mike8791

CHPettit 19: " http://he Twins are currently tied for 11th in MLB in runs scored. So suggesting the offense can't compete next year seems a little more pessimistic than necessary" Not arguing with these numbers, but I think a few high scoring games( 8 games/96 runs) skews this performance. Those numbers indicate they scored an average of 4 R/G in the other 98. I realize you can say this for any team but the lack of consistent offense has plagued this team. Just too many low scoring affairs where the Twins RISP % was poor. To me this reflects an all or nothing lineup - lots of HRs(3rd in the majors) but can't string together hits. With Cruz gone, Twins offense going forward is still a question mark. At best, this looks like a league average offense, better if some of the newcomers advance, worse if injuries/trades remove Bux and Donaldson from decent ABs. No question pitching dragged this team down more than offense, but neither is at contender level right now.

Just saw a note from Ken Rosenthal on The Athletic that Twins view Martin as a future CF despite not yet having the arm strength for an OF spot. While I, too, am very high on this guy's bat, I am very puzzled by this statement. If Martin is slotted in for CF, where does that leave Buxton? Is this an indication they don't plan on signing Bux? Also, the team's top 2 prospects, Lewis and Martin, are apparently not viewed as big league SSs. Nor are Polanco, Miranda or Arraez. So where are all these good bats going to play? And is there any minor leaguer who the Twin's brass views as their future SS? To some this might seem like a good problem to have; to others, maybe it's just too confusing.

I have to give this trade season an Incomplete grade. On the whole, the FO did well, especially on Cruz and Berrios. A+ on those. Unlike many, I give them high grades in keeping Donaldson, Buxton, Kepler and even Sano. If this team is to have any offense next year, they need this group to anchor the lineup. But the trade deadline moves are only a first step in return to respectability. Resigning Pineda and Buxton are musts. Signing a top FA pitcher is a must, as is acquiring at least two bullpen arms who can be depended on to close games. Without these additional moves, we are looking at an extended rebuild. If the Wonder Boys complete their mission, I'll be first in line to congratulate them! IF they repeat 2021 mistakes(and we should know by midseason 2022, they should be shown the door. Oh, and let's not forget need for ownership to be proactive in expanding payroll to invest in this brighter future.

No question, this is a bad team now. How can it be anything else when your best hitter and pitcher are traded? But the FO had little choice but to trade both Cruz and Berrios now while their value was highest. Berrios made it pretty plain he was going to test FA. If he wanted to be paid like an ace, Twins had to trade him. Cruz at 41 is a stud, but to expect him to continue at this high level is just unrealistic. While yes, the Twins are in a rebuilding mode and as things stand now, contention in 2022 looks like a big stretch, the future does look brighter than it did several days ago, especially in the rotation. To accelerate the improvement, they need to resign Pineda and hope that one or two of their top 10 prospects can contribute positively by 2023. They have at least doubled their chances of that happening if we can believe the baseball pundits. With Jax and Ober pitching reasonably well to date, it's feasible one of them plus one of the other prospects will solidify the #4 and 5 spots by 2023. Admittedly the offense is a big unknown. So long as they can escape any major injuries, Donaldson and Buxton are middle lineup, above average hitters. Guys like Arraez, Polanco, Garver have by and large established their offense. We should expect at least one of Kirillof or Larnach to contribute to this core, and I'm not quite ready to write off Sano and Kepler yet. They still show flashes now and then, though not nearly enough to count on. With Miranda and possibly Martin showing great promise, additional reinforcement should occur by 2023. None of the above is any guarantee of a rapid return to contention. This FO must get a lot smarter in signing FAs. A FA signing of someone like Thor or Stroman is essential. This team has no ace and likely will not for the next 2-3 years. Ditto for bullpen additions. At least two closer-types needs to be added. We should also transition a guy like Duran to the pen as soon as he is off the IL and bring up guys like Cano, Hamilton and Moran to see who might stick. Signing Buxton to a LT contract is an absolute must. If the FO fails at this very achievable goal, heads should roll. And speaking of rolling heads, Rocco tops the list. He and at least a few of his coaches just don't cut it. If this year has shown nothing else, lack of leadership, lack of stressing fundamentals and poor game management have not been the sole cause of futility, but they certainly haven't helped. With some smarter FA moves, signings and player development, this team should start making noise by 2023!

