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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Which category is the most telling for the future? I would guess strikeouts followed by walks.
  2. jorgenswest
    It will take the best second half record in baseball to get them to the playoffs. If they start looking like the best team in baseball over the next 20 games and put up a 16-4 type record then go for it and buy at the deadline. If the best they can do is show glimpses of a team that might get to .500, sell off the decline phase assets for the best return offered.
  3. jorgenswest
    They need to come up with a 51-31 finish to have a reasonable expectation of the playoffs. To get there they will need to go 9-5 in the next 14 and follow it up with another 9-5 in the next 14 and follow that up with three more 9-5s. Mix five of those with a 6-6 in 12 games and they have a reasonable shot at the play in game. The very best teams in the second half will perform at that level. Is it reasonable to expect the Twins will be among the very best teams in the second half?
  4. jorgenswest
    By signing Suzuki, the Twins simply extend and accept being mediocre. Why extend any decline phase player unless they are among the top third of their position? They need to allow space for the decline. Trade Suzuki. Give Pinto 2 months. Assess in the winter. If they can't sign Martin and are convinced Pinto is a DH, they don't have to choose someone else from the list. They can make a trade.
  5. jorgenswest
    Suzuki currently ranks 21st among all catchers according to Fangraphs WAR. They do not include pitch framing data in their calculations. The Twins overall rank 18th at catcher with a boost from Pinto's bat that most teams don't get in a second catcher. Suzuki ranks 21st while having a career season. Their pitching ERA ranks 28th in spite of Suzuki's game calling skills. That is with the benefit of Target Field (Rangers 29th, Rockies 30th). If they extend Suzuki it is guaranteed that the Twins will not look for another solution either by free agent, Pinto or trade. In 2/3 the games, Russell Martin has twice the WAR ranking 9th. The separation would even be greater if his pitch framing data were included. If the Twins must go after a veteran catcher, isn't Martin the better choice?
  6. jorgenswest
    I don't disagree, but Suzuki isn't the problem. He has caught every Nolasco pitch this year. A new catcher may offer a change of pace. The solution is within Nolasco. He needs to find and rely on his slider and other off speed offerings. That is where he should focusing his work in the bullpen.
  7. jorgenswest
    He Gone!
  8. jorgenswest
    Another poor month for Nolasco. Both Ryan and Gardenhire talked about Nolasco's trouble with the fastball today. They have been focusing on the fastball in bullpens. He is throwing the 4 seam fastball about 33% more often than he did with the Dodgers. When they signed him they must have known that he has never had an effective fastball. His fastball has had a negative pitch value in every season except 2008. If their plan was to turn him into a pitcher that gets ahead in the count with early fastballs, it has been a disastrous plan. I know that is the Twins way. It isn't Nolasco's way. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/9/3/4676078/the-reemergence-of-ricky-nolasco I don't want to turn this into a conversation about Suzuki, but Parker wrote about his frequency in using the fastball last year. Seems like the perfect catcher for Anderson. I am sure if the pitch sequence plan from Anderson was to pitch backwards, Suzuki would be more than capable in calling that sequence. He isn't the problem. Nolasco needs to go to the pen and work on what he previously did well. He needs to regain the dominance of his slider, slow curve and other off speed pitches. That is the only path to regain his effectiveness. He will never be (and never has been) an effective pitcher with the fastball.
  9. jorgenswest
    You don't rebuild with one of their oldest rosters in years and a franchise record number of players in their 30s so it must be option 1.
  10. jorgenswest
    Ozzie Guillen would provide the most entertaining post game press conferences. I wouldn't turn off the game until I heard what he had to say.
  11. jorgenswest
    With Hughes in the mound, Florimon was in the game to field one ground ball. Gibson is the opposite extreme among the Twins starters. His ground ball rate is 56% compared to 36% for Hughes. If Gardenhire thought through the line ups this weekend shouldn't this have been the game to start Polanco with his poor defensive reputation? Wouldn't you want the best possible infield for Gibson? Perhaps Florimon will start tomorrow also.
  12. jorgenswest
    If Polanco were to start it would be with Hughes and his fly ball tendency.
  13. jorgenswest
    My hope is that the Twins win 85 games this year and are part of the conversation until the end. Short of 85 wins, I hope they rebuild. I hope for a roster similar to 82-83 or 99-00. Suzuki would not be the catcher on the roster. Gardenhire would not be the manager. So my plan for Suzuki would be to continue to roll with him and assess in a month. If they are on pace for at least 85 wins, keep it going. If not, sell off decline phase players for the best deal offered. Pinto would catch the remainder of the year. Vargas would DH. Rosario would be in LF. May and Meyer (assuming health) would be in the rotation. Achter, Tonkin and Oliveras would be in the pen.
