jorgenswest

Thankful Bundy is still in the rotation.

The third time through the order seems to be something the Twins really believe gives the batter a significant advantage as opposed to the first two times through the order. Why else pull a starter out of the game after 3? I guess if you have a bullpen like the Yankees had in 2017 you can count on your pitchers to make it to the end. The Twins don’t have that bullpen. I don’t believe the advantage is significant. I believe it is mostly the sample of batters faced the third time through that drives those pitcher numbers. If you look at it from the hitter perspective many have their best numbers either the first or second time they face a pitcher. If they have so little faith in Smeltzer to pull him after 3 innings then he can’t be in the rotation. It needs to be Winder or someone else in that spot.

Unless they are willing to go big also I am not interested in marginal moves like this one. I am particularly not interested in a buy high when the peripherals are concerning. They need to focus their attention on the best starter and reliever moved at the deadline or they need to focus on the future as they did on the Rogers deal.

What does the list look like if it only included players that would still be under the Twins control?

There is a lot to parse here. FIP and ERA “converge” somewhere past 500 innings. That is a career for a reliever and given the changes that happen over a career it isn’t really helpful. Should it be surprising that over the course of 100 innings (Rogers last three seasons) a relievers FIP and ERA are far apart? I don’t believe so. Which should be trusted more looking forward? I think the research says FIP is a better predictor. In Rogers case his walk rate is low, his strike out rate is strong and he isn’t giving up home runs. I want that reliever on my team in late innings.

Fair question. The focus should be on 2022 now but they will need to add a catcher this winter. That part of the question doesn’t need an answer now. As for injuries I would guess most teams would have depth trouble at catcher. The Guardians ran into depth trouble and picked up Sandy Leon for cash. He was recently DFA’d again. I would guess the Twins would have to do something similar if they were not confident in the defense of their AAA options.

I agree. That is why it is difficult to find a match. The Orioles if they decide they want to stay relevant are the only team that might be a match. In Urshela’s case there really aren’t enough teams needing help at 3B. A three way deal with the Twins seeing Urshela to a team in need and that team sending a prospect to a seller who in turn sends Minnesota a reliever might be more realistic. The Twins could improve the return by adding a prospect to that selling team.

It was a really good take on the first pitch forcing Hader more into the zone with two on base.

The Padres are 31-5 in games that Rogers has appeared including 3-1 in his 4 bad July games where his ERA went from 2.84 to 4.04. In those 4 games where he has given up 6 runs in 4 innings his ERA is 13.50 and his FIP is 1.86. In those 4 games he has given up 0 walks and 0 home runs with 4 strike outs throwing 67% strikes. If the Twins could manage to find a reliever that can go 4 games without giving up a home run or walk I hope our defense would do a better job of managing balls in play than the .588 BABIP the Padres have given up in those 4 games. He did give up 10 hits and 4 were described as balls to the deep OF. The others were ground balls or balls to the short OF. Does that context change anyone’s thought about the turn in Rogers’ season? Perhaps it could have been added to the original post for consideration.

Jose Miranda appears ready to take over 3B for the next several years. Is it time to make that move now? Gio Urshela has value to this team. He has a 107 OPS+ and plays a reliable third base. There are several teams that are not getting that production out of their 3B. Miranda can slide over to 3B and play nearly every day. The depth at 3B would take a hit as they would have Arraez and Gordon behind him with Steer at AAA. With the return of Miguel Sano the Twins might have the depth to trade him. Urshela would have more trade value to a team with his glove at 3B and control through next year than Sano. There are a few teams that might be a match. Unfortunately the Angels looked like the best match with the Rendon injury but they played themselves out of it. A trade of Urshela for Tepera might have helped both teams. The Orioles are in it. They have not received production from their 3B. They have some relievers to send. They don't have relievers with a comparable contract though. The Twins would need to add cash and a prospect to make that deal work. The Mets have Escobar playing everyday and struggling. He has an triple slash of 151/185/302 in the last month. Would they see Urshela as an upgrade? Would they part with someone like Lugo? They would probably compete for Drury first. The Dodgers use Turner at DH quite a bit. The thirdbasemen that have started the other those games in Muncy and Alberto haven't hit. Would they see Urshela as an upgrade when Turner is DH? I think they would just win a deal for Drury without parting with a bullpen piece. Any trade with the Dodgers would have to be a three way deal. I was hoping to find more possible homes for Urshela. Did I miss any? I think the best bet is a deal with the Orioles adding cash and a perhaps prospect for one of their set up men. The fan base experiencing .500 ball for the first time in a long time wouldn't see it as a straight sell. Urshela would give them a steady playoff experienced league average veteran at 3B. The Twins would get much needed help in their pen.

It depends on whether you want to look forward or backward, if you want to look back ERA and WPA tell a good story of a players contribution. If you want to look forward K% and BB% have a strong year to year correlation. They are the basis for several varied ERA estimators like FIP and xFIP. I think WHIP fits better in the first category. It correlates well with ERA but does not have a great year to year correlation or correlate well with future ERA. As for the trade I want the Twins to add to the top of the pen or rotation and push everyone down a slot. Kuhl and Colomé aren’t near that level and not pitchers I want to see starting a game against the Yankees or coming in the 8th to face the middle of the line up. The Twins need to go big and pay up.

