mike8791

Latest from MLBTR : Mets would need overwhelming offer to trade Thor(or Matz). So what might this overwhelming offer look like? Well, who knows what value the Mets place on various Twins, but I would think that two regulars, e.g., Castro( a free agent next year) and Sano, along with a starter like Gibson who is also a free agent after this season, should go a long way to drawing their interest. The Twins might have to throw in one or two of their top 10 prospects(not named Kirillof or Lewis), depending again on the Mets' evaluation of our prospects. This would deplete the Twins major league roster, but Sano can be replaced by Gonzales, Castro by Garver and Gibson by Thor. There would still be a surplus of prospects to land one of the top closers available, especially if a rental. This would be a deal hard for the Mets to turn down, I believe. However, would Falvey take the risk? It really comes down to whether he believes Thor's decline this year is not a permanent thing but is due to a number of other factors. Prior to 2019, Thor has proven not only to be an ace in the regular season but also in the postseason. A trio of Thor, Berrios, and Odorizzi(or Pineda who looks better and better with each start) would be a formidable threesome in any playoff series. While the loss of Sano might come back to bite them, I don't feel his absence would hurt the offense(Marwin seems to be ab adequate run producer even if he's not the HR threat of Sano). This would be the kind of bold move that could boomerang but it also could make the Twins a legitimate WS contender this year and the years to come. Thor is only 26 and has two more years of arbitration eligibility. There is no one else at this age with ace potential that is likely to be available now or in the forteseeable future. Do I think such a scenario will actually occur? No, but it is fun to dream the impossible.

Lots of great ideas for what Falvey and company should be doing this month. If you believe,as I do, that this team is for real and with a few significant upgrades, have a realistic chance to go far in October, then half-way measures will be hard to take for us long-suffering fans. Hard to say if there is a greater need in the rotation or bullpen. Let's just agree both need upgrading for this team to approach quality of Yanks, Astros, or Dodgers. Yes, the bullpen has been somewhat of a surprise. Patched together with bandaids, it hasn't yet imploded. Rogers has been as advertised, Harper has been a pleasant surprise, and May gradually seems to be rounding into shape(though his control is still erratic). The rest of the pen is fraught with uncertainties but has certainly held its own so far. With this said, there can be little controversy over the widely shared idea that a shutdown closer must be added. They are available(see Smith, Giles, et.al. who are most likely available. In an ideal world, rather than wait for the July 31st trading frenzy, this FO should pick the top one or two relievers on the market and make offers that would be hard to refuse. Yes, we will probably overpay but our minor league depth is strong and we can afford to lose a couple of top 10 prospects for the right reliever. A top notch closer is a must for playoff success and hopefully, Falvey recognizes this and goes all in to get the right guy. Yes, one should be enough, but only if it is the best player available. Turning to the rotation, there seems to be some debate as to whether an addition is needed and, if so, what type of starter should be targeted. Playoffs tend to be low scoring affairs, dominated by great starting pitching. Knowing that the Yanks and Astros lurk, do we feel comfortable with either of our two top starters, Berrios or Odorizzi, bringing home that all important W in Game 1. Berrios is having a great year but count me as a doubter when it comes to that all important first game. His brief playoff appearance against the Yanks was not impressive and he seems to be less effective against the big offenses. Odorizzi is even less certain, particularly based on recent appearances. So, yes, a #1 starter would be a huge difference-maker to this team. This does not mean Stroman, nor does it mean present-day Baumgartner. Scherzer fits the bill but the likelihood of him being available is slim to none. This leaves two pitchers who might be available: Greinke or Thor. Greinke's cost in players might be reasonable if the Twins were willing to eat most of his remaining salary, but with the history of this franchise, the likelihood of paying $30MM/year seems close to zero. It is not in Falvey's or Pohlad's DNA. That leaves Thor, who I believe would be available for the right package. True, he has fallen off this year but still possesses the best tools of anyone in our rotation. He would bring a fear factor onto this staff that we currently lack. We should go all in for him and I would start with offering Sano as one of the prime pieces. He would fit the need for a major league starter. If the Mets were not interested, then one of our two catchers should be offered. Thor would also require at least one if not two of our top pitching prospects or perhaps they would prefer someone like Pineda to step right into their rotation. A bold move like this would electrify the team by showing that managment is committed to going all in this year. It would be franchise-shattering and more important, move this team into the elite group vying for a WS Championship. We are not there yet, but with the right moves, this club could break the 27 year drought!