Before we look into our crystal balls post-deadline, a quick review of what's just transpired might be in order. First, we lost our best hitter and best pitcher. For this very reason, chances are this season is going to get even worse. Three of our new starters will likely be Ober, Jax and Barnes, none of whom figures to be better than a #5 starter. The bullpen has arguably gotten worse without Rogers and Robles. And the offense will likely continue to be erratic - some big run production outings against below average pitching, but more likely low run production against even average pitching. And with a very difficult August schedule, the likelihood of the Twins climbing out of the cellar looks mighty slim. But let's look at the bright side. The Twins prospect depth greatly improved. We've added at least 3 top 10 prospects, probably catapulting our depleted, injury-stricken minor league system into the top ten in MLB, at least on paper anyway. And just as importantly, we kept several players who can be building blocks going forward. You cannot underestimate the importance of Maeda and Pineda, solid #2 and #3 starters in leading a reenergized rotation in 2021. Nor can you ignore the importance of having a Donaldson and hopefully healthy Buxton leading the offense next year. Which brings me to my first point : they need to resign both Pineda and Buxton if this team has any chance of jumping into contention in 2023. This team will likely not be a playoff contender next year but for them to bounce back to at least a .500 record and set the stage for contention in 2023, these 4 players must be kept.. Continuing on the bright side, this FO did a great job in the trade department. They received at least 3-4 players who should be playing in the big leagues as soon as next year, but most likely by 2023. The rotation's future looks much brighter with guys like Joe Ryan and SWR, not to mention our top prospects, Winder and Balozavic, should yield one or two rotation mainstays by 2023. Which brings me to point#2: Sign a FA with ace potential this offseason. My first choice is Syndergaard who should be more affordable due to injury but still young enough to lead a contending staff. He should be an offseason priority. This is a risk but one well worth taking if the team is committed to rebounding quickly. The new additions will also mitigate against rushing some of our younger prospects and perhaps switching some to relievers. Which brings me to the bullpen. We added some middling prospects, one of whom might prove valuable in the pen. We still have Rogers, Duffy and Thielbar, with a few minor leaguers on the verge. Let;s bring up guys like Cano, Hamilton, and Moran and see how they do. Coulombe has looked decent. Point #3: they must spend the $ for a top FA reliever. Any suggestions? I'm at a loss here. And let's try to get Alcala straightened out at AAA now, as well as transitioning Duran to the pen. This is still a dumpster fire but at least it can't get much worse than it is now. So count me as positive for the retool. It sure beats a long rebuild!!

Agree that Dodgers are one of Twin's best trade partners, primarily because of their deep farm system. For Berrios and one other reliever(Duffey, Thielbar?), Twins should shoot for two top 10 prospects. Although injured, May would be my top choice, but doubtful Friedman would move him. If not, two of Gray, Pepiot, or Gonsolin would be great. These are all names that have been bandied about many times on this site and others. I have another suggestion. One of those three starters + Lux(who could step into SS position immediately) and (surprise), Graterol, who MLBTR says might be available. While he's been injury prone his addition would provide a badly needed option for a shutdown reliever. Twins might have to toss in a prospect here to sweeten the deal, but this is direction I hope FO will go. With addition of a key FA pitcher(Syndergaard is far and away my top choice), retaining Pineda and Maeda, one of the Dodger pitchers mentioned above, and either our best minor league prospect or Joe Ryan, our 2022 rotation should be much improved. Fingers crossed!!

