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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    The same offense that has scored 3 runs or fewer in nearly half their games? Is it actually "clueless," to point out that the Twins lead all of baseball in strikeouts? Yeah, K rates have risen, but this team is an extreme version of that. Arraez is sitting at .382/.437/.478 right now; he's probably not a great example of Miami's offensive issues. But whining about the whining....
  2. KirbyDome89
    No doubt that trio has been bad, but they don't have a Pagan-esque track record of being awful. If the Twins are handing the ball to any one of those guys 4 years into being a negative value player the mobs will probably be just as active. Pagan as the victim of a rabid fan base, particularly this team's, is a weird spin for me.
  3. KirbyDome89
    And if that holds, ok, that's probably the best case scenario, but I don't think that's what the angst is really about right? The Twins are 23rd in BP innings right now. The SP is ripe for regression, and with that comes more innings for the pen. Maybe (hopefully) they've got things a bit more sorted out when that starts to hit, but right now there's way too much flux in spots 4-8 (or 5-8 if we want to add Thielbar) for me to believe the pen, as currently constructed, can tread water at league average for another 100+ games, hence the concern. Maybe they get lucky and this is 2019 all over again where the top end stays remarkably healthy and turns in multiple elite performances, but that's a tough bet.
  4. KirbyDome89
    Logic would dictate that a broader SS tells a better story, i.e. we don't need to pretend his last three seasons haven't been disasters. You said nearly the same thing after his last meltdown, but I think the number was 12 IP at that time. I don't see why we're sliding the goalposts all the way to clubhouse glue guy to justify hanging on here.
  5. KirbyDome89
    No doubt it's not a great situation, and you didn't have to squint in the offseason to see it playing out this way. Yeah, I'd cycle Pagan's spot and like you said, hope somebody grabs that job. They're going to have to hand hold either way, so IMO you might as well get a head start.
  6. KirbyDome89
    The issue is that Moran and Sands fit this description (maybe minus the "perfectly," that preceded fine) as well. Sure, you need somebody who can eat up innings over the course of a season, but you can't carry three guys who have zero business handling any type of leverage. We have no clue what De Leon is, and Brock Stewart has issued 9 free passes in 9.2 innings. Those are the 4/5? Idk if I'd wait until the deadline to address Pagan's role. If they're just going to spoon feed him the lowest possible leverage I'd start the auditions early.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Probably because Jax hasn't been one of the worst relief pitchers in baseball the previous three seasons.
  8. KirbyDome89
    Confirmed, they're 28th in BB/9 as a unit. Jax and his above average walk rate are actually part of the problem.
  9. KirbyDome89
    Pretty sure their bullpen has one of the worst BB/9 in baseball.
  10. KirbyDome89
    Joe Ryan started 2 minor league games for the Twins before being called up. Are we really going to credit this club with developing him? Ober has finished 4/5 of his professional seasons with 60-80ish IP. The one season he eclipsed that mark he peaked at just over 100 IP. That's any pitcher? Idk what Varland is/will be, but I don't see much reason to gush over a career that's sub 50 IP with an average K rate and a FIP pushing 5. To call him a developmental hit at this point, eh... The Twins got 11 good starts in a 60 game season. Maeda has been ineffective or hurt the last 2+ years. I doubt Dodgers fans or their FO are upset they received, at minimum, a solid BP arm under control for the next 4 years in exchange for 2 months of high tier starts. Miami's team stats are irrelevant; Arraez is killing it down there and the Twins are starting Donovan Solano and Willie Castro in the IF. The Mahle trade has been a disaster. They gambled on a guy trying to come back from shoulder issues, and those same issues immediately resurfaced. The Paddack/Pagan trade saga is over. They opted to resign Pagan and they extended Paddack. All in for the 1 season of Pagan + 5 Paddack starts over 2 years it hasn't been good. Yeah, I think we do need to ask that question, because by my count, depending on where your allegiances lay, the MN/LA swap can go either way, the Mahle and Paddack trades were busts, the Sonny Gray trade is tbd, and Ryan trade was an absolute W. 7 deep with an 8th spot rotating? Does Kenta have a timetable for return right now? Even if he does, that's 6, who's your 7th? SWR? I doubt the Twins want him anywhere near major league hitters right now. 8th?
  11. KirbyDome89
    Yeah, it should matter how/why these guys are acquired, unless you think slogging through another last place finish a la 2021, and hoping you can flip a 41 year old DH for a young SP is repeatable. The Twins didn't turn Ryan into anything, he was a finished product when they got him. It was a great trade, and I've already said he's valuable, but that deal is a one-off. The Twins don't have to have a stable of starting pitchers developed, but we're 7 years deep at this point and we're crossing our fingers on a guy who has never shown the ability to stay healthy and we're declaring Varland a success with fewer than 50 career IP. There's a middle ground somewhere between that and "be the Rays," right? Your farm system is a finite resource, and they aren't just giving up bats; pitching went out the door in the deals for Maeda, Mahle, and Gray. What's the downside to relying on trades? By definition you're giving up talent to acquire talent, hence my pushback against idea that this team is mining value. Give me sustainable, long term results over 6 weeks to open the season I guess.