This is arguably the best twins team since the 2006 team that got swept by the A's in the first round. Mauer and Morneau had MVP-type years, with a very good supporting cast in Tori, Cuddy, Bartlett and Castillo. That team had a bona fide ace in Santana, with a not so great Radke and Bonser as #2 & #3 starters, but a very good bullpen. One of the frustrations of the Ryan years was his inability/unwillingness to reinforce his division winning teams of the aughts by trading prospects for veterans by the July 31st deadline. His lack of activity still rankles! For Falvey to sit on his hands this month would be just as unforgivable. The inadequacies in the bullpen have been demonstrated fully, especially for a playoff run where shutdown relievers can make all the difference. Rogers is the only reliever who even approaches this level of competency. Would you want any of Harper, Parker, Duffy or McGill coming into a precarious situation late in a playoff game? Most on TD are pleading for not one, but two closer-types to be added to this over-achieving bullpen. You can't win in the playoffs with smoke and mirrors, Mr. Falvey. And while this is probably the best overall Twins' rotation in many years, there is no Johan Santana among this bunch. Not even close. Berrios has to be considered our "ace" but who believes he could go int Yankee Stadium or Houston and think he can shut down those two teams? Neither he nor Odorizzi have proven themselves in such pressure situations. You need a proven ace to have a solid chance in advancing in October. The Twins have the prospects, the depth and the payroll flexibility to acquire the likes of Greinke, Baumgartner, Thor or Wheeler, any of whom would likely start playoff game #1. What Falvine so far have lacked in their 3 years of managment is the cajones to pull the trigger on any meaningful trades. The window is wide open for this team but I'm afraid past disappointments will continue unless they pull the trigger, pay the price and bring in the best possible reinforcements available. Who knows when such an opportunity will again present itself? It is 27 years and counting. Twins fans deserve an all-out effort now! We had enough Ryan-like excuses for inaction to last a lifetime.

This is why I read your postings, Nick. You are a realist and support your arguments with facts rather than just opinions! As you noted, the window is wide open, Twins' fans are giddy and yet there is cause for concern, especially if we take the leap of faith that this is a playoff-bound team. No, this is not a slam dunk, but the not-so-surprising "collapse" by Cleveland(I for one wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox replace the Indians as the Twins principal competitor the rest of the season) and an 8 game lead certainly gives even the most ardent naysayers plenty of room for optimism. Based on results to date, we would certainly expect the FO to cast at least one eye towards the playoffs. With this thought in mind(hopefully), and with a paucity of reliable backend relievers(two at most as of now), is it too much to ask for the FO to recognize this need if they are to surpass the Ryan-led playoff teams in playoff success? Two late-inning shutdown relievers are a must if we are to have any success going deep into October. Kimbrel is a given, yet I personally don't think Falvine will outbid what is sure to be a list of suitors after the draft. Hope I'm wrong, but this still remains in my eyes a risk-averse group. Yes, they have done well this past offseason on the offensive side, and the rotation is certainly better than expected, but they have been derelict in their duties for counting on a bunch of castoffs and AAAA players to fill a bullpen. The window is wide open, the organizational depth gives them sufficient tradable assets and if they refuse to bid high on Kimbrel, they must get creative in the trading market. There is no dearth of good relievers on teams that have no chance of competing this year. Yes, it might be more difficult in May/June than nearer the deadline, but now is when they should be agressive in going after two difference makers to solidify a still questionnable pen. And looking ahead to October, does anyone truly feel comfortable with Berrios as our Game 1 starter? I sure don't; in fact, right now Odorizzi is steadier, but is he going to maintain this pace in the playoffs? He could, but I'd hate to count on that happening. The FO shouldn't either, which is why landing a playoff-experienced pitcher should be second on their wish list. Not necessarily now, but as we approach 7/31, some studs will likely be available, e.g., Baumgartner, maybe Greinke, or even Thor(unlikely). Summing up, Falvine should not be complacent here if their goal is the World Series. This is not an unreasonable goal given what we've seen, but there are some obvious holes to fill if those expectations are to be met. Let us hope the FO is as realistic as Nick and is at this moment burning up the trade wires. Chances like this occur very infrequently. Good managment should do everything possible to capitalize.

Keuchel would be a nice addition to any rotation, but he slots in at about a #3 or 4 in the current Twins' rotation. Don't think he's worth to the Twins $25MM/yr or even close to that. Yet he will be available in 4 weeks without giving up a draft pick or prospects, unlike any other starter who might be available. I would rather see the Twins spend money on Kimbrel to solidify the bullpen. Doubtful they will do both! As I've said above, think with the Twins in a strong position for a playoff berth, their second biggest need would be for a veteran starter who gives us a decent chance to win the first playoff game. I would hate to throw Berrios into that situation and expect to come out ahead. I still have visions of his performance in Yankee Stadium in 2017. Rather to give up players(Castro, and at least 2 of our top 10 minor leaguers) for someone like Greinke, Baumgartner or even Stroman(lesser choice). Such an addition could greatly help get us deeper into the playoffs. Overpaying for this one starter would be a small price to pay, IMO, to break a 16 year streak of not getting past the first round!

