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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    If the Twins are going for it this year, they don't have the margin to not put out their best every game. Meyer has the better chance of winning on Thursday. When you try to do both win and rebuild, you end up in a cycle of mediocrity. The Twins may have improved to mediocre this year. They may stay mediocre for several more.
  2. jorgenswest
    I don't think there is anything to read into going to New Britain or playing a corner. He may be needed to play on a corner later this season. I think Chad Allen is in New Britain. Spending some time with him working in LF and RF would be worthwhile.
  3. jorgenswest
    It does feel better. My feelings will change if the Twins are still under .500 and Willingham, Morales, Correia, Burton and Suzuki are still regulars into August.
  4. jorgenswest
    They may call someone up to be in the bullpen as the 13th pitcher. One more start for Deduno on a short leash with Darnell or someone ready to come in. With the day off on Monday, they would next need a 5th starter on June 28. Trevor May could slot in at that point. They would need to make a roster move to get to 13. If Nunez is healthy, it can be Florimon. If not, put Nunez on DL.
  5. jorgenswest
    While 76 wins is an improvement in number, it doesn't mean the team has improved going forward. It is not enough wins to continue playing the decline phase players to the end of the season. Improving... Hughes looks to be a big plus. Gibson looks like he can be at least a number 4. Dozier continues his second half of last year. Escobar may be a starting SS. Plouffe looks more consistent and better with the glove. However... Mauer may be a big burden. The bullpen is showing signs of decline. Willingham, Morales and Suzuki will have played key roles getting to 76 but all are becoming free agents. Even if resigned, there performance should be expected to decline. In order to be an improved team going into 2015, the Twins really need to invest in more of the future. That can still happen starting August 1 if they become sellers. They need to continue playing Arcia regularly. They need to play Escobar at SS regularly. Pinto needs the majority of starts at catcher. Hicks needs to play well in AAA and be a regular upon return Meyer and May need to get 10 starts each. They need to get some young arms innings in the bullpen. They need to give a September call up to Rosario and Vargas. Making that shift for the last two months may mean that they win 72 instead of 76. They will be better off for it next year and hopefully acquire some minor league depth in the process.
  6. jorgenswest
    Part of being ready is getting through at least 6 innings. It makes a difference on the burden in the bullpen. The Rochester pitchers have had some trouble due to walks or pitch counts. If one of them replaces Deduno, the burden on the bullpen wouldn't necessarily shift because Deduno can't go deep either. Below are the number of starts since May 1 and how often the pitchers went 6. I left out the April numbers because weather and early season pitch counts make it very difficult to go 6 innings. Darnell 2 of 7 Meyer 2 of 8 Johnson 4 of 8 May 6 of 9 I think it has been reported that Meyer is on an 80 pitch count limit. Maybe that is to preserve innings for the majors and would be lifted if on the Twins For comparison, Correia has gone at least 6 innings in 9 of his 14 starts and 5 of his last 6.
  7. jorgenswest
    I think they need to be on pace for 85 wins. To get there they will need to go on some kind of good streak similar to the a Royals. It is going to take a couple of really good stretches to get in real contention. One needs to be in the next month. If not, there will be too many teams to pass.
  8. jorgenswest
    How does Logan Darnell profile in the majors? His minor league strike out, walk and ground ball rates suggest that he might be able to develop into a Brian Duensing type career.
  9. jorgenswest
    Several bats and relievers will exchange hands and get C prospects in return. The majority of trades will fit this model. Suzuki can get a better return if a competing team loses a catcher to injury. Last year the Tigers traded top prospect Garcia to fill their SS position when Peralta was injured. Most teams don't have good long term solutions to slide into the catcher or shortstop position.
  10. jorgenswest
    I assume you are talking about Willingham and Morales. While they certainly could expect a C prospect there is little precedent for better return in recent years. If a team loses a DH or LF, they will always have internal solutions. There will also be a greater supply of players that can play DH or a poor LF. The lack of in season supply at catcher will drive Suzuki's value up.
  11. jorgenswest
    Rochester had Gibson go high pitch counts in at least 3 starts last year. He didn't have the same velocity when he came to Minnesota. Another reason to call him up. The two may not be related. Gibson was also coming off injury which should have been a reason to have him on a limit.
  12. jorgenswest
    The article in MLBTR starts with the premise that they will be available if the Twins or Pirates drop out of contention. If the Twins go on a winning streak and get 4 or more games above .500 in the next month, Suzuki will not be traded. Starting catchers, shortstops, centerfielders and middle to top of the rotation starting pitching are the good trade currency at the deadline. Few starting catchers will be on the market. Many teams won't have an adequate replacement to slide in. Suzuki will have positional trade value this summer that the Twins won't find in anyone else. During the winter their will be options to replace him. It would be a mistake to sign him to an extension.
