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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I think it is a better plan than going with a Happ, Shoemaker, Bailey or even a Hill. If you sign one of those pitchers you are hoping to squeeze out one more year of health and back end rotation performance. If you pay one of those guys enough money is invested that you keep starting them in spite of poor results. Yes. Go with three inexperienced young starters. Be ready to flip them with some of the other near ready young starters in the minors. I would go with their upside.
  2. jorgenswest
    I suspect they are seeking a top 50 pitching prospect to headline a Montas deal. The Twins aren’t a good match here. They may not find that match and come back to the Twins but I would want prime pitching prospects for Montas.
  3. jorgenswest
    If there is a role where he can regularly get major league hitters out we need him in that role.
  4. jorgenswest
    Rortvedt was likely not ready to hit well enough this year if ever. If an automated strike zone issued next year does that change the value of a defense only catcher?
  5. jorgenswest
    This is the Jack Morris deal on steroids. I like how that one worked out.
  6. jorgenswest
    Really good move. There we’re 25 teams that passed on Petty and there is little data since to say they made a mistake. The history of the 26th pick produced one career star in Trammell and one very good career in Dave Henderson. Plesac was a good reliever for quite a while. Those are the three success stories in the 57 year history of pick 26. This is a very good trade.
  7. jorgenswest
    We also need to put a cost on the lost 40 man roster spot given to Henriquez. Henriquez on the 40 will result in someone being DFA’d that otherwise would not have been removed. Henriquez has almost no trade value because of his roster status. Similar players will be DFA’d and the Rangers likely assessed that they were going to lose him at some point this year.
  8. jorgenswest
    For his 236 innings at SS Polanco contributed 1.1 WAR in spite of below average defense. In 1360 innings Falefa contributed 2.3 WAR thanks to his glove. Polanco’s bat out trumps Falefa’s glove here in a big way. The 2019 line up was awesome because of the contribution of Garver and Polanco at catcher and shortstop. The 2022 line up with Arraez, Garver and Polanco would have been difficult from 1 to 9. Bullpens would be taxed and thinned by the last game of the series. The 2022 line up now looks to have weak bats at 8 and 9. I get the injury risk to Polanco playing him at SS and the injury risk to Garver. It is that the upside of healthy seasons from them that was the path to winning the central. Instead they chose the safety of mediocrity. The Rangers with Falefa as their SS for nearly every inning ranked 19th at SS last year. I would expect the same safe mediocre neighborhood this year.
  9. jorgenswest
    If the Twins are looking for a shortstop or catcher next off season I hope it is new leadership doing the search.
  10. jorgenswest
    Chris Bassitt is 33 years old with ZIPS WAR projections of 2.2, 1.8 and 1.6 the next three years. How long do we want to extend him? How much should we pay to extend to those projections or give up for the 2.2 next year? Kikuchi’s projections are similar.
  11. jorgenswest
    I guess it depends on whether they can sign someone like Rodon. A trade for Bassitt might move the projection by 2 wins maybe less if compared to signing Pineda instead. Is that enough movement to give up pant significant prospect?
  12. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it would be wise to give up prospect assets for one year of control. I suppose they could trade for Bassitt and then flip him for a hopefully similar return at the deadline.
  13. jorgenswest
    The high upside lineup play is to start Garver at catcher as much as reasonable. Perez led the league with 120 starts at catcher. That may not be reasonable. Aiming for 100 seems reasonable. Aiming for another 30-40 starts at DH will give him plenty of at bats in a healthy season. I suppose you could argue that they have a better chance at a healthy season and more at bats if he reduced his catcher load. I would still go for the upside. The Twins will need to hit on the upside in several places to be relevant this year.
  14. jorgenswest
    It was either going to be lock out now or strike later in the season threatening playoffs. I will take the lockout now. They will play eventually. Meanwhile I was was at a high school baseball last weekend. The close game was entertaining and hard fought. Baseball is a great game whether at the high school level or major league level. I don’t know if the advice about getting out and watching other levels of baseball was sincere or not but I will be finding a game and getting my fill.
