mike8791

Ted, kudos on delving into an important issue the Twins face this offseason. Up the middle defense is important and the Twins need to improve there. Castro should improve the catching position, Buxton the CF position, and moving Polanco to 2B would likewise be an upgrade. But signing a good field, no-hit guy like Iglesias does little to address one of the main weaknesses on this team: a dearth of hitters! In my book, if we are going to contend in 2019(and that should be the intent of the wonder boys) bringing in more offense is a priority, especially if Castro and Buxton are regulars, Mauer retires, and Sano is traded(more on that later). So, Marwin and yes, Addison Russell(because his value is lowered with his 40 game suspension) are the most offensive-oriented SS available at a reasonable cost. The twins can ill afford another black hole in their lineup! Gordon cannot be depended on(and probably should be traded as part of a starting pitcher package), Lewis is 2 -3 years away and no one else in the system looks like a bona fide major leaguer. I believe Sano must be dangled, with some minor leaguers, to rebuilding teams who need prospects and a potential starter at 3B. The Mets and Giants both come to mind here. Matz, Wheeler or better yet, Snydergaard, could be pried loose, as could maybe Baumgartner. This type of trade would address the clear need for a #1 starter. Yes, losing Sano is a risk but one that should be taken, especially if the Twins go all out after Donaldson. Signing Cruz as the full-time DH would add to a much revitalized Twins lineup. Guys like Corbin, Machado, etc., are pipe dreams for the Twins franchise but some smart trades and FA signings could put the disappointing 2018 in the rear view mirror and help fill the gap until the next wave comes up.

Nick, you guys are finally warming up! Tom's plan to trade away important assets for a continuing rebuild makes little sense, particularly as it weakens our already mediocre rotation. And Seth's build-from-within plan is simply unrealistic given the porous "core" we simply cannot depend on to compete. Why kick away the opportunity to compete in 2019 when you have a mediocre division that only looks to get weaker with a cash-strapped Cleveland team contemplating listening to offers for their SPs and a Twins team flux with AAAA prospects and a large amount of cash to spend? Most fans hope to see a combination of FA signings and trades to fill obvious weaknesses in the lineup and staff, as you have done. A few specific comments on your ideas: 1. I like your addition of 3 newcomers to a shaky bullpen that badly needs at least two stoppers. I would only disagree with a trade for Iglesias, as FA relievers are in abundance and such a trade would deplete our tradable assets for more scarce commodities. Spend some of the money on top relievers(at least two)! 2. I applaud your idea of going after a top of the rotation starter, but don't believe a slim FA class would work(simply too much money chasing very few, if any, sure bets). Trading for a guy like Baumgartner, Matz or (third choice) Greineke by dangling a major league ready player(preferably Sano, but even Kepler) coupled with a couple of top 10 prospects(Gonzales, Romero, Gordon, e.g) should get it done. Obviously, at this juncture, we don't know who is available but the point is Falvine must be agressive in offering up at least one of the "core" players to secure an ace. 3. I think you are a little light in your new offense. Donaldson would indeed be first on my list of additions, but Nelson Cruz as a full-time DH is too tempting to pass up. Austin is a crap shoot and is pretty much an all or nothing type batter. Jose Iglesias does little for an already shaky lineup; Addison Russell is a bigger risk with a much better upside(and he will be made available). The Cubs badly need an infusion of younger pitching prospects that the Twins have in abundance. With these 3 additions, plus a veteran bat like Daniel Murphy or Matt Adams or Andrew McCutcheon for greater versatility, would be a quantum jump in offense that was so sorely lacking in 2018. 4. I would like at an extension for Berrios and Rosario, but not Buxton who must advance first before being rewarded. So save the money on Corbin, go the trade route for a starter, pack the bullpen with quality arms and beef up the offense big time. And don't encourage Mauer to return! He is a big offensive void at a power position. The Twins have the money to do these things. Do they have the will and the brains to make the right moves? If they don't make at least a couple of major moves early in the offseason I am afraid they will not be able to achieve the turnaround all Twins' fans crave. This is the critical offseason for the duo and the team! They better have a plan in place and pull it off or their tenure will be a short one.

Lots of fat to chew on in this chat, but let's throw a new wrinkle into the discussion. As reported in MLBTR: The Indians remain in a highly competitive stance coming out of the 2018 season, particularly in an exceedingly weak overall American League Central division. After three-straight divisional titles, the organization still has one of the game’s best — and most affordable — core talent groups. Still, there are plenty of needs on the roster and seemingly less resources to utilize to fulfill them. The club has in recent years both committed salary and dealt well-regarded prospects to supplement its fantastic bunch of stars. Given this state of affairs, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link), the Indians “will listen to trade offers” involving key veteran players. He specifically cites top hurlers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, along with pricey veterans such as Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes, and Jason Kipnis, as theoretical trade chips. Ok, just speculation for now, but by seemingly jettisoning Brantley, the Indians seem focused on budgetary constraints going into 2019. Their major advantage over the Twins is their starting foursome and if they are really looking at trading either Kluber or Carrasco, the balance of power shifts considerably in the AL Central, if the Twins are ready to capitalize. No, the Indians are not likely to trade one of these pitchers to an interdivision rival but such a possibility should force the Twins FO to concentrate even more on reeling in a #1/#2 starter as their top offseason priority and look at 2019 as a realistic playoff opportunity. My feeling is that Free Agency will not work for this organization for all the reasons cited in this thread, but trading one of our future "stars" should definitely be on the table to have a reasonable chance of landing someone like Baumgartner, Greineke, Matz, etc. Start with the determination of which one of Buxton/Sano has best chance to rebound and start sending out feelers on the other(I'm in the keep Buxton camp, btw). While Sano might not fetch the haul he would have a year ago, he still might have significant value to a rebuilding team seeking a talent-heavy package of prospects along with a major league ready power hitting 3B. If the Indians are indeed willing to trade one of their pitching stars, the Twins must jump at the opportunity of a widening window of contention. Right now as things stand with the two rosters the Twins have too many holes to make up to legitimately compete in 2019 but the combination of Twin additions and Indian losses can narrow that gap in a big hurry. I doubt whether Falvine will wait for the Cleveland FO to act this offseason but in any case, such news should propel them to greater efforts to add real difference-makers to this team in the offseason.