I get it about not overpaying, but pundits talk about the depth of our minor league system and with the window now wide open, why bot address the admitted weaknesses the team has: the bullpen and a thin rotation. As I mentioned above, no, I wouldn't trade one of our top 3 or 4 prospects fora 2 month rental, but nor should I have to if we waited for the deadline. But we should be floating names around like Gonzales, Gordon, Rooker, maybe Romero and a bunch of AA pitchers that could bring back a late inning reliever - our weakest current position. Maybe it is harder for a seller to pull the trigger earlier in the season, but for the right guy, it's worth overpaying rather than competing in the feeding frenzy that always occurs in late July. My main reasonj for doing something sooner rather than later is to widen the gap between us and the rest of the division before some of our guys fall back to earth. It is that important to keep up this early momentum. And what is wrong with contending for the title before our time? This is a fickle game; we could easily be derailed by injuries, falloff from some regulars, etc. next year. Go for the brass ring when the opportunity arises!

What is drastic? If we wait until trade deadline, it would mean getting 2 months of Baumgartner. Would I include Kiriloff or Lewis or Graterol? No, but anyone else would be on the table. Doubtful we would have to overpay for 2 mos. of a pitcher destined for free agency. But Baumgartner would just be 30, and while he slipped a bit the past two years, would easily slot in as a #2, and probably a leadoff starter in the playoffs. He is an experienced winner, just what we need in October. And if he proves valuable, we should try signing him to a longer term contract. What's wrong with tieing up someone who could be as valuable as Verlander? It worked for the Astros. I believe the minor leagues are for stockpiling talent, either to supplement the major league team or used as trade bait. If we could land a controllable starter for 2-3 years like a Stroman or THor, yes, I would overpay by including one of our top prospects. That's how valuable an ace is. And given the dearth of home-developed starters in this organization, who is to say how any of these prospects will perform at the Major League level? That's why taking a big risk when the window is wide open makes sense on so many levels, especially for a moribund franchise with dwindling attendance and 30 years of futility. A solid reliever wojuld not cost as much but is even more sorely needed sooner rather than later. For the right guy, I would overpay, not with one of our top 3 prospects, but certainly one top 10 prospect, especially in an area of surplus like outfielders or A/AA starter. It would be worth it to overpay more now than stick with the current bullpen thru July. Games lost in May, June and July are just as costly as later in the year.

Thanks for your response! I agree there is no dire need now, but good managment necessitates looking ahead and with the window now wide open, this is what a proactive FO should be doing. Yes, it's early(though 20% of season is gone), but certain obvious trends have emerged, not the least of which is an erratic bullpen. The stronger than expected rotation, supplemented by one of the most robust lineups in the league, have tended to mask some troubling trends in the bullpen. No doubt it has been okay, but that won't be enough in the heat of a pennant race. Guys like Rogers will run down if overused and no one else(with the possible exception of Parker) has been consistent, especially in late innings. I've had tp hold my breath every time Hildy or May come in, and they are the best of the rest. No, for sustained success, this team needs two more shutdown-type relievers. True, one might emerge from the current collection(Romero maybe?), so maybe only one outside addition in May might do it, but the depth is worrying and as many have pointed out could torpedo our chances to sustain our early season success. The point is, Falvey needs to be proactive now. The window is as open as it's going to get for now. Why wait until the Indians injured return and their two all stars heat up? Post season success is not for the meek(just ask Terry Ryan!).

