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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Is it better to spend money trying to add runs or prevent runs? I think that is the question. Bill James’ Pythagorean expected wins would suggest it is better to prevent runs. Let’s suppose you had a team projected to a .500 record at 4.5 runs scored given up per game. If you somehow had the resources to add 1 run per game you would be projected for 94.4 wins. If on the other hand you had the resources to prevent a run per game your projection would be 97.0 wins. In that vacuum it is better to spend on preventing runs. There are a lot of other factors at play though. I think spending on offense is less prone to injury and a little more reliable.. On the other poor pitching and short outings can put more stress on all of the arms on the staff. I think the Twins would be wise to invest resources into arms with multiple years of control rather than add to the offense.
  2. jorgenswest
    Larnach should probably start in AAA. Major league pitchers exploited his weaknesses last year. Celestino probably will join him unless he can win a regular role of at least 4 games a week in spring training. His glove in LF would be an asset if his bat is ready. They need a right handed bat that can play some corner OF. I would give Miranda a shot. Miranda needs to find at least 4 games a week between corner OF, 3B, 2B and 1B. If his bat is real LF might be the spot he can get regular play next year. I would start Kirilloff, Buxton and Kepler with Miranda, Gordon and Arraez filling in. Larnach, Celestino and Martin can battle for the first guy to get called up when injuries strike.
  3. jorgenswest
    I would absolutely seek pitching with more than one year of control in a trade. I would not seek a shortstop in trade. I would play Polanco until Lewis or Martin is ready. They need to invest their resources into pitching.
  4. jorgenswest
    He has shown that he can hit AAA pitching. Assuming he has a good spring training (not measured by spring training staff but in the eyes of the staff) he should be on the roster. He can find playing time on the four corners and 2B. His right handed bat should start against every lefty and he should be starting enough against right handed pitching to be on target for over 400 PAs. He is a much better fit than Larnach who may need to start in AAA.
  5. jorgenswest
    Of course this is a rebuild. They have no starters from last year’s opening rotation. They have no choice but rebuild the pitching staff. There are so many directions they can go but ultimately I hope any investment, whether it be in dollars or prospect capital, goes towards pitchers they control in 2023. They can rebuild the 2022 rotation with one year contracts but all that does is increase the likelihood that they will need to rebuild again next year. I would strongly prefer the struggles of young pitchers as opposed to pitchers on one year contracts. They need to rebuild but they need to rebuild with a foundation for 2023 as a priority.
  6. jorgenswest
    I have no interest in Rodriguez short of a minor league deal. His xERA and xFIP both declined significantly last year and they are the better indicators of performance this year. Colome performed exactly as should have been expected last year with an XFIP of 4.21. It had been 4.26 in 2020. The Twins made the mistake of buying too much into ERA last year with Colome. Will they with Rodriguez?
  7. jorgenswest
    Is it wise to assume that Polanco’s success at the plate is explained by his move to 2B? Isn’t it more likely that he is following a common career path? Through age 27 lots of players have their best season at the plate in that age 27 season. Polanco at SS and Arraez at 2B gives them a middle infield foundation for a very good line up. I would feel pretty good about the middle infield with those two starting and Martin and Lewis near ready.
  8. jorgenswest
    No. I am not looking for a stop gap. Before Simmons or similar one year fix… I would go with Polanco at SS and Arraez at 2B. I would give Gordon at shot at SS. I would be aggressive with Lewis and Martin and give the winner in spring the job. I don’t care if they have the money to be able to sign a one year stop gap. I am looking beyond whatever portion of the 2022 season happens after the lockout.
