mike8791

Nice blueprint Nick. Love that you are not willing to stand pat in the bullpen, adding three new arms. Pomeranz and Bretances would be great additions. I simply do not trust May and Duffy to step into 7th and 8th inning roles seamlessly, particularly against top lineups in critical situations. A big no on Iglesias, even for Rosario or Balazovic. No need to trade a regular or conceivably our best future rotation prospect for a reliever. The two additions mentioned above would be adequate; a third arm like Will Smith would be a bonus. This organization has utterly failed to develop ace-like starters and right now only Balazovic looks like a good possibility. Big thumbs up for Baumgartner, who would slot in as a #1 above a good, not great, Berrios. But Twins will have to overpay to get him to come east. Let's see how serious the Twins are about taking the next step up. If they fail on either MadBaum or Wheeler, that answers the question. And bringing back Odo and Pineda should be no brainers. Very solid #2-4 hurlers! Again, big failure by FO not to achieve these three additions. Not at all worried about #5 spot with these 4. Castro also seems like no-brainer if he's interested in a backup role. Only other move I would like to see is move Sano to 1B and sign either Moose or Donaldson to play 3rd. This way we slightly improve infield defense and maintain a strong lineup. Think this addition needed to offset what could be a precipitous decline from 2019 lineup.

So what happened to the Duff man in ALDS? Five inherited runners; five scored! Sorry, Duffy has always been vulnerable to giving up the bomb at the most inopportune time and did not disappoint against the Yankees. No, I'm not discounting his improvement in the second half of 2019, but until he shows he can dominate when it really counts against top offenses, color me sceptical. The Twins still have a need for at least one(and preferably two) late inning shutdown arms going forward.

Nice discussion! And a needed one, too! My two cents: 1. Realistically, for all the good reasons listed by previous posters, there is no chance the Twins will land any of the elite FA starters available. It's just not in the DNA of this franchise(and Falvine has no doubt absorbed this lesson all too well). 2. A Wheeler is not going to move the needle. He is not an ace, but a good #3-type starter - and maybe less in the AL. Rare has been the pitcher transferring from the NL to AL and improving performance. Maybe once in a blue moon. 3. The Twins have no current starter capable of shutting down a high powered offense in a critical game. Berrios is a good #2 or more likely #3, but has never demonstrated consistent ability to deliver an ace-like performance in a big game. And to think at this stage in his career that he can make meaningful strides to stepping up in big games is nothing more than wishful thinking. 4, Even signing Odor and Pineda - which is such an obvious move if the Twins want to even come close to repeating their successful regular 2019 season - will not lead to any more success in the playoffs. They are unproven in big situations and likely what you have seen is what you will get going forward - good, solid pitchers but not a big improvement over Berrios. 5. The farm system offers little in the way of near term hope in improving this squad's playoff capabilities, especially with the organization's abject failure in developing any starting rotation players. Granted, Falvey has made many organizational; changes but there is still no one on the horizon who looks like a sure-fire #1 0r 2, at least for the next 2-3 years. 6. The only chance for really improving this rotation to playoff caliber is by a major trade, which will probably mean trading one of our two top prospects, as well as a bona fide major leaguer, like Sano, Kepler, Rosario, or Buxton. Fortunately our lineup is strong now, we have some promising OF/1B/DH prospects that might fill the void adequately, and we have the payroll room to go after a high-salaried star. The big question mark is whether Falvine are big enough risk takers to accomplish this. Their inactivity at the trade deadline indicates not, even though the now legendary window was wide open. Will the humiliation of the first round exit spur them to more aggressive behavior? That is the big offseason question.

In theory I would agree, but with so many more pressing needs in the rotation and bullpen, weakening the lineup by dropping Cron and moving Sano leaves a big void at 3B. There is no minor leaguer ready to take over there and only Gonzales could slide in to a semi-permanent third basement, thereby severely weakening the bench and team flexibility. Better to resign Cron for one year and hope that one of he top minor leaguers is ready later in the year or 2021.

Can't wait for THE GAME!! Very interested in seeing the lineup. Kepler, Gonzales and Garver better all be in there to give Twins a chance. Must express concern about Berrios instead of Odo, who pitched well in Twin's only victory this year in the Bronx. Granted he didn't fare so well at Target, but as you say Nick, this first game win is critical, particularly to a Twins team that must get this NY yoke off their back. Berrios has the tools to shut down this lineup and last 6-7 innings but does he have the mentality to pitch well in such a pressure-packed situation? His record is very sketchy here; his last playoff appearance showed how the Yank's patient lineup could get to him. No knockout blows but too many baserunners. Let's say, he would not be my first choice(or second if Pineda available). Odorizzi would have been a better choice - better down the stretch, perhaps a little more mental nfortitude. We'll see soon!