Glad you are addressing the preeminent issue of this offseason: should the Twins retrench as you suggest, go for it all in 2019 or is there some middle way? The difficulty with deciding now what should be done is we don't know how strong the "current core" really is. Without Sano and Buxton rebounding, there is not much of a core - Rosario, Berrios and maybe, Polanco. That's pretty slim pickings for a team with playoff aspirations. Your solution is to start over and wait for the new wave. The fallacy in this approach is that it ignores the vast amount of money available to spend as well as a pretty strong minor league system of our own. Pohlad doesn't need to bank the savings and if a few things bounce right for 2019, like either Sano or Buxton rebounding to near all-star performance(unlikely for both, but at least a 50:50 probability that one reemerges), then some sound FA investments, like two late inning BP arms, a genuine cleanup hitter(DH/! and a middle infielder with some pop might be enough to at least elevate this team back into contention. With the current FA market and lots of cash, this is all eminently doable with some shrewd FO maneuvering. No, free agency alone is not enough to get this team into the elite level but a couple of shrewd trades that could return a badly needed ace or #2 starter by giving up some of the quality in our minor league system and/or trading one of Sano/Buxton (yes, the choice of which one is a hard one but this managment team has seen these two for two seasons now and so should be able to predict which one is more likely to be a keeper. Yes, there is risk, but slotting at least one starter above Berrios is a must if this team is serious about contending in 2019. Trading, Kepler, Gibson and Odorizzi robs us of depth and pushes off the rebuild for at least two more years. I, too, have my reservations about the wonder boys but the fact they are unafraid to strike quickly is a positive trait. Yes, there have been some missteps along the way, but now they have cleared a lot of deadwood, there is ample room for maneuvering. This is their time to strike boldly, not to equivocate.

Yarnivek 1972: Not suggesting Sano or Buxton themselves would be enough to snare a #1 starter, but they could certainly be the centerpiece for a rebuilding team - much more so than a high MILB prospect. We have some minor league pitchers with some potential; I would not hesitate if some other team were interested in Stewart, Gonzales or even Romero, depending on the return. Just look at Berrios' splits against >.500 teams above. He is not the guy yet to lead this team in the playoffs. He didn't show it against Yanks last year, nor did he pitch well against top teams this year. He fattened up on Tigers, Sox and Royals, to name three. Berrios is an important cog but far from an ace!

(sorry, must have hit the wrong key). To continue, Buxton and Sano's potential stardom is well known around MLB. For periods, both have played like All Stars. I would fully explore going after a top of the rotation starter by dangling one ofb these players. This is the biggest hole this team has and the least likely to be filled internally or by FA. Berrios is a #3 starter(#2 at best), Gibson and Odorizzi are middling at best, and no minor leaguer comes close. Free Agency is a crap shoot and history shows this franchise will never be a player for a top-of-the-rotation free agent. Yet there are some intriguing players out there who might be available. While DeGrom is probably untouchable, Snydergaard would be a prize as would Baumgardner from the Giants. These teams are in rebuild mode and might be tempted to trade for a potential All Star. It is much easier to fill an OF position, especially in the Twins organization, with Kiriloff on the cusp and Cave looking like at the least an adequate major leaguer. Replacing Sano with a free agent like Donaldson would be an upgrade and certainly affordable for a team with the payroll flexibility this one has. Without a top starter, this team will not be a contender. Period! If the wonder boys do not actively explore the trade option, they are derelict in their duties. Much better to be proactive than sitting on one's hands hoping for improvement from Buxton/Sano!

Tom, your article is spot on. If the FO goes into next season counting on either or both of these players to be key to the season, they are not fulfilling their responsibilities. But there is a viable option here: fill another big hole by trading one

Nick, I always look forward yo your postings. They are well written, to the point, and lack the "Minnesota nice" slant that too many other posters seem hung up on. But(there's always a but I'm afraid), in this case I have to strenuously disagree with your conclusions. First of all, the FO has to look at this current roster under the magnifying glass and realistically determine if there is a core worth building upon in the offseason to legitimately compete with Cleveland next year' If the answer is yes, then Plan A should be implemented. In order of importance, here are the five things they must do: 1. Trade for a potential #1 starter who gives the team a legitimate shot at winning the first game of a playoff series. Berrios is not there yet and from what I've seen in big games, is very unlikely to morph into the ace needed for such competition. Hope I'm wrong but his dominant performances have been largely against sub-.500 teams. Potential trade targets: one of the Mets big three, Baumgartner, Greinke, or perhaps even Snell. We have some depth in our system and could put together a nice package of top prospects, including anyone not named Lewis or Kirillof(and for Snell or DeGrom, yes, I would include either). Forget FA for an ace - none are available and the Twins don't have it in their DNA to win a bidding war, which is not a bad thing. 2. Second, find a cleanup hitter probably thru FA who can rotate between DH/1B. This means finding someone who can fill the void left by Sano. No, I'm not giving up completely on Sano but to count on him to be the cleanup hitter would count as dereliction of duty by the FO. The Twins lack of a middle of the lineup hitter is a glaring hole and must be filled if they are going to contend next year. Nelson Cruz could be available, but there are a number of good hit/no field thumpers who are alsways available in the offseason. All it takes is money, which in the post-Mauer years, the Twins will have in abundance, should they choose to spend it. 3. Find two shutdown relievers who can handle the 8th and 9th innings. With the possible exception of Rogers who has shown some signs of being more than just a LOOGY, the other bullpen holdovers have shown nothing to indicate they can be counted on in critical game-saving situations. Lots of middle inning fillers, but a clear lack of closers. This is one of the most disappointing results of 2018, but it is the reality of the Twins' relief staff this year. Free agency is the only way to fix this mess and the Twins have to be prepared to be agressive if they are serious about contention. 4. As many have mentioned, finding a slick fielding SS should be on the FO's list. This would allow them to fill 2B with Polanco whose bat deserves inclusion in the lineup, but whose gl;ove is far too shaky to be the everyday shortstop. Aside from Iglesias, there should be other contenders so long as fielding, not hitting is the main criteria. Addison Russell on the Cubs might be available in trade and he would top my wish list if the Twins' minor league depth in pitching would be of interest. 5. Addition of a super sub/starting infielder(yes, Escobar would fill the bill nicely so long as his price is reasonable). There are too many questions in this infield, mainly at 3B, to go into next season without some reinforcement. It doesn't have to be an all star, but instead a solid veteran like Murphy for example would be a welcome addition. To rely on Sano to man any position full time is a fool's errand in my opinion(if he surprises with a comeback season, that's a bonus, but the FO should not assume anything). If they do, shame on them!! If all these needs are addressed in the right way, the Twins could contend again without changes in the OF or behind the plate. But if the FO feels there are just too many holes on the 25 man roster and cannot see a path to filling the five needs listed above, Plan B would be to go with a youth movement, as follows: 1. Put Buxton in CF and let him sink or swim(see #2 below). 2. Bring up Kiriloff, assuming he has a good spring training, and let him battle it out with Kepler or Buxton for starting outfielder. May the best man win! 3. Bring up Royce Lewis or Gordon at midseason(whoever is doing better) and give them the SS or 2B position for the rest of the year. 4. Give Romero a starting rotation spot out of spring training. He is the only Twins' minor leaguer who showed some potential as belonging on the major league staff. At midseason, promote the best minor league starter in the system to the major league rotation. 5. Bring Rooker up (at beginning or within first two months of season) and place him in the DH/1B rotation - assuming he continues to show progress in ST or in AAA. I am sceptical that Falvey and company could accomplish all five needs in Plan A(and let's be clear, all 5 scenarios are needed to adequately fill the holes that appeared in 2018). From what I have read about this FO, they do not seem inclined to accelerate development of young low minor leaguers, either, so Plan B is unlikely to be implemented and thus, we are probably looking at them to muddle through with half-hearted attempts to plug the glaring holes now present with better players than now on the roster, but by no means - difference-makers. The one bright spot with this middling approach is that Mollie would be gone some time in 2019 and a full-time rebuild could commence. In that case, assuming player development has improved, we might look forward to 2021 or 2022 as first years of real contention. In conclusion, as many TDers have said, this offseason is the true test of the FO's acumen and mettle. To land in the middle here is the worst of the three scenarios but this seems most likely to this observer, thereby dooming this organization to the dreaded middle of the road - neither total rebuild nor go for the brass ring. Hope I'm wrong, but this current ownership has shown no appetite to shoot any higher.

