jorgenswest

A replacement level player is one who requires no marginal resources to acquire. A replacement level performace last year would be that of Despaigne from the Padres. He had 0 WAR with a FIP of 4.77 and ERA of 5.80 in 125 innings. All Twin pitchers project significantly better than replacement. They will not need to turn to a replacement level pitcher with their depth.

The Twins strength is that they have 8 guys are better than replacement. None of them (other than maybe Berrios) projects to be a major league average starter though. They will likely have seven guys who start at least 10 games next year. Their depth will be an asset. If they decide to trade away that asset, they need to get a real asset in return. There is no reason to move a guy for the purpose of clearing space. There is nothing in the long term data that separates these pitchers. Let them battle it out in the spring. Spring numbers won't mean anything but the skilled eyes of the coaching staff has to be able to discern the best 5.

No one would. If Diamond had 3 years and over 500 innings of 2012 performance he would be worthy of that contract. At some point performance becomes important. The better ERA estimators converge with ERA at 500 innings. At that point ERA does a very good job of describing performance. Neither Bonsor or Diamond reached that level because they could not sustain performance for multiple years. Bonsor also has 51 relief appearances in his data. I would hope no one in the Twins front office would think they are good comps for Milone in projecting future performance.

Side note on using splits by inning or times faced. In the first inning starters are guaranteed to see the best the other team has to offer. The data is skewed by the batters faced. As for third time around the lineup, the data is also significantly biased. Pitchers will often make 2+ times around the lineup. The split for third time around will be heavily skewed with many plate appearances from the top of the line up and few plate appearances from the bottom. Generalizations and conclusions should not be made about a pitcher's ability to go deep in games or his ability to be strong in the first inning use these splits.

I am not certain that Milone is incapable of going beyond 6 innings. He hasn't been given the chance very often. That can happen with lefties and several right handed options sitting in the bullpen. He was asked to throw over 100 pitches much more often while in Oakland and maintained his performance level. In any case, it may not be that important. Teams are rethinking the need for a pitcher to go deeper into games. Some teams are facing success turning to their bullpen in the 6th inning. It important that he is able to pitch deep when the bullpen needs rest. I think he showed in Oakland that he is capable.

I don't think the Twins discount Milone. They will be going to arbitration with him for a second year. They shouldn't discount Milone. He has performed better than any other Twin starter since his first full season of 2012. By ERA+ (adjusted for league and park) Milone 99 Hughes 96 Santana 96 Nolasco 85 The varying ERA estimators converge with ERA by 500 innings and the sample for all of these starters is significantly more than 500 innings over 4 years. Steamer projects him to have a better ERA next year than any other Twin starter (with 10+ projected starts) other than Berrios. He is the only lefty. He is younger than Hughes, Santana and Nolasco. He has performed better according to ERA+ going back 4 years. He is projected by Steamer to have better ERA next year and likely the year following. Why would anyone discount him?

Abad's fastball velocity dropped by almost 2 mph last year and it was no longer an effective pitch for him. He added a cutter which was not effective. He also had difficulty getting out lefties for the first time as they put up an OPS of 860 against him. The combination of fly ball tendencies and decreased velocity led to too many home runs. He goes from a park that has been near the bottom every year in home run factor (27th - .777) to one that has been middle of the pack (13th - 1.058). Seems like a typical Twin reliever signing. If his velocity isn't routinely around 93 next spring they need to drop him.

Joe earned his huge contract with his elite performance. Concussions have eroded his ability. I agree with both and can't fault Joe for the contract or drop in performance. I can find fault with the Twins management if they don't put the best team on the field in 2016. Is it possible that Arcia and Vargas are both more likely to put up better offensive numbers than Joe next year? Steamer and Bill James project Vargas to have a better OPS. Steamer projects Arcia to be the best of the three. If either is clearly swinging the bat better than Joe this spring, how do the Twins justify starting Joe?

Revere through age 25 had an OPS of .654Hicks through age 25 has an OPS of .655

My concern is that May will not stay healthy as a reliever. He spoke towards the end of last season about his back trouble and not having the rest days he used to get as a starter.

The Twins need to prepare Mauer or Park to play a position other than 1B. There will come a time where an injury to Sano or some else that will push that player to DH. Mauer to RF might make the most sense. They can wait until an injury necessitates the move or they can prepare this spring. I am not suggesting it should be his regular role. I am certain positional flexibility for Mauer or Park will become necessary.