Most of us gnashed our teeth this past offseason when we heard the new team's philosophy that there is no reason to go all in until "the window is open". I say gnashed out teeth because many of us asked the question: how do you open the window wider without adding significant outside talent? But Falvine stubbornly held the course by passing on virtually every available free agent reliever, despite a woefully undermanned existing bullpen. Surprising to many the Twins got off to a great start, sitting on top of the AL Central by 3 games, 9 games over .500. Hard to criticize the FO now, but looking a bit beyond the results to date, there are certainly some hurdles to overcome if the Twins have hopes of sustaining this early season success. The batting order has been robust, as hoped, with the new additions filling serious holes in the lineup. Add in positive starts by Polanco, Kepler, Buxton, Garver and the Turtle, one can see why the Twins have been in the top tier of lineups, particularly slugging. With Sano's expected return in a week or so, this lineup should remain in the top 5 in the AL for quite some time. No obvious needs now for supplementing the lineup. The rotation has been good, as well. Berrios has elevated his game like we all hoped, Odorizzi has made a sizable jump over last year's lackluster season, Gibson seems to be rounding into shape(though we'll hold our breath until he achieves more positive results against top lineups), and Perez has been the most pleasant surprise of all - so kudos to the FO for the results to date. The problem is the team is one major injury away from going from a respectable rotation to a below-average one. Pineda has proven unreliable and there is certainly no one at Rochester who can step in and contribute. Let's face it : Twins' home grown phenoms have phlubbed badly so far - Gonzales, Romero, Stewart. Others expected to provide depth like Mejia, Littell have pretty much fallen on their faces at the big league level. It would be naive, to say the least, to think the Twins have a deep enough rotation to sustain this success over an entire season. Then we come to the bullpen, a widely recognized(except by the Wonder Boys) achilles heel of the 2019 club. After 29 games in the season, the bullpen has largely held together, but can we expect this to continue thru the long summer months? Looking at the pen realistically, only Rogers seems to have continued to solidify his late-inning role. Parker has been good but the jury is still out on a guy DFAed by a woeful Angels club. Hildenberger has looked like an ace at times, and yet his poor inherited runners scored averages still raises doubt as to his long term dependability. May has been a disappointment and while Harper has looked good, his peripherals are shaky and one doubts whether he could be counted on in the heat of a pennant race. As seen by the revolving door with Rochester, no one else has shown any promise, nor is there anyone on the AAA roster who looks capable of providing needed relief. Amazing how badly this organization has whiffed on their drafted pitchers! In summary, April has been a pleasant surprise and has obviously opened our window for contention a bit wider than expected. But the major development in the first 30 games has been the Indians' injury problems, especially in their starting staff. No team can sustain losses of a Kluber and Clevinger without a falloff in performance. Their bullpen was not reinforced over the winter(sound familiar), nor was their lineup improved. It is pretty obvious that the AL Central is ripe for the plucking, especially with the continued rebuilding by the Sox, Tigers, and Royals. So Mr. Falvey, the window is wide open! What are you going to do about it? In baseball, as well as in war, if your opponent is down, you don't go into a defensive shell and hope to hang on. This is the time to capitalize on their misfortune and try to bury them! While it is early in the season, the FO should be planning to go full throttle as soon as possible. First, by trade or by signing, they need to add at least two late-inning relievers to slot at or above Rogers. Obviously, Kimbrel is still available, but at this point, most teams are in a waiting mode until the June draft, after which Kimbrel will not cost a draft choice. Then, let the bidding begin. A far more proactive approach would be to use some of our surplus(outfielders, catchers, lower level minor league prospects) to pry loose one or two relievers from obvious non-contenders. All it takes is resolve and ability to take some risks. Better sooner rather than later if we want to build on our lead rather than tread water. Failure to bolster the bullpen will almost surely result in the FO's early season prophecy of the window not being open yet to come true. And after (hopefully) addressing the pen issues, the FO will figure out a way to pry loose a veteran starter who can slot into the #1 position in the rotation. This is important not only to guard against a lack of depth but also provide the team a much better chance of succeeding in the playoffs(think back to 1991 to remember what that feels like). There are pitchers like Greinke, Baumgartner, Stroman, perhaps Thor or Wheeler who will be available as we approach the trading deadline. All it takes is an agressiveness on the part of Falvey to pull the trigger, trade one or two of our top prospects(in a pretty deep system, at least at lower levels) and give this team a chance to go well into October, for the first time in almost 30 years. It's time, Mr. Falvey. You've made a lot of progress but don't sit on your laurels. The window of contention is now wide open! Do something!!!

Agree that '87 was more of a fluke BUT MacPhail added some key players prior to the season: Jeff Reardon, Juan Berenguer, Dan Gladden, and Al Neumann - each of whom filled some serious holes in their lineup. Would this team have won 85 games without these additions? Very doubtful. Just look at Reardon's and Berenguer's contributions. They were the bullpen. This was by no means a great Twins team, just one that gelled at the right time! After seeing a discouraging last place finish in 1990, MacPhail could have sat on his hands in the offseason; instead, he went out and signed Jack Morris and Chili Davis. Presto, the Twins had their DH and #1 starter added to their core. Didn't hurt that two rookies - Knoblach and Erickson - performed at an all star level. This was a very solid team with three strong starters, outstanding bullpen(remember Carl Willis was an off-season pickup who anchored the bullpen) and strong lineup with very few holes. No, they would not have been preseason favorites but certainly expectations were much higher after these key additions. Are there lessons here for Falvine? I guess that depends on your assessment of the current lineup, but to me an addition like Morris and Reardon would make this team much more competitive than the current roster. Yes, it would be some leap of faith to expect one or two more additions to move the needle considerably, but that did not stop MacPhail from pouncing when the opportunity arose.