Joefish: I realize Polanco is an average SS at best, but think it more important for both Arraez and Polanco to be in lineup every day and this is only solution, at least for 2022. Without Cruz, this team is going to need all the offense possible, which is why guys like Donaldson, Kepler, Buxton, Garver and yes, even Sano should be on next year's squad if this team is going to at least be respectable. Twins didn't do too badly in 2019/2020 w/Polanco at SS, so let him play there next year, too. I see greater hope for 2023 with hopefully the emergence of Lewis and Miranda bolstering the lineup, thereby lessening heavy dependence on an aging Donaldson, an all-or-nothing Sano and allowing the FO to pursue trading Polanco for whatever help is needed at that time. Of course, returning to contention in 2023 will greatly depend on the success of Falvine's draft picks upon being promoted to the Twins. The jury is still out on that big question.

Earlier this week you guys had to make a tough move and trade Nelson Cruz, a face of the franchise. With the deadline approaching, have you given any directives to Derek/Thad about your other potential faces of the franchise, José Berríos or Buxton? No. I don’t give any directives to the front office. I don’t think that anybody wants me to be doing that, (media) or any fan out there or anybody on the team. I don’t do that. _________________________________________________________________ The above quote by Pohlad when questionned by Dan Hayes of The Athletic capsulizes in a nutshell what is wrong with this franchise. It would be very simple for Pohlad to tell Falvey : sign this guy! Period. But I'm afraid JP, as usual, prefers to sit by the side of the pool rather than make a decision. This is simply lack of leadership - a trait that has plagued this franchise since the son has taken over. When Carl tried to contract the Twins and came to a baseball meeting in Chicago, I came down to O'hare with signs protesting this egregious act. I got in Carl's startled face and chastised him for this travesty. As the only protestor, I was interviewed by A TV reporter from the the Twin Cities NBC channel. I'm only relaying this story to implore the Twin's fan base to get off their butts and picket Pohlad's office now. What do you have to lose, other than the franchise's best player since Puckett? Who knows, maybe JP will shed his lethargy and listen to the fans! You guys should have a lot to say!!

No question, Angels nabbing 3 of 4 primarily due to the lack of offense. Without Cruz and Kirillof, this is a well below average offense. Rocco must give Garver and Sano plenty of playing time, not only to help spark a languid offense, but to better assess what help they will be next year and beyond. With Bux's status even more uncertain, this team must find some answers on the offensive side as well as pitching. Right now, hopes for a rebound in 2022 are looking mighty slim. One more thing. This org. better decide soon whether Alcala can be fixed. He has been a huge disappointment in my mind and cannot at all be counted on being a positive member of the pen going forward. Better start bringing the rooks up after trade deadline and see now whether they can provide some hope for the future. This current bullpen is a dumpster fire!

Not minimizing Berrios" ability. Just sounds like he wants the market to set his value, not the Twins. That could result in his getting somewhere between $20-25MM/yr for at least 5 years. If Twins ownership willing to increase payroll significantly more, e.g., by 20-30% over current payroll, then perhaps they could compete in FA. But their priority seems to be resigning Bux - and that's as it should be, so if they can get someone now to send a couple top prospects for Berrios now, that would be far preferable to letting him go for a comp pick. If you think the Twins can realistically retool enough in 2022, then yes, keep Berrios by all means. I don't think that's reality and so, trading Berrios seems like the right move now. After a very good yield for Cruz, I'm hopeful the FO can build on this success with a second major trade, and that would have to include Berrios and probably Rogers, too.

Top Gun: Yes, I purposely left return for Berrios out, as now it's just pure speculation what that might be. At first glance, yes, the Dodgers seem to be in great need for a starter and late inning reliever. May would be great as a return. I'd add Lux in the package, along with another top prospect like Pepiot or Gonsolin. Problem is Friedman hates giving up top prospects and I think May would be untouchable. The Pods also look like a good trade prospect with guys like Weathers and Paddack intriguing. No telling what Preller will do, but SD would be my second favorite trade target. Bottom line: Twins FO needs to be blown away to trade Berrios/Rogers and while I think they should, given Berrios' seeming demand for ace $ and Rogers still uneven, as indicated by his %Inherited Runners Scored, I doubt Falvey will pull the trigger. I agree that offense will take a step back next year, but chalk it up to growing pains. With our needs in the pen and rotation, just not much left over to add bats. I pushed for Twins this past offseason to trade Polanco for package of Castellanos and Gray or Castillo, but that was not to happen. And while I am as unhappy with Sano as everyone else, his trade value is so low we're better off holding on to him for DH duties. Rooker will never be better than a AAAA player and there is no one else on the farm that looks like an upgrade. Strum: Have to disagree here. Both Arraez and Polanco are too valuable to slot into a utility role. This lineup needs consistency and these two have been providing it. A guy like Gordon could fill the bill until Lewis is ready, at which time, trading Polanco or Arraez might be feasible. In the meantime, each of these guys should focus in their offensive contributions instead of manning several positions. Bad idea, especially for a young guy like Arraez.