You're right, gotta give these younguns some time to develop. But I have to admit I have very little faith they will turn into positive replacements next year or in the future. They just haven't shown much to warrant optimism. Graterol is intriguing, but unless he develops a third out pitch, looks like he's destined to land in the bullpen. So let's call him a promising, but largely, big question mark. As exciting as the DH sweep was, it doesn't really change the odds against us in Round 1 of the playoffs, probably against Houston. We have no one of the caliber of Verlander, Coles, or Greinke. That is going to be a major, but not insurmountable obstacle to advancing, even if we are completely healthy. There is just no overlooking the crushing loss of Pineda in a playoff. I actually like our chances better against the Yanks with their inferior rotation, but that might be getting a little ahead of myself. Looking to next year's rotation, they must sign both Odo and Pineda. We have no one else of that quality in our system. Hoping for a major FA signing is purely wishful thinking. This organization has never shown the desire to outbid other teams in FA. So, will this FO risk trading one or two top prospects plus a regular to add quality to the staff? That will be the big question of the offseason. Based on their three year track record, one has to be very sceptical,I'm afraid.

What a difference a day makes! Great start by Smeltzer, followed by outstanding relief help/bullpen managment by Rocco. And finally, the bats came alive in Game 2 just in time. Hard to say who is Twins' MVP? Kepler, Polanco, Cruz, Sano, Garver, Rogers? Any one of these guys merit consideration. Best thing from DH sweep: standout bullpen. Smeltzer, Littell, Duffy, Romo, Graterol, May and Rogers. Boy was I wrong on Graterol(at least for one day). He could be key to a dominant bullpen, if not this year, then next. Coming down a bit from the high, the only negative was Thorpe. Can we add him to list of failed prospects: Romero, Gonzales, Stewart? Looks like mgt. sees Graterol in the bullpen, so what rising starters are left in the organization? Maybe Balazovic, but some analysts see him in the bullpen, too. So still on my wish list : this organizatiopn still has a lot to prove before they can compare to Cleveland in developing major league starters. We seem to have overcome that weakness this year, but if the Twins are going to move into the elite circle, they must develop some all-star-type MLB starters to augment their stellar offense if we are going to break this 28 year drought. But, hats off for now - this has been an exciting ride!!

Well, we're down to nail-biting time. This weekend's series can likely determine both Cleveland's and the Twins' fate for the season. A sweep by either team likely spells the end for the losing team. Pretty obvious for Cleveland if they're on the losing end, but almost as obvious for a reeling Twins team headed in the wrong direction. That's just reality. Even if the Twins manage to sneak in to a WC game, their chances against the A's or Rays, both of whom are headed in the right direction lately, would appear dim indeed. But this article in today's NYT : https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/13/sports/baseball/shane-bieber-indians-pitchers.html really gets to the difference in the two organizations' prospects. Despite trading Bauer, losing Kluber, Carrasco, and Salazar to injuries/illness, Cleveland has been able to maintain one of the best rotations in the league, certainly far stronger at present than the Twins. Bauer has emerged as an ace, far better than Berrios now, Clevinger is close behind, and Plesac and Civale have performed far better than any of our #3,4 or 5 starters(now that Pineda has taken himself out of the equation. Even Plutko has provided stability as a #5 starter. And now even though Hand is down, their newest arrival, James Karinchak, has been looked at as his replacement as soon as next year. And what have the Twins come up with for reinforcements? One can say, a big fat zero, at least compared to the Indians' newcomers. The failed list is distressingly long: Romero, Gonzales, Stewart, et. al. - none of whom can be relied on to pitch even one inning down the stretch. As we enter today's doubleheader, perhaps the best we could hope for are Thorpe and Smeltzer, neither of whom having given much indication of success in big games like today. Part of the problem is that Rocco and company have not given them much opportunity to start, but the far bigger problem is this organizations' utter failure to draft/develop major league starters, especially when compared to Cleveland. And today we hear that Alcala may be called up. Belatedly, the org. switched him to the bullpen after failing miserably as a starter. So now with 7 relief innings under his belt at AAA, he is being brought up in the biggest series of the year. Haven't we seen what happens when someone(read Graterol) is thrust into a critical game without any prior major league experience: a crushing extra inning loss to the Indians at home to start a critical three game series. I'm not going to predict the standings come Monday morning, but must confess to be a doubter as of now. The FO cannot be blamed for the long-standing weakness in Minnesota's pitching development and the loss of Pineda, but they passed on an opportunity at the trade deadline to be agressive in acquiring much needed help. Wouldn't Stroman or Minor have made all the difference? And after three drafts under Falvine, do any pitching prospects look ready to emerge next year to supplement our offensive prowess? Yes, the bullpen looks a bit stronger (no thanks to damaged goods Dyson) but that's because the re-emergence of May and Duffy has counterbalanced Rocco's shockingly poor bullpen (mis)managment. We should all be distraught if this record-setting offensive team fails to make the playoffs. It would be a crushing blow to the fan base and even more so, because all the stars aligned this year for surprising success. Can we expect a repeat next year?