Thanks Doc! Read your post and agree with your main contention that the Twins FO does not really know who this team is yet. Sano and Buxton's regression last year threw a big monkey wrench into the rebuild. No doubt! But here is where we diverge. An agressive FO would look at the offseason as an opportunity to fill glaring holes in an effort to improve the team, no matter what Sano/Buxton do going forward. They did this to some extent with the Cruz signing(their most positive move), somewhat less so with Marwin's addition(less so because all he really does is replace Escobar), and just a maybe with Cron and Schoop, both of whom are hardly established major leaguers, though with some intriguing upside. So give them a B to B+ grade on the offensive side. But as you point out their biggest weakness is the bullpen and the single addition of Parker, released by a very ordinary Angel's team, hardle answers the question of who will close out games. Yes, there are some potential closers on the roster, but all with big question marks. One might emerge, but how many blown saves will occur until that situation is resolved? Robertsomn or Kimbrel would have filled the void without endangering future years' budgets. Without such a proven closer, Twins' chances to contend for the Central Title still look like a long shot. And even with the addition of such a proven closer, what could we expect with the Twins' rotation in a playoff series? Berrios is simply not an ace. Just look at his record against plus .500 teams last year. Not very assuring for big game success. The Twins needed to add an ace and given their "talk" months ago of using their stronger minor league system to package some top prospects to a rebuilding team, I was hopeful they could pull something off. But they chose to play conservative and as you say their one new starter, Perez, is a slap in the face to Twin fans hopeful of taking a big step forward in 2019. Hence, my overall grade of a C. Their passivity in waiting to see what they have is more than frustrating. Why not take advantage of their salary flexibility and add some impact players who could vault this team into real contention, no matter what Sano/Buxton accomplish. They fortified the lineup, have enough bench strength now to fill the holes Sano and Buxton could be again, and just think what their playoff chances would be if even one of these two produced as expected in 2019? This is not farfetched even without a Machado and/or Harper(I never would support such huge long term contracts anyway). My argument is that this FO is risk averse(probably a reflection of ownership's own passivity in going all out to win) and thus, destined to plod along in the dreaded middle of the pack without a good chance to compete with the big boys. This is unacceptable to us Twin fans who still remember the thrill of 1987/1991. Why is mediocrity so acceptable in the Twin Cities. It would never be tolerated here in Chicago!

Now that Marwin is on board, thought it would be a good idea to review the Twins' grade for the 18/19 offseason. Prior to this latest move, I would have given the FO a solid C for their efforts to date. A very positive step was taken by the Cruz signing, estimably their biggest FA signing of the winter. Finally, the team has a bona fide DH. When is the last time we can say that? Their signing of 2B Schoop also was a positive one, given his age and previous ML success, at least up until 2018. Who can object to a medium risk/high reward guy, especially when the Twins' 2018 2B production was so putrid. The fact that it was only a one year contract was also wise in that it doesn't block a Gordon or Lewis from making the 25 man roster should their minor league efforts demand it. The Gonzalez signing is also a plus, given his versatility and offensive advantages over Adrianza. More importantly, he provides much needed insurance against another subpar season by Sano or Schoop. Plaudits to the FO on this one. So why just a "C" grade? Good question. We can look at Cron and Parker's signings as positives but in reality they don't move the needle much, at least for me. Cron is nothing more than a journeyman who had one above average offensive year; likewise with Parker who at best is a middle inning filler in the bullpen, not the shutdown reliever needed. But the real reason for a meh "C" Grade is that the FO has not filled the team's two biggest needs - a proven shutdown closer and a #1 0r 2 starter who would give the team a reasonable chance of winning a playoff game. The bullpen need is the most glaring in that everyone currently on the roster is either inexperienced or coming off a shaky 2018 season. As currently constructed, this is a high risk collection that gives no assurance of any improvement over last year's mediocre group. Yes, it seems a no-brainer would be the addition of Craig Kimbel to fill the closer role. Such an addition would move the offseason grade up to a "B". That's how critical the gap is now. Bewilderingly, the FO is playing coy, again waiting for the price to fall to a bargain bin level. The Twins are fortunate one dominant reliever remains unsigned. It would be a dereliction of duties not to get this done! And yes, even in the unlikely event that Kimbrel signs with the Twins(and let's be clear, he is the only one left who would move the needle), the Twins offseason grade would still be no higher than a B. Why? Because their rotation is average at best - loaded with question marks. Berrios has not proven to be an ace, Gibson is a #3 at best, Odorizzi and Pineda are big question marks, and the #5 spot is a crap shoot. With Romero slated for the bullpen(perhaps the offseason's biggest disappointment) the team has no promising pitcher in the high minors who might be considered a future ace. Falvey/Lavine indicated earlier in the fall that, with the improvement in their minor league system, they would be inclined to look to the trade market rather than FA to fill some holes. Well, that ship seems to have sailed! No, free agency did not offer much(I'm looking at you Dallas) but there were some possible trade candidates who might have been pried loose given an attractive package of prospects. True, this is all speculation for now, but the FO if really intending to be playoff-bound needed to take some bold moves here and didn't. We can only hope the team will somehow rebound, be in contention at the trade deadline and be unafraid to pull the trigger to acquire a top-of-the rotation starter, like Greinke, Baumgartner, Thor, Wheeler, even Snell, if these teams are noncontenders. I am not too hopeful that this FO will take these two necessary steps but, like with the Marwin signing, here's hoping they have a few surprises in store. If so, it would be a refreshing break from the mediocrity we have come to expect from the Twins' organization over the past 27 years!