It is important that either Mauer or Park prepare to play a position other than 1B. Sano's bat needs to stay in the lineup and leg injuries similar to last year would push him to DH. The Twins can wait for that to happen and send Mauer or Park out to the OF with little preparation. Alternatively, they might plan for that eventuality and give Park or Mauer some time at a position other than 1B in the spring.

Jones almost made it through. Most teams passed rather than take him. He wasn't anyone's first choice. It is very rare for a team to roster two rule 5 guys all year. He will probably be offered back. With only one late pick it seems the Twins did well in selecting their 40. On the other hand, maybe the system isn't that deep.

Nolasco has been injured for two years and was mediocre prior to the injury. On the open market he might get 1-2 million with incentives. That is very little trade value. Even if the Twins cover the difference, they still don't get a return of a player. Essentially the Twins could offer Nolasco and pay all of his salary over the next two years and get a marginal prospect in return. Might as well keep him. If he can return to his number 4 starter level, that is better than anything they would get in trade. If he doesn't perform in spring or early on, release him.

I have only seen two sets of projections (Steamer and Bill James) but the Twins starting roatation looks to be inferior to the other rotations in the central. They put themselves in this position by signing mediocre aging free agents to long term contracts. The commitment makes it more difficult to improve the situation and it is hard to imagine a team finishing above third in the division when they other teams have better rotations.

His fastball velocity has dropped from 96s in 2013 to 94s last year. Accoring to fangraphs the pitch value of his fastball took a nose dive last year to a career low -8.1. The change up has always been his best pitch, but he needs a fastball to set up the change. When relievers lose their fastball they are often done. Has Rodney lost his fastball or was his 2015 season an aberration? At 38 years old in 2015, it is very possible that he has lost the fastball that enabled his change up to be such a devastating pitch.

The Twins waited a few years before they made their first winter meeting trade. In December of 1964 they traded Gerry Arrigo to the Reds for minor league infielder Cesar Tovar. It was a trade of two 23 year olds. Arrigo made his debut in 1961 and played his first full season with the Twins in 1964. He was a left handed starter pitching in a "plug in starter/long relief" role that year. He finished the season 7-4 with a 3.84 ERA. He struck out 96 batters and walked 45 in 105 innings. He was a promising young left handed starting pitcher. Cesar Tovar was a minor league second baseman blocked by Pete Rose. He had moved into a utility role in the minors playing SS, OF, 3B and a little 2B in 1964. The Reds could not find a place for Tovar and envisioned him a utility player. The Twins were looking for help at 2B or 3B. The Twins were ridiculed at the time of the trade. Dick Sisler, manager of the Reds, commented at the time that teams did not deal lefty starting pitchers for minor league infielders. That comment certainly resonates with me. I can't imagine being very excited about trading a major league 23 year old left handed starting pitcher for a minor league infielder stuck at AAA. Arrigo had pitched a one hitter in one of his 12 starts in 1964. Calvin Griffith said they had to pay through the nose in that trade. Reports for the Cincinnati Enquirer said that the Twins were seeking Tommy Helms but settled for Tovar. The Reds were seeking a power hitter and had been trying to get Bob Allison or Jimmie Hall from the Twins. The Twins must have know something about Tovar. They had him on loan from the Red in AAA in 1963. He worked with Billy Martin and played with Tony Oliva that year. Martin pushed for Tovar. He appreciated his aggresive style of play. Tovar was a player you had to see play. He was better than the numbers. Jack McKeon was the manager of that 1963 club and he had to get him in the lineup to lead off. Trying him in the OF McKeon saw that he got amazing jumps as if he had always played there. He returned to the Reds minor leagues in 1964 and helped his team win the AAA title. Frank Lucchesi commented that Tovar killed them in the field and with the bat. Still he was stalled in his third season of AAA. When he did play in the majors in 1965 with the Twins he was the ninth Venezuelan to reach the majors. He did not play a lot with the team that year, but the Twins had Billy Martin tutoring him. He finally arrived in 1966 and was among the games best lead off hitters. He played all over the field his first few years playing all nine positions for the Twins and repeating that feat in the Venezuela winter league. The Twins clearly won the trade. Arrigo never was able to command the strike zone for sustained success. He had 1.6 WAR after the trade and one good season. Tovar is credited with 28.1 WAR. I am sure I would have criticized the trade at the time. Even more now in the era of so much data. Someone on the Twins, likely Billy Martin, saw the player outside of the numbers. He was such a joy to watch at the Met. You could see his love for the game and his all out effort and aggressiveness that somehow does not get measured well in the numbers. I hadn't see a similarly aggressive young player since until this year. Eddie Rosario's aggressive style on the basepaths, approach at the plate and range in the outfield are very much like the young Tovar when he arrived. For more reading and sources that I used to write this article follow the links below. http://www.cooloftheevening.com/cesar_tovar.htm http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/fb4be4bb http://www.baseballhistorian.com/trade_details.cfm?first_name=Gerry&last_name=Arrigo