Now that the first shoe has dropped in the Twin's trade season, what should the Twins do next? The Cruz trade impact clearly affects both the pitching and offense of this team, both now and next year. The additions of Ryan and to a lesser extent, Strotman, can be expected to bolster the Twin's staff, even as soon as next year. Their addition improves the odds that ("trumpets blaring"), this team might have doubled their chances to internally develop an ace(prior to this trade, Balozavic seemed the only minor leaguer who has a reasonable chance to achieve this status). Furthermore, their addition can allow guys like Duran and Winder more time in the minors to develop better secondary pitches, rather than being rushed to the ML club. Of course, losing your most consistent hitter in a very inconsistent lineup will have a negative impact on the offense. There is no one ready to step in to the DH role and replace Cruz, either this year or next. So one fallout of this trade should be that the FO holds onto its remaining offensive talent, starting with Donaldson and Buxton. Josh has shown his ability this year, both to stay relatively healthy and be a middle-of-the-lineup threat. Buxton, despite his injury history, is the catalyst this offense needs and must be resigned at all costs. Happy to see the FO making an offer now rather than let the issue linger into next season. Get it done, Falvey. The loss of Cruz should squash any thoughts of trading guys like Sano, Kepler, Garvey, Polanco, or Arraez if there is any hope of having a competitive lineup next year. While each of these guys have their drawbacks, there is simply no one in the minors who looks ready to replace any of these guys. Yes, Kirillof looks like a better long term 1B than Sano, but the latter should be retained to serve as DH, with Garver and Astudillo as backups. Arraez should have a permanent position at 2B. Ditto for Polanco at SS, at least until Lewis or someone else is ready. Miranda is having a great season, but should not be rushed to the majors before he shows he can step into Donaldson's shoes in 2023/4. Even with an improved staff in 2022, this lineup does not inspire great hope of an immediate rebound. Hopefully, the FO is not finished dealing this month. At the top of their list of tradable assets should be Berrios. He is what he is - an above average, dependable #3 starter who can help put a contender in a better position to win it all these next two years. You never know what other clubs would offer in trade, but certainly we could expect another major-league-ready pitcher at least as good, and likely better than Ryan. Reading all the reports, Berrios seems very unlikely to resign with the Twins, and that's not a bad thing. He is not the type of ace you can build a staff around and certainly shouldn't be paid like one. Assuming the demand for his talents is quite strong now, the FO should capitalize on a bidding war to procure two top prospects by the July 30 the deadline. One can hope that teams like the Dodgers, Padres, or Jays, loaded with excellent prospects, would be bidding for Berrios' services now - to the point of maybe even overpaying. Trading Berrios should coincide with retaining Maeda and Pineda. Though neither can be counted on as an ace, they are perfectly suitable for #2-3 slots in most rotations, especially a Twins team who has little hope of being serious contenders in 2022. The one FA starter who the Twins should pursue this offseason is Syndergaard. Yes, we don't know how much he can contribute in 2022 after a serious injury, but it's a risk worth taking. He could be much more likely to be a true ace than anyone since Santana. Maybe the FO could make it easier on the Mets by trading Berrios to them, thereby lessening their need to resign Thor. I can get very excited by a rotation of Thor, Maeda, Pineda, Balozavic, and Ryan in 2023! As for the bullpen, yes, reinforcements are badly needed. I would keep Rogers unless getting a trade offer too good to refuse. Ditto with Duffey, but the Twins must have a proven closer in place by a year from now. I've liked what I've seen of Coulombe and Ferrell, albeit very small sample size. I can only hope Alcala progresses(though I think he's rapidly losing credibility this year in a late-inning role).. Duran looks like a potential closer-type but that remains to be seen. One proven closer must be signed in the offseason to bolster this group. This will not be a playoff-ready bullpen next year but it has the potential of no longer being the trash fire it was this year, especially after getting rid of guys like Colome, Robles, and other ill-conceived 2021 FA pickups. And finally, since this is my wish list, I have one more request. Please get rid of Rocky. He is too laid back for a contender and doesn't have the necessary baseball smarts to pull the proper levers. This team's lack of fundamentals and fire have been agonizing to watch and while blame can be shared equally among under-performing players, Rocco and the FO, if this team is going to rebound in the next couple of years, replacing Rocco with a veteran manager is a necessity. It's worked for the Sox, why not the Twins?

