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It is the back and forth of adjustments entering the league. He will adjust back some. Over the last two years his OPS+ is 103. He plays good defense at 2B. The Twins can probably expect that level of performance over the next three years. Certainly worthy of a starting role at 2B on many teams. Probably not worthy of extending a contract into his decline. It was wise for the Twins not to offer an extension when he was so not early in the year.

It wasn't too early for the Twins. They spent a chunk of that 2015 free agent money today on Suzuki.

The Twins hit the deadline with two additions to the 2015 team. In an environment where few good prospects were traded, the Twins extend Suzuki on an affordable deal. I don't doubt he is more valuable to the 2015 team than anything they were offered. Two years at 6 million seems to be the perfect point of risk on the Twins part and reward on Suzuki's part. There won't be a better risk for that money on the market in the winter. Milone is a good addition who Suzuki knows well. Those two additions for 2015 make the deadline day a win for the Twins.

The Twins can afford the 2/12. He replaces Willingham on the books. The Twins have endured two poor seasons from Willingham. They can't do that with Suzuki. It is a good deal as long as the Twins are willing to cut ties if he returns to his 2012/2013 form. With his near league bottom OPS, he needs to hit .280 to have any offensive value. When he stops approaching that level, they need to move on. The memory of one good season shouldn't stop them. It shouldn't have stopped them from dumping Willingham on the Orioles.

He isn't going to hit start hitting .180. He may start hitting .250. If you mix that with an ISO that ranks 147th of 156 qualified batters you get a poor offensive player.

Why shouldn't Nolasco's situation be good with the Twins? He is in a home park that suppresses home runs to left handed hitters. He has thrown every pitch to a veteran catcher that Perkins and Hughes love.

Kurt Suzuki is 16th among catchers in fWAR. That sounds good except... 1) Suzuki has a lot more playing time than many other catchers to add to the total. On a per plate appearance level, he would rank lower. 2) Suzuki is having an outlier season and should be expected to regress to his norm and decline due to age. 3) The fWAR does not factor in his poor framing numbers. Is it surprising teams don't want to offer a good prospect to buy his next two months? The Twins are thinking about buying his next two or three years.

The Twins inability to get a good return should be a huge sign that Suzuki doesn't carry the value he demands in a contract. Will the Twins continue their cycle of mediocrity by signing Suzuki to a multiyear contract? You know they are going to endure at least two consecutive bad years with him in the role. They won't seek other options with a commitment to Suzuki.

Phil Hughes has only had Pinto catch two of his starts. In those starts, he has a better strike out rate, walk rate and ERA than he has had in his starts with Suzuki. Suzuki may not be the only catcher he can pitch to successfully.

Since I can't figure out how to do tables any more, here is a link to one from Fangraphs comparing different rate stats among Milone, Hughes, Nolasco, Correia and Worley.

Somehow Milone has been successful in spite of the metrics that point to a FIP and xFIP higher than his ERA. He throws high 80s. His best pitches are the change up and cutter. His fastball is about as poor as Nolasco's. I was curious is he is another Correia or Worley. He does have some swing and miss. His rate over the last three years is 8.4%. Hughes is 8.6%. Nolasco is 9.3%. Worley is 5.0% and Correia is 5.6%. Is he another pitch backwards type pitcher? Will the Twins want him to establish the fastball to batters first?

They need to stop adding decline phase players to multiyear contracts. No contracts into the age 32 season unless the player is elite. They don't need a good player to decline to mediocre at the end of the contract at the same time the younger players are taking a step forward. Span is a perfect example of a player to avoid. Sign him to a three year contract and expect one good year and two other below average years due to injury or decline. Once they have a foundation, signing guys like Span to help push them from 85 towards 90 makes more sense. The only thing it does for the Twins now is push them higher into the 70s but in the future it drags them down.

I should have been more clear. I hadn't thought that would be the conclusion. I thought they should have let him go last year so the would seek a different solution. Do the Orioles sign Nelson Cruz if they have Willingham? Who do the a Twins find in the winter to replace him?

