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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The question mark on a 40 year old player is no smaller than the question mark on the 5 players in their 20s. It would be foolish to sign Hunter to a contract next year. He is going to play until he is awful and the Twins don't want to be the team paying for that season. The Twins are 48-50 in games Torri has played Mentoring + 993 OPS = 48 Wins Mentoring + 448 OPS = 50 Losses He will have fewer good games next year and his mentoring doesn't help when he isn't hitting.I trust the Twins are smart enough to let him move on.
  2. jorgenswest
    Hunter is going to keep playing until he has negative value. I hope the Twins aren't the team paying for that season. It could be next year.
  3. jorgenswest
    Isn't the 2.140 date related to the group that will earn it following this year? For example, Arcia was 1.132 at the start of the season and was likely to miss the cutoff bu projection. I don't think they would have near enough data to make a projection on this year's group. There has only been a handful of years since the super 2 group size increased. There will be years where that number is below 122.
  4. jorgenswest
    The great part about the human element is humans adapt. Umpires and teams have worked hard to improve. The metric pointed out a competitive advantage that was relatively unseen. Once realized, humans did the work to reduce that advantage significantly. There is value in the metric. There is value in the human response to the data.
  5. jorgenswest
    They might want to make sure he spends 20 days on assignment. Here are the considerations. Use an option this year and lose that possibility in 2018 by going 20 daysReduce service time by 20 days and the possibility of super 2 status goes from small to 0.The likelihood of needing an option in 2018 and super 2 status are both small. Small enough that he should be called up immediately if Rosario or Hicks are injured, Meanwhile the Twins were wise to stop the service time clock while he comes back from injury and avoid any possibility of super 2.
  6. jorgenswest
    If any are interested the best source for catcher numbers (not just framing) is BP. BP data also factors in pitch count and evaluates ability to limit passed balls/wild pitches. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1819124 Go back and look over the years. You will notice the range from top to bottom is much smaller now. In 2011 it was 60 runs. The season isn't over yet but today it is 24 from top to bottom. It probably will end around 30. Catchers and teams have studied video and improved. Umpires have studied video and improved. Some guys that couldn't improve are no longer catching. The shocking difference between Molina and Doumit as the studies first appeared no longer exist among catchers. The competitive advantage gained or lost isn't nearly as significant.
  7. jorgenswest
    If anyone claimed Suzuki, Nolasco or Santana I would let them go. Unfortunately, I don't think any team would risk taking their contracts. If a player has a no trade contract but is waived and claimed, can they be let go without compensation? It isn't a trade. I realize no team is going to pick up Mauer with this many years left on his contract, but I do wonder about the possibility down the road. While not being a trade, the Twins do acquire salary relief.
  8. jorgenswest
    I don't commit four years to two pitchers who had a below league average adjusted ERA through prime ages 26-31. If you are below average in your prime, you pitch poorly from 32-35 unless you are Dennis Martinez. Everyone else declined significantly. I don't extend Hughes into his decline following one good season. It was foolish to do so. They had two more years in his prime at a very good number. These kind of decline phase moves guarantee a cycle of meciocrity.
  9. jorgenswest
    Sounds like a good spot for Caleb to go. I hope he does well.
  10. jorgenswest
    The worry about the Twins starting pitching hasn't changed. They have several years and dollars invested in pitchers that project to be bottom of the rotation or worse pitchers as they decline. Instead of rebuilding they have tried to patch and they could be paying for the 2014-15 patch through 2018. The younger pitchers need time to struggle and adjust to the major leagues. It might take 50 starts. The young starting pitchers are not very far along that path.
  11. jorgenswest
    One of the reasons to wait on service time is so that you don't have prospects passing these deadlines on the DL. Most of Mauer's first year was spent on the DL gaining service time. Had the Twins waited to begin Mauer's service time, they would have negotiated with him after a good 2010 season as opposed to an out of this world 2009 season. He would have been a year older and the contract would likely have been smaller and shorter term.
  12. jorgenswest
    I hope we are concerned about losing a guy who has posted an OPS of 807 against right handed pitching. He has 30 career home runs in 513 at bats. Do the Twins have any other OF that comes close to matching that production against right handed pitchers over the last three years? He did this at a young age and does not need to be a late bloomer. He just needs to continue and be used in a platoon role by the Twins. We should be worried about his performance following his hip injury. The return that may have been too soon had to have messed up his timing. This year might be lost, but he has to be in the plan to start in RF against right handed pitching next year.
  13. jorgenswest
    They called him up in June after they believed the super 2 cut off had passed. They can't get an extra year of service time unless they had started him in AAA next season. I am not sure how the additional service time is a real negative. It doesn't help him towards super 2 status and waiting until next May for him to make his debut isn't reasonable. I guess if he struggles for multiple years like Hicks and Arcia and needs the options then it might matter. They don't need to use an option this year though. If he does struggle, the real negative will be his performance and not the service time. Am I correct in stating that if he starts on the roster opening day 2016 the service time on the DL will not have enabled him to become a free agent a year earlier or allowed him arbitration a year earlier?
  14. jorgenswest
    Just finished a big four game series with Toronto. Toronto exposed several weaknesses. One that stood out to me was a single hit from each of Mauer and Hunter. A big void from two guys who need to lead with their bats. Hunter was praised for his leadership when his OPS was over .800 in May. That same leadership isn't very useful with an OPS well below .600 since July 1. The Twins need to find two guys at these positions to put in the middle of the line up that can lead with their bats.