  15. jorgenswest
    I think a ban will result in unintended and unforeseen consequences. I can’t see the unforeseen but I do have a thought on one consequence I don’t want. The shifting has most impact on upper cut pull hitters. The same players helping to drive the strike out rates up and balls in play down. If shifting is banned we will see more of these one dimensional hitters who will fare better in those conditions. Let the game adjust to the shift and produce more bat control line drive hitters who use the whole field and bring more speed to the game. We don’t need a rule change to fix this. We need teams that can recognize the talent and skills to beat it.
  16. jorgenswest
    In the era of shifting is team defense ranking more valuable than the individual pieces. The Twins have had one year in the last three where their defense as a team finished in the top half whether by DRS or UZR and that was 2020 when they ranked 8th and 10th. Last year they ranked 28th by UZR and 12th by DRS. It was 25 and 23 in 2019. In 2020 the most common middle infield was Arraez at 2B and Polanco at SS. Maybe the best place is 2B.
  17. jorgenswest
    Do you believe that the Twins would be making a mistake starting Martin over Palacios at SS? Perhaps Palacios is closer to major league ready. Is it based on your assessment that he outplayed Martin? Is that from seeing them play or interpreting the data?
  18. jorgenswest
    I am listening here but maybe not convinced yet. My thinking is to acquire a pitcher like Montas at a prospect cost similar to that we acquired for Berrios. That would effectively give them an extra year given the pitcher has 2023 control. I have no interest in trading prospects for a pitcher like Bassitt who has one year of control. I suppose you could be of the mind that they should just wait to acquire a Montas type next year and that will be a lower prospect cost buying just one year. Why just toss 2022 though? The Twins have one projection (from PECOTA) of 84 wins. Would Montas push that projection into the 87-88 range? That might get them in the playoffs and certainly would make for a more entertaining season. On the other hand projections in the mid to upper 70s is probably more reasonable and Montas doesn’t do enough at that point. Maybe I ought to change my thinking here.
  19. jorgenswest
    When camps open spring training will be short. There will be a need for arms. This presents an opportunity for players like Yenier Cano, Devin Smeltzer, Dereck Rodriguez, Trevor Megill and others to seize the moment and win a spot on a major league roster. They are too old to be classified prospects but we should be paying attention.
  20. jorgenswest
    I don’t see making a trade for Montas as musical chairs. The years of control are not the same and I want that 2023 season. If would trade Berrios’ last two months if 2021 for Montas’ full 2023 season.
  21. jorgenswest
    One wonder I have about trades is whether teams are working those now ready to announce them as an agreement is reached.
  22. jorgenswest
    I agree although the author chose to put “Raw Deal” in the title which is sure to bring out more emotion from readers and hence more views and responses. “It would be nice to see a full season from Royce Lewis” wouldn’t bait more readers to join in the discussion.
  23. jorgenswest
    Lewis, Greene, Gore, McKay and Wright were the top 5. It was a bad year to have a number 1 pick.
  24. jorgenswest
    There were a few sobering reports at the time of the trade. There was reasonable concern about home runs as well as pitching with runners on base. He didn’t allow many runners on base in the minors but was hit much harder with runners on base. The comps to his pitching style and release from Eno Sarris were Ben Lively and Yusmeiro Petit. In any case he is ready to be in a major league rotation today. That is a great return for two months of a DH.
  25. jorgenswest
    The better question would be is Buxton’s extension a mistake. My answer to that is no. I am pretty sure in that moment of signing I didn’t believe any of Kepler, Polanco or Sano was a mistake. Sano’s hasn’t paid off but the upside of that deal was real. They could avoid the risk of a mistake in hindsight by never doing anything. I don’t think they take enough risk. In that frame I hope they risk making more mistakes. I like the upside of the Buxton contract in spite of the risk. I felt the same with Sano.
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