Gonsalves hasn't shown me anything. Soft slop that might bewilder AAA batters doesn't fool major leaguers. He reminds me of Tommy Milone. If his control isn't perfect or the ump isn't giving him the corners he's going to get clobbered when he has to throw the ball over the plate. I'm discouraged that the Twins are so high on him. Agree! Perhaps the takeaway here is to look at our prospects' walk rates. Look at Gonzales 4.8BB/9 rate in the minors. He obviously never overcame these inherent problems, as indicated by his putrid performance since his callup. What does this say about Colina in A Ball? Don't know where the cutoff should be, but using the BB criteria, Ober looks the superior prospect. The Twins have failed to develop a home grown ace since maybe Viola, despite having some top draft choices. Wish the Twins could figure this out, but in the meantime, no one on this list looks ready to change this void. If the Twins are going to surmount this glaring omission, they will have to put together a nice package of minor leaguers to secure a #1 in trade or be able to win a FA bidding contest with the big boys. After this year, I remain a deep sceptic in this organization's ability to develop true difference makers, especially in the pitching department.

Shouldn't the real question be: "Do the Twins want Mauer to return"? "Doing right by Joe" is not the real decision; instead, what is best for the team, given the alternatives, is the real issue for the FO and us fans.

Sorry Dickens' fans, this is about the Twins, the Cubs and White Sox. As a lifetime Senators/Twins fan and a longtime resident of Chicago, I've followed all three franchises quite closely - thru thick and thin. Don't worry, we're not going all the way back to 1961 - just wanted to review all three team's recent "rebuilds" and see what lessons we might draw, particularly in regards to the Falvey team going forward. Might as well start with the one success story, the Cubs under Epstein. Taking over after the 2011 season when the Cubs were 71-91, Theo and company took a meat ax to the roster and organization structure, with a corresponding drop in victory totals in 2012-2014 to 61, 66 and 73, respectively. While the farm system was not totally barren(Baez and Contreras had been drafted by the earlier regime), the Cubs essentially rebuilt the team by trades, starting with Anthony Rizzo, followed by such future stalwarts as Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrietta, Addison Russell, and Dereck Fowler. Benefitting from a high draft position, Kris Bryant was added, followed by Kyle Schwarber. Following the 2014 season, the Cubs used their deep pockets in the FA market by adding to the core Jon Lester, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward and John Lackey, The stage was set for a 24 win improvement to 2015 and, of course, a World Championship in 2016. This was not a fluke as the Cubs have averaged 97 wins in the regular season over the past five years, assuming they keep the same winning percentage the remainder of 2018. So, a huge success story here on the North Side. Let's remember it started with the Rickett's purchase of the Cubs and their subsequent stated commitment to end the 100+ year championship drought. They put their money where their mouth was by spending heavily for Epstein, arguably the best baseball executive on the market. In turn, Theo hired his guys, replaced many old Cub coaches and when Joe Maddon became available, jettisoned Rick Renteria and hired Maddon as manager. After the 2017 season, when the Cubs were bounced out of the NLCS by the Dodgers, Theo did not stand still. He fired the pitching coach and hitting coach, hiring two highly respected men in Jim Hickey from Tampa and a familiar name, Chili Davis, as hitting coach. In summary, Theo took three years to bring the Cubs back, primarily by trading whatever assets the club had, drafting astutely for a MVP in Bryant and when the team was coming together, dove into free agency, adding Jon Lester to anchor the staff and win the World Series in 2016. Their lineup is deep and talented and their rotation has remained on or near the top, abetted by timely additions such as Cole Hamels and Jose Quintana. The Cubs' future looks bright with a young lineup and deep rotation, especially if Yu Darvish returns to form. On the south side, with a lot less money but with the commitment by the owner for a complete rebuild, following up three mediocre seasons in 2014-2016(73,76 and 78 wins), Rick Hahn pulled the plug and unloaded Chris Sale, Adam Engel and Quintana. The results were unsurprising with a 95 loss season in 2017 and a certainty of another 90 loss season this year. But the improvement over the course of 2018 has been noticeable, with the Sox compiling a 16-11 record in August to date, including 11-3 on the road. If it weren't for two late inning bullpen implosions, they would have won 3 in a row against the Yankees in NY and last night against the Red Sox. What gives the southsiders hope for the future is a very talented future rotation, anchored by Carlos Rodon, with strong performances by Lopez, Giolito and now Kopech - the 100mph flame-thrower. Awaiting a call up is Eloy Jiminez, a top 3 minor league prospect obtained from the Cubs in the Quintana deal. Yes, the Sox have some holes, primarily their bullpen, but have some promising hitters who have shown signs of becoming legitimate major leaguers. The Sox are not in the Cubs' stratosphere but they have made some strong strides in year 2 of the rebuild and should push the Twins(in 2019) and Indians(in 2020), in this observer's opinion. So what parallels can we draw with the Twins' rebuild under Falvey. As many on TD have noted, the surprise success in 2017 has probably been a setback to the five year plan. Instead of continuing the rebuild this year, they kept their veteran players and tried to fill obvious holes in free agency in order to keep the momentum going. They cannot be criticized too severely for the 2018 slide, as the most egregious failures were from two supposed cores of the rebuild - Sano and Buxton. Falvey is not responsible for this and to his credit, finally unloaded players like Dozier who would not be a part of a future contender. It is too early to say how successful this year's selloff will be but early indications are that the Twins Minor League system is now in the top ten with possibilities of top 5 in the near future. What Falvey has failed to do is use the trade route, unlike the Cubs and Sox, to revamp the roster. Yes, I know he tried to trade Dozier a year ago and the market was supposedly not there. The only trade of note was picking up Odorizzi who looks like a competent #4 or #5 starter if he can ever figure out how to go deeper in the game. Pineda might be a future useful starter but certainly cannot be counted on. As things stand now, the rotation is far from solid and could very well fall behind the White Sox next year unless some significant additions are made. Ditto for a bullpen that is still looking for help from the minor leagues. While I do not expect the Twins to compete for the top free agents, they have the money this offseason to spend heavily, especially given the deep pockets(at least as deep as the Rickett's family) of Pohlad to add quality to the roster. I don't mean someone like Logan Morrison, Lynn or Rodney, but a true shutdown reliever and cleanup hitter. As for the rotation, no minor leaguer looks ready to help next year, at least based on year-to-date performance in the bigs. What Falvey must do to build on his first two years is to trade some of the existing minor league(or major league) talent for top starting pitching. If some other team likes Romero, Gordon, Gonzales, et.al., then take advantage and give them up for proven starters. Take the risk Ryan never would! And yes, if some team dangled a proven starter, don't be afraid to let Sano or Buxton go in the right deal. The Twins still have a young core that with a bit of luck, good FA signings and increased attention to trading for talent could contend again in the next two years. But if Falvey wants to attain the success that Theo has had( and that I think Hahn is about to have) then he must be active this offseason, take the kid gloves off and go for some top talent. If not, the Twins will be stuck in that dreaded middle quagmire so familiar to Twins' fans over the past umpteen years. Hope you've enjoyed this view from Chicago! Feel free to add your two cents!!

