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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Belisle pitched well. He kept hitters off balance and was not hit hard. He was in trouble in his 9th inning as a result of a two singles. The second single was a weak bloop just over the infield. Bad luck for the Twins on the bloop. Bad base running for the Jays on the double play. A single, two strike outs and a lazy fly ball to right field in the 10th. A very good performance. If doesn't mean anything for the rest of the season but he executed his pitches and kept hitters off balance when the Twins desperately needed a few innings.
  2. jorgenswest
    They likely had a plan for his development and Castro was a part of that plan. Wilson was plan B. I wish they had a better plan B but any veteran catcher signing with the Twins knew plan B starts in AAA. I hope and kind of expect we will see Garver starting 4 times a week. He hasn’t been catching Gibson or Berrios very often. When he does that will be a sign of getting the larger workload. In fact he had been catching only Lynn and Idorizzi for a while. This week he caught both Mejia and Santana. The Twins may already be increasing his usage. I hope so.
  3. jorgenswest
    I think he has improved this year. I think he is spending a lot of time outside of games both working on technique and learning the league. The development of a catcher is a slow one.
  4. jorgenswest
    Huge game from Garver, game saving innings from Garver and a big extra innings double from a Dozier lead to nice win. It is great to be able to just sit and enjoy the game of baseball.
  5. jorgenswest
    I saw the trade thought posted by Mike of Lynn for Gray in his news thread. I agree that the Yankees don’t make that move though the Twins can help with salary. How about Gibson for one of their top pitching prospects plus Gray? With Gray they have some talent controlled through 2019 to work with and they have another good arm in the system. There is some non zero likelihood that Gray is better than Gibson next year. He also could be a guy a few pitches from an injury.
  6. jorgenswest
    Astudillo also did not catch in the 4 weeks prior to his first game in the majors. He started mainly at 3B with a few starts in the outfield. Prior to that he was the primary catcher. The Twins have signed a series of fill ins at catcher for Rochester this year in Cameron Rupp, Jordan Pacheco and Juan Graterol. All were added after the Twins staff had a chance to see Astudillo at catcher in the minors for two months. I certainly didn’t expect that he would be catching upon his call up after following Rochester and seeing how they used him. Garver is the hope for next year. There is a huge amount of prep work preparing to catch each game. They can probably increase his workload to 4 games a week but the work he is doing preparing for games and learning the league is an unseen piece that is critical to his development.
  7. jorgenswest
    I will try again. Two scenarios.. 1) They believe Gibson will sustain his performance. In this case they will need to replace that performance for 2019 in trade or free agency. We disagree on how easy it will be to replace a good performing starting pitcher in the winter. I see a risk in entering 2019 without making the winter trade or free agent signing that replaces Gibson. They have control of Gibson. They can’t control the rest. I hope you are correct and finding good starting pitching can be done easily enough. 2) They don’t believe Gibson will sustain his performance. By all means sell high. If they think he will return to his previous level then he can easily be replaced. I am keeping him if I think he will pitch similarly next year. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
  8. jorgenswest
    Would it be wise to trade Gibson and then go back in the market this winter and hope to trade for someone like Gibson? The possible net gain is not worth the risk that a trade partner can’t be found. They should trade Gibson if they don’t believe he will sustain this performance. They should trade Gibson if they feel they have 5 better starters for the 2019 rotation. Otherwise they should keep him.
  9. jorgenswest
    Nice win. Nice work with full bases by Belisle. Good to see some solid defense and a nice start by Mejia.
  10. jorgenswest
    I am neither excited nor concerned about Gordon. I am confident he will be a starting and contributing major league infielder. The Twins need to be patient and make sure he has demonstrated command of the strike zone in AAA. That will happen though maybe not timed with Dozier’s departure.
  11. jorgenswest
    Sometimes I am not sure if you would prefer for the Twins to win or Dozier to have a game like tonight.
  12. jorgenswest
    Does the return for Familia from the A’s tell us anything about the market for relievers? The Mets received a 26 year old AAA reliever. The A’s need relievers and didn’t call on him though he has a ton of strike outs this year. They also received a 24 year old 3B in high A. His 741 OPS ranks him 8th on his team among regular position players. They also received international money. The Mes could have waited but took this deal. What should the Twins expect for their relievers?
  13. jorgenswest
    Context for the facts... If you press 2B and qualified on fangraphs you will get players like Zobrist who have played 2B but are not primarilynthe Cubs 2B. That is how you end up with two Cubs and 171 games of 2B play in the list. If you want to see just play at 2B you can choose the split as a 2B. If you do the split and choose team you can compare Dozier’s performance compared to the play team’s are getting at 2B. This will give a clearer picture of the season up to the all star break as long as you are comparing rate stats. If you want to use slash based stats to project forward this partial season is not enough sample to be provide a reliable comparison. You really need to include 2017 and 2016 weighing each year prior a little less. Facts are tricky. They can be framed in so many different ways. I would argue pressing the 2B button on fangraphs does not give a fair representation of how teams will project Dozier’s value the last two months of the season.