Responding to Supfin: Thanks for comments! Agree that the lineup basically looks solid going into next year, especially the outfield! Outfield depth in minors looks good,too, which should motivate FO to trade someone like Rosario(and prospects) for a solid rotation guy. I'm not as high on our IF as you, mainly because of the below average D. Sano and Polanco are below average fielders and there are no immediate replacements. Sano is better at 1B and Polanco maybe at 2B, but then who takes over those two vital positions? Arraez deserves a spot, but he is below average at SS/3B. Perhaps if Lewis was ready they could play him at SS, Polanco at 2B and Gonzales at 3B with Arraez the super utility player. Gordon still looks iffy in my judgment. Where I differ is in our rotation prospects. They need a solid top 3 or 4, so signing Pineda and Odorizzi should be a major offseason goal. They should trade for a solid rotation arm, which is doable with OF and catcher depth. Gibson and Perez do not belong on a contending staff. Not one minor league pitcher at the AA or AAA level has performed at a level, either in the minors or in small major league trials, to justify optimism in their major league future. Gonzales and Romero are no longer prospects. Smelzer and Thorpe are the best chances for 2020 but neither has looked consistent in brief tryouts with the Twins. I suppose Graterol and Balazovisc are the most likely difference makers longer term but certainly not next year and only problematically in following years given the lack of success this organization has had developing top starters. In closing,just a comment on the bullpen. This is not nearly the problem area it was earlier this season. Given enough rest, Rogers has been a pretty effective closer. Both Dyson and Romo look to me like solid additions, May and Duffy have improved as the season has progressed and Littell has shown promise. This would be a third priority to me, behind rotation and IF defense. With a couple of major additions in the offseason, this team should be strong contenders. Bottom line: I have little confidence this FO will pull off any "big" moves.

Rosterman, thanks for comments! Just want to emphasize importance of resigning both Odorizzi and Pineda. The upper minors are barren of major-league-ready starters. This is just reality, I'm afraid. Relying on the minors to provide help for the rotation in 2020(and probably 2021) is really a pipe dream. This organization is not going to be a serious bidder for Gerrit Cole, the only ace-potential FA on the market(refer to Yu Darvish negotiations for relevant history). Nor has this FO in 3 years shown any appetite for going big on trades. They remind me of Gibson - nibble, nibble, nibble. Yes, give them credit for buying low on Odorizzi, Pineda and maybe Perez(jury still out on that one). But trading a regular position player or top prospect seems off the board for this group, I'm afraid. Maybe they'll come to their senses this offseason and trade for an established pitcher like Baumgartner or Snell, even if it means giving up a regular like Rosario(first choice), Garver(trade at highest value?) or even Sano(much less likely after his resurgence but should be considered if he fetches a top starter). Platoon, particularly like your comment on too many holes for one season acquisitions to fill. That is reality, but with the addition of one starter like Greinke or even Baumgartner, there is little doubt that in a one game or short playoff series, our chances to advance would be greatly improved. You win that all-important first game and the odds are in your favor to advance. As things stand now, our odds look slim and none in a short series against Yanks or Astros, either of whom will be our first playoff opponent should we prevail in the AL Central. When a season like this occurs, you need to go all in. Reward goes to the brave, not the meek. I understand the FO desire to build a perpetual contender, not a one-trick pony. I just have little faith in a Twins organization, both past and present, that has demonstrated little ability to draft and develop top notch starting pitching. Hope I'm wrong, but why do so many of our young phenoms flame out at the higher levels?