Lots of good comments. My grade is a B. Kudos for what looks like strong drafts, adapting(maybe too much in hindsight) well to a surprise 2017 season by seemingly plugging some obvious holes in 17's roster with FA additions, but most of all reacting well at the trade deadline by dumping players for prospects when determining the team was out of contention. It is so refreshing to see bold moves from a Twins' front office after years of mediocrity. With that said, they should be faulted for a couple of major coaching additions, namely the not insignificant hitting and pitching coach positions, neither of whom had the resume to think they would be able to make substantial improvements. And a sluggishness in changing managers and coaches in the minor leagues; instead, with a few notable exceptions, a look at the organization now vs. in 2016 shows more regurgitation that change despite the widely noted "complete system failure" in 2016. This offseason is critical in establishing this FO's legacy. There are a lot of holes to fill and if bold moves are not made, then a D or F grade is far more deserving.

Appreciate your comments. Here are a few more of my own: 1. Agree that 2020 looks like better chance to compete vs. Cleveland than 2019, primarily because their big three of of Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer are clearly superior to our top three, even should we acquire an ace this offseason. However, the FO would be making a mistake by conceding 19 to Cleveland. Just as 18 provided some major disappointments, with the right additions, 19 could prove better than it looks now by some marked improvements in the core(I'm looking at you - Sano, Buxton and Kepler) plus the additions mentioned above. To not make significant additions this offseason would be a dereliction of duties to both the fan base and the team. At the very least the FO must start narrowing the considerable gap that is so apparent, even if they fall a bit short in 19. 2. Have to disagree on keeping Mauer. His ceiling is pretty well established and it is not nearly sufficient for a power position. The FO cannot be bothered by adverse fan rx if they are going to build this team back to contention. It didn't stop them from trading Dozier and Escobar - why should it with Mauer? 3. We both agree that FA is by no means the complete answer to contention. But nor should we fall in love with our prized prospects if the right trade opportunities arise. This means all but Lewis and Kiriloff be on the trade table and for a clear #1 like DeGrom who is young and controllable, yes, I would put one of these two in a trade package. That is how valuable a stopper is to a team seeking to go deep into the playoffs. Falvey must pull the trigger if such an opportunity presents itself; otherwise, his "success" will be little different from TR's.

Thought I might add my two cents as to what is needed in the offseason to vault the Twins into playoff contention. It should be clear by now that there are simply too many holes on this current group to seriously believe they would be strong contenders next year without significant additions(we'll leave the Manager position to others for now). Here are my top three priorities for the FO to consider in the off season: 1. A #1 Starter -Yes, I know the starting rotation has been one of the stronger points of the team this year, which tells you all you need to know about the quality of the roster. While Berrios has taken a step forward, he simply is not the stopper you're looking for. Perhaps he'll develop into one but for now he is far too erratic to be counted on in big game situations,e.g., starting a playoff series. I've seen him against a full house here in Wrigley Field - he was awful! He has also been spotty against other top teams especially in the second half of the season. Gibson/Odorizzi are possibly adequate #3/#4 starters but again, on a playoff team, they have to rev it up a notch to give this team a more competitive rotation. While Romero gave us cause for optimism early, he simply was unable to sustain his run for long periods, either in the AL or AAA, and thus, while a favorite for next year's staff, is hardly a sure thing. -So easy to say we need a #1 starter but how to add one is a much more difficult proposition. First, Free Agency has to be viewed as far-fetched. Maybe a couple of big names available but what are the chances the Twins would land one of the few? Much better chance of trading for one, say Baumgartner, de Grom, Snydergaard, or Snell. It will be difficult, no doubt, but if the FO feels this team should be ready to compete in 2019, they must use their newly found minor league depth to trade for one. No, Gordon or Gonzales is not going to do it, but Rooker, Romero and one or two of our better single A players might get it done. The point is: the FO must be bold and sacrifice some of this accumulated minor league depth to roll the dice to get a #1 starter. Unlike Ryan, who could never bring himself to give up his prized prospects, I think Falvey is made of sterner stuff and will seize the opportunity(at least he should!). 2. A cleanup hitter - one good for 30-40HRs/100+ rbis. Counting on Sano to fill this position is a fool's errand at this point. If he regains his batting touch, great, but to count on such a recovery would doom us to a repeat of 2018. Just as hoping one of Rosario, Kepler, Austin, Cave will step up and fill the big bopper role is a sure bet to wreck contending chances for next year. Finding a free agent cleanup hitter in the AL is made easier with the DH and the cost would not be nearly as prohibitive as finding a #1 starter. There must be some veterans who will be available at a reasonable cost who can fill the DH/1B position and provide far more punch than our 2018 "cleanup" hitters have done. 3. A true Closer. Our bullpen is a mess right now and to count on any reliever on the current roster to fill the closer role, not to mention the 7th or 8th inning roles, would represent a clear dereliction of duties. But a true closer, not 41 year old, must be added. The Twins will have plenty of money to go out and buy a legitimate closer without another dumpster dive. A second top reliever should also be signed, thereby relieving the pressure on those lower down on the totem pole, e.g., Rodgers, Hildenberg and May - who all belong on a major league roster so long as they are not relied upon for late inning work. The rest of the current bullpen is highly suspect, as are the farm's AAAA relievers. Let's just chalk up the previous FO's attempts to expend high draft choices on relievers as an abject failure and move on under the new regime. All of these moves can and should be done. All it takes is money, courage and persistence. This offseason is the ultimate test for Falvey and Company. Their end of July dump was a very good start but it must be continued in the offseason, starting with Mauer, Santana, Morrison, Belisle, Grossman, and even next spring, Buxton and Sano if they haven't turned things around yet. Canning Molitor would be icing on the cake, but that can await next year's early season performance, assuming the FO has made the recommended moves. If the new FO is capable of building a championship, this offseason will be critical. The old regime's mistakes must now be recognized and moved away from. No more free rides!!

