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Download attachment: Suzuki_Kurt_Face_US_720.jpg Mike Berardino reported this weekend that Terry Ryan expected Kurt Suzuki to start this year for the Minnesota Twins at catcher. At the time of the signing, it appeared that Suzuki was signed to give the Twins a veteran backup. On this site, there were certainly questions about his defense and concern about the workload he carried early in his career. At the time, the best available options other than Suzuki were John Buck or retaining Doumit. While Suzuki has been a poor pitch framer, Doumit and Buck are at the bottom. Does it matter that Suzuki is a poor at framing pitches? Perhaps he makes up for it in working with pitchers and pitch selection. If a catcher has an impact on pitcher performance, how might it show up in the stats? FIP uses the defense independent stats of strikeouts, walks and home runs. I am not sure how much a catcher might impact home runs, but if he impacts anything it will be strikeouts and walks. Suzuki's has worked for two clubs in each of the last two years. Add 2011 and there is a sample of over 12000 batters faced. How does he compare to the 12 other catchers who caught for Oakland or Washington in the last three years? [TABLE=width: 576] Year Team Suzuki Others Suzuki Others Suzuki Others [/TD] k/bb k/bb K% K% BB% BB% BF 2013 OAK 1.86 2.84 17.06% 19.66% 9.19% 6.91% 381 2013 WSN 2.78 3.31 19.68% 21.15% 7.08% 6.38% 2795 2012 WSN 2.6 2.69 20.88% 21.80% 8.02% 8.13% 1547 2012 OAK 2.15 2.75 17.54% 19.32% 8.16% 7.04% 2720 2011 OAK 2.13 2.67 18.46% 20.18% 8.67% 7.51% 4811 [TD]3yr TOT 2.31 2.84 18.79% 20.45% 8.13% 7.20% 12254 [/TABLE] Over the last three years, the other 12 catchers have a 23% better strikeout walk ratio, a strikeout rate that is 9% better and a walk rate that is 11% lower. Every year over the last three and on every team, pitchers who happen to be throwing to Suzuki strike out fewer batters and walk more batters. Small sample size? It is over 12000 batters. Maybe he has had teammates who are very good catchers? It was 12 different guys on two different teams. The Twins needed a backup catcher. The free agent and trade market for catchers dried up quickly and only the catchers with poor framing numbers remained. Suzuki appears to be the best of what was left. Signing a veteran catcher to start in 40-50 games seemed a good move. Before spring training, Ryan has said he expects him to start. It seems the plan all along was to seek a starter. If that is the case, is Suzuki the right guy? Click here to view the article

Fangraphs Sunday Notes "The Minnesota Twins have learned to love the shift. According to Baseball Info Solutions, Ron Gardenhire‘s club went into the All-Star break having shifted on 251 balls in play, 13th-most in baseball. Last year they shifted just 84 times on balls in play, sixth-fewest in baseball..." http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-molitor-on-shifts-chen-down-the-middle-rusty-kuntz-more

The Mariners know the value of a prospect. If they trade a younger prospect not on the 40, they also have to DFA someone like Pryor. They end up losing two guys. While I don't agree with all of Ryan's move, I do trust him to try to get a better prospect by offering to pick up a contract. That might work when the value of the contract is 10 million plus or has multiple years. The commitment to Morales was minimal and even a maxed out team like the Mariners can take him on.

I would more than settle for Cervelli. I don't think that will be the offer. I think it will be a guy on the fringe of the 40 man roster. Austin Romine, Preston Claiborne or maybe Zoilo Almonte. If they can't get a Willingham cheap, they will simply pursue a better player. MLBTR mentions Byrd and Rios.

That's too bad. A lot of lost content. I think content trumps looks and ease of use, but probably not the revenue. Doesn't matter for those who want to banter endlessly in the forums though. Perhaps that is where you need to focus and get the most ad revenue.