  13. jorgenswest
    MLBTR reported Wieters upcoming Tj surgery. Kurt Suzuki and Russell Martin were mentioned as possible trade targets if either team drops off. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/06/matt-wieters-to-undergo-tommy-john-surgery.html Catchers are in short supply. Suzuki will likely be the Twins only good trade chip if the Twins decide to sell.
  14. jorgenswest
    He won't be pitching Thursday.
  15. jorgenswest
    With Santana at SS, a healthy Aaron Hicks is the best option to start in CF today. He will be back.
  16. jorgenswest
    This is the outfield defense the a Twins expect to win games with this year. No worries for Nolasco though. It won't hurt his FIP.
  17. jorgenswest
    The Twins chose Bartlett, Pelfrey, Guerrier and Kubel over guys like Worley, Hendriks, Presley and Mastroianni. There may not be value in any of the 8, but the Twins went with the quartet of 30 year olds over any upside in that quartet of younger players. Rebuilding teams go the other direction. If the Twins aren't rebuilding, they need to be held accountable for winning.
  18. jorgenswest
    I agree. If it a few days though, no one is disabled and Florimon returns without being on the roster. If Plouffe is disabled, it will be more than a few days against teams in division. Romero is only part of the discussion if Plouffe is disabled.
  19. jorgenswest
    I am not sure Romero helps the team win more than Florimon. If he does, he can be added by moving Pelfrey to the 60 day DL. They don't need to save that spot for Meyer. If Meyer is coming up something will have happened to open a spot. It could be Guerrier, Burton, Correia or Deduno leaving. If they are all in to win this year, they need to have the best possible roster for these games against the Tigers and White Sox.
  20. jorgenswest
    Honest question. Who gives them a better chance to win? Romero at 3B and Escobar at SS. Escobar at 3B and Florimon at SS. The 40 man issue is easily solved. This is a key game and 4 more key games coming up. It makes the most sense to put the Twins in the best position to win. I am not sure if Romero can hit enough to offset Florimon's glove, but I would take my chances with giving him a shot.
  21. jorgenswest
    I am not certain where the responsibility for 25 and 40 man roster should be put. Probably not on Gardy. It seems like when he wants a change on the 25, he goes through press. I do think that the Twins feel they have the team to win now. The roster decisions from the front office and line up decisions from the manager demonstrate as much. That makes it much easier to judge their performance than in the past few years of taking lumps with some struggling young players mixed with replacement level guys. 85 wins in 2014 or clean house. I think they will get there.
  22. jorgenswest
    Of the 30 centerfielders with 150 or plate appearances. Hicks ranked 24th in wRC+. He did that by ranking first in OBP and 29th in ISO (ahead of Revere). Below him in RC+ were Eaton, Bonifacio, Upton, Bourjos, Hamilton and Sizemore. It isn't enough of a sample to state he is the better player. It does describe a contribution that fits somewhere between 21st and 27th (77-82). Last year he was at 63 ahead of only Upton. It is progress. He is young and will continue to improve. Part of improving is playing in AAA and getting some consistent at bats from the right side as well as playing some RF and LF.
  23. jorgenswest
    I would hope the Twins ignore the data also. Data in small sample sizes has no predictive value and should be ignored. If using data to determine the Twins best hitters, you would need to grab the last 200 plate appearances to consider strike out rate, walk rate and isolated power. Observation of his catching skills and in particular throwing should not be ignored. His skill has dropped since last fall. If Suzuki is injured, he is the Twins only good option to be the regular catcher. Going to Rochester and catching regularly will hopefully help Pinto get back to his 2013 skill level defensively and be more ready to help if needed.
  24. jorgenswest
    It is an organizational choice. You can decide to be matter of fact and not get into motivations or character about a player. In yesterday's game, Suzuki was out at second on a close play trying to get a double. It didn't need to be a close play. He didn't hustle out of the box. The Twins have a choice on how they present it. They can not mention it and minimize it if asked. They can be matter of fact by doing no more than simply acknowledging he didn't run hard out of the box. They can elaborate and get into why he didn't run out if the box. This might include joking about it, giving an opinion, speculating on character or motivation. I am not sure if it came up at all in the press conference. If it wasn't asked about, it was Gardenhire's choice whether to bring it up. Which is better for the team?
  25. jorgenswest
    I thought that when LaVelle is writes stuff like "people in the organization believe" that it was comments from actual people in the organization. I didn't realize it was stuff he deduced.
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