Just a few additional comments to a very well written posts: 1. Most of us question the value of players who've been DFAed. Signing Schoop might be a good under the radar signing for the longer term, but Cron and Parker have had journeymen careers and are crap shoots going forward. A FO building to win now would go for Paul Goldschmidt. Our minor leagues are reinforced. Use these pieces to get a guy like Goldschmidt from a Dback team rebuilding. Not like we have any other 1B in the organization with all star potential. 2. The Perez signing is another crap shoot. This guy has shown nothing in his major league career and the fact that a Texas team woefully undermanned in their rotation DFAed him is pretty telling. Does Levine know something that no one else in the Ranger organization does? 3. As you, yourself, have noted, there was no excuse for a hungry and far-sighted organization to spend the dollars on David Robertson(or Craig Kimbrel) to fill a glaring closer hole. As many on this board noted, there is nothing more disheartening to a young team than to blow late inning leads. What good is it if they finally settle on a Reed or May or Romero in that role by July, when lack of said closer in April and May leads to bowing out of contention by the trade deadline? This is the lack of resolve that has infuriated the TD community. Sign Kimbrel and all will be forgiven. But does anyone think that will happen with this organization? 4. And finally, in their third hot stove offseason, this dynamic duo has completed one low level trade - Odorizzi! No, I don't count dumping veterans in July when the team is out of it. Again, if this FO was really all in to contend in 2019 they should leave no stone unturned to find at least one starter to slot ahead of a still evolving Berrios. Without a clear #1 or 2 starter, their chances to get past a first round playoff series is slim and none. Why couldn't they be proactive, package one of their stalled prospects(Sano is my choice), a top 10 prospect, and some filler to land a true ace, e.g., Thor Wheeler from the Mets, Greinke or Baumgartner. On MLB.com, one of the writers suggested a Buxton for Jon Gray trade. Very risky but when your farm system is not producing pitching, these risks must be taken in a winning organization. Instead, it is pretty clear Falvine is going to sink or swim on Sano/Buxton's 2019 performance. Oh yes, signing Josh Davidson after Sano was traded might not have been a bad Plan B. Hope I'm wrong here and we see a big rebound in 2019 but this has been such a very uninspiring offseason that I find it difficult to envision this happening unless just about everything breaks right. Do I blame the new FO for this? Not entirely. Pohlad the banker got just what he wanted - a pair that are not risk takers and who buy into the Twins way that investing money for a top free agent is not a valid approach. Tweaking the edges is good enough when all ownership wants is to make money year after year rather than invest big one or two years to produce bigger rewards in the future. Who needs Machado or Harper or Kimbrel when we can still make a profit with mediocrity.

I didn't realize the dumpster was that deep! Who needs Robertson, Herrera, Ottavino, Allen, et.al.... we got Perez!!!!. The Wonder Boys strike(out) again! I didn't realize hubris was spelled F-A-L-V-I-N-E.

WTF!! Angels signed Cody for $8.5MM + $2.5MM in incentives for games finished. One year deal. Of course there's a risk for someone with a bad year the year before, but certainly one the Twins could have afforded! Obvious this FO loves to play the waiting game but it sure is excrutiating for a team with such obvious needs. Oh well, just have to wait and see, but my faith in the Wonder Boys is draining quickly!

And now there is one! Ottavino signs with Yanks for 3 years at $27MM!! Robertson signed for $23MM/2years and Herrera $18MM/2years. Any one of these are clearly superior to anyone now slated for the Twins' pen and were all eminently affordable for the Twins. Look out below if Allen slips from their grasp next! There is no one else available in the same class who comes close to any of these four. Shame on you Falvine!!