You must have meant Ryan or Gray. Bundy has the most innings pitched and the most starts with at least 5 innings on the staff. He has 11. Ryan and Gray have combined for 14. I don’t think I would want Winder in the long relief role. They don’t get used enough. It gets to the fifth inning and then the rest of the pen is used to get to the end. An effective mid game multiple inning reliever will be helpful.

If the context of quality of opponent were factored in would the batted ball profile look better? Most pitchers in his role face a more difficult sample of hitters and it can skew the percentile ranks.

He is worthy of a roster spot. They should not count on him to be a playoff caliber late inning pitcher. They need to make some trades.

I am not advocating for trading Kepler because I don’t think he is easily replaced. The road to trading him would probably be a three team deal. The Dodgers are rumored for Benintendi as are the Yankees. Maybe the one that loses out would want Kepler and then send prospects to a third team like the Orioles who would send pitching help to the Twins.

I think Duffey had 4 relief appearances without giving up a run. He certainly was helpful in the three wins. That has to be a highlight. Bundy had the best start of the week against the White Sox and the best start of the Rangers series. I am thankful both are still on the roster.

How does Banuelos compare to Rortvedt? I think both profile good glove and poor bat.

Thanks for the look at 2022. I did a quick look 2010-2019 and don’t think Andrus can be random. I also looked in 1985. Turns out the Cardinals were below the middle likely due to to many switch hitters. It did illustrate how it happens less frequently now than in 1985 when it was more than double the frequency of HBP. I did find a historical study from retrosheet.

What would be the point of starting a topic if I have already a strong opinion? There is nothing to learn there. I will always push against the conventional view though. There is nothing to learn without pushing against the conventional either. I am not convinced that reaching on base by error is more random than hit by pitch. It does happen less frequently now though. In my quick scan of the BR leaderboard (shows top 20) I did notice Elvis Andrus among the leaders in reaching on base by error every year from 2010 to 2019 with the exception of the year he finished 29th in baseball. I don’t think that can be random. Similar to the characteristics of a player who gets hit by pitch more often Andrus must have characteristics that lead to reaching base by error more often. I also appreciate your engagement in the discussion as you did in a previous thread where I challenged the conventional thought about pitchers the third time through the line up.

Do you believe it is more random than hit by pitch? It could be. Donaldson is slow and gets on base by error more often than many. I don’t think it is random but I also don’t think speed is the only factor. Hard contact is going to cause more errors. Hitting to the third base side will cause more errors. Putting the ball in play more often will increase the likelihood of reaching base by error. Are those skills particular to hitters? If so than I think some players have the skill to reach base by error more often than others.

As Buxton reached base on error again yesterday it had me wondering again about whether this is a skill. Is it reaching base as a result of an error simply random or does the skill of the hitter have some impact? Buxton leads the team in reaching on base by error this year with 4. I get the speed but would have expected someone with more ground ball outs to get on base more often by error. Adding those 4 and his OBP is increased by 15 (.015). That isn't insignificant. There are three players who have reached base by error 3 times in Kepler, Celestino and Gordon. Kepler gets a boost of 10 in OBP but it is the other two that I am interested in. It might change my perception of their offensive contribution. If reaching base by error is in part skill of the batter it should be reflected in their OBP and OPS. It certainly seems intuitive that faster runners are more likely to get on base by error. It also might tend to be ground ball hitters or hitters who hit the ball hard. I wondered how reaching base by error might change my perception of Gordon and Celestino if it were treated similarly in the statistics to a hit by pitch. Gordon's OBP goes from 312 to 328. His OPS would be 760. Celestino's OBP goes from 342 to 362. His OPS would be 715. Those are significant shifts. Is it luck or skill? Should reaching base by error be considered in their contribution to the offense?

The roster spot will work out if they believe his bat will help. Have they moved Larnach to the 60 day? He went in the IL on June 24. He has a 6 week recovery from the surgery June 27. That is 45 days and he will need a lengthy rehab.

There might be an argument that Hamilton will be more effective than someone currently in the pen. That bar isn’t very high. The bar for the relievers they need is much higher. They need to add to the top of the pen.

Catchers take time to develop. The responsibility of the game plan and knowing the opposing batters as well as the 30 some pitchers he will catch for the Twins this year is not insignificant. Garver spent the most of his age 25 season in AA. Stuart Turner was the primary catcher. Garvercaught 60 games splitting between C and 1B. He posted an OPS of .764. Patience is needed.

It really doesn’t feel like you have read my thoughts. This thread has taken many interesting and unintended directions about the Twins move to take out Bundy, It isn’t about millions of data points. It isn’t about whether or not Bundy should have remained in the game. It is about whether the data cited truly support the motion that batters have an advantage when they see a pitcher the third time in the game. My contention is that this data is misunderstood and misused. The main factor driving a poorer OPS a pitcher has the third time through is simply the quality of opponent in the population of that sample. It is heavily skewed towards the top of the line up. It should not be surprising that Bundy’s OPS against for hitters 1-2 in the line up is .957 and the OPs against of 7-9 is .601. No one says it because it is obvious. The batters at the top of the line up are are far superior. That sample of the third time through is made up of a bunch of 1-2 hitters and hardly any of the 7-9. That skew in the sample gives the false impression that the third time a pitcher faces the top of order is somehow different than the first two times.