Seth, much as I appreciate your writeups, you have to take off your rose-colored glasses sometimes. Guys like Magill do not belong on a contender. As a reliever, you cannot be yielding more than one HR/5 IP. It's like adding oil to a fire at this rate. The real point here is that except for Rodgers the BP as it is now constituted is horrific! A top team has 3 shutdown relievers. The Twins have a 1/2 - Rodgers the LOOGY. The FO must do a much better job going forward. The upper minors are devoid of standout relievers(with a possible exception now of May who is still very unproven). The FO tried this last off season with decidedly mixed results. They must aim higher, spend the money on at least 2 top late inning relievers before we can even think of competing. As constituted, the current bullpen(even when buttressed in September) is a disaster. Please, Seth, let's look at reality, not a feel-good story.

Who on earth has Tyler Jay as a hot prospect? Jay's name was added as an example of the Twins failure to convert a very high draft pick(#6) into a major league producer(forget an all star). He obviously is no longer a high level prospect First of all, neither can be labeled a bust yet.Buxton rates to be at worst a 4th outfielder, and Sano if he gets his weight under control and fixes his swing, should be fine.I am sure a number of clubs would like to buy several of the Twins upper level players cheap.Just slow down and give it a year or two. We're talking probabilities here. Other than two months, has Buxton ever shown he can hit major league pitching and yet he was the #2 drafted player and on many prospect lists rated #1. To date he can no longer hit AAA pitching. And yet you hope he'll be a #4 OF!! I'd say that is a monumental failure. Sano has so many character and personal issues that one has to be a supreme optimist that he can ever live up to his potential. It's a very hard pill to swallow, I know, but its about time we faced the reality here, don't you think? I don't mind waiting for another year or two if I had faith that the systemic problems of this organization have been corrected. Call me old-fashioned but Falvey's reliance on statistics, together with his lackluster hires for hitting and pitching coaches, gives me little cause for optimism that the wonder boys are on the right path. They're an improvement over Ryan, but just incrementally so far. Jim Pohlad is still pulling the (purse) strings - and that's a bad thing!

Well Nick, nice try to put lipstick on a pig, but I for one don't buy it! Prospects are just that until they perform at least at a major league level. And the top teams are able to turn at least a few of their prospects into all stars. Just look at Cubs, Astros and Red Sox, not to speak of the big buck Yankees and Dodgers - all of whom are at or near the top of their divisions, not because of free agent signings or trades but because of successful drafting and development. How many all stars has the Twins' farm system developed since 2000? One pitcher, Radke, and now Berrios(an improving youngster but by no means arrived yet). Better on position players but still aside from Mauer and Morneau, no one who regularly appeared on the all star teams. To me, the failure of Buxton and Sano is the ultimate indictment of the Twins scouting and coaching system over the years, mainly under Ryan, of course, but the wonder boys have yet to show a desire to get rid of the Ryan-era coaches, starting at the top and all the way thru the minor league system. Yes, a bit early to throw Falvey under the bus, but if this highly rated Buxton/Sano duo cannot be trusted to lead the next Twins' playoff run, why should we have any faith that all these other prospects should? I'm sure there will be dissenting opinions on such a harsh indictment and hope is always eternal, but after this latest fiasco, what leads us to believe that these hot, low level players listed in the article (the AA and AAA rosters give little hope of any immediate injection of high performing major leaguers) will develop any better than Buxton and Sano in a Twins' system that has failed so miserably - a record that has produced one playoff series win in the last 26 years! The Buxton/Sano ship has sailed. To count on either(no less both) in the future is shear foolishness. The next round of hot prospects, including Gordon, Gonzales, Jay, Romero(better chance but still questionnable) each have major question marks, meaning we now must await the Lewis/Rooker/Kiriloff/Graterol era - maybe in 3-4 years. Why should we expect a different result in a Twins' organization so long steeped in ineptitude??

Getting into this belatedly, but kudos to Ted for putting the FO on the firing line, as well as all the great TD comments. My two cents, as a long-time Senators/Twins fan, who wants at least one more title in my lifetime: 1. When all is said and done, Jim Pohlad and ownership is ultimately responsible for this organization's success and failure. While replacing the Ryan regime was a long overdue move, there still remain questions as to the Pohlads' commitment to winning. Has anyone ever heard this man say he is committed to winning a championship? I know I never have and without such a statement to drive this franchise to that goal, chances are they never will. This total lack of commitment was illustrated by their obstinancy in sticking Falvey with Molitor and, need it be said, settling for two totally untested new executives who had never run anything in their professional lives(more on this later). Wouldn't McLeod from the hugely successful Epstein clan been more sensible? 2. A lot of TD readers have commented, rightfully I believe, that this season's failure cannot be placed at Falvey's feet. Last year was obviously a blip in the five year rebuild; instead, it probably will set back the rebuild by one or two years, unless the core re-emerges from their year-long slumber. Falvey and company had to resign the MOY Molitor and owed it to the team and fans to fill holes in the offseason that could catapult them into playoff contention, hopefully beyond a one game playoff. They spent money, picked up some (seemingly) solid vets and rolled the dice. The fact they lost key players and the core collapsed is not on them. It's on the players, the previous regime for high draft failures, and yes, continuing organization failure. 3. These excuses do not absolve Falvey from blame, however. They selected their two major coaches(hitting and pitching) from obscurity - in an offseason loaded with proven winners. As many have said previously, Rowson deserves some of the blame for the hitter's subpar performance. Is anyone surprised the yankees never saw fit to promote him to the major league club. The jury is still out on Alston, but his resume was scanty, and can anyone name a pitcher who has improved this year under his tutelage? Falvey's hiring of these two nonentities brings back chilling memories of Ryan's propensity for bottom fishing in the offseason. Again, aren't these two coaches far more important to player development than all the stat heads they've brought aboard? With all the suggestions from TD readers on this thread, I do not need to cover well tread ground, except to try to summarize what I think is the best way forward: 1. Barring a complete second half turnaround, Molitor must be fired, as well as his entire coaching staff at the end of the season. This will be the ultimate test of Pohlad's commitment to fielding a winner and Falvey's leadership to push this thru. If he can't, he should resign. It is clear to everyone that Mollie just doesn't have the needed leadership qualities to manage a championship team. Ownership must pony up the money and hire the best man available(Joe Maddon-like would be nice). 2. As many have pointed out, the rest of the season must be devoted to jettison players who will not be part of a contending club. The list is distressingly long: Mauer, Dozier, Morrison, Rodney, Duke, Grossman, Santana, Lynn. Enough of the retreads - better to look at what you really have in the minors, as well as Sano and Buxton. Bottom line: get started now on this plan before wasting another year or two on hopes and prayers. Players either perform or they're out. 3. A greater shakeup of their minor leagues needs to be done. There still remain too many holdovers from the old regime to know whether the old philosophies have been buried once and for all. So far, Falvey has brought in some replacements but left a lot of the old managers and coaches. Is Toby managing CR because of ability or heritage? The same pitching and hitting coaches still remain, for the most part. And what about the scouting department? One Johnson replaced another one. Is this a sweeping overhaul of a bunch that picked Stewart, Jay, Gordon at the top of the draft. No way of knowing who was responsible, but IMO, anyone still lingering from the Ryan regime should be canned. There just can be no compassion for failure to compete in today's game. And if all else fails and things continue drearily as they have for the past 8 years, perhaps a boycott by Twins' ticketholders will convince Pohlad his time is up and a new ownership group committed to winning is what the city and its fans really deserve. He can go back to banking where the P/L statement is most important. Carl would approve!