It seems like there have been winter meetings with major leagues as long as I can remember. In fact it used to be more significant prior to free agency. Seems like one winter Bill Veeck set up in public and made a bunch of trades with the White Sox. I can remember stories of Frantic Frank Lane or Trader Lane being very active at the winter meetings. If it ever just a minor league event it must have been long before my time.

Since his first full season in 2012, Milone has an ERA+ of 99. That is better than either Hughes or Santana over that same time span. He is also younger. He is certainly worth his cost in arbitration.

I don't care about the number. I do care that once he is a Twin, he earns his spot on the roster and playing time based on his performance rather than size of his contract.

I like your ideas. I think that pitching usage will evolve again. I do wonder about the third time through the line up data. The average start for the Twins was was around 24 batters faced. I would guess that one of the factors driving the difference in the OPS is that there were several instances where the pitcher didn't make it to batter 27. The third time through data would be weighted with more plate appearances from the top 1/3 in the line up rather than the bottom 1/3. A pitcher will almost always make it through the first time around and the plate appearances from the top and bottom of the order would be close to the same. The imbalance caused by not making it to batter 27 must be part of that difference in the OPS. The third time through data has a larger ratio of at bats from the better hitters.

The Twins chose to add Yorman Landa and Randy Rosario to the 40 man roster. There is no doubt they have major league velocity. They also haven't found success in Low A ball yet. They opened in Cedar Rapids in 2014 and were injured early in the season. Last year both returned from injuries and pitched in rookie ball before entering low A in 2015. They need a career path where they can be established in the majors before they run out of options 2016- They really should start in Cedar Rapids again with the hopes of making it to High A for the second half. A dominant half season in Low A followed by some success in high A would be a good progress. One Option used. 2017- By the end of 2017, they hopefully can be finding success in AA. Perhaps they start by dominating high A ball. The transition to AA can be difficult. Ideally they will have spend a good part of the season at that level. Two options used. 2018- AA is the key. If they did not have a full season of success at that level in 2017 it might be the start point for 2018. Dominance should get them some time at the major league level. Third option used. Option rules do allow select players to get a fourth option year, but they’re only eligible during their first five seasons in full-season ball. Both Landa and Rosario opened 2014 on the full-season Cedar Rapids roster. I think they will get three options. Someone can help here because I am not certain. With good progress they might span the 4 minor league levels in over 2+ seasons and arrive in the majors in 2018. They will need to pitch well right away. They will be on their last option. Neither will have an option on opening day 2019 at 24 years old. It is very unlikely either will be an established major league pitcher at the point the Twins need to decide whether to keep them. There is a long discussion about the merits of keeping Pinto and protecting Jones instead. That should continue in the major league forum. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20798-article-twins-add-seven-to-their-40-man-roster-lose-achter-pinto/ Did the Twins make a mistake in putting them on the Cedar Rapids roster to open 2014? They were 19 years old on opening day. If the Twins had sent them to extended spring training instead, they would have been allowed a fourth option year. The Twins have been criticized for moving their players too slowly in the past. Is this a case where they were too aggressive?

I also noticed on this list several players above Plouffe that moved to third base from another position. Teams with a need at 3B have other options than sign Freese or trade for Plouffe.

Graham should be in the starting rotation in AAA next year. He is worth a 40 spot to see if the talent he had before the injury resurfaces.

Thanks. The context relative to other teams and players available is important.