Nice read, Nick! Why the FO has waited this long to sign a "closer" when our current bullpen so obviously needs one, is mystifying. They have the money to overpay if necessary and any one of the three remaining candidates, Kimbrel, Ottavino, or Allen, would in all likelihood be far better than anyone we had last year and certainly yards ahead of our current roster. Their desire to wait for the market to come to them incurs the huge risk that one of the big boys(Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc.) will swoop in and grab these three. Where would that leave Twin prospects in 2019? My personal preference is Ottavino over Allen, mainly because of the risk that Allen's arm is used up, perhaps similar to Reed's. The Sox grabbed Herrera for two years at $8MM/yr. We should have done that! While Ottavino has really only excelled one year, and that was not as a closer, he appears to have the stuff to be a dominant closer for 2-3 years. A three year contract at $8-10MM/yr would not break the bank and allow some of our more inexperienced relievers to settle gradually into a back end bullpen role. With that said, if Ottavino is simply not interested in coming to the Twin Cities(he is a Brooklyn-bred boy), then a two year contract for Allen would be a very suitable substitution, at similar numbers. Why this FO is so passive this offseason(one FA signing! one!!) is a real mystery. I can only surmise they do not feel the Twins are legitimate contenders this year, despite being in the weakest division in the league. Well, the way this offseason is developing, looks like that non-contention will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Ted, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Your strategy of throwing relatively untested "closers" like Reed, Parker, et.al. against the wall in the hope they become elite closers might be justifiable for rebuilding teams(although even the non-contending W. Sox have signed two players - Colome and Herrera - who would slot ahead of anyone currently in the Twins bullpen based on past records). But for a team with serious intentions to contend, they must at least start the season with a set closer - and better yet, a shutdown bullpen for innings 7, 8 and 9. You only need to look at recent WSeries contestants to see teams that have a fixed closer with at least one top setup man. LA, Houston, Boston, the Cubs. The Brewers surprising run last year was not due to the strength of the rotation, but to a shutdown bullpen. The yankees are going all in this offseason by now having a bullpen with 3-4 shutdown relievers. For teams with serious intentions, you don't start the year with a hope and a prayer. So this argument revolves around the question : does this FO believe this team can be serious contenders in 2019? All evidence so far points to a loud no(or a weak maybe). Relying on three DFA pickups is not a bad strategy if they are just fill-ins, like Parker surely is. Maybe one of them will surprise and actually turn into a key contributor. But for now, this FO is more treading water than going for an eminently winnable AL Central Title. No, the offseson is not over, but based on activity to date, the Wonder Boys have given us fans little reason to think we are a contending team in 2019. If we go into the season with the bullpen as constituted, look out below!

Ted, if we are going into the year with "no more important player than Reed", that is a damning indictment of the FO. It is a must for a potential contender to start the season with a proven closer; otherwise, they can dig an early hole for themselves not only in the standings, but in the dugout. Not signing a proven closer is an abdication of the FO's responsibilities to the fans and team, pure and simple, but right now that is the state of the Twins entering the second week of January with the top FA closers going elsewhere(assuming Kimbrel is out of reach). This inaction is simply unacceptable to a fan base that has been patiently waiting almost a decade for a return to relevance.

Stop the presses!! Blake Parker is now a Twin. Of the 5 new players added, only Cruz was a FA; the others were all DFA pickups. On a decidedly mediocre LA staff, Parker was DFA'd. Now the offseason is about adding filler players, as well as improving the roster. Taking a flyer on Cron, Schoup, Torres or Parker is certainly a legitimate offseason option. But to count on all four to contribute in a big way is simply foolhardy. The Twins bullpen is unsettled at best with no clear closer. Parker will most certainly not be that person. To rely on Reed, May or Romero is a sure recipe for digging a deep hole early in the year. Remember Ron Davis. Nothing demoralizes a team as blowing late inning leads. Nothing!! With the number of FA closers dwindling to the unaffordable(Kimbrel) or more the hope and prayer type(Cody Allen, Greg Holland,et.al) there's not much left, I'm afraid. Sure the Twins could get lucky but isn't that what the FO is supposed to do in the offseason? Fill the obvious holes to elevate team performance, not rely on hopes and prayers. If the Sox could find money to sign Herrera, why do the Twins settle for the bargain basement? Totally bizarre, enough to throw real doubt on the true abilities of the Wonder Boys.

Doc, I hear you! We'll never know if Falvine was in on Robertson, but they could have offered more $ and the closer's role - something he's not getting in Philly! Giving the FO a break, maybe Robertson's three seasons here in Chicago and the cold, made the east coast too tempting to pass ....but Philadelphia!!! C'mon. The good news is that Neshek and Hunter are now expendable! The Twins probably couldn't resist another one year value-driven deal if the Phils contributed some $. This type of addition, IMO, is now much likelier than Ottavino(a Brooklyn boy, btw) or Herrera who I think is the lowest risk, best value left among the remaining FAs. But he is just too logical for the Wonder Boys to grab. They are more interested in showing the baseball world how clever they are in grabbing a diamond in the rough no one else ever considered. Ah, hubris!! Don't you love it.

Robertson just signed by Phillies for 2 yrs/$23MM!! A very reasonable contract, even for the Twins. Now the FA reliever market will accelerate. Yanks reportedly all in on Britton(good - they can have him!!). If this FO is serious about a substantial bullpen upgrade, they better be on the phone with Ottavino's and Herrera's agents. IMO, pretty steep dropoff after that(assuming Kimbrel is a lost cause). After these three, and perhaps Allen, not much closer material left. And please, please, please ........ no more talk of Romero in the bullpen. He is arguably the only near term minor league starter with front-of-the-rotation potential!

