013. The fly ball/ground ball rates look more like Josh Willingham's profile. The walk rate suggests he might be more aggressive. That his backed up by his increased swing rate on pitches in the strike zone. As the season progresses, he will not stay successful at that walk rate. He will begin to see fewer pitches in the strike zone and need to adjust. The Twins need to play him enough this year to determine if he can be useful in a bench or platoon role. A Randy Bush type career is possible.
  20. jorgenswest
    If interested in more kMcD, you can listen to Kiley McDaniel on today's Effectively Wild podcast from Baseball Prospectus.
  21. jorgenswest
    I am curious in how you are so certain that Escobar must be a utility player and Santana a CF. They have nearly identical OPS at high A at 21. Escobar advanced to AA earlier at 21 and played more AAA while Santana played a full season of AA. Combined they are not significantly different. They both have been young for their leagues. They both have poor K/BB ratios. Santana has stolen more bases while Escobar was consistently ranked the best defensive infielder in the a White Sox system. They both profile as utility players, but I see nothing and that would set Santana apart. If Escobar is truly the better defensive shortstop, he can probably outlast any offensive struggles that are certain to occur with any player with poor k/bb rates. Santana's speed will help him when he isn't hitting well.
  22. jorgenswest
    Reimold's career OPS+ is a little better than Parmelee's. He is a corner OF. He is 4 years older at 30. Would you replace him on the roster for Parmelee? I wouldn't. I think you want some upside of age left on those former prospects. Arrieta was 27 when the Cubs traded Feldman for him.
  23. jorgenswest
    The return for Willingham is not going to excite the fan base. It is very rare for good prospects to get traded and when they are traded it will be for starting pitching, shortstops, centerfielders or catchers. It is a waste to trade him for a guy like Alex Presley who will be out of options in 2015. Those kinds of players will be available as minor league free agents in the winter. The kind of player that might help is a young player sitting in A-Ball that has yet to perform well but has the tools. They could also look for a player in AA and AAA that is struggling but has always been very young for his league like Escobar.
  24. jorgenswest
    51-30 in the second half would give them a shot at the division. They probably need to do a little better than that to get a wild card. It would also take a performance that is among the best in baseball in the second half to put up a 51-30. They need to begin a great streak of play starting today similar to the great stretches of the 1991 or 2006 Twins. It helped to have Santana, Liriano and Radke in 2006 and Morris, Erickson and Tapani in 1991. Do these Twins have what it takes?
  25. jorgenswest
    The best trade partner for the Royals finds them a 3B that hits right handed pitching. Danny Valencia has a 790 OPS against lefties this year following a season where his OPS was 1031 against lefties. Valencia can't hit right handed pitching, but he is better against lefties than Plouffe. Plouffe doesn't seem like a good fit as the platoon half against right handed pitching. If they have given up on Moustakas, they might look for a cheaper solution like Eric Chavez and use him in a platoon with Valencia. Willingham? They have a great left fielder. Willingham has said he isn't comfortable in RF. The Twins signed him hoping to play him there and it lasted less than a week in spring training. Unfortunately, he doesn't solve their RF problems. He would be a better bat off the bench than Ibanez, but they will be able to find a RF.
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