Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,284

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Santana's strike out rate dropped and walk rate increased as happens with age. It reasonable to expect further decline particularly with an entire season of use. There is also an increased likelihood of injury as he ages. The Twins need to plan for that decline as they look at next year. I would think the performance above would be a top quartile projection.
  2. jorgenswest
    Twins were 8-12 against NL Central this year. Overal central v central was 51-49 in favor of AL central. No significant difference. There might be a difference of a few wins if they were in the AL, but the Cubs performed significantly better than the Twins this year. Does anything else matter?
  3. jorgenswest
    Cubs were willing to trade off a good prospect for Rizzo. Twins keep prospects. Cubs turned a moderate free agent signing in Feldman into Jake Arrietta. Twins extend moderate signings until they have no value. Cubs look to move valued trade asset like Samardzija. The Twins have a valued asset in Perkins that they aren't willing to move. The Cubs have done a better job of optimizing their assets than the Twins.
  4. jorgenswest
    Escobar is 26 years old. He has hit consistently well for two years. He hit well in AAA at 24. Relative to his position, his track record through age 26 is better than almost anyone on the roster through their age 26 season. The front office deserves credit for getting great value in exchange for 10 Liriano starts.
  5. jorgenswest
    Thanks. Looks like they can make strides by addressing RF, C and the bench. CF is also low but Schafer's at bats will not be in the mix next year.
  6. jorgenswest
    If that is true, no one would trade for Nolasco without getting prospects also. If the Twins end up having to trade prospects to dump his salary as well as take on another liability it would have been better to just release him.
  7. jorgenswest
    It might be best to simply release Nolasco. The cost of trading him may be greater either in prospect or a decline phase veteran contract that is a bigger liability.
  8. jorgenswest
    There are 4 shortstops that have a better than 100+ OPS over the last two years. Tulowitzki has the fewest at bats of the 4 at 798. Tulowitzki Crawford Peralta Escobar. Maybe it doesn't need fixing. Maybe they should have realized that after 2014. Do we realize that few shortstops hit league average or better
  9. jorgenswest
    Arcia had a bad year. The hip injury led to poor mechanics. It can be fixed. They need to have a plan that allows for him to have a role on the team. They need his left handed home run bat. Santana will be valuable in a Bonifacio type utility role. They can give Kepler AAA seasoning into June and get an additional year of control. They can reduce Berios' innings by starting him in AAA and giving him light work the first month. They are better off having his innings at the end of the year and they will get an additional year of control with the move. They need to find someone who will get a larger share of the catching role. They do not need Suzuki's contract to vest. I hoped that would be Pinto, but they may need to look outside the organization. I would not re-sign Hunter with his 88 OPS+ and below average defense in RF. I don't think he can lead from the bench.
  10. jorgenswest
    At the time of the trade, the context of Escobar's minor league numbers were very misunderstood among Twin followers. He was 4.8 and 3.5 years younger than league in his previous two minor league levels. That misunderstanding carries through to today. Trading two months of Liriano for a young up the middle player was a good trade. The upside of his young age at advanced levels provided value that few acknowledged. He was excellent in Rochester in 2013 though 4.5 years younger than league. He has been an above league average hitter at SS in 2014 and 2015. The extended contract as he enters his first year of arbitration should be reasonable. If not, they don't need to do it.
  11. jorgenswest
    Maybe they get a contract that is reasonable even if he fills a utility role. It seems he would be valuable to the team in that role beyond team control at 29.
  12. jorgenswest
    I am not sure it is appreciated how rare it has been for a Twin shortstop to put up an OPS+ above league average. Twin shortstops with an OPS+ over 100 Smalley 4 (76,78,79,80) Versalles 2 (64,65) Cardenas 2 (68,71) Escobar 2 (14,15) Guzman 1 (01) In the 33 seasons between Escobar and Smalley there was one of those seasons. That performance has to at least deserve a little consideration for an extension.
  13. jorgenswest
    He was not extended. They already had him under team control through 2018. Escobar will hit free agency at a younger age. He has been more productive through age 26. He might be a better candidate to buy years of free agency.
  14. jorgenswest
    So much has been discussed about possible extensions to Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe. Extensions though the Twins had them under control into their 30s. Eduardo Escobar enters the last weekend of the season matching Brian Dozier's OPS at 757. He matches him despite being 2 years younger. He is doing it at a more premium position. Unlike Plouffe and Dozier, the Twins do not have team control through his prime (ends at 29). Should the Twins try to extend Escobar this winter and buy his first two free agency seasons? What might that extension look like? Are his age 25 and age 26 seasons an aberration? They are far superior to the age 25/26 seasons put up by Plouffe and Dozier.
