mike8791

Well done, Matt. As you said, there is some risk with Rosenthal but well worth it. Seeing his fast ball approach 100mph in 2020, with much better control, bodes well for his apparent recovery from arm surgery. He was very good with KC and I, for one, was disappointed Falvine didn't nab him when he was available at trade deadline. San Diego hit the jackpot when picking him up for their late season run. Rosenthal at 30 would be a huge benefit to a depleted bullpen, led by a very questionable Taylor Rogers. Easily worth a 2 year/$15MM contract. Now that would move the needle for me! FO whiffed on Yates; they have a chance to make amends. Is it in their DNA to take a risk with potentially big payoffs??

Recently, Twins have been reported to have sweetened the price to Nellie, though still sticking to a one year deal. Very hard to argue with FO's desire to bring back a guy who has been the Twins' offensive leader for the past two years, nor is sticking to a one year deal with a 41 year old debatable. The only FA DH the Twins have been linked to is Ozuna, whose offensive prowess is a close match to Cruz's over past couple years. His signing, however, would most likely result in a big, multiyear contract which this FO appears loathe to pursue. Can't argue with that philosophy, especially with Donaldson's big contract and the need for payroll flexibility with Berrios and Buxton approaching FA. While Nick Castellanos does not have the offensive stats of the above, he is a very consistent hitter over the years. Even in a subpar 2020 year, where his OBP fell below .300, he still managed 14HRs and 34 rbis, and a .784 OPS. He was an absolute stud for the Cubs in 2019 when his OPS exceeded 1.0. Castellanos has age going for him(29), positional flexibility, mainly as corner OF, and a 3 year guaranteed contract of about $15MM annually. Now Nick might not match Crus/Ozuna's production in 2021, but he has one big attribute the others do not. His inclusion in a trade with the Reds could likely diminish the price on Sonny Gray. Yes, the Twins would have to give up some prospects, but probably not any of the top 3. They are in need of a SS so Polanco could be enticing along with one of the Twins top 10 and one top 20 prospect. No way of knowing exact players needed but suffice it to say that the Twins have a strong enough minor league system to satisfy the Reds, particularly if Nick's salary is removed from the books. Arguably, with Gray shoring up the Twins rotation and Castellanos filling the DH role more than adequately, that is a needle-moving transaction that should get our blood boiling. What do you think?

Can't buy this, after reading about Didi's defensive shortcomings. If you're going to move Polanco off SS, it would be for a defensive upgrade. Simmons should be the easy choice. His offense ability is ok for that position. Semien's track record shows one superior season, so big red flag there. I like Didi's offense but at SS position, you have to go for defense first. Bottom line, sign Simmons, use Polanco as a key trade chip in getting Sonny Gray from Reds, and add Castellanos to deal to fill DH spot.

Why trade prospects for Musgrove when better pitchers are available for just money, e.g., Odo, Paxton? And if they were willing to give up a top prospect or two, it should be for someone like Gray or Castillo with top-of-the-rotation potential. As for Lester, meh! He's on the downhill side of his career. What is disturbing is that MLBTR reports Yates close to signing with Jays. Just no excuse for FO to pass on him, unless they have their sites set on Rosenthal. Getting the impression FO sitting on their hands until Cruz question settled. Hope someone worthwhile left when that happens!!