  12. KirbyDome89
    Yeah I'm not arguing that Gray isn't a good pitcher. You're right, and I'm not hoarding prospects here, I just don't think acquiring all 5 of your opening day starters via trade in a 2-3 year period is exploiting untapped value. To me it signifies a lack of development and a rigid approach to FA which is why I don't think we should celebrate it.
  13. KirbyDome89
    He's had a great start; it's also May 16th. The Twins had to ship off a 1st round draft pick for two seasons of Gray. If value is the priority, I'm skeptical that controllable talent for short term rentals is the best way to find it. Then there's the whole sustainability issue to boot. Not sure where I was whining about ace pitching.
  14. KirbyDome89
    Varland has 49 career innings, and he's sitting at a 5.13 FIP right now. Ober is one more extended IL stint away from serious bullpen consideration. Those are the developmental hits? Ryan is the only swap that sticks out as "value," and it took a TSF 2.0 for that deal to become a reality. The constant need to trade for short term pitching solutions isn't something I'd celebrate. There will always be a rationale for why moves are made, that doesn't mean those decisions were the right ones, i.e. it's entirely fair to evaluate these swaps based on how they work out.
  15. KirbyDome89
    Yes, it's constantly brought up as some kind of aww shucks type of defense. Even this article has the obligatory "thank god we didn't trade for Montas," paragraph where Castillo is a mere footnote. Failed development, an overreliance on awful FA SP signings, and trading for a SP with an injury red flag all preceded the move for Mahle last year. Then there's the issue, which has already been stated, of trading for another starter with injury concerns at the deadline. It feels like there are layers of poor decision making here.
  16. KirbyDome89
    Which is why framing this discussion as "Montas, Mahle, or nothing," is so irritating.
  17. KirbyDome89
    Yeah, I wouldn't be rushing to extend him; I don't think the potential talent/performance payoff is worth the risk.
  18. KirbyDome89
    Yeah I never once thought he looked dominant during the game. He threw nearly 100 pitches, and only about half of them were strikes. He was giving up more than 1 hit per inning coming into the game; couple that with his control issues and it's unreal that a team would only threaten to score in two times in seven innings.
  19. KirbyDome89
    Master-class pitching duel is probably overstating it a bit. Cleveland is arguably the worst offensive team in all of baseball right now, and the Twins struggles are well documented. Quantrill is an incredibly hittable pitcher, and he lacked command for a good part of the game this afternoon.
  20. KirbyDome89
    Set an over/under and we'll make a wager. They're 12 games under .500 right now. It'll take months of 90+ win baseball to get to .500 plus they'll need to maintain that by winning half of their games for another 2-3 months.
  21. KirbyDome89
    The top end guys could, simultaneously, have career years, work a high number of innings, and carry the pen a la 2019. Is that what you want to bank on? I never said this pen had to be great, but if you're going to carry two guys who are borderline unusable outside of games already out of reach + a third who hasn't pitched particularly well in limited innings, you can't also expect your top half to continue averaging less than 1 inning per appearance. Something has to give. It's difficult enough to hide one arm over 162 games, let alone 3, hence my concern about poor outings even if they happen to occur during a relatively easy W.
  22. KirbyDome89
    Eh, Pagan is the same guy he was last year; he just will not stop allowing baserunners. Moran can't really be trusted either. It's an incredibly SSS for Winder but he hasn't looked good anywhere to start the year. Maybe he's "shaking off some rust," but he doesn't have a track record that inspires a ton of confidence. I have no idea who or what Brock Stewart is. That's half the bullpen. None of the guys in the top half are throwing multiple innings per outing, at least right now. I'm bothered by wobbly appearances, even if they occur during a semi blowout against a AAA team.
  23. KirbyDome89
    It's a near impossibility they'll be out of the race in the AL Central by the deadline.
  24. KirbyDome89
    I think that's our answer; they likely won't have to worry about the difficulties of maintaining that 6 man rotation for a large part of the season. I'd kick that can as far down the road as I could and if it got to the point where the number of starters in the rotation is "a good problem to have," then you make a decision.
  25. KirbyDome89
    I wouldn't even bother with sending Ober back to St. Paul, I think he needs to stay in the rotation until he's either hurt (likely) or proves he doesn't belong (unlikely) amongst the starting group. My faith in his ability to reach that 120 inning threshold is slim, and even if he were to hit it this year, we'll be having this same discussion for at least another few seasons until he proves he can consistently reach that nominal mark. The worst case is that Maeda fades (either performance or stamina) and Ober isn't available. Get what you can from both of these guys right now, and figure out the rest later. Saving bullets so to speak doesn't make much sense to me when one or two good/decent months bookended by pretty meh baseball might be all it takes to win this awful division.
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