Carly148: Very thoughtful attitude! Now that it's quite evident that 2017 was more an aberration than a trend, it's worthwhile to reexamine Falvine's managment style, now that they have 1-1/2 years under their belt. A few observations: 1. The Pohlad/ St.Peter propensity for cheapness was apparent in their selection of Falvey over McLeod. Clearly, Falvey had not proven anything in his previous lower level jobs other than he was a great communicator and statistical maven. McLeod came from a much higher pedigree and while he is by no means solely responsible for Cubs' success, the fact he has been part of the Epstein team for so long should have tipped the scales in his favor. Knowing Pohlad's miserliness, is it too farfetched to believe money didn't play a big factor here? 2. The Twins' unexpected success in 2017 looks now more like a setback to the team's long term rebuild. First, they had to reup MOY Molitor despite the fact he has demonstrated little in the way of savvy game managment, has no apparent leadership qualities, and has the personality of a dishrag. As indication, why else was the organization so besotted with bringing aboard ex-Twins like Hunter, Cuddy, Hawkins and now, Belisle to provide "leadership" to the young players. I thought the manager and coaches were supposed to do that? Pretty damning indictment of Molitor, if you ask me. Secondly, the two month hitting surge that carried them thru August and September masked some very obvious weaknesses in the lineup. As others pointed out, Rosario is the only "core" player who has continued to progress. Pre-Falvey, all we have heard was that the Twins could build around their two emerging, super stars, Buxton and Sano, when the former had only 2 months of all-star production, and Sano, despite several good half seasons, showed enough character deficiencies in his minor and major league careers to date to seriously questiion his desire to succeed. While the clock is still ticking, if anyone in the Twins front office is still counting on these two to be the backbone of a championship team, their baseball acumen is sorely in question, to put it mildly. I'm afraid that ship has sailed and we need to look to the next round of prospects to emerge. 3. It's easy to second guess Falvey's 2017-2018 offseason but the fact is it was lauded by almost everyone. They bolstered the two most obvious weaknesses of the 2017 squad - the rotation and the bullpen. I believe our rotation has about a 1.00 improved ERA over last year, so a thumbs up there, especially considering their best pitcher from last year has still not appeared. The bullpen has not worked nearly as well, mainly because Reed has been a huge disappointment, Rodney has too many blown saves, Pressly has remained Pressly, and Duke is limited. Let's face it, the Ryan plan to bring in hard throwing bullpen arms via the draft has been a colossal failure, starting with #6 pick, Tyler Jay, and running down the list of Bard, Chargois, and all the other college arms that have failed. Why else did they have to recycle Belisle: there was no one else in their upper minors who showed anything once they had been called up. Probably the best outside addition has been the journeyman, Magill - a sad indictment for both the scouting department as well as the previous organization's minor league pitching development. But aside from Morrison, the Twins did nothing, other than the DH, to improve the lineup in 2018. The loss of Polance started the downhill spiral, but who knows if his late 2017 surge was a fluke like the rest of the core? The veterans, Dozier, Mauer and Morrison, are all showing severe signs of age or settling back to their norms. The results have been all too predictable: a putrid team batting average, little power , and terrible plate discipline. Just too many holes to plug, particularly with their best talent in the lower minors. But you really can't blame Falvey for not focusing on the offensive side when there were so many glaring holes on the pitching side. 4. Falvey was hired for his emphasis on statisyical analysis. His additions to the front office has seemingly revolved around the quantitative end. While I'm glad to see the Twins catching up in this area, managment must be rated more on their major personnel decisions and so far they basically punted. While I realize they can't be blamed for retaining Molitor, it should be obvious that he is not the guy to lead this team to the promised land. Bring in a guy with some fire in his belly - one who relates to youngsters, is enough of a disciplinarian to command respect(and a little fear) and is an inspiring leader. Maybe not now, but at the end of this dismal year at the latest! Just as important is a review of their hitting and pitching coach choices - two guys they plucked out of obscurity, with no major league track record so to speak. Sure, Rowand got kudos for last season's second half resurgence, but how about this year's flop? Alston was selected out of the blue despite the availability of some well-established major league pitching coaches available in the offseason. Is it too soon to say he, too, is a flop? No, but given his lack of experience, there remains major questions on his effectiveness, especially in helping to elevate some of the younger pitchers to the next level. In fairness, the entire Twins' pitching instruction in both the minors and majors have failed for years now, despite years of high draft picks. My fear is that Falvey, like Twins ownership, revels in saving a buck trying to find a diamond in the rough rather than going with proven performance. After all, he was hired due to Pohlad's penny-pinching preferences; is it reasonable that Falvey either has same philosophy or is under orders not to overspend on coaching and managers? These personnel decisions will become even more critical as the next "core" emerges, probably no sooner than 2020-21. Even if Falvey and company's drafts are far better than Ryan's(and that is by no means certain after just two drafts), he will need to be far more proactive in finding a manager and coaches at both the minor and major league levels to get the most out of this talent. Based on his actions to date, count me as sceptical. I hope I am wrong but until new ownership comes on board, I'm afraid this organization is doomed to mediocrity.

Great analysis, Nick. There is no logical reason for last year's and this year's Rule V decisions. This year is totally inexplainable for all the reasons Nick and others cited above. So why should a smart new managment team engage in such befuddling moves? One answer found in the comments strikes a vibrant chord - hubris. These guys have demonstrated they are out to prove to all the other 29 teams that they are smarter than everyone else. I can point to several other blatant examples of this "attitude": 1. With such a glaring need for pitching they drafted a shortstop rather than any one of 3 pitchers who were touted by many to be high ceiling pitchers. As many have pointed out, middle infield is a strength in the system, high ceiling pitching is not. Yes, much too soon to evaluate the pick(and this is no knock on Lewis) but wouldn't adding to pitching depth, especially college pitchers who could contribute far sooner than a HS SS, make more sense for this franchise? 2. The selection of an untried pitching coach, Alston, over several highly regarded major league pitching coaches who suddenly came available this offseason, ranks very high on their list of puzzling decisions. Are they smarter than 29 other organizations or are they just trying to prove how clever they are in unearthing a diamond in the rough who has never proven anything at the major league level. This was their most consequential decision in the off season to date and to this observer, it smacks more of hubris than anything else. We can conjure up a few other puzzling moves(41 year old Fernando Rodney as the new closer for one) but a pattern seems to be established to date: thjey want to prove they're the smartest men in the room rather than build on last season's success. Sounds to me more like an "Enron" scenario than "Moneyball".

