jorgenswest

I am not worried about his walk rate. It isn’t unusual for pitchers who dominate in the minors to have higher walk rates. Minor league batters can’t put the ball in play so there are many more deep counts which result in more walks. In fact I find really low walk rates to be more of a concern. Those weak balls in play in the minors turn into solid contact in the majors. In 120 batters faced Moran has decided the outcome (with a strike out or walk) on 66 of them (55%). That is dominance.

I never expected that Target Field would be the difference between a team that ranked in the bottom quartile according to revenue to a team that could keep all of the their free agents. It moved them into the third quartile and appears to have allowed one big contract in Mauer and then Donaldson. My only expectation is that their payroll rank is at least as high as their revenue rank. If they can trade Donaldson and recapture enough to give be able to keep Buxton and/or Berrios that would be my preference.

The challenge is to identify prospects in other organizations that are not seen as top prospects but develop beyond expectations, Cleveland’s trade for Kluber is an example. It is also an example of patience. They traded for him in 2010 at 24. He was up for a cup of coffee in 2011 and struggled mightily in twelve 2012 starts. By 2013 he was a league average pitcher and 2014 dominant. From the outside I don’t know if it was dumb luck or their scout’s ability to identify talent or their development but his development was not foreseen in the press at the time of the trade. They also traded for Carlos Carrasco at the deadline in 2009. He was the number 68 ranked prospect heading into the season and was struggling in the minors that season with a 5.73 ERA at the time of the trade. Between 2009-2013 he struggled in 40 starts (as well as 8 in relief) as he bounced back and forth to the minors and dealt with injuries. He was a valuable piece of the rotation by the end of 2014. The Bauer trade was in 2012. He was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. It was 2016 before he was a very good pitcher in the majors. It took Cliff Lee to get him who was seen as the best pitcher available at the deadline. Identifying and developing pitching is going to take patience. It is also a path for a small to mid market team towards a sustained competitive window. Can we wait 5 years for this season’s trades to pay off? Can we invest innings into young pitching that will struggle early on? I don’t think the Twins have an alternative towards that contending window. I think they can hope to be competitive but not really contend by patching by continually hoping to squeeze on more year out of a veteran pitcher. Does it mean that the close starts now? No. They have Duran, Canterino, Winder, Alcala, Ober and Balazovic. They will need time in the majors to struggle but I think all can be ready to start that struggle by next year. It is easy to dismiss Dobnak and Thorpe based on their performance but it is not unusual to have significant struggles early in a pitching career. It requires a staff that recognizes the talent beneath the struggle and then invest innings.

I keep him. He may be a fourth outfielder but fourth outfielders will get a lot of at bats. There is no reason to sell low.

Donaldson can be valuable to a contending team. He needs to be healthy and the team needs a contending core. He wasn’t healthy last year when they needed him and they are a long way from contending with their pitching this year and next. I would move him soon before he is injured again. Miranda’s best spot is 3B and Donaldson isn’t nearly as valuable at DH.

I am not as confident in Wes Johnson. He seemed to work miracles with Tyler Duffey. Look at the whiff percentage on his fastballs by season. Before Wes his fastball was mediocre to poor. 13.1, 13.6, 18.6, 17.3 2019-2020 it was outstanding with XBAs under .200 30.2, 29.5 In 2021 it is back to the start of his career. 15.2 What changed when Wes arrived? Was it tunneling? Fastball location? What is different this year that the whiff rate has returned to pre-Wes levels?

As for age Earl Battey is still my favorite player and I do not want the Twins to throw away the next three years. In order for this small to mid market team to achieve success an truly contend for a World Series they will need inexpensive team controlled pitching. Pitching is too expensive to build through free agency. I think I they throw away next year and delay that pursuit by signing more Hill’s and Happ’s and Colome’s and Robles’. I acknowledge that they would need those types of signings to be competitive but I want a team that contends. My plan would be to sell off everything. Many of those pieces are not going to get a top prospect and we will need to rely on the front office to identify those middling to unknown prospects as Falvey’s Cleveland team did. Now is the time to trade anyone not under control in 2023. Buxton and Berrios are the exceptions as I would pay up to extend them. I am not throwing away 2022 but using it to begin laying the foundation for the future. The Twins opened this last window without a foundation of starting pitching and instead patched with annual free agent patches. The window closed abruptly without that foundation. It was fun while it lasted but time to acknowledge that it has closed.