Thanks Ted for summary of "hitting prospects". It goes to reinforce belief that Twins 2022 offense depends greatly on keeping the current offense intact. The only promising position player who should be called up this season is Miranda. The other guys mentioned are at best AAAA players. If this is the Twins' future, look out below, especially if Rooker "replaces" Cruz. He has shown absolutely nothing at the ML level that indicates he can fill Cruz's jock, no less his shoes. We'd better hang on to guys like Donaldson, Garver, Sano, Kepler if we hope to rebound in 2022; otherwise, even if this FO succeeds in a successful rebuild of the pitching staff, the offense would take a big step backwards. The attention has been all on pitching, but looks like the Wonder Boys have also whiffed on offense as well, if these are our best near-term prospects.

Of all the buying teams out there, these are the 2 teams with perhaps the best combination of win-all mentality and top level pitching prospects, in fact, almost an embarrassment of riches. Both teams would certainly improve their chances in the playoffs by adding these two proven players. Looking at the Dodgers first, I think a combination of May, Lux and some AA type prospect like Jackson would be a solid yield. With Seager returning, Lux will be relegated to the bench, making him more available now than before. The question is: defensively, how good is he at SS? As May is highly prized by LA, perhaps a package like LA Fan proposes(Lux, Gonsolin and Pepiot) would also work well. Big problem here is Friedman hates to give up top prospects. So this is a low probability trade scenario. The Pods also could greatly benefit by the Twins duo. A trade package around Weathers and Paddack, plus a lower level guy Tim mentioned, like Medina, would greatly boost the Twins rotation as soon as next year. While Paddack and Weathers have been highly rated by the Pods, Weather's injuries and Paddack's ineffectiveness, along with Preller's innate desire to think big, could get this done. The big downside here: would Falvine be up for this high risk trade? In any case, I feel that Berrios and Rogers might be more available in the right deal than many of us believed. The fact that the FO made an offer to Buxton now, and not Berrios or Rogers, indicates these latter two are looked at as more immediate trade chips now. Just speculation of course, but if Falvine could get either of these type of packages, he should go for it.

Nick, useful information, but are these really key questions now? Your first four questions seem to have already been answered. None of these players have shown anything that would lead us to believe they can be key contributors on a contending team. Not one! Similarly, the middle infield problem is pretty easily answered. The Twins do not have anyone on the current roster, except Simmons, who is a plus defender at SS, easily the most important defensive position in the lineup. Since Simmons is unlikely to bring back much in the way of trade, he should be resigned until a real SS prospect emerges. Nothing I've heard about Lewis leaves me to believe he is the heir apparent. But one question that should be asked, though it is not as critical as some others, is whether one of Polanco or Arraez should be traded for a top starting pitcher prospect? 2B is one of few positions where we have a "surplus" and neither of these two should be relegated to a utility role, The bullpen picture is as muddied as you said, but can't understand why guys like Farrell, Law, Stashak, Thorpe are even considered. Give the relief opportunities to guys like Cano and Moran who have excelled, maybe even Hamilton for the remainder of the year. Have to add that Alcala has shown very little, except ability to yield HRs, Duffy has taken a big step back(look at his % inherited runners scored) and Rogers is simply not the shutdown ace a real contender needs. What a mess! This FO has some much bigger problems than these. I hope they're up to the task!