  9. jorgenswest
    The Story deal isn’t a one year deal and the challenge of adding pitching will continue into next year with a major portion of the budget devoted to three bats. In a few years does Story need to move off of SS? Can we expect his decline to drop from his road OPS? How much do we want to pay for the that decline in the back end of that deal? Would those dollars be better spent elsewhere? I can’t look at this deal and only think about the 2022 budget and team,
  10. jorgenswest
    Thoughts reading the thread… How much longer will Story be effective at SS. Defense does not age well at SS. Is defense at SS still important enough to sign a short term glove first defender? Why did the author choose to use OOA for the defensive metric over UZR or DRS? I had been using it also but ran into some studies that turned me back to RDS and UZR for infielders. Is there anything that points to OOA for middle infielders as more reliable? Donaldson was much worse than any other 3B last year according to UZR. Should we be worried? Most of the negative came from errors. Polanco was similar at SS with his poor UZR tied to errors in 2019. He had a positive UZR at SS in 2020. Does SS cause considerably more stress on the ankle than 2B? Is there any other case where a player moved to 2B in order to reduce stress on their legs? Is it possible the most upside in wins is Polanco at SS, Arraez at 2B and spend all available budget as a result on pitching?
  11. jorgenswest
    I don’t see Bundy as a stop gap. One year deals to Happ, Shoemaker and Hill are stop gap. Bundy is younger and they have an option. He comes with a low floor but does have upside.
  12. jorgenswest
    I like his age and upside. I like the year 2 option. This is the kind of move that smaller market teams need to make and win on. There were several successful pitchers that were signed to low cost contracts last year. The Twins haven’t been successful at finding any of them and that needs to change this year with Bundy. If the front office can’t identify those pitchers they need to find different people who can.
  13. jorgenswest
    Great news! I wonder how the Twins account for the incentives in their budget. I guess this is something that might factor in more during the trade deadline (and their willingness to take on contracts) if he is healthy and likely to earn those incentives.
  14. jorgenswest
    Intuitively that makes sense. I wonder how we would see it in the data. If 2B play is more difficult it seems like the separation between the players should be greater now. Would we see it in the standard deviation of team UZR? Team DRS? Something else? I am very interested in how the changes in the context of the game may have changed the defensive spectrum and the relative defensive value around the diamond. I wonder how it might be measured with the available data.
  15. jorgenswest
    Using Fangraphs it appears to be a similar change at 2B in ten years. There are many fewer opportunities and the range in team UZR is much more compressed today. Does that suggest that the impact of defense at 2B has less value today? I don’t know but hope someone on the Twins knows. The change at 3B isn’t as dramatic and the range of team UZR at 3B in 2021 was greater than SS or 2B in 2021. Maybe relatively defense at 3B is more important than in 2011 due to shifting as stringer bell suggested. The Twins were last in team UZR at 3B last year. For those with 500 or more innings Donaldson was on the bottom for UZR/150. It wasn’t close. Is it time for Donaldson to become an expensive DH? Similar to 3B, the outfield change in ten years isn’t as dramatic and the range between the best team UZR in the outfield is much greater than the middle infield. I wonder if the trend of trying to lift balls has made corner OF play more important relative to middle field than it was 10 years ago. I am not suggesting it is more important but I wonder if that gap is closing. The context of a ball in play has changed. There are fewer balls in play, an emphasis on lifting the ball and more shifts. How should that factor in the Twins decision about SS for next year? How does that factor in decision about whether Martin or Lewis can play SS in the major leagues?
  16. jorgenswest
    The Giants added 7 free agents to the 2021 team according to Spotrac. The largest AAV was LaStella at 6.25 million. His was a three year contract. McGee signed a 2 year contract at 2.5 million per year. DeSclafani signed a one year 6 million dollar contract. Alex Wood signed for 1 year a 3 million. The other three Casali, Wisler and Brebbia were around a million. Jose Alvarez was also signed in March for about 1 million. Zac Littell was not in Spotrac but maybe he was a minor league free agent. They also made some trade prior to the 2021 season. Sam Conrood for Carson Ragsdale. Shaun Anderson for LaMonte Wade Did I miss any other additions to the 2021 team? I would love for the Twins to follow this same path. The Giants retained all of their prospects and did not commit to any significant contracts. Instead their talented staff made great decisions. I think this is the path I would advocate for given the current outlook. Sign Buxton. Take a flyer on some inexpensive free agents. If they do trade prospects they need to get multiple years of control. It really comes down to the Twins staff making great decisions. I wish I were more confident.