Fair enough. So basically you wouldn't pick Kirilloff or Larnach or Sabato but would go with a pitcher or someone who will stay up the middle. I wouldn't limit myself.

You might not get both but the Twins are trading two post seasons of Berrios and a comp pick. The comp pick has value.

How about Pearson and Hiraldo from the Jays? It is listed as a minor overpay on the Jays part.

I think they better go with whoever they think can make an impact. They draft 26, 36 and 61. Since 1965 the best pitcher ever drafted in the 26th spot is Dan Plesac. There are three others with a positive career WAR (Jeremy Bonderman, Kelly Wunsch and Bryan Morris). On the brighter side Randy Johnson was drafted in the 36th slot. He is one of just three players with more than 10 career WAR from the 36th spot. Jesse Crain is the 4th ranked player picked at 61. It is really hard to draft well outside of the first few picks. I don't think they would be wise to narrow their chances even more by restricting themselves to pitchers, shortstops and centerfielders.

He is valuable. He is inexpensive. I would keep him short of getting a good starting pitching prospect back.

on 2011… In Baker’s two starts prior to deadline (July 23 and 28) he pitched 12 innings, gave up 2 runs, struck out 9 and walked 1. His pitched 7 innings and threw 97 pitches in that July 28 start. The likelihood that a number 32 draft choice will be successful is very small. There are 6 players drafted in that slot since 1965 with more than 10 career WAR. Three more will likely get there. The Twins can’t expect a comp pick to be a Berrios. There is much greater likelihood that an established good prospect will have a career. The Twins probably got lucky with Luke Bard also. His career WAR of 0.2 ranks 12th in his draft slot since 1965. Many do do not close to the majors. Should the Twins count on getting a Berrios back as a comp pick? The two players where comp picks are possible are Buxton and Berrios. I would pay up to sign them to extensions. Can they even count on comp picks with the uncertainty of the agreement with the union? Looking forward I would sell off now. I would sell off expiring contracts. I would sell Donaldson if it meant either getting back prospects or retaining at least 16 million to spend on Buxton and Berrios. I would sell high on Rogers rather than pay for his decline. I would have sold off Garver also but not sure when he will return as a catcher and I think he has little value as a 1B/DH. I am trading for prospects and starting the rebuild. I don’t think it is possible to build a World Series contending pitching staff for 2022 and while being in the hunt for a wild card is possible it isn’t my long term goal. My goal is a World Series pitching staff and that can’t happen until they have a foundation of home grown pitching.

I think the season to learn from is 2011. Their pitching was old and second from the bottom (to the Orioles) in league ERA. They believed their competitive window was still open and the decisions they made lengthened the time they spent on the bottom. They tried to reload. For 2012 they added veteran Jason Marquis on a team friendly deal. They tried to squeeze another year out of Carl Pavano. They added 30+ arms Jared Burton and Jeff Gray to the bullpen. Scott Diamond was a rule 5 patch that seemed to help. On offense they added 30+ Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll(38!) killing any thought of preventing runs with the glove. They also brought in Jeff Burroughs. They couldn’t see that it was over. Yes… trading Perkins, Pavano, Cuddyer, Kubel, Baker and even Mauer would have angered the fan base in a new park. All of those players were near or older than 30. They certainly would be in decline before the pitching could be fixed. Hindsight on my part is easy here. We need a front office with foresight. They need to put aside their own need to win now to keep their job for the longer term outlook of the franchise. They need to see that this window has closed. They need too much pitching and it can’t be fixed with Marquis or Happ or Burton or Robles. They need to aggressively sell and they need to go through the growing pains of young pitching for a few years. They need to commit to starting their young pitching. Giving Liam Hendricks 28 starts spread over three years is not a commitment to his development. They need to sell.