Ken Rosenthal reported last nite in the Athletic that the Twins have offered Buxton a $70MM contract with incentives. Length of contract was not mentioned. Furthermore, Rosenthal's sources indicated Twins FO wants resolution by trade deadline. Conclusion: Buxton will likely be traded if no resolution. My two cents: am happy Twins FO is being proactive here. It is the right course to take with Bux, given the retool/reload in the offing. But this offer seems too low, despite his injury history. Of course, a smart offer should include substantial incentives for games played. Buxton should be able to make at least $20MM/yr depending on games played. Maybe this is a 3 year offer? Who knows at this point.

Lots of good discussion on the Retool vs. Rebuild Question. Nick, you seem to straddle the fence by your"retool and reset", implying to me anyway that it is unrealistic for this team to contend in 2022, but with a couple of good trades of our top pieces, perhaps a resigning of Buxton, and a better FA outcome next year, a reasonable expectation would be a return to contention in 2023, rather than a long term rebuild. That looks like the wisest choice now. If the Twins can get two almost-major-league-pitching prospects for Berrios and Rogers, they should jump at the chance. I could see the 2022 staff improving with one of these trade additions, progress from at least one of our minor leaguers, and an improvement from Maeda and Pineda(or FA signing). Certainly, there would be more longer term hope for the staff than currently is the case. More importantly, they would not have to rush any of their prospects next year. I should add that with this outline, the offense should not be decimated. Can't afford to lose more than one of Sano, Cruz or Donaldson(and none should be traded if the return is as weak as forecasters predict:. I think the 2022 team should be able to rebound to at least a .500 club with a pitching outlook for 2023 much improved. My biggest concern, however, is the huge question mark about Falvines' ability to assess talent. Over at the Athletic, Glee-man has had some excellent articles on three weaknesses this FO has exhibited in 4+ years : 1.) a weak midseason trade record: 2.) poor FA signings(except for Cruz) and 3.) inability to hold on to minor league talent that has gone on to much greater heights in other orgs. One might even conclude that Falvey's hubris over knowing talent better than his predecessor has clouded his judgment over inherited prospects. It makes for a very sober assessment of their judgment, including on the manager and coaching staff. I believe Falvey will get a pass because of the lost development year in 2020 but if they flounder again in the first half of 2022, Pohlad better have the guts to wield the ax. With the core this FO inherited, there can be no more ex cuses for such underperformance.

Big Dog:http://you believe they have failed with all the shortstops in the system (some of whom they didn't draft), doesn't drafting a shortstop seem like a priority? Sounds logical, but for two things: 1. Their overriding need is pitching so why not use their second highest pick for another high risk/high upside guy? 2. The 2022 FA market is loaded with proven SS. Rather go that route than wait 4-5 years for a HS prospect(assuming we're in a retool stage than rebuild). And if these FAs are all too pricey, I would resign Simmons. From everything I've read, none of the SSs on the 40 man roster, nor any other non-40 man minor league player, is said to have the skills needed in a ML SS.

Pleased with the top pick. High risk, high reward pitcher at #26 is the right way to go, given the top college pitchers all gone by then. Not too happy with another SS at #36, given this FO's mediocre pick of Cavaco, plus zero ML results on Lewis, not to mention the previous lack of success with other HS SSs like Gordon, Javier. Every one of these guys have shown inability to stick at SS. The book is not yet closed but with a flailing pitching staff, couldn't Johnson have found another high risk/high ceiling HS pitcher at #36? As for the rest of the draft, a big meh. Yes, no way of knowing but certainly no one else stands out initially. This team needs some wipeout bullpen stoppers, ones with upper 90's speed. There is no one on their draft list that seems to fit this gaping hole, at least now. My draft rating : a C. Hope I'm wrong, but this org. doesn't seem to have learned the importance of pitching in building a contender.