  14. jorgenswest
    For those of you that want to resign Suzuki, what level of performance do you expect? Suzuki is having his best year in several years. He ranks 19th in WAR among catchers (fangraphs). His WAR is fueled by a high batting average (and hence OBP). His BABIP is more than 50 points higher than his career rate. BABIPs for the last four years are 245, 244, 269, 245 and this year 325. As for his defense we know that he continues to rank among the bottom in throwing and framing. We know that pitchers on both Washington and Oakland performed better with the other catchers in 2012-2013 than they did with Suzuki. Since he has done almost all of the catching (with the exception of Deduno) that is a comparison that can't be made. The performance of Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey and Correia might be compared to previous performance. The Twins have three options. I hope they sell. If they don't sell, I hope they let him become a free agent. The worst thing they can do is buy high expecting that he will maintain his on base skills. They will end up committed to a catcher that should be expected to perform no better than his aggregate numbers over the last 3-5 years which would be something like 245/305/365.
  15. jorgenswest
    Suzuki is not going to perform at this level the next two years. Sign him for two years and his trade value takes a nose dive. Sell high. Don't buy high.
  16. jorgenswest
    I asked about a Tabata earlier and the board helped me with the following. Tabata has a lot of money left on his deal. Tabata may not really be 25 but may be 5 years older. Tabata is out of options. The only skill Tabata has shown is getting on base. on the other hand... Hicks has several year of team control. Hicks is really 24 Hicks has options. The only batting skill Hicks has shown is getting on base.
  17. jorgenswest
    Did they use this years option when they sent him to A-Ball in the spring?
  18. jorgenswest
    I think everyone would agree that a 1 year extension at 4 million is a good deal for the Twins. What would motivate Suzuki to take his deal and give up his last chance at getting overpaid on a multiyear contract? Oakland passed on his 8.25 million option for 2014. If I am Suzuki, I am looking for at least 2 years and 16 million to give up my free agent rights.
  19. jorgenswest
    The mistake in planning came two weeks ago when they should have called up Romero (or Bernier) instead of Florimon in Pelfrey's spot. After that, let Deduno have one more start (no need to spend a 40 on Pino) and use the day off to slot May in. Now that they have missed that opportunity, they truly need to assess whether Plouffe will be back on Monday. If not, they still need Romero (or Bernier). They can add him and release Guerrier or Deduno. For today, if Escobar or Florimon go down (or even if they pinch hit for Florimon) who goes to 3B? Mauer? Willingham? He played there in A-Ball.
  20. jorgenswest
    It would be a mistake to believe Suzuki will perform well in 2015-2016. Extending him multiyear based on 1/2 a season would be foolish. They need to look at 3-5 years to project the next few years. No one would project 2015-2016 based on 1/2 of 2014. They need to expect batting averages below .250 with little power. They need to expect more difficulty throwing out runners and framing pitches. He needs to be signed one year at a time so that they can get out of the contract without long term implications. That has to happen in the winter. They aren't going to get him on a one year deal in season.
  21. jorgenswest
    May and Meyer are too old to be a future. They need to be in the present game soon.
  22. jorgenswest
    Trevor May is on the old side for a future player. He will turn 25 later this season. I think he would be the oldest player on the US team. On the world team, Kennys Vargas is old also. Only Daniel Alvarez is older and he recently came to the US from Cuba. He has been in the minors less than a year. The best players are in the majors at 24. They aren't hoping for a spot in the future's game.
  23. jorgenswest
    Burdi is signed and will start in Cedar Rapids. The Midwest League is a good starting point and will not hold him back. It is up to Burdi. He can advance quickly. The most recent fast moving college relievers started at a similar level. I look forward to reading the reports from the Knuckleballs blog and possibly Seth. Cedar Rapids folks better get out to the ballpark soon. He may not be there long.
  24. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the contract info. It seems like a no brainer to offer a top prospect a long term deal to buy out arbitration years. It isn't always so team friendly. On the other hand, risking 4 and 4.5 million isn't going to kill a teams chances. Maybe the Pirates want to exchange bad contracts. Can they resurrect Pelfrey next year? The Twins must owe him somewhere around 8.25 million compared to the 10.34 million owed Tabata.
  25. jorgenswest
    Jose Tabata has been out righted. He can elect free agency. Should the Twins be interested? He has played a lot of centerfield in the minors. There wasn't an opportunity to play CF with Pirates. He would be below average there but so are Fuld and Hicks. His career OPS+ is 100 helped mostly by his OBP.
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