2019 has been an exhilarating ride. This is easily the best Twins team since 2010(and arguably, since 2006). While success is by no means assured this year, suffice it to say that 2019 has brought us to the cusp of serious playoff contention. While recent erratic play, particularly in the rotation and in the field, has tempered our chances for advancement , most of us still feel pretty comfortable about seeing playoff games in Target Field this year. We have a whole month to go, but as of today, I believe our chances of making the playoffs are better than 50%. With that said, my concerns are for the future. Is this success sustainable? Right now, I have my doubts, for several reasons: 1. In a way 2019 is a fluke in the AL Central. The Indians have been beset by horrific injuries: Kluber, Carrasco, Lindos, now Ramirez. They traded away Bauer, easily their #1 or 2 starter this year, and yet still have enough minor league pitching depth to take 3 of 4 from the Twins in Minnesota and are hanging in there despite 7 straight games against the NY teams. They lost Brantley to FA and yet they have managed to have one of the major's top offenses post All Star. Kudos to Francona and the Indians' player development staff for surviving such hits and still be a solid contender for the playoffs. Next year, with better health, this is still a formidable team! 2. The remainder of the AL Central is woeful, but this is not likely next year. The Sox, with some great young hitters(Roberts could be the best of them all), some solid holdovers(Abreu, Anderson, McCann), and an emerging rotation with a bonafide ace in Giolito, a rapidly improving Lopez, a solid veteran in Nova and two potential stars in Kopech and Cease, are bound to be more competitive next year. They are no longer pushovers and will be a contender at least for a WC in 2020. You heard it here first. 3. The Twins historic offense year is just not sustainable. Too many players are having career years. Is it likely this will reoccur next year? Sure, the Twins have rising stars in Buxton, Sano and Kepler, but who else do we consider future stars? Is Garver really this good? Is Polanco's first half as good as it's going to get. Nelson Cruz will be 40 next year, etc., etc. Yes, we will likely have a solid lineup next year, but hardly the overpowering one that showed up in 2019. This type of home run surge is just unsustainable. I would feel much better if we had more consistent hitting rather than an all or nothing attack. Arraez has been a great new addition, but he's already sliding a bit. Has the league started figuring him out? Are there any other minor leaguers who figure to have the same impact next year as Arraez has? 4. As most TD readers have noted, the Twins' rotation looks very shaky for 2020. Berrios is showing his true colors as a good but inconsistent starter. He is nowhere near an ace, which is why I and others pleaded with the FO to pull out all the stops to acquire a top starter at the trade deadline. Does anyone expect the Twins rotation to hold up to the Yankees or Astros' lineups in October? Next year is far shakier without Odorizzi and Pineda, arguably our two best starters now. Heaven help us if the FO decides not to re-sign both these guys. Gibson doesn't deserve an extension and the jury is still out on Perez. Has anyone stood out in the upper minors this year? The Ryan regime was a colossal failure in developing pitching and while Falvine hasn't been around long enough, their decision to sacrifice a #1 pitcher for Lewis was a real leap of faith to an organization with a lack of big-time pitching prospects. Sure we have some promising position-player prospects in the minors now but pitching wins championships - a fact proven over and over again. This organization's lack of success in developing either rotation stalwarts or lights-out stoppers must give even the most optimistic doubt they can do it in the future. Too bad spending money on a free agent or two is just not in this franchise's DNA! All this is not to say that the Twins will not be competitive next year, but do you really think their chances will be better than the present? The window was wide open this year, but Falvey decided to be cautious at the trade deadline despite having sizable payroll space and a nice surplus of prospects to trade. You don't have many chances in this game for the brass ring - a fact that Falvey and company might rue in future years.

Nick, always enjoy your summaries, especially when the Twins go 5-1. However, I should point out as a Chicago resident that the Sox, after a post all star swoon, are playing much better of late and are by no means a pushover anymore. Nova, Lopez and Giolito have been pitching at least as well as the Twins top three starters recently against some pretty tough competition(Houston). The Twins have not been playing particularly well at home and I think they will have a tough series this week against the Sox. I would be happy taking 2 out of 3 from the Sox, but won't be surprised if this is reversed. Just saying, Twinkies cannot afford to take any of these teams lightly and good pitching shuts down good hitting.

At the game yesterday. Lots of Twin fans! A few observations: 1. Though not helped by Polanco's first error, Gibson was excruciating to watch. His repertoire consists of sinkers in the dirt and 93mph fastballs, with surprisingly poor control. Had no strikeout pitch. Just have no confidence in this guy shutting down a good hitting team. Rocco was right in removing him after five. 2. Baldelli's bullpen usage is erratic. If your starter can only go five, you must have confidence in at least one middle reliever to go 2 innings. Bringing Dyson in the sixth was just a waste. We are 120 games into the season and there is no pattern to the mgr's bullpen usage. Of course, he was dealt a poor hand by the FO to begin with, but Dyson/Romo are experienced relievers who should be saved for late innings. Mgr. has to learn who can ( and can't) pitch on consecutive days! Good relievers will blow games now and then(Pressly gave up GS homer yesterday to WS!), but good bullpen managment involves setting roles and sticking to it. After 3/4 of the season, there is still no clear pattern. I blame the FO and Mgr. for that. 3. Polanco's errors are piling up. He is just too erratic - good plays followed by awful ones. Can't see him as SS on a playoff team, nor does the roster give hope for someone else taking over. As many have pointed out, infield defense has cost this team games and remains a sore spot. Amazing that our high draft picks like Lewis and Gordon do not seem to be considered by mgt. to be major league SS's. One person's opinion, but right now this is not a playoff team. They would have to back into a spot if someone else falters. Rotation is a mess as is bullpen. Home run or bust offense not enough to carry them into October, with these other weaknesses. Hope I'm wrong, but......