Very well-written article, Nick!! Mostly agree with you but have a few questions: First, you rank Odo #2 on your list of gets but summarize by saying "Now that May has signed elsewhere, Clippard and Cruz are the only Twins free agents that I'm particularly keen on bringing back." Huh?? Agree totally that Odo should be resigned(and yes, Paxton is #2 most desirable FA target), assuming the Twins are unable to trade. Twins cannot afford to take high risks here if they want to compete with the big boys. They need a solid top 4!! Second, while you didn't place Cruz as a top priority to resign(#5), an opinion I share because of age and inability to fill in elsewhere, you didn't mention who should replace him. Rosario is gone, so without Cruz, this leaves a big hole in an offense that way underperformed in 2020, particularly in playoffs, as usual. FA replacements like Ozuna, Springer or Brantley would blow the Twins budget, So how would you fill this hole? Love your top 2 RP picks of Rosenthal, Yates(in that order). The Twins need to add a quality late inning reliever who can miss bats. Either of these two fit the bill. No one else does but a 3rd pickup like Clippard or Soria would be an added bonus so long as they didn't prevent signing of a better reliever as well. For SS, I had been a big believer in Semien, but believe your selection of Simmons as #1 choice is better, primarily because of defense and question marks of 2019 being a fluke year for Semien. My question is: if Simmons signed, does Polanco become the 5th IF and fill-in for DH if Cruz not resigned or do you still prefer to sign Profar for this role? Personally, I prefer adding a Profar or Kiki and using Polanco in trade(see below). And finally, one additional thought. Does a major trade have any chance of occurring with this risk adverse FO? For example, a trade with the Reds for Sonny Gray and Castellanos makes just too much sense. We would get back a much younger DH with very good positional flexibility and a pitcher with seemingly higher upside than either Odo or Paxton. Yes, we might have to give up a couple of top prospects but we do have surplus OFs so Larnach might be attractive, as would Polanco to fill the Reds glaring need at SS. Yes, we might have to add one of our 4/5 best pitching prospects but the return would be worth it, IMO. Taking Castellanos with Gray would probably reduce the prospect value we'd have to give up, similar to Mets taking back Carrasco with Lindor. This deal makes too much sense not to be at the top of the Twins' offseason wish list. And, of course, how much is this organization willing to spend to push the needle forward, rather than running in place? This is a critical time for Falvine and company. As you point out, there are some tremendous opportunities this offseason if only this FO would be agressive!!

Good article Matt! While I am not happy with Twins offseason to date(Bowden gave us an F Grade on The Athletic which is still too high), I have to agree that throwing a long term/high $ contract to a reliever makes little sense, if history is any guide. The one time the Twins tried that - Addison Reed - was a disaster. Obviously, if payroll was not an issue, then sure, Hendricks or Hands would be nice, but that is obviously not the case here. Starting from the premise that the Twins need to bolster the bullpen with a shutdown arm, mid price but high reward FAs abound. I would be happy with a Trevor Rosenthal, Kirby Yates, Roberto Osuna, Alex Colome or, yes, even Brandon Kintzler(in that order). Such an addition should be at least #2 on their priority list(an established starter or at least one young, controllable pitcher with a high ceiling should be #1, IMO). And no one on this list should cost more than $5MM/yr - a perfectly reasonable figure for this org. looking for their first playoff win in 19 years. Assuming the Twins have a minimum of $30MM left to spend, this would at least give them enough for resigning Cruz, maybe resign Odo(or some other second tier starter), add a $5MM per yr. reliever and maybe a utility IF. This would up the grade to a C which will would mean going into the playoffs a distinct underdog but still with a decent shot. To increase these odds, they'd need to add another $15MM or so to the budget. Big question of this offseason is : will this organization go for the brass ring or be content to run in place??

Ted, your headline is promising but where's the beef? Yes, they have 4 roster spots open, but where does that point to significant moves this month or next. As a daily reader of MLBTR and The Athletic, I have seen absolutely nothing to indicate this FO is planning on any major moves, i.e., ones that move the needle in increasing our playoff chances, except the one totally unsubstantiated rumor from Passan and allusions by Rosenthal that Twins looking at bringing in another SS. This FO is great at looking, not so hot at doing! The Donaldson signing was the first and only significant move in Falvine's 4 years in office. They should be applauded for that one, as well as some under-the-radar moves like trading for Maeda and Odo, that paid off bigtime. This offseason seems to revolve around whether they will resign Cruz. No matter what your opinion of this is, do you think a Cruz signing makes us an improved WS contender in 2021? Until I see something more impactful than signing a middling RP like Robles, color me very sceptical of this FO's ability to make a significant offseason move. It's nice to engage in wishful thinking, but realistically(until shown differently) that's all this offseason has been for Twins fans.

More concerned with what Hendrik's inflated contract does to price of other FA relievers. Not upset that twins didn't overpay like Sox did, but if Twins are going to remain in hunt for Central Division title, they must sign one of the remaining top FAs. Rosenthal, Yates, or Hand would comprise the next tier, but their asking price has probably just increased. Will the Twins bite? If adding Cruz(or someone equivalent) and adding another solid #3 starter(or higher), and adding a closer-type, this set of moves would undoubtedly push Twins close to the $140MM figure of last year. If this is not in the cards, then they might have to look harder for a trade that entails giving up a prospect or two. It would be a shame given the current talent if the FO opted out of either scenario.

Surprised no one mentioned trading Santana to Mets as Twins' worst trade ever. Probably the best starter in Twins history for a bag of beans. It's a shame that was Bill Smith's major legacy, as he did some very good things in his GM tenure(mainly signing of intl. free agents). Don't think Brunansky/Herr in same atmosphere as that one!

Glad you brought up the importance of trading in improving the team's 2021 chances, but I can't agree with your priorities. Why trade away valuable prospects for Trevor Story when we have a pretty good SS in Polanco, but more importantly, can sign one of 3 quality FA SS's in Simmons, Semien or Didi, if moving Polanco is deemed desirable by Twins' brass? One year of Story makes little sense and if he signed a longer term contract, with Donaldson's contract, would severely hamper Twins' ability to sign some of their own players soon to be eligible for FA, especially Berrios and Buxton. Same argument for not going after either of the Cub players. What does make sense would be a deal with the Reds, obtaining Gray and Castellanos for prospects and perhaps Polanco(the Reds are in the market for a SS). This would accomplish two main things: 1.) strengthen the top of the rotation and 2.) add a younger and more versatile player to take Cruz's place. Castillo would be preferable, but that would entail giving up one of our top 3 prospects, one of our top two pitching prospects, along with a regular like Polanco or Jeffers. Gray would be a very good replacement for the oft-injured Odo with the potential to slot in as a # 1 or 2 starter if Maeda/Berrios were injured or declined in effectiveness. This is the trade I would like to see. The Reds are interested in shedding payroll and Castellanos would be a welcome addition to our all or nothing lineup and provide versatility at a number of positions. Musgrove would be a good addition if the Red's trade were not made, but here's hoping the FO is working 24/7 on a trade with the Reds!

At one point, after Rosie non-tendered, I thought resigning Cruz was a must for the offense. Now, not so sure. Instead, think that FO should be all in on talks with Reds. While Castillo's price would be prohibitive, Sunny Gray's would not, especially if the Twins were willing to take on Castellanos' salary. He would be an excellent replacement for Cruz, albeit not quite the cleanup hitter Cruz has been. He would also add much more flexibility to the lineup, having played 1B, 3B and corner OF. Here in Chicago, his OBP was over .350. At 29(in March) he is in his prime and would provide some much needed RH pop. Of course, the even bigger prize would be Gray who would likely be a #2 or 3 starter, with potential to rise even higher. He would most likely surpass Odo, not only in performance, but also durability. With his addition, the Twins would have a stronger staff and have the luxury of slotting one of their prospects as a #5 starter. Yes, to get this package, the Twins would have to give up a couple of prospects = maybe one top 10, one in the 10-20 range and possibly someone like Polanco. As many on this site have noted, there are 3 FA SS's available to replace Polanco, none of whom would break the bank, and all improving a vital defensive position. This trade makes a lot of sense for both clubs. Just get it done!

Sorry, can't agree. As you pointed out, his K/9 is awfully shaky for a closer-type. Assuming Hendriks salary puts him out of reach, I would much prefer Trevor Rosenthal who has come back nicely from a season-ending injury. Great k/9 numbers and a proven closer!

Ted, you've expressed what a lot of us on this site feel right now - impatience, despair, and frustration. As a resident of Chicago, where criticism of team's management is a blood sport(especially now with the Ricketts/Cubs dismantling) it has always amazed me how passive both the media and blog sites like TD are with regards to Pohlad ownership all these years. Where is the anger and calls for action for a team with a wide open window, solid major league roster, and an above average farm system with some top level prospects? Why is the FO lurking in the weeds while the Pods and Preller are gobbling up the available talent? The answer has to start with the banker's mentality of the Pohlads. They still don't understand that success depends on investment, not each year's P&L statement. Either that, or they are just simply uninterested in taking the necessary risks to bring home a championship to Minnesota. With such an attitude, is it any wonder that their FO picks share this attitude, as witnessed by their passivity this year. San Diego, with a similar market to the Twin Cities is upping their budget to about $150MM to give the powerhouse Dodgers a real run for their money. Why not the Twins? The answer is ownership indifference to the ultimate goal. So Falvine sits by the side of the pool watching and waiting for some small fish to come their way. This is a sure way to mediocrity and eventually, back-sliding. As many have pointed out, this is an ideal off-season for nabbing some real talent without costing a fortune. We all see the needs for the team in 2021 - a big addition to the rotation, a proven closer, and adding some professional hitters who are not just all-or-nothing sluggers. Why the FO won't pull the trigger is the big offseason question. Unfortunately, there appears to be little urgency among fans, the media, and ownership to criticize this approach. I guess that's what they mean by "Minnesota Nice".

This is a relatively low cost, low risk signing - just the kind this org. should be making now. I like his upside potential (look at his 2018 and 2019 record with the Angels). He certainly offers more potential as a late inning reliever than someone like Soria, Wisler, Romo, and any other RH reliever not named Duffy. With that said, I am concerned that this signing will preclude going after one of the many elite FA relievers. This would put an even bigger burden on Rogers returning to form - a path that is risky for a team with 18 straight playoff losses. But if I were a betting man, I would wager any further bullpen additions will be more of the Robles type than a higher potential arm.

This is a bad idea for a number of reasons. Even if Cubs are embarking on a fire sale, Baez is their undisputed star and would cost a ton. Why give up valuable prospects at a position that is loaded with very good FAs like Semien, Simmons and Didi who wouldn't cost any prospects. Right now the Twins have crying needs for the bullpen, starters and a DH. Likely our surplus of prospects could help fill these needs without breaking the bank.

Cody, this plan of patience would better apply to a club in rebuilding mode, which this club is not in today. You say this FO is adept at developing pitching, and yet the only Twins pitching prospect in MLB's top 100 is Balozovic at #81. Going into their 5th full year, there is not one prospect clearly ready to step in, even in the #5 spot in 2021. So patience is a good virtue in any activity except when you are a contender wanting to shed the mantle of playoff chokers. While Lewis is a #7th ranked prospect, there were several excellent pitching prospects available that draft year, including MacKenzie Gore(#3) and Brendon McKay(#12). This FO has eschewed tabbing college pitchers for position players(2 SS, 1OF, 11B/DH). Is this the right strategy for a team that has failed repeatedly in developing top rotation starters? Without signing top FA pitchers, we are reduced to picking up retreads and less-than- top starters. Yes, kudos for pickups like Maeda, Odo and Pineda, but now this team cannot afford to wait 2-3 years for minor league development. They must shed their innate caution and go after the top available starters via trade, if they are serious about going deep into the playoffs.

Kudos to Preller and the Pods!! They see a wider-open window and blew the top off the hot stove league. Trade for Darvish was clearly a win(not trading any of their top 5 prospects) and while Snell trade was more costly, the Pods are set for 3 years in their rotation(once Clevinger returns). Obviously, all other GMs, incl. the Twins, look pretty lame in comparison right now, but the Twins' needs in their rotation are still glaring. Yes, their top 3 are a strength, but after that, look out below(Dobnak was mediocre once AL batters figured out his average stuff) and no one else looks ready to contribute in 2021. So, now that these two studs are gone(and Bauer is obviously out of reach), what's left? One would think that if this franchise is committed to breaking their pitiful postseason streak it is incumbent upon them to add more quality to the rotation. Why they haven't resigned Odo is becoming more troublesome by the day. He easily slots in as a solid #3/4 starter. After that, going after one of the Reds' starters, Castillo or Gray, makes a lot of sense, as they are the best of the rest. We have the prospects and could also add a starter like Polanco, assuming a top FA SS is also signed. The Reds will demand a lot for Castillo, maybe too high a price for the Twins brass to pay, but we do have the pieces to spare to at least get Gray done, if not Castillo. I don't see anyone else on the list of "available starters" that could move the needle. This front office has never shown the risk-taking ability to pull off the type of trades that Preller has so I remain very sceptical Falvine will act agressively this offseason. It's just not in this franchise's DNA to be risk takers, as witnessed by our playoff futility. Hope I'm pleasantly surprised but don't bet on it!!

With 3 good FA SS's on the market - Didi, Simmons and Semien - this seems like a potential upgrade for the team. My initial preference was for Didi because of his consistent offense over the years and a supposed upgrade over Polanco's defense. But reviewing the defensive stats, the Twins would be better off with one of the others. Simmons has never shown much offense and for that reason, Semien probably makes the most sense, although a clear risk that he was a one season wonder. Where I differ from most on this post, is what such a signing would allow the Twins to do, which is enhance their chances for bringing in a top rated starter. Using one of Arraez or Polanco as a utility infielder undervalues their worth on the market. We can easily fill that slot with someone like Kiki, Profar or LaStella. So if we made either Arraez or Polanco as a centerpiece in a trade for one of the top starters reportedly available - Castillo, Gray or Darvish - this combination of moves would greatly strengthen the team, both on offense and pitching. We know the Reds are in the market for a SS and that the Cubs are in need of a 2B. We have enough in the way of prospects to consummate a trade with one of these clubs or even Colorado or Pittsburgh. Castillo would be most desirable but hardest to get, which is why a regular position player would be a valuable trade piece. Sure, I'd hate to lose Arraez as his high OBP provides exactly what this team lacks, but to land another top pitcher would greatly enhance our playoff chances. Of course, this assumes resigning of Cruz(or equivalent), as well as adding two competent relievers, but at this point why not dream a little?

At first glance, idea of trading Arraez seems ludicrous. One glaring need for this team is higher OB position players. Last year's all or nothing offense demonstrated this gaping hole. Arraez seems to be team's best bet for leadoff hitter. So why trade him? Several reasons exist to seriously consider a trade: 1. Polanco's defense at ss is average at best. His best position is 2B. 2. There are several FA SS's available. My choice would be to sign Didi, but Simmons or Semien would be upgrades as well. 3. Arraez is probably the Twins' only position player in a sell high mode. If Arraez and one or two prospects could fetch a Snell, Castillo, Ray, or Darvish, the FO should seriously consider a trade. Sure, I would rather give up Polanco or even Sano but their values are not expected to be high right now. Doubling down on the rotation by resigning Odo and trading for one of the 4 names mentioned above would be a huge step forward in the Twins quest for legitimacy in the playoffs.

The only goal this offseason though should be a Postseason trip that results in a string of victories. Ted, you have hit the nail on the head!! Am I the only one sick and tired of this organization unwilling to take the big step forward to be considered a serious WS threat? It has been 30 years since we had a GM make bold, decisive moves to put us in the hunt. MacPhail rolled the dice for additions like Juan Berenguer, Jeff Reardon, and Dan Gladden in 1987 and for 1991 obtained Chili Davis, Jack Morris and Mike Pagliarulo. Augmented by a productive farm system that produced Scott Erickson and Chuck Knoblach, with previous pickups like Shane Mack, Rick Aguilera and Kevin Tapani, these FA signings moved the needle enough to bring this franchise their only two WS Championships. It is not a stretch to say that no Twins GM has done anything in the intervening years to equal such bold moves, at least until Falvine brought in Donaldson and Maeda last offseason. For whatever reason this was not enough to break the disastrous postseason futility last year. Lots of reasons for this, including injuries to JD and BB, falloff by Rogers, pandemic concerns, but most of all, just a falling to earth by an offense that way overperformed their career norms in 2019. So where does this leave us going into 2021? At this stage, losses include Rosario, May, Wisler, and Romo. Should we be concerned about sliding backwards? No, not yet, but the signs are ominous! Talk of cutting the budget to $125MM or $15MM from last year is certainly a move in the wrong direction. With a talented, but somewhat flawed team that, one would think, be anxious to break their dismal history in the playoffs, this offseason represents an immense opportunity to take a big step forward. Talented free agents abound, starting with two or three from last year's squad(Odorrizi, Cruz and Clippard), and buttressed by a