There is no report from any of the local or national writers that the Twins have sat down yet with Darvish ala the Astros and Cubs(and soon the Rangers). Along with reports(see above) that Falvine is balking at a 6 year contract just adds further doubt to how sincere these feelers are emanating from Twins. Darvish is #1 free agent pitcher on the market. Six years is a given, IMO, if Twins are serious. Competing with the big boys means doing just that. Don't stand by the edge of the pool and watch the big fish be gobbled up. I thought new leadership would mean just that - a sharp departure from the old ways. It has been said well in other posts that Darvish is the big test for the new regime. If they are unwilling to go all in, they are merely pretenders who are all talk and no action. You can blame the Pohlad's penury or Falvine's unwillingnerss to take risks but in either case it doesn't bode well for the future if either of these two states of affair are still prevalent. Hope I have to eat my words but the trend so far is worrisome.

The MLB meetings are officially over and many more questions remain than have been answered for most organizations. While the lack of activity, especially among the top player categories, has been surprising, there are some tentative conclusions that can be drawn about Falvine and their impact on the Twins. We recognize the jury is still out until the dust settles, but let's stop for a moment to look at the state of the Twins as of now, at least. There has been much talk about the opening of the Twins' window for contention. Last year, coming off a 103 loss season, there was little chatter on these pages about the Twins emerging as contenders. Essentially, the Falvines were given a pass on their lack of roster additions a year ago because of the improbability of making a great leap forward in 2017. Well lo and behold, a miracle occurred, the Twins won 26 more games, made the playoffs and Molitor was MOY. No doubt Falvine was as surprised as the rest of us, even at the trade deadline when they sold off rather than added. While they were subject to much criticism at the time, their moves were generally looked at as positive in adding longer term depth to a very shaky pitching staff. Now there is much talk on TD about how close the Twins really are to contention, not just for a wild card berth again but for a real strong run deep into the post season. Should the Twins bide their time, see how sustainable their 2017 season was, and make bolder moves next offseason or even 2012 or should they go all in now? This is really a chicken and egg question. If managment does little more than they've done to date, they are basically treading water for 2018, hoping on a wing and prayer that the young hitting core continues to improve, the few veterans at least match 2017 results, and a fair number of one year vets or rookies surprise and become larger contributors to a winning team. But isn't it just as likely some backsliding will occur(as it did in 2016 vs. 2015) if certain holes aren't filled? The simple fact is that it is up to the boy wonders to make sure the window not only stays open but widens. This is what Epstein and company did as the core of position players was rounding into shape in 2014, resulting in them taking major steps in free agency by signing FA's like Lester and Lackey to bolster a thin starting staff. It should be emphasized that the Cubs also opened the window wider by making so many astute trades to land the likes of Hendriks, Rizzo, Russell and Arrietta - without ransacking their farm system. Brilliant trading and drafting, combined with astute FA signings, catapulted the Cubs to a World Championsip in 2016. Some on this board might dismiss this comparison to the Cubs as stretching the point, saying that the Cubs operate in a much bigger market than the Twins. When it comes to media dollars, this is true to a point but let us remember the Twins have greater attendance capabilities than the Cubs and an owner reportedly the richest in baseball. The big difference really in the two organizations is new Cubs' ownership committment to bringing a championship to Chicago and went right out to hire a front office and field manager to accomplish just that. Has anyone seen Twins' managment making similar pronouncements? Everything we've heard from Twins' ownership indicates they wil;l support Falvine in their efforts and that money is not the overriding concern. There are some promising hints that this offseason might represent a departure in that the Twins FO is making a concerted play fort Yu Darvish, probably the top FA pitcher on the market. If, indeed, they accomplish such a signing it will be long-needed signal to Twin fans accustomed to a reactionary FO that things really are changing and that Falvine is pro active in actually sending a strong message to the existing roster that they are going to do whatever is necessary to bring a winner to the twin cities. Not that the signing o Darvish alone would assure a widening of the window to the extent enough to compete with the Indians, Astros, Yankees, etc. in a playoff series. The signing of Rodney as closer is a step forward but by no means turns the bullpen into a position of strength. A shutdown 8th inning(or 9th) reliever is almost a must to jump to the next level. A real RH DH is critical to helping sustain and possibly improve the lineup. And most importantly, one more solid starter must be added to shore up a woeful back end of the rotation. Relying on Gibson and Mejia to be part of a playoff bound starting rotation is more in the category of a hope and prayer. With Mauer's contract coming off the books after 2018, this is the time to spend the dollars and take the risk of trading top minor leaguers to land one additional mid to top rotation starter. So opening the window further is strictly on Falvey at this time. If they fail to add Darvish, all this talk about "crushing it" will be just words. Yes, they have done some clever things regarding roster managment but it's all window dressing for now. They must realize that the core who outperformed so remarkably in 2017 needs help - lots of it. If they don't act in the next few weeks(most major moves are normally made before the holidays) to fill these very real holes, then they will have Failvined in their responsibilities. They will have flushed it, not crushed it. There can be no excuses any more. The opportunity is there for the taking if they have the b...s to go for it.

Nice writeup Nick. "Crushing it" is a bit hyperbolic at thios point, as others hjave pointed out, but their small moves have impressed so far - from the draft to their multiple player transactions to their recent use of intl. dollars. Compared to the Ryan regime, these moves appear almost miraculous. But before we annoit the new team the saviors of Twins baseball they face the most important month, December, in their year + regime. With the MLB meetings next week, you can expect to see a flurry of activity. From past years,one can expect the quality FA's and major trades to be completed by Xmas(although the Ohtani ordeal threatens some delay in the timing). The Twins need one top-of-the-rotation starter, another starter that can slot in at #4 or #5, at least two and preferably three shutdown relievers, and one RH DH/1B who can fit into the middle of the order. Yes,I know, this is a major shopping list but the time is right for the move. The lineup is expected to improve, the veterans, Santana, Mauer, and Dozier have one, maybe two years left, and our pitching staff is substandard. If the Twins fail to get one of the widely acknowledged top four FA starters they must do something that Ryan never did(at least with a successful outcome), that is, trade for a top starter, starting with names like Archer, Cobb, Stroman or Gerritt Cole by agressively packaging their prospects. This would not only bring the Twins closer to contention for playoff success but show the players, fans and organization that this is a managment committed to winning it all. That's why they were brought in(at least that was the hype) and if they fail in this task this offseason, then any accolades bestowed upon them will be just fluff. I like the way this new mgt. has built the farm system so far but for now these are just crumbs. They've really made three major decisions so far - hiring Rowson and Alston and rehiring Molitor. The Rowson hiring is too soon to grade, though last year's improvement in hitting was encouraging(was this Rowson's doing or the young core learning from more abs?). Molitor's rehiring was a gimmee after the Twin's 26 win improvement leading to MOY award. The Alston hiring is still troubling as the Twins whiffed on hiring one of 3 or 4 well established pitching coaches available this offseason. Hiring a proven pitching coach could only have hel;ped in attracting a better class of FA's. Do the wonder boys know more that other exdecutives by bypassing these proven PC's or awere they just a little too full of themselves in trying to outsmart the competition. Only time will tell but if they whiffed on the Alston pick the needed pitching improvement will be that much more difficult. Was it worth the risk?