Baldelli and company have been doing it with mirrors and it's starting to catch up to them. The lead is down to 4 games(from a high of 12)! May alone has blown two critical games with lead-changing taters. He does not belong in close game situations, nor does Duffy a proven talent but a highly erratic pitcher. Littell is totally unproven in late inning situations. And if anyone thinks Kohl Stewart is the answer, I have a bridge to sell. This leaves Rogers, Harper and Parker. Rogers has been great but his overuse will almost certainly lead to burnout in the dog days of August. Harper has been a revelation but a big question mark going forward, given his lack of major league experience. Parker, too, is capable of good outings, but as a DFA player with the Angels is not a sure bet in tense situations. If Falvey and co. are truly serious about winning this division, not to mention actually advancing beyond a Round 1 playoff game, they must be willing to give up some high prospects to fill out this bullpen. Two like Giles and Smith would send a message to the team, fans and opponents alike that this team is to be taken seriously. Without two such proven shutdown relievers, this FO will look far too much like the timid terry teams of the aughts, the little engine that barely made it to the first round, then collapsed. With the trade deadline less than 2 weeks away, this FO has to make an early preemptive strike and trade away some of their best prospects now, rather than waiting to the last days to see what low hanging fruit remains. Cleveland is getting healthy and has a very easy schedule over the next 2 weeks, especially compared to the Twins 7 games against Oakland and the Yanks. The rotation has for the most part been good enough but a couple more blown saves and the Twins will find themselves looking up. It would be a waste of a great season if the Twins were allowed to collapse down the stretch ala the 2001 team due to FO mismanagment of the bullpen.

Nick, nice summary, as usual. A few comments on your comments: 1. In my blog on suggestions for a high profile trade for Syndergaard, I pointed out the glaring need for an ace, especially if we are to break a string of failures going back to 2002 in advancing beyond Rd. 1 of the playoffs. In a game that could have buried Cleveland for good, Berrios failed miserably. This follows a pattern in the last couple of years where he seems to wilt in pressure games. He is nowhere near an ace the Twins need! 2. I, too, am concerned about the team's all or nothing offense. They can pile it on in outbursts but seem to lack the professional clutch hitting necessary to win the close games. This is one reason I, as well as others on TD, are suggesting trading Sano, despite all his power, in a trade to bring back a quality #1 pitcher. I would rather see more consistent players like Gonzales and Arraez in the lineup than Sano. With other power hitters, Sano's value might be more useful as bait in a big trade. My idea to get Thor would be to add Gibson and Castro with Sano and some minor leaguers in a package deal. Seems to me like a win-win for both teams, albeit risky, no doubt. 3. Dependence on Rogers is bound to boomerang over a long season. Why Molitor wastes him with a four run lead in the ninth is totally mystifying. May continues to be prone to give up the big hit at the most inopportune times, despite his stellar stats. This narrative simply adds to the need for bringing in a shutdown closer sooner rather than later. The Twins played well this weekend but could have squeezed the life out of an Indian's squad that was on the ropes in the 7th inning of Game 3. I hope the FO looks at this team critically and uses the trade deadline to bolster a good team that is missing some essential cogs to elevate them to WS contention. Go big or go home!!

The Mets' GM has stated he wants the team to be competitive next year, not to go thru a rebuilding process. This attitude reflects the competitive market the Mets find themselves in - New York, where the Yankees reign supreme and where the fan base, unlike less competitive markets, is impatient for success. Van Wagenen showed his colors this offseason when he acquired Cano from Seattle in a flawed attempt to capture one more year of Cano's past success. The effort failed miserably, helping to fuel talk of additional major trades, beginning this month. Of course, any outside observer does not know what's in a GM's head, but if any one wants to rebound quickly it's Van Wagenen. His head is on the chopping block. Would he trade one of his greatest assets in Syndergaard for mere prospects, no matter how touted they are? My guess is he would be far more tempted to go after a two or three for one deal where new players could step right in and make an immediate difference, no matter what their contract status is. Castro and Gibson would not be expensive resigns and Sano has a couple more years of arbitration eligibility. Sure, the Twins would have to throw in some top 10 prospects, but with major-league-ready players coming to NY, not necessarily a top 3 or 4 ranked prospect. No one knows how either GM views these players. Perhaps Van Wagenen does not see an overwhelming need to add Sano or Castro or another major league starter, but this has to be more appealing than adding just future prospects. My take is Falvey could get a deal done if he is willing to trade some established players to NY and with an asset like Thor, the Twins should make every effort to get it done. The window is wide open now!!