  14. jorgenswest
    They don’t need a fifth starter until next week. Seems like a position player helps more than a ninth bullpen arm with a rested pen. It should be a short stay until either a 5th starter is needed or Morrison is ready. Is there a different position player who is a better option for the weekend? Would it be better to have a ninth reliever for a series against Kansas City?
  15. jorgenswest
    I agree. Earlier I said a return of a guy like Adalberto Mejia at the time of the Nunez trade was above that bar. A similar return for Dozier or Escobar is better than the expected value of a comp pick.
  16. jorgenswest
    I look at the qualifying offer of ~18 million a little differently. When teams give a veteran free agent pitcher 4 years and 60 million they know they are likely to get 2 good years. That is what the Twins got from Santana which is a lot better than the return from Hughes and Nolasco. The Twins will likely get one good year from Castro for the three years. A one year deal for ~18 million to a player in their 30s can work out better than a 3/30 deal. As long as Dozier and Escobar finish strong, I would make the qualifying offer. I don’t go into the deadline feeling I must trade them. Instead I expect a return of at least a comp pick before I deal them.
  17. jorgenswest
    There are at least 8 pitchers in Rochester already on the 40 man roster that have earned the opportunity to play a month or two in the majors this season. That doesn’t include the possibility that Pineda is ready to throw in September. I really hope that Lynn, Rodney and Duke can be traded. Belisle can be released. I am not certain about Magill and whether he can sustain a mid 3 ERA given some of his peripherals. The staff doesn’t seem to want to use him in even moderate leverage situations. If they don’t see him as part of a contending pitching staff, they should men on. As for position players I would trust the process with Sano and Buxton as to whether they return this season. The one player not on the 40 that should get his feet wet is Wade. They already have team control through his prime. If he struggles, it is late enough in the season where they won’t need to send him back and burn an option. The lack of position players and the high number of pitchers in Rochester ready for an opportunity might guide them as they consider offers. They really could use a few position players near ready with options. They might go for higher upside younger pitchers that don’t need a 40 man spot next year. If the end up with a near ready catcher and middle infielder with a few A ball pitchers while moving players with expiring contracts it will be a successful trade deadline.
  18. jorgenswest
    I am able to look it up if you like though I don’t think the sample is large enough to be considered meaningful. It really would be mathematically best to combine the 2017 with 2018 for wRC+, OPS+ or other slash stat driven data.
  19. jorgenswest
    I don’t agree with your use of statistics. I am pretty sure that there couldn’t be 28 qualified first basemen though there could be 28 guys who played at least 1 game at first base and also had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. That list has to include players whose primary position was not 1B. The wRC+ overall for first basemen in 2017 was 113. It would be fair to note that Mauer hit better than average first base play. In addition wRC+ does not include his contribution in the field which by the eyes of many was better than league average. There is enough to support your argument for not re-signing Mauer without using statistics in a misleading way (though that may not have been your intent). If fangraphs was your source, you do not get a list of qualified firstbasemen by clicking 1B.
  20. jorgenswest
    I wonder if it is consistency or variation due to sample. SLG and OBP stabilize near a full season and batting average around 900 plate appearances. Any conclusion drawn from slash stat splits or partial seasons is on shaky ground.
  21. jorgenswest
    Why would Astudillo put on a catcher's mitt? He stopped playing catcher in AAA four weeks before his first appearance in the major leagues. Since June 2 he played primarily 3B with a couple of starts in LF and one a DH for Rochester. They gave him two months at AAA to show he was an acceptable catcher. The staff moved him off of catcher and to 3B. Why would they move him back once he hit the majors? I can see how we might question Molitor if he played him at catcher and ignored what was learned in Rochester. I don't get the persistent questioning of why Astudillo isn't getting a chance at catcher. He had a chance for two months before they moved him to 3B.
  22. jorgenswest
    I hope Romero. He should be available.
  23. jorgenswest
    His status relative to other prospects may have fallen or risen. Isn’t that what matters? I don’t think we know whether he has fallen or risen in status without knowing how many left the group. The numbers shouldn’t be compared. It could be I am wrong and my understanding of winter vs. summer rankings is flawed.
  24. jorgenswest
    Aren’t there some players who have been taken off the list? Wouldn’t we expect everyone to move up? Has Gordon moved ahead of any shortstops previously ahead of him? Have any shortstops passed him up? It could be that moving up 15 spots isn’t really moving up at all. How many players above him were taken off due to playing in the majors?
  25. jorgenswest
    Should Gordon play if Adrianza and Polanco are playing well? Is it possible that the pairing that gives the Twins the best overall play next year is Adrianza at SS and Polanco at 2B? Adrianza didn’t come to the Twins with the Baseball America or Fangraphs prospect stamp of approval but he might have a window in his prime where he is a contributing starter on a good team.
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