  15. jorgenswest
    Can May stay healthy in the pen? Has he had any health troubles in his career before this year's move to the pen?
  16. jorgenswest
    I would take a chance on Kepler and not re-sign Hunter. There is not any more space for further decline.
  17. jorgenswest
    No reason to shop Plouffe. He has value to this team the next two years. At some point need to keep the value rather than trade for future value. They should listen to offers for any player, but they don't have to put trading Plouffe on the to do list for this winter. Nor do they need to extend him.
  18. jorgenswest
    I have written enough about Suzuki's defense and bat. By any measure they are both significantly below average for the position. On paper, it wouldn't seem like a big drop off to Herrmann or Fryer is possible with the bar set so low. I have come to believe that there is an important aspect of Suzuki's contribution that has gone unmeasured by the myriad of metrics available.
  19. jorgenswest
    The expectation that they would get a reliever at the trade deadline and not have to give up anything significant in terms of prospects is one that Ryan could not meet. Given Jepsen's number of successful high leverage situations to this point, the trade is a key to the Twins remaining in the hunt.
  20. jorgenswest
    He has more trade value without the extension. It is too late into arbitration to get significant cost control.
  21. jorgenswest
    Since 2012 Milone has performed better than Santana in well over 500 innings with an ERA+ of 100 vs. 94. He is in his prime and Santana in decline. Wouldn't the Twins be better off with Milone in the rotation over Santana? We could look at FIPs from this year also but the ERA estimators converge with ERA around 500 innings. At that sample their difference in ERA+ combined with their difference in age is meaningful. Three to five years are used for projections and Milone should project as the better pitcher. Trading or even shopping Milone doesn't make sense unless the return is significant. If the Twins care about winning, they put the best pitchers in the rotation without consideration to salary.
  22. jorgenswest
    He is 25. He has shown better numbers as a reliever this year. He has very good numbers against left handed batters. As a starter he sits 92-93 and it is reasonable that would go up as a reliever. Duensing and Cotts are free agents. O'Rourke is a disaster against a right handed batter. Thompson had a shot. The Twins need a good left handed option in the pen and a homecoming for Brad Hand could be the answer.
  23. jorgenswest
    I need your help. I am wondering which players will become eligible for the rule 5 draft this year. I have these possibilities. Bard, Luke Baxendale, D.J. Chargois, J.T. Dean, Pat Goodrum, Niko Haar, Bryan Harrison, Travis Hicks, Dalton Johnson, Cole Jones, Zack Jorge, Felix Lee, Brett Melotakis, Mason Michael, Levi Muren, Alexander Polanco, Joel Rodriguez, Dereck Rogers, Taylor Rosario, Randy Shibuya, Tim Valera, Rafael Vielma, Engelb Wade, Logan Walker, Adam Williams, Corey Wimmers, Alex I also wonder which minor players can become minor league free agents if not added to the 40.I am sure there are several more but I don't know if I missed anyone of significance or if someone above belongs in this list. Beresford, James Bernier, Doug Bowden, Michael Hamburger, Mark Oliveros, Lester Ortiz, Daniel Prior, Stephen Rodriguez, Reynaldo Any help is appreciated. I did not intend this thread to be a place to comment on the worthiness of a player being added to the 40. That could go on for pages. I am hoping to have a place to get help with who is eligible for rule 5 or minor league free agency.
  24. jorgenswest
    FIP and xFIP are good ERA estimators with a full season of stats. I am very certain that they have no predictive meaning at Nolasco's sample this year. They don't even work as first half measure trying to predict second half stats.The reason they are valuable is they do a good job of predicting ERA at 200 innings. The various ERA predictors converge with ERA around 500 innings. All that leads to this statement. Nolasco was a well below league average starting pitcher through his prime of 26-31. The sample is over 1000 innings. It is very rare that a pitcher with his prime career ERA+ (useful at that large sample) has valuable seasons age 32-35. Dennis Martinez is the only member of the club. It was a bad signing and he became untradeable the instant the Twins jumped in early and gave him a four year contract. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/
  25. jorgenswest
    With out any idea of plate appearances the data might not have meaning. It could even be two splits for the same guy with the small sample driving the variation.
×
×
  • Create New...