Agree. Can't understand the clamor for a #3, at best, starter like Stroman, when the staff has 2 or 3 equal to or better than that. We need someone with playoff experience and who could anchor the rotation for years to come. Despite his down year, I have to believe Thor fits the bill and thus, would be worth an overpay. One would think the Mets would have to listen to a trade proposal that would land them three immediate starters in Sano, Castro and Gibson, along with a sweetener like Gordon, maybe Rooker and one of our less-heralded minor league starters like Romero, Gonzales or even Thorpe. That is a load! I would not give up Graterol as our minor league system is thin in top-of-the-rotation starters, unless of course the Mets would prefer him to Gibson. Aside from our FO's conservativism, there are some reasons why the trade might not happen. The Mets have Frazier at third and Ramos(at $10MM/yr) behind the plate. In addition they have Cano's albatross contract to contend with. So their willingness to trade Thor could be contingent on a team taking back one of these overloaded contracts. This could be a deal killer but it's worth the effort to "overwhelm" the Mets with an offer. Aces like Syndergaard don't come along often. Note he is arbitration eligible for the next 2 years, so if the Twins tie up Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda in longer term contracts, we would be set for several years in our rotation. What a breath of fresh air that would be for a franchise struggling to field a top rotation seemingly forever!

Latest from MLBTR : Mets would need overwhelming offer to trade Thor(or Matz). So what might this overwhelming offer look like? Well, who knows what value the Mets place on various Twins, but I would think that two regulars, e.g., Castro( a free agent next year) and Sano, along with a starter like Gibson who is also a free agent after this season, should go a long way to drawing their interest. The Twins might have to throw in one or two of their top 10 prospects(not named Kirillof or Lewis), depending again on the Mets' evaluation of our prospects. This would deplete the Twins major league roster, but Sano can be replaced by Gonzales, Castro by Garver and Gibson by Thor. There would still be a surplus of prospects to land one of the top closers available, especially if a rental. This would be a deal hard for the Mets to turn down, I believe. However, would Falvey take the risk? It really comes down to whether he believes Thor's decline this year is not a permanent thing but is due to a number of other factors. Prior to 2019, Thor has proven not only to be an ace in the regular season but also in the postseason. A trio of Thor, Berrios, and Odorizzi(or Pineda who looks better and better with each start) would be a formidable threesome in any playoff series. While the loss of Sano might come back to bite them, I don't feel his absence would hurt the offense(Marwin seems to be ab adequate run producer even if he's not the HR threat of Sano). This would be the kind of bold move that could boomerang but it also could make the Twins a legitimate WS contender this year and the years to come. Thor is only 26 and has two more years of arbitration eligibility. There is no one else at this age with ace potential that is likely to be available now or in the forteseeable future. Do I think such a scenario will actually occur? No, but it is fun to dream the impossible.

Lots of great ideas for what Falvey and company should be doing this month. If you believe,as I do, that this team is for real and with a few significant upgrades, have a realistic chance to go far in October, then half-way measures will be hard to take for us long-suffering fans. Hard to say if there is a greater need in the rotation or bullpen. Let's just agree both need upgrading for this team to approach quality of Yanks, Astros, or Dodgers. Yes, the bullpen has been somewhat of a surprise. Patched together with bandaids, it hasn't yet imploded. Rogers has been as advertised, Harper has been a pleasant surprise, and May gradually seems to be rounding into shape(though his control is still erratic). The rest of the pen is fraught with uncertainties but has certainly held its own so far. With this said, there can be little controversy over the widely shared idea that a shutdown closer must be added. They are available(see Smith, Giles, et.al. who are most likely available. In an ideal world, rather than wait for the July 31st trading frenzy, this FO should pick the top one or two relievers on the market and make offers that would be hard to refuse. Yes, we will probably overpay but our minor league depth is strong and we can afford to lose a couple of top 10 prospects for the right reliever. A top notch closer is a must for playoff success and hopefully, Falvey recognizes this and goes all in to get the right guy. Yes, one should be enough, but only if it is the best player available. Turning to the rotation, there seems to be some debate as to whether an addition is needed and, if so, what type of starter should be targeted. Playoffs tend to be low scoring affairs, dominated by great starting pitching. Knowing that the Yanks and Astros lurk, do we feel comfortable with either of our two top starters, Berrios or Odorizzi, bringing home that all important W in Game 1. Berrios is having a great year but count me as a doubter when it comes to that all important first game. His brief playoff appearance against the Yanks was not impressive and he seems to be less effective against the big offenses. Odorizzi is even less certain, particularly based on recent appearances. So, yes, a #1 starter would be a huge difference-maker to this team. This does not mean Stroman, nor does it mean present-day Baumgartner. Scherzer fits the bill but the likelihood of him being available is slim to none. This leaves two pitchers who might be available: Greinke or Thor. Greinke's cost in players might be reasonable if the Twins were willing to eat most of his remaining salary, but with the history of this franchise, the likelihood of paying $30MM/year seems close to zero. It is not in Falvey's or Pohlad's DNA. That leaves Thor, who I believe would be available for the right package. True, he has fallen off this year but still possesses the best tools of anyone in our rotation. He would bring a fear factor onto this staff that we currently lack. We should go all in for him and I would start with offering Sano as one of the prime pieces. He would fit the need for a major league starter. If the Mets were not interested, then one of our two catchers should be offered. Thor would also require at least one if not two of our top pitching prospects or perhaps they would prefer someone like Pineda to step right into their rotation. A bold move like this would electrify the team by showing that managment is committed to going all in this year. It would be franchise-shattering and more important, move this team into the elite group vying for a WS Championship. We are not there yet, but with the right moves, this club could break the 27 year drought!