They have an issue. I think they have chosen to go with veterans than trusting their own prospects. Individually the moves can all be explained. Cave over Wade. The assessment had to be that Cave was the better backup CF (my eyes don’t see it but analytics support it). Celestino over Baddoo. Keeping both on the 40 man is a challenge when the spots are so valuable on a team that believes the contending window is open. Center field won out here. Gil and Ynoa. I think it comes down to the same thought that they would need to be on the 40 long before they would trust them to help in the major leagues. I don’t think Gil had ever even made a Seth Stoh’s prospect handbook when he had been traded. I get that the window looks to be opening in 2017 and certainly appeared wide open in 2019-2020. The window has closed. They need to make decisions betting on the long term futures of guys like Baddoo and Gil rather the short term need of a bullpen arm or bench bat.

Happy Birthday Jose Miranda!

The only quote that I can find directly from Byron is the one above where he acknowledges being upset about not getting called up and also says he wants to end his career as a Twin. What else has he said that leads us to believe he has a strong desire to leave? Is it possible it is noise that his agent or even the Twins inject as part of the negotiation process? Is it in the interest of the Twins to feed someone like Reusse off hand remarks like he might not be happy? Would it help when he leaves to have a narrative of he didn’t want to be here? It may be a good baseball decision from a mid to small market team to let him move on rather than pay up. Game changing center fielders (and number 2 pitchers) are going to get big pay days. Buxton may well leave but the only narrative should be that the Twins chose not to pay up for an elite frequently injured centerfielder.

While I have no trouble finding a “might be” from Reusse i have a hard time finding words from Buxton that indicate he doesn’t want to be here. This is from 2018 after they did not call him up in September. I will take those words as stated without trying to read into them my own biases. Buxton has been fantastic since. There has always been an offer that exists where he would have signed an extension. The Twins haven’t been willing to make that offer instead hoping for something team friendly. The same goes for Berrios. Both are betting on themselves and I think both will win that bet. I would pay for both with 2023-2025 in mind while accepting the reality that the current window has closed and won’t reopen again until the Twins develop their own starting pitching. The two will be the foundation of the next window.

One from a Fangraphs chat… Nate Pearson for Berrios. The Blue Jays get 2 shots at a postseason with Berrios plus a comp pick if he leaves (depending on future union agreement). Twins get 6 years of one of the better pitching prospects taking the risk that he follows the Alex Meyer path.

The Twins should trade expiring contracts. They traded two months of Liriano and received a 23 year old Escobar. It took a while to realize that return but he was worth many times the two months of Liriano in a lost season. They traded two months of Escobar in a lost season and Duran is a very good prospect. They also received de la Trinidad who has a .933 OPS in AA. Maciel doesn’t look like he will make it but as a fast athletic centerfielder at 22 there is still hope the bat will develop. If they are presented the option of a younger high ceiling guys a few years away or low ceiling players ready next year I will take the younger players and wait hopefully on the upside. This is a lost season. They need to move the expiring contracts.

Buxton. Buxton will have a year where he plays 140 or more games and leads his team to success in the playoffs. I hope it is the Twins. The Twins really need to pay for both. It might mean trying to unload Donaldson’s contract. It might mean paying up starting in 2022 and needing to let go of Rogers contract as well as not replacing a Cruz. if only one it has to be Buxton. He is the difference maker.

Seems like the return is in line. Hopefully with competition for Cruz the return will be more. The most recent trade I found for a possible comp DH is Beltran to the Rangers in 2016. The Rangers parted with more to get him. Two other rental bats that moved in the last five years were Nick Castellanos to the Cubs (return was similar to those above) and JD Martinez (return somewhat better). I am sure the ability to play OF opened up more competition for their services.

The Twins should not pay for his decline. Keep him through age 31 if they want but do not extend. According to baseball reference the most similar pitcher is Sean Doolittle. He was very good through age 31 and mediocre or injured since. The A’s traded him at 30 and got back a good reliever in Treinen and a good prospect in Luzardo.

The window for contending has closed. To contend for a World Series they need more pitching than they can afford. Minimally they needs number 1 , a number 4, a closer and two other good bullpen arms. They will also need a bat. I get that they can be competitive next year with less but next year should be about the expected growing pains of a young staff as they transition from the oldest staff in the AL. Extend Buxton and Berrios. Front load if necessary. Go through the growing pains of a young team.

They won’t be able to sign him to a fair or reasonable contract. They will need to pay a premium on that fair deal. Berrios’ motivation to sign is the same for any pitcher. Pitchers risk injury that can keep them out of baseball for long stretches. Berrios will have motivation to sign.