They should have let the Orioles take his contract last year.

One of the players this site has discussed trading is Brian Duensing. The thought is other teams might look to him as a left-handed LOOGY. His line this year: 5.06 ERA, 41g, 32 innings, 29k, 14bb (over his career left handed hitters have a .580 OPS) Why trade him? Brian is 30. He will be eligible for arbitration next year. He would likely be non-tendered. Caleb Thielbar appears to be the better option, with Pedro Hernandez providing depth.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Why keep him? He certainly isn’t at peak value now and has never been tried exclusively as a LOOGY. Perhaps he will find the type of success Craig Breslow found after leaving the Twins. Which teams might fit? Boston lost Miller but they have Breslow. The Indians are rumored to be looking for a lefty. The Reds are reportedly seeking a lefty. What is the value of a LOOGY at the trade deadline? I found 5 trades (and a waiver claim) over the last 3 summers involving a left-handed reliever as the primary target. I am not sure Duensing is a great match as all others had ERAs under 4. When looking at the ability to get left-handed hitters, he might be a match. Brain Fuentes for (PTBNL) Loek Van Mil- 25y.o., AA, 6.37 ERA Javier Lopez for John Bowker and Joe Martinez – both 27 year old AAAA players Will Ohmann for Rick Vandenhurk- 25y.o., AAA starter, 4.68 ERA Craig Breslow for Matt Albers(29) and Scot Posednik(36) – major leaguers JC Romero for Carlos Rojas – 28, AA, utility infielder Jose Mijares -waived by Royals and picked up by Giants. In these trades there were no high-potential players sent back to the team dealing the LOOGY. Some were already replacement AAAA players. Van Mil and Vandenhurk were 25 years old. Vandenhurk had started 11 games for the Marlins the previous season. None of "prospects" appeared on his team's Top Ten lists, though Vandenhurk had pitched in the Futures game three years earlier. Best Terry Ryan LOOGY trade The Twins traded JC Romero for Alexi Casilla in 2005. The return of Casilla is far better than anything in the last three years. Download attachment: Brian Duensing.jpg How will the Twins replace Duensing? It seems that Thielbar already has replaced Duensing. Hernandez is six years younger and seems better suited to relief. Bottom Line When looking at comps, we can expect virtually nothing in return for Duensing. He certainly would not merit a sleeper prospect. Anything the Twins are able to get in return would be a bonus. An Alexi Casilla A-Ball type prospect would be an outright steal. Click here to view the article

Did Willingham hurt his knee on that play in the ninth?

I think Ryan said the opposite on Inside Twins last Sunday. He talked about how he had to approach the other teams in his position as a seller. It could be that the Twins don't use the press as much to plant trade rumors and we only hear rumors from the other perspective.

Download attachment: Doumit_Ryan_600_321.jpg "I don’t say this about many decisions, but starting Doumit at catcher might be a fireable offense. In 60 games at catcher for Pittsburgh in 2011, his framing cost the Pirates 20 runs. In 59 games for Minnesota in 2012, his framing cost the Twins 21 runs. All told, his framing has subtracted 98 runs over the past five seasons, on top of the damage from the other things he does poorly behind the plate, which wipes out his offensive value." - Ben Lindbergh, Baseball Prospectus It has been difficult on this site to state concerns about Ryan Doumit and the Twins extending him. In a debate last week, I was told 28-29 teams would love to have Doumit and he was more valuable than ever. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Let's look at two teams attempt to fill out a bench. Last fall the Twins and Rays were both seeking catching help. The Rays signed Jose Molina and the Twins signed Doumit. The Rays signed Molina for 1.5 million and picked up his option for 2013 at 1.5 (also reported 1.8) million. The Twins have invested 10 million in Doumit over three years. For several years catching performance has been evaluated using pitch f/x. The results seem to be reliable as the catchers who perform at the top or bottom of the list remain relatively stable. This information and study by Mike Fast was available to both teams. Aaron Gleeman referenced it at the time of the Doumit signing. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093 Molina was the best catcher at saving runs through framing pitches over a 5 year period. Doumit was at the bottom of the list. They were at the extremes both in total and average per 120 games. How did it work out for both clubs? http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/18896 If the metric is accurate, Molina saved his team 50 runs in 80 games. Doumit cost the Twins 21 runs in 59 games. Molina's value is all defense but those 50 runs saved represent 5 wins. Doumits -21 represents a loss of 2 wins and completely wipes out his contribution to the team as a hitter. Molina and Doumit took there familiar positions at the top and bottom of the list. A result that could have been easily projected. 28-29 teams would love to have Doumit? Must be everyone except the Rays. It couldn't be more clear that the Twins evaluation differs greatly from the Rays. One other quote from the first article about the Twins management and pitch f/x "...Ryan Doumit, the patron saint of poor receivers. Except that Doumit hasn’t exactly been blacklisted behind the plate: in fact, he caught more innings for Minnesota in 2012 than he did as a Pirate the season before. Well, okay, you might say, but that was the Twins, the one team you could almost persuade yourself hasn’t heard about PITCHf/x yet. (“Wait, you mean all this time all of our pitchers were throwing really slowly?”) I am assuming you stopped reading this a long time ago if you join the Twins management in skepticism about pitch f/x. If not, what should the Twins do about Doumit? Doumit's only value as a catcher is on someone's fantasy baseball team. In that realm, Molina isn't even an afterthought. Doumit does have value. He can platoon at DH and pinch hit. While I question whether that role merits an extension, the real concern is the Twins management understanding of the impact of defense on wins. The Twins should not enter the season with any plan of using Doumit as a catcher. Anything more than a late inning emergency replacement can not be justified. Our young and struggling pitching staff must be given any edge the Twins can provide. There has been much discussion about the Twins carrying 5 catchers. It is really 4 if Doumit is rightly moved into a Jim Thome role. It is 3 if Butera does not return. One of the three, Pinto, is not near ready for the majors. That leaves Mauer and Herrmann. The bigger question must be asked about the Twins management. From the outside, it seems like they are taking a long time to embrace some of the metrics of the last decade. One roster decision about a back up catcher speaks volumes about the two teams. One team commits 3 million to get two years of top ranked defense. The other commits 10 million over three years for an above average bat without a position. Let's hope the Twins are right and the metrics of the last decade are poor indicators of how to build a roster and win ball games. Click here to view the article

I am concerned that he a Twins will feel they have to extend Suzuki if they don't trade him. That would be a mistake. If he can't draw a prospect in return by trade, he isn't going to get the 20+ million over three he is seeking. There is something keeping teams from giving up a reasonable prospect for him. Perhaps they don't trust the defense. Perhaps they know that high batting averages fueled by singles is not sustainable in 30+ year old catchers.

Rosenthal reports Orioles are out of Suzuki discussions.

The only pitcher caught exclusively by Suzuki is Nolasco.

What should Ryan do if the best offer is a Kris Johnson?

Other than Nolasco and Mauer, the Twins don't have any salary to eat. It really takes players with a significant commitment in future years. The amount owed Morales, Correia and Willingham would be insignificant to any team. Even the Mariners found a way to add Morales. They know the value of the prospect exceeds the dollars remaining on Morales contract.

I am in 100% agreement. I just don't believe it is a realistic expectation. I don't see why the Yankees would offer that player. They are going to offer someone from the fringe of their 40 that they would need to remove to clear a spot for Willingham. Why offer more? If the Twins hold out for a better deal, go get a better player like Rios or Byrd. Do the Twins take the fringe 40 guy or keep Willingham?

There are 52 left handed relievers (excluding closers) that have pitched at least 20 games. Of the 52, Brian Duensing ranks 36th in FIP at 3.87 and 44th in K rate at 16.3%. Andrew Miller is at 1.82 and 39.6%. Andrew Miller will get a good return. Between Miller and Duensing are other left handed relievers on selling teams. Duensing will be attractive if he has a low cost of acquisition. The acquiring team will offer a player that they would need to take off the 40 to make room for Duensing. Should the Twins trade Duensing for that player?