  15. jorgenswest
    That sounds impressive until you realize his career from 2009-2014 consists of around 70 starts. He isn't going to be in a bunting situation as a sub pinch running or defensive replacement. Even as a pinch hitter they would leave in the pitcher to bunt. Of those starts the majority of them are batting 8th and 7th. No manager is going to bunt with the pitcher coming up. It is quite possible that a similar situation never came up in his time with the Cardinals.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Twins have 21 sacrifice bunts this year and that puts them in the middle of the pack in the AL. Hardly an obsession. As for last night, the Twins did increase the likelihood that they would score exactly two runs slightly by successfully bunting. It helps that the double play possibility is eliminated by the bunt. However by bunting, they decreased the likelihood they would score more than 2 runs significantly. Therefore the likelihood that they would win the game went down from 23% to 16%. Of course this is all without context. A good hitter batting with no outs and runners on first and second is optimal. The bunt is probably the best move with a weak hitter. The Twins had Torii Hunter on the bench. Perhaps they no longer view him as a good hitter in that situation.
  17. jorgenswest
    It is so difficult to hit major league pitching. I think it is more likely that Arcia will do better against lefties than Kepler right now. Kepler's numbers looks so good and they are so good. Buxton's did also but his strike out rate doubled in the majors. Chattanooga also boosts offense and run scoring. Kepler has the better glove in LF but reports of a weak arm make RF a questionable fit. Rosario is better in LF also. Arcia needs to come up and start playing for Torii against most right handed pitching today. The Twins have a spot. The 5th starter is not needed for 10 days. I would be encouraged if any of Kepler, Buxton and Arcia were called up in place of Duffey. If I had to predict who is more likely to contribute against right handed pitching over the next few weeks. I would go with Arcia.
  18. jorgenswest
    Mauer is a replacement level 1B. The money is gone. At some point, the Twins need to let him go so they have a better chance of winning. I am not even sure they can keep him on the bench. In the era of 13 man pitching staffs, the bench is limited to a catcher, middle infielder and 4th OF that can play CF. No space for a pinch hitter when the staff has to go to 13.
  19. jorgenswest
    Return Duffey. With Monday off 5th starter not needed for 10 days. Call up a bat tonight (not a SS). Get May stretched out by the 15th.
  20. jorgenswest
    Monday is an off day. Fifth starter not needed for 10 days. Send back Duffey. Call up Arcia or Kepler or even Buxton. By the 15th, May or even Graham can be stretched out. If not one of those two, Berrios can get a shot or maybe Milone is eligible to return. Bottom line: no reason to carry Duffey on the roster until the 15th. No reason to give the others an extra day rest to give him a second start. Good reasons to add a bat to the roster.
  21. jorgenswest
    Mauer can't hit Price. He shouldn't have been in the line up. The salary shouldn't matter. No way the Twins were going to make the playoffs unless Perkins remained close to perfect. If he had blown three or four saves prior to break our expectations might have been more realistic. This team needs a lot of help to match up with the best in baseball. They weren't going to solve C, 1B, RF, SS and the bullpen during the trade deadline. Even if they had, they still don't have an ace to pitch in the wild card game or an elimination game.
  22. jorgenswest
    In 2012 the Twins drafted a bunch of college relievers with the intention of finding starting pitchers. Duffey was one of them sharing the closing duties with Chargios at Rice. I thought and probably said at the time that the Twins would not get a single major league start from this group of relievers. Happily hoping Duffey continues to prove me wrong.
  23. jorgenswest
    Perkins was nearly perfect in the first half leading to a very good record. That wasn't going to continue. Has he blown 4 games since the break? Had he been able to stay perfect all of the other real Twin issues would not have been as exposed. Relative to their position, they are getting poor production from 1B, RF, C and SS. Shortstop and right field were closer to the median at 81 games but have fallen off. RF and 1B are offense first positions and have been very inadequate. Very few members of their bullpen could make the pen of the other contenders. Would the Royals be able to use anyone other than Perkins? Pinch hitting is a huge void compared to other teams. That is a lot of stuff to fix that was there a month ago and not as exposed with the perfection of Perkins. As they move into winter, they have three position players that are In the bottom third at their positions and in decline. They can not be expected to be better next year. They can take a big step next year if they can fix 1B, RF and C.
  24. jorgenswest
    MLB pipeline has him at 20 so that is one very large border. Hu throws 90-92 now. A pitcher's velocity peaks in early 20s and is very unlikely to go up and will be in slow decline. A right handed pitcher with his velocity is going to need some terrific secondary pitches. He gets A ball hitters out with his palm ball. While it works well in A-Ball scouts question whether it will continue to be effective as he approaches the majors. I would have traded Hu before any of the other 19 players listed before him in the MLB pipeline. He has a chance to be a back end of the rotation starter or reliever. That chance gave him enough value to get a major league reliever who has done a better job of getting right handed batters out than anyone else in their bullpen.
  25. jorgenswest
    Connecting with one thought... The Twins offense this year from RF, 1B and DH is woefully inadequate. They are counting on those spots in the middle of the order. Sano fixed DH. Hunter has an RC+ of 100 and Mauer 94 and together contribute 0 WAR. They aren't in the line up for their glove. If the Twins want to fix the middle of the line up it is those two spots they need to fix. Is it possible that the Twins would have a better chance of winning next year if neither was on the roster?
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