I certainly can't fault mgt. for taking risks.. This was one of Ryan's greatest faults. Nor can I fault Falvine for not biting on a Dozier trade if the only return was Jose DeLeon(an unverified rumor btw). And one can give them a pass(sort of) on doing very little their first year when they were assessing organizational strengths and weaknesses(though the state of the bullpen at the end of 2016 demanded a more robust response than Belisle/Breslow, IMO). But I have to question the hubris of Falvey and company in addressing the team's biggest need, improved pitching, when they reach far out on the limb to grab Alston, an undistinguished lower minor league pitching coach who went from one organization to the next without much upward promotion. The question one has to ask is: are F&L really that much smarter than the most experienced GMs in the league who quickly scarfed up some of the elite pitching coaches available this offseason? We all agree that the Twins' window for competing at higher levels is opening now. Can they take such a risk with an unknown PC at this juncture? How will Alston's selection affect the team's ability this offseason to attract top pitching talent? Would Ohtani, for one, be more or less attracted to a team that rolled the dice on an unproven PC or would the presence of a Mike Maddox improve the Twins' admittedly low odds of attracting high end talent in the off season? Put me down for an "incomplete" grade for our year old managment team. So far they've nibbled at the edges and done a little dumpster diving. It would be foolhardy, I believe, to give them too much credit for the Twins' 26 win improvement last year. Their inherited roster accomplished this jump. Now it is up to them to fill the holes we all agree on. Can they accomplish this in the offseason is the big question? Time to separate themselves from the Timid Terry regime and go for broke now as their young core matures. No doubt, all Twin fans will be pulling for them to succeed. Are the Twins the next Cubs/Astros organization to emerge? Too soon to tell, but so far the biggest decision of the offseason, i.e., Alston, has not been a promising sign.

The one year anniversary of the new Falvine Team has come and gone. We have a year's activity to judge this duo and like any new management there are some pluses and minuses, as follows: PLUSES: 1. The Twins improved by 26 wins over 2016. In truth, even F&L's biggest supporters would be hard pressed to attribute this improvement to their actions, as the only FA signing was Juan Castro and while he was a noted improvement defensively, he didn't come close to Suzuki's offensive contribution with Atlanta in 2017. The improvement came primarily from Ryan's young nucleus that started to emerge in 2017, especially Buxton, Berrios, Rosario and to a lesser extent, Polanco. Good years from veteran holdovers Santana, Mauer and Dozier played a significant role, as well. 2. Hiring James Rowson as hitting coach. He has been given credit for working with young players like Buxton and Polanco for their second half surges. How much of this improvement is due to Rowson's tutelage and how much due to the individual's natural maturation is a relevant question, but there is little doubt that the Twins' were a much improved hitting team in 2017 and for this, Rowson should be given some credit, at the very least. 3.The double trade of Jamie Garcia. While steeped in controversy, Falvine's move to acquire a solid mid-rotation starter for a low level prospect was a refreshing change from the previous regime who rarely dipped into the trade mart in midseason, except for adding several veterans at the deadline when the Twins were very much in the race in the 2002-2010 seasons. More shocking was their dumping of Garcia at the deadline for two prospects. While ccriticized at the time for waving the white flag, year end results affirmed that this was the right move, adding two good prospects without losing much in the way of rotation depth. 4. The pickup of Colon, while pretty much derided at the time, proved important in stabilizing the rotation in August when the Twins surged back into the playoff race. While Bartolo showed his age in September, his contributions in August provided a huge lift to a team struggling to stay above water. MINUSES 1. Failure to significantly improve the bullpen. This was the most glaring omission in Falvine's 2016-2017 offseason. Bringing in Craig Breslow and Matt Belisle as the only two outside relievers was a mistake from day one of the 2017 season. The bullpen was a glaring weakness in 2016, yet despite a good number of FA's available, the duo was surprisingly passive in trying to improve the situation. One can fairly ask : what were they thinking? 2. Failure to agressively go after a right handed bat that could be the primary DH and provide some backup at 1B. With the large number of DH-types available, failing to improve upon Robby Grossman should be looked at as a glaring omission in last offseason. 3. The trade of Kinsler at the deadline failed to bring sufficient return(at least based on Wheeler's MILB record). Giving a talented closer up for peanuts made little sense at the time and less so as we go into the offseason still looking for 2-3 late inning shutdown relievers. It was fortuitous that Belisle managed to fill the hole adequately and that Busenitz and Hildenberger provided a surprising bridge to the closer. 4. The hiring of Garvin Alston as pitching coach. I know, I know - it is much too soon to damn this move before he even steps on the field, but there are two reasons to doubt the veracity of this move. First, he has a very undistinguished coaching career, having not been a pitching coach above the Single A Minor League Level, having more experience as a pitching rehab coordinator than pitching coordinator, having been fired after a couple months as San Diego's pitching rehab coordinator, and never having any major league pitching success. And yet our wonder boards went out on a limb and hired him because they thought he was a good communicator. And this decision was made in an offseason when such worthies as Mike Maddox, Carl Willis, Chris Bosio and Jim Hickey were all available. Are F&L so arrogant to think they know better than all the top baseball minds who went with proven pitching coaches because they see something no one else has?? I hope I am sorely mistaken about this choice but with an open window to improve the team, the risk/reward ratio seems perilous, at least as of now. We are now entering the most significant part of the offseason - the GM Mtgs this week and the Owner mtgs next month. It's too early to tell what our new team will do. After years of torpidity under Terry Ryan, we are all hoping that Falvine will be up to the task. This means not waiting until all the quality free agents have signed elsewhere; no more Ricky Nolasco-type signings; no more dumpster diving for washed up relievers; willingness to trade top prospects for bonafide major leaguers who can fill gaping voids at the head of the rotation and shutdown relievers. Early reports(and yes they are in the infancy stage as of now) indicate the Twins will be significant players for top end starters like Darvish or Arrietta. As most Twins Daily readers acknowledge, with no #1 or #2 starter types in their minor league system, if the Twins are going to make the big jump to compete with the Indians and Astros, they need to find at least one potential ace. Will they spend the money to do this. Pohlad has always been quoted as saying he will authorize the money when asked by his GM for the right player(s). Well, this is the time to do that! And while the FA pickings seem slim, Ohtani should be high on their radar(by which we mean more than just sniffing around). They have factors in their favor to make an all out pitch for this guy. If they wind up settling for their usual average pitcher then mark down this offseason as a failure. The need is clear, but is the will and determination there? Reports that they are seeking the Red's closer by trade do little to add to our confidence. Even us amateurs know that there are enough quality FA relievers available to significantly bolster the bullpen. Why give up 2 or 3 of their limited number of prospects for a reliever when their needs in the rotation are so much more glaring. I would hope that the Twins would consider trading said prospects for a stud starter than for a reliever. In any case, the duo will now have to produce - in a big way. Their creativity and moxie will be tested to the max in an offseason that is a seller's market for pitching. How they do will go a long way to see whether the Falvey/LaVine team will turn around our 26 years of futility and bring a championship back to the Twin Cities. The clock is ticking!