This is arguably the best twins team since the 2006 team that got swept by the A's in the first round. Mauer and Morneau had MVP-type years, with a very good supporting cast in Tori, Cuddy, Bartlett and Castillo. That team had a bona fide ace in Santana, with a not so great Radke and Bonser as #2 & #3 starters, but a very good bullpen. One of the frustrations of the Ryan years was his inability/unwillingness to reinforce his division winning teams of the aughts by trading prospects for veterans by the July 31st deadline. His lack of activity still rankles! For Falvey to sit on his hands this month would be just as unforgivable. The inadequacies in the bullpen have been demonstrated fully, especially for a playoff run where shutdown relievers can make all the difference. Rogers is the only reliever who even approaches this level of competency. Would you want any of Harper, Parker, Duffy or McGill coming into a precarious situation late in a playoff game? Most on TD are pleading for not one, but two closer-types to be added to this over-achieving bullpen. You can't win in the playoffs with smoke and mirrors, Mr. Falvey. And while this is probably the best overall Twins' rotation in many years, there is no Johan Santana among this bunch. Not even close. Berrios has to be considered our "ace" but who believes he could go int Yankee Stadium or Houston and think he can shut down those two teams? Neither he nor Odorizzi have proven themselves in such pressure situations. You need a proven ace to have a solid chance in advancing in October. The Twins have the prospects, the depth and the payroll flexibility to acquire the likes of Greinke, Baumgartner, Thor or Wheeler, any of whom would likely start playoff game #1. What Falvine so far have lacked in their 3 years of managment is the cajones to pull the trigger on any meaningful trades. The window is wide open for this team but I'm afraid past disappointments will continue unless they pull the trigger, pay the price and bring in the best possible reinforcements available. Who knows when such an opportunity will again present itself? It is 27 years and counting. Twins fans deserve an all-out effort now! We had enough Ryan-like excuses for inaction to last a lifetime.

This is why I read your postings, Nick. You are a realist and support your arguments with facts rather than just opinions! As you noted, the window is wide open, Twins' fans are giddy and yet there is cause for concern, especially if we take the leap of faith that this is a playoff-bound team. No, this is not a slam dunk, but the not-so-surprising "collapse" by Cleveland(I for one wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox replace the Indians as the Twins principal competitor the rest of the season) and an 8 game lead certainly gives even the most ardent naysayers plenty of room for optimism. Based on results to date, we would certainly expect the FO to cast at least one eye towards the playoffs. With this thought in mind(hopefully), and with a paucity of reliable backend relievers(two at most as of now), is it too much to ask for the FO to recognize this need if they are to surpass the Ryan-led playoff teams in playoff success? Two late-inning shutdown relievers are a must if we are to have any success going deep into October. Kimbrel is a given, yet I personally don't think Falvine will outbid what is sure to be a list of suitors after the draft. Hope I'm wrong, but this still remains in my eyes a risk-averse group. Yes, they have done well this past offseason on the offensive side, and the rotation is certainly better than expected, but they have been derelict in their duties for counting on a bunch of castoffs and AAAA players to fill a bullpen. The window is wide open, the organizational depth gives them sufficient tradable assets and if they refuse to bid high on Kimbrel, they must get creative in the trading market. There is no dearth of good relievers on teams that have no chance of competing this year. Yes, it might be more difficult in May/June than nearer the deadline, but now is when they should be agressive in going after two difference makers to solidify a still questionnable pen. And looking ahead to October, does anyone truly feel comfortable with Berrios as our Game 1 starter? I sure don't; in fact, right now Odorizzi is steadier, but is he going to maintain this pace in the playoffs? He could, but I'd hate to count on that happening. The FO shouldn't either, which is why landing a playoff-experienced pitcher should be second on their wish list. Not necessarily now, but as we approach 7/31, some studs will likely be available, e.g., Baumgartner, maybe Greinke, or even Thor(unlikely). Summing up, Falvine should not be complacent here if their goal is the World Series. This is not an unreasonable goal given what we've seen, but there are some obvious holes to fill if those expectations are to be met. Let us hope the FO is as realistic as Nick and is at this moment burning up the trade wires. Chances like this occur very infrequently. Good managment should do everything possible to capitalize.