Thanks guys for all the great ideas. They have certainly crystallized my thinking into stating a few preferences for the bullpen: -Initially I,too, preferred the two FA signings of the "second tier", Ottavino and Herrera, at the top. Spreads the risk a bit more and more importantly, allows for Twins' internal parts to develop under less pressure. Just too worried about Roger's overuse last year, Reed's injury and his falloff on return, May's long injury history and Hildy's miserable flop as a closer. -But reconsidering the above, put me down for the signing of Robertson to slot into the closer's role immediately. A closer is the Twins real need going forward and I have the most confidence in Robertson. Two year contract would be fine, but a 3 year one, if ncessary, should be made available by a FO wanting to stabilize this bullpen for more than one year. It will probably take an overpay to induce Robertson to the TC, but he's worth it, IMO. He has maintained a high K/9 which is the surest sign of a successful closer. Herrera's late season injury , and Ottavino's erratic year-to-year performance, makes me hesitate on these two(maybe one can be counted on but two is a crap shoot so picking one of thetwo to be the closer could be risky). Of course, if a miracle occurred and the Twins could ink both these guys, all the better. I just don't think this FO has the b...ls for this move. So add Robertson, maybe one outlier from Chris's list and I'll take my chances with the rest of the pen. I think we can all agree, however, that if the FO does none of this, we're looking forward to another year of treading water. Should be an interesting six weeks before ST! Go Twins!!

Chris, appreciate your comments. To respond: 1. The Giants should trade Baumgartner given their aging roster, declining performances, and very tough division. Whether their new GM will be so inclined is another question. From reports I read, chances are more likely of him moving at trade deadline rather than now. Still, it's worth the phone call. 2. Greinke represents a twofold problem: his large contract($30MM/year over next three years) and his no-trade clause. Still, depending on how much $ the Dbacks throw back, the loss of prospects would not be nearly as steep as for a Thor or Wheeler and what good is our "stacked farm system" if we don't use it? Greinke is, like Baumgartner, a long shot, but if the Twins brass truly wants a contending team this year, they have to take a good shot at one of these guys. 3. Keuchel, while not costing prospects, would cost a high draft choice. More importantly, he seems to be holding out for a 5year contract at probably somewhere near $20MM a year. For a "midmarket" Pohlad-owned team, this is simply too high a price to pay long term, especially with the impending need to sign some of our own core to long term contracts. He slipped badly last year and thus, I would vote a strong no unless his asking price drops considerably. 4. Likewise, a big no on Gonzales who at 33 has a diminished FB reportedly not topping 90mph. He is a lefty and can probably fall within the Twins budget but for a lower ranked starter, I'd rather put my money into the bullpen. We have enough internal candidates for the #4/5 rotational positions. It's a #1(and probably#2) starter the team sorely lacks - almost a necessity for going deep into the playoffs. 5. Rolling the dice on someone younger like Bundy might be a play but why would a rebuilding Oriole team jettison him? It would take a haul of our best prospects, probably including a Lewis or Kirillof, to snare him. With Bundy's ERA never breaking 4.00(and last year at 5.45), he's not worth the risk of decimating our top prospect list. Now if a top package of prospects could fetch a Snell or Snydergaard, I'm all for it!! This whole discussion is probably a moot point, as I'm afraid our new FO is as risk adverse as the old one(except in mid-summer starter-for-prospect trades). They've filled some holes but even these fillers come with big question marks, adding to the many other questions in our lineup and staffs. I just think we have to reconcile ourselves to another year of wait and see. Ugh!!

Assuming the Twins have "limited" funds this offseason, my preference is to address their biggest need, the bullpen, first. Hopefully, this would result in signing one of the proven closers or two of the second tier of FA's. The value of adding a #3, 4 or 5 starter is highly doubtful, IMO. They already have enough of those and the southpaw Mejia is most likely to fill the lefty role as a #5 starter. What the FO should be doing, if they were to go all in, is to find a starter to slot in ahead of Berrios, Gibson, et. al. This would entail a trade that would result in trading some real assets. For a young, controllable pitcher like one of the Mets big four, yes, Lewis or Kirillof, would have to be part of any trade, along with someone like Kepler and a couple of our top rated minor league pitchers, perhaps. Since the likelihood of that ever happening is remote, I would turn to a short term solution like Greinke or Baumgartner for the next year or two. Both Arizona and the Giants are in a rebuild mode and would be much more willing to accept far less than it would take to get one of the Mets' top starters. If the Twins could add such a potential "ace", along with the aforementioned bullpen upgrade, the 2019 Twins would look like a genuine contender, not a pretender. Any bets on whether this scenario enfolds?