  17. jorgenswest
    This team is not close to a contender. They can’t trade off prospect capital for players with one year of control.
  18. jorgenswest
    Thanks! I really appreciate the work.
  19. jorgenswest
    I was using league stats by SS from Fangraphs to get the 10087 plays made. I did not correct for innings but there must have been fewer extra innings in 2021. I don’t know if shifts also impact the zone numbers and how they are counted. The increase in strikeouts, shift and fly balls is real. I do wonder how much.
  20. jorgenswest
    Admittedly defense at SS is a hard position for me to shift towards offense. Your post had me wonder about the two starters they expect in the rotation next year. Ryan and Ober are both well below league average in ground ball rate. Perhaps they need a back up good glove at SS that starts on the occasion of an extreme groundball pitcher and comes in for Arraez (Polanco moves over) for late inning defense.
  21. jorgenswest
    Last year there were three teams that had over 5 team UZR at shortstop. They were the Royals, Cardinals and Pirates. There were two teams with below 5. The Padres and Dodgers. I don’t know if team UZR is a good measure here though. If you go by rate of plays made on balls in play in the SS zone only one AL playoff team was better than average. In the NL it was the reverse with the Dodgers below average. The reality is that 41% more plays were made at SS in 2011 than 2021. I would think that has to be a factor when building a roster.
  22. jorgenswest
    I am not certain team UZR is the best way to measure impact of defense at SS. I can add that in 2011 there were 10087 plays made at SS. In 2021 that number was 7142. There are less opportunities for a defense first shortstop like Simmons to help the team with his glove. There were more plays made by third basemen in 2011 (7336) than there were made by shortstops in 2021. Was anyone seeking a defense first 3B in 2021?
  23. jorgenswest
    Do the Twins over value defense at shortstop? In an era of more strikeouts, shifting and more fly balls is it as important as 10 years ago? Using team UZR at SS as a reference the difference between the best team and worst team in 2011 was 29. There were 8 teams in double digits. Fast forward 10 years and the range is 12.2. There are no double digit teams. The best team in 2021 would have ranked 11th in 2011. The worst 23rd. Is signing a defense first SS a mistake? I am not certain team UZR is the best way to measure impact of defense at SS. I can add that in 2011 there were 10087 plays made at SS. In 2021 that number was 7142. There are less opportunities for a defense first shortstop like Simmons to help the team with his glove. There were more plays made by third basemen in 2011 (7336) than there were made by shortstops in 2021. Was anyone seeking a defense first 3B in 2021? My thinking is changing here. I would invest in Buxton and pitching. Play Polanco at shortstop and Arraez at 2B. Keep giving SS innings to Martin and Lewis as they develop. As long as batters continue to look to lift the ball and strikeouts prevail I think bat first is the way to go. The Twins have that bat first option in house.
  24. jorgenswest
    They have no established starting pitchers for next year. I am excited by Joe Ryan but his best comps (Ben Lively, Yusmiero Petit and Freddy Peralta) according to his delivery and mix were not difference makers in a rotation. Are we sure he will stay a starter? Can Ober hold up over a full season? Will home runs be a problem for Ober? Who else do they have? They are eons away from a perfect situation. They need to expect that a good chunk of the free agent value comes the first year with the contract being a burden in later years. I don’t think a big signing can move the needle enough to contend for a World Series this year and I don’t want the burden of this contract when it can.
  25. jorgenswest
    IfI understand this right wouldn’t that mean in 10 games he was able to produce 1.7 fWAR to get to his 4.2 for the season? Wow! I want that player on my team. I would pay up big for that kind of talent.
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