Keuchel would be a nice addition to any rotation, but he slots in at about a #3 or 4 in the current Twins' rotation. Don't think he's worth to the Twins $25MM/yr or even close to that. Yet he will be available in 4 weeks without giving up a draft pick or prospects, unlike any other starter who might be available. I would rather see the Twins spend money on Kimbrel to solidify the bullpen. Doubtful they will do both! As I've said above, think with the Twins in a strong position for a playoff berth, their second biggest need would be for a veteran starter who gives us a decent chance to win the first playoff game. I would hate to throw Berrios into that situation and expect to come out ahead. I still have visions of his performance in Yankee Stadium in 2017. Rather to give up players(Castro, and at least 2 of our top 10 minor leaguers) for someone like Greinke, Baumgartner or even Stroman(lesser choice). Such an addition could greatly help get us deeper into the playoffs. Overpaying for this one starter would be a small price to pay, IMO, to break a 16 year streak of not getting past the first round!

I get it about not overpaying, but pundits talk about the depth of our minor league system and with the window now wide open, why bot address the admitted weaknesses the team has: the bullpen and a thin rotation. As I mentioned above, no, I wouldn't trade one of our top 3 or 4 prospects fora 2 month rental, but nor should I have to if we waited for the deadline. But we should be floating names around like Gonzales, Gordon, Rooker, maybe Romero and a bunch of AA pitchers that could bring back a late inning reliever - our weakest current position. Maybe it is harder for a seller to pull the trigger earlier in the season, but for the right guy, it's worth overpaying rather than competing in the feeding frenzy that always occurs in late July. My main reasonj for doing something sooner rather than later is to widen the gap between us and the rest of the division before some of our guys fall back to earth. It is that important to keep up this early momentum. And what is wrong with contending for the title before our time? This is a fickle game; we could easily be derailed by injuries, falloff from some regulars, etc. next year. Go for the brass ring when the opportunity arises!

What is drastic? If we wait until trade deadline, it would mean getting 2 months of Baumgartner. Would I include Kiriloff or Lewis or Graterol? No, but anyone else would be on the table. Doubtful we would have to overpay for 2 mos. of a pitcher destined for free agency. But Baumgartner would just be 30, and while he slipped a bit the past two years, would easily slot in as a #2, and probably a leadoff starter in the playoffs. He is an experienced winner, just what we need in October. And if he proves valuable, we should try signing him to a longer term contract. What's wrong with tieing up someone who could be as valuable as Verlander? It worked for the Astros. I believe the minor leagues are for stockpiling talent, either to supplement the major league team or used as trade bait. If we could land a controllable starter for 2-3 years like a Stroman or THor, yes, I would overpay by including one of our top prospects. That's how valuable an ace is. And given the dearth of home-developed starters in this organization, who is to say how any of these prospects will perform at the Major League level? That's why taking a big risk when the window is wide open makes sense on so many levels, especially for a moribund franchise with dwindling attendance and 30 years of futility. A solid reliever wojuld not cost as much but is even more sorely needed sooner rather than later. For the right guy, I would overpay, not with one of our top 3 prospects, but certainly one top 10 prospect, especially in an area of surplus like outfielders or A/AA starter. It would be worth it to overpay more now than stick with the current bullpen thru July. Games lost in May, June and July are just as costly as later in the year.

Thanks for your response! I agree there is no dire need now, but good managment necessitates looking ahead and with the window now wide open, this is what a proactive FO should be doing. Yes, it's early(though 20% of season is gone), but certain obvious trends have emerged, not the least of which is an erratic bullpen. The stronger than expected rotation, supplemented by one of the most robust lineups in the league, have tended to mask some troubling trends in the bullpen. No doubt it has been okay, but that won't be enough in the heat of a pennant race. Guys like Rogers will run down if overused and no one else(with the possible exception of Parker) has been consistent, especially in late innings. I've had tp hold my breath every time Hildy or May come in, and they are the best of the rest. No, for sustained success, this team needs two more shutdown-type relievers. True, one might emerge from the current collection(Romero maybe?), so maybe only one outside addition in May might do it, but the depth is worrying and as many have pointed out could torpedo our chances to sustain our early season success. The point is, Falvey needs to be proactive now. The window is as open as it's going to get for now. Why wait until the Indians injured return and their two all stars heat up? Post season success is not for the meek(just ask Terry Ryan!).