Download attachment: Sano_Miguel_Landscape.jpg The Yankees gamed the international signing system this year. With a limit of $2.2 million to spend, they poured over $13M at top signees - on the first day. In doing so they gave up the right to sign players to more than $300,000 over the next two years and must pay a 100% tax. This is in stark contrast to the Twins strategy. The Twins top signee is pitcher Huascar Ynoa, who they signed for $800,000. Is the Yankees strategy worth it? How easy is it to determine the best players to have signed at age 16? Should the Twins look at something similar? In order to help answer that question I went to look at the top signings of the 2007 and 2006 seasons. Players signed in those seasons have now had 7 or 8 years to develop. They needed to be put on 40 man rosters or exposed to the Rule 5 draft by 2011. They have used some of their options. This is a list from Baseball America of the top 20 signings in 2007. [TABLE] PLAYER, POS. ORGANIZATION AGE COUNTRY SIGNING BONUS Michael Almanzar, 3b Red Sox 16 DR $1.5 million Kelvin De Leon, of Yankees 16 DR $1.1 million Jharmidy DeJesus, ss Mariners 16 DR $1 million Julio Teheran, rhp Braves 16 Colombia $850,000 Gabriel Noriega, ss Mariners 16 Venezuela $800,000 Arodys Vizcaino, rhp Yankees 16 DR $800,000 Elio De La Rosa, 3b Yankees 16 DR $750,000 Jonathan Spraut (Galvez), ss Padres 16 DR $750,000 Wilmer Flores, ss Mets 16 Venezuela $700,000 Henry Pena, of Yankees 16 DR $600,000 Martin Perez. lhp Rangers 16 Venezuela $580,000 Wilson Suero, ss Rangers 16 DR $558,000 Jefry Marte, 3b Mets 16 DR $550,000 Eduardo Sosa, of Yankees 16 Venezuela $500,000 Ryde Rodriguez, of Cardinals 19 Cuba $460,000 Hitaniel Arias, of Brewers 16 DR $450,000 Efrain Nunez, of Mariners 16 DR $450,000 Cesar Puello, of Mets 16 DR $400,000 Angel Joseph, of Giants 16 DR $350,000 Kevin Moscatel, c Cardinals 16 Venezuela $350,000 [/TABLE] It would be great to have Julio Teheran.Martin Perez has started 34 games in the majors and has a pitch to contact profile. He is out with Tommy John surgey.Arodys Vizcaino has been traded twice and missed two seasons due to serious injury. He is now a reliever in the Cubs system.The Mets put Wilmer Flores and Cesar Puello on the 40 man roster in 2011. Flores may make it as a SS, but he may never hit. Puello is struggling mightily to hit as a corner OF in the PCL. Those are the success stories. They are the players that made it to the 40 man roster. Some of the rest are still playing ball, but they have become available in the Rule 5 draft. There were two players that I was not able to find any record of having played any baseball. One is Wilson Suero who probably really wasn’t Wilson Suero. The other was Angel Joseph. Go to Baseball Reference and do a search for Angel Joseph. You won’t find him either. They do lead you to another player. You probably noticed that there were no Twins on the list. Jeremy and Seth can correct me but I believe that Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana and Liam Hendriks were international signings in 2007. How about 2006? These players are at least 24 years old now. [TABLE] Player, Pos. Organization Country Signing Bonus Angel Villalona, 3b Giants DR $2.1 million Jesus Montero, c Yankees Venezuela $1.65 million Esmailyn Gonzalez, ss Nationals DR $1.4 million Carlos Truinfel, ss Mariners DR $1.3 million Young Il-Jung, rhp Angels South Korea $1 million Larry Suarez, rhp Cubs Venezuela $850,000 Francisco Pena, c Mets DR $750,000 Balbino Fuenmayor, 3b Blue Jays Venezuela $725,000 Mario Martinez, of Mariners Venezuela $600,000 Engel Beltre, of Red Sox DR $600,000 Oscar Tejada, ss Red Sox DR $525,000 Manuel Solis, 3b Rangers DR $525,000 [/TABLE] A few of these guys have played in the majors. Jesus Montero is looking for a position and trying to figure out how to hit major league pitching well enough to be a DH.Carlos Triunfel has played in the majors. He was DFA’d when he ran out of options this years and is now in the Dodger organizationFrancisco Pena has played a game in the majors. The Royals acquired him as a minor league free agent.Engel Beltre is on the 40 man roster with the Rangers and played a few games last year. He is currently on 60 day DL.A few other notes… Angel Villalona was arrested on suspicion of murder and lost two years due to visa restrictions. He is on the 40 for the Giants and playing AA.Esmailyn Gonzalez is really Carlos Alvarez and made it to rookie ball as a 27 year old in 2013. How about the Twins? Josmil Pinto was a 2006 signing. Any others make it? Two years of top signings and so far only Julio Teheran stands out. Were the Yankees correct in their strategy? Volume gives them a chance. It is hard to tell which 16 year old is going to be Julio Teheran so they threw their money at a lot of 16 year olds. Will they be lucky enough that some of their money landed on a Teheran? http://www.baseballa...007/264683.html http://www.baseballa...006/262506.html [/hr]Twins beat up Seattle last night, so on Thursday you can get a half price large or extra-large pizza from PapaJohns.com by using the promo code 'TWINSWIN'. Click here to view the article

I do appreciate they effort. I wonder it there is still things to work out. I chose to put my blog articles here and it would be nice if they remained. Maybe no one else would go back and look, but I look to see how my thoughts may have changed. One thing that distinguishes for me whether it is a forum entry or a bog entry is whether I would go back and look at it. John always talks about writing stuff he would want to read. I looked at the two July blog entries I wrote in July. The first is unreadable due to missing tables. The second is missing with the exception of the comments. Perhaps this isn't the kind of thing you want to read after weeks of hard work and I do appreciate the effort it must take to manage a site.