Nice analysis Tim, especially if your assumption of the FO having $45 MM left in budget for offseason additions is likely. That is simply insufficient to fill all the holes needed to return to contention in '22. But I do have some comments on your thoughts on next season's 26 man roster: 1. The Lineup -I like the fact you are keeping Buxton and Donaldson. Our hit or miss offense would be even worse next year without them. I would also keep Sano or Cruz(preferably the latter because he is one of only 3 or 4 professional batters in this lineup, has shown little signs of falloff, and most importantly, would fetch little value in return). To expect Larnach/Kirillof to both improve significantly in their sophomore seasons is a real stretch, so 3 of the 4 veteran bats would be needed. -Forget about signing Baez for one year. Ain't going to happen. If that's best he can do on the market, the Cubs would resign him in a heartbeat. Besides, as an extreme go-for-the-fences hitter, he would not be a great fit for a team too reliant on the long ball already. -Arraez is too good a hitter to play in a utility role. He must be penned in to 2B and kept there. Play Polanco at SS and hope Lewis is ready in '23. Despite his defensive deficiencies, Twins did ok with him at SS in '19 and '20. Sure the defense will suffer somewhat but it beats spending big $$ on one of the FA SSs. 2. The bullpen - Still way too weak. This is a tough one to predict, but I shudder at the thought of Alcala and his HR ball as a setup man, Thielbar, Dobnak, and Smeltzer do not belong in a contender's bullpen. Their upside is very limited. And Duffey has regressed(as seen by his inherited runner's scored % of over 50%) to the point where you don't know what you'll get. It is unfortunate we have so many injuries in the minor leagues, as that severely limits trials on the big league club this season. But this FO must bring up those healthy arms who they think have potential as relievers. I would even bring up Duran if healthy for spot bullpen usage. So bottom line: the Twins are going to have to spend a lot more than $3MM on FA relievers. Go for one big closer(it worked for the Sox!) and one established setup man. Yes, relievers are a crap shoot, but this season's disaster shows dumpster diving is no way to build an effective pen. 3. The Rotation - Totally agree that it is unlikely the Twins can bolster it next year with prospects. Ober and/or Winder are the two likeliest and thus, should be pitching in the rotation for the rest of the season. Don't think Ober's ceiling is higher than a #5, Winder's maybe a #3, but just can't expect both to contribute as early as next year, nor can any of their top prospects be counted on next year, either. That would leave us with Berrios, Maeda, and as you say, 2 FAs to fill out the rotation. I have little hope this organization will go for any of the top FA pitchers you list. The top tier will either be resigned by their current team or be priced out of the Twins' meager budget. Gray and Ray are the only ones who appeal in the 2nd tier and again, I don't think its in this FO's DNA to take the plunge. They are going to stick with their plan to develop internally, no matter where it takes this org. -Trades are another route and I would love to get Gallen(who the Twins could have picked up cheaply a few years ago), but why would the rebuilding Dbacks(or O's or Rocks) trade their best pitcher? As you said we'd have to give up one or two of our top prospects - a move this FO has failed to do in the last 4 years other than Graterol).. My best stab at improvement would be to go hard after Thor, but this risk-averse FO is unlikely to go out on a limb like that. So where does that leave us? Looks like in your scenario there are too many holes to fill to realistically contend next year, unless Pohlad issues a mandate to spend big and backs it up with an enlarged budget. So perhaps the conclusion is we should use our best trade pieces(Berrios and Rogers) to acquire almost major-league pitching prospects to accelerate our return to contention in '23 or '24. But by all means, keep Buxton. He is our only remaining star, even if he is a bit flawed. Unfortunately, I have little faith in Falvine to make the right moves to bring about the necessary right additions. Hope I'm wrong, but if we see no progress next year, time for a regime change.

Kudos Tim! Of all the trade proposals on TD, these sound like win-wins. Frankly, in my own blog(retool or rebuild), I was opposed to trading any premier pitching talent, as that is obviously our biggest weakness and by doing so, you can pretty much forget contending in the next year or two. But my faith in Falvine's acumen in retooling on the fly for next season has been badly shaken. It doesn't help we have an ownership that has never demonstrated a desire to take risks by providing more $ for top trade pieces or FA, and the FO's failures(to date) in spotting undervalued talent, so it very well might be a better idea to pass on 2022 contention if near-major league talent becomes available. But either of these two trades would likely bring back young, controlled pitching. I love May and Weathers. If the FO decides(soon I hope) that Berrios cannot be resigned, then trading to one of these two win-now teams would provide a much-needed boost to the Twins future rotation. I find it hard to believe after their splurge this past offseason that either team is in need of pitching, but you nicely state this strange turn of events and why they might bite. I doubt the Pods or LA would give up that much talent but if so, I would jump on it! Chances of either of these deals happening <5%. I just don't believe Falvey has the guts to do it, even if he could get such a return.

Interesting take! Alcala to date has been a big disappointment. As you mention, his proclivity for the HR ball has been his downfall. But my real question is: why hadn't the Twins' minor league pitching gurus realize early on that his two pitch repertoire would not translate to big league success? Why is he just learning the importance of a changeup now? Falvey brought in new pitching instructors to revamp previous administration's failures in developing pitchers, along with the whiz kid from college ranks to be the pitching coach at the ML level. Lots of stirring the pot, but the results to date are about the same as under Ryan. While you can't entirely write off Alcala yet, his lack of progress is either a failure of minor league instruction or a big swing and miss by the FO in acquiring less talent than they thought they were getting for an all star reliever who would certainly have helped this year. Until this FO develops some real major league pitching talent, their regime for now has to be rated a colossal failure. The clock is ticking.

As others have noted, its nice to see several top-rated pitchers here, but I think that if the Twins wish to contend again in 2022, they cannot count on any of these guys to contribute significantly next year. Injuries, uneven performances, and frankly, long term pitching development problems in this organization, even under the pitching gurus running the FO for the past 4+ years, would seem to mitigate against any such significant help next year. I would like to see them push Winder to the Twins sooner(by Aug. 1st at the latest) rather than as a September callup. He really looks like a potential #3 or 4 starter but we should find out if his minors success can translate to the big leagues. So, unless they opt for a full rebuild, they better keep Berrios, Maeda and Pineda if they hope to be relevant again as soon as next year. Sign or trade for an established starter and hope either Ober or Winder can fill the #5 spot better than Happ or the Shoe and we might have the makings of a solid rotation.

Wow! Now that's what I'd call a total rebuild! Depending on this offseason budget constraints, your plan might be the only viable one left..It would probably make the banker happy, allow Falvine another 4-5 years to justify their existence, guarantee 2-3 yrs. of dead last finishes and probably reduce attendance by 50%. Might be ok for you young guys but we seniors don't have time left to wait that long. I just want one more World Championship!!

Nick, you have presented a persuasive argument but as I posited in my blog: http://Going Forward - Retool or Rebuild?, I look at a Donaldson trade this year as a nail in the coffin for a retool rather than a rebuild. First, the Twins do not have a replacement for him at 3B. Arraez doesn't have the arm for the position, Miranda is promising but it's a long jump to filling JD's shoes next year, and Sano's time as a Twin looks over. Second, assuming Cruz is traded by July 31st, the loss of both these guys would leave a massive hole in our 2022 lineup. I like Kirillof and Larnach but sophomore slumps are just too frequent in this game(look at Jeffers) and, other than Buxton, there are no all stars on this team that could be expected to lead the offense next year. Of course, if someone offered a top pitching prospect for Josh, we should jump at it, but how likely is that to occur unless we throw in a big dollar contribution? And if so, what does that do to our ability to retain Berrios, Buxton, and Rogers or sign one of the premier FA SSs on the market this offseason? If there was some acknowledgment by ownership that the purse strings will be loosened to accomplish a successful retooling next year, life would be much simpler. But looking at past history and the inability of this FO to find quality nuggets in the discard basket, my bet going forward is an unsuccessful retooling effort followed by years of a rebuild.