Reading Just a Bit Outside yet? Rob Neyer's new project. good article from BP today. Seth often reminds us that a prospect's age isn't everything. Jason Parks on how he overlooked a prospect due to age. http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/steven-matz-lefthander-new-york-mets-prospects-scouting-injury-age-072614

If the other teams don't value Suzuki enough to offer a moderate return, it should also be a sign that he won't be valued at the level of Ruiz or Salty in the market this winter.

Any leaked news that the Twins are looking to keep or even extend Suzuki might give a little more leverage.

I guess I prefer the lottery ticket. Pryor will either get it together and be a good reliever or more likely he won't be in the majors. I don't think he is a typical AAAA guy.

You are probably correct about Willingham, but they really need to focus on anyone who won't make it through waivers.

While I think that makes sense for a player like David Price, a two or three year Suzuki contract gives him less value. Two of the better fits would only want Suzuki until the end of the year due to injuries. Give him an extension and you may eliminate the two best trade partners.

They might get to the bottom of the list after all. With a Hughes removed from the game, the always healthy Correia is the last man standing from the starting 5.

The problem with signing the trio is that they don't look elsewhere. Even after signing Kubel, they could have seen his struggle in the spring and looked for a younger player like JD Martinez. They could have given the time in spring to minor league free agents with the upside of age. They could have replaced Tonkin with AJ Achter. Wouldn't it be better to use those low leverage situations to give experience to a younger player? Signing decline phase veterans continues the cycle of mediocrity.

Beyond the Box Score has their thoughts on trading Suzuki. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/7/23/5925115/mlb-trade-deadline-the-minnesota-twins-kurt-suzuki

Three choices on Suzuki - Offer him a deal he knows he can't get in the winter. Saltalamacchia received 21 million over 3 years. It would need to be in that neighborhood. - Keep him and compete to sign him on a two year deal. - Trade him and compete to sign him in the winter. I think the prudent option is to trade.

The teams would certainly have access to any of those details and splits by park. Baseball Prospectus or Baseball Savant may have that detail. I am interested in watching how teams make roster and lineup decisions based on the pitch level data and soon batted ball fielding level data. Teams are in very different places right now with their decisions based on shifting and valuing defense from a catcher. The new data related to fielding should cause further variation in team decision making.

FIP uses HR rate which doesn't stabilize until 1320 BF for an individual. Strike out and walk rates much earlier. For individuals, xFIP is better because it doesn't use HR rate. On the team level, the sample gets large enough that significant differences shouldn't be assigned to chance. Framing data also gets a large sample size since the event is a pitch rather than a plate appearance or inning. Outsiders are getting to see more of what teams have seen for several years. This year BP's data adjusts for count, pitch type, umpire... I don't know how much teams use the data to influence roster decisions. I do know that the catchers previously on the bottom of the list are no longer starting or have moved positions. There are teams that believe this skill has a real impact on the game. For the Twins sake, I hope they are wrong.

The difference between the Twins FIP and ERA is about 1/2 a run. At the team level, that isn't just bad luck as it sometimes attributed to an individual. It is poor defense. For a team with a good defense like the Royals, it goes the other way and the ERA is lower than the FIP. It is so easy to argue the details of the metrics for any individual that it sometimes gets lost that a bad defense leads to extra runs given up. Any effect pitch framing has on runs given up is also independent of defense. Pitch framing will impact strike outs and walks and they are key components of FIP. Poor framing would actually increase the FIP and ERA while poor defense only increases ERA. It might be easy to say that you don't believe in the metric. Is it possible to say you don't believe in defense?

A year from now the Twins may be leading the AL Central in IP and PA for players 25 and younger. May, Meyer and Tonkin could be on the team from opening day. Duffy and Gilmartin may make an appearance by this time next year. Offensively, Arcia and Santana may be starters. Sano and Rosario may arrive early in the season. Hicks figures something out. Buxton or Vargas may be up just after the super two deadline. Ortiz might find a role as the fourth OF. I look forward to when the Twins system drops in the prospect ranking as a result of a glut of young players promoted to the major leagues. That has to happen in the next year.

Starting rotation solved. Let the bullpen do it.

Innings pitched for players 25 and younger in the AL Central 309.2 White Sox 295.2 Tigers 288.0 Royals 233.1 Indians 15.1 Twins The Twins rank 30th. The Marlins (473), Cardinals (400.2) and Mariners (328.1) are the top 3.

Jason Marquis for Zach Walters?

The trade deadline is as much about supply as it is about WAR. Butera had some value that Correia can not bring. He had an option so the Dodgers did not have to make a 25 man roster decision. He is a good defensive catcher and that is a skill that is not easy to find at the replacement level. Eric Fryer is closer to a replacement level catcher with middling defense and poor bat. Drew's positional scarcity, defense and experience might give him more trade value than the Twins will find in a number 5 starter. Any team trading for Correia will need to clear a 40 man spot. The best the Twins can get get might be that player near the bottom of the 40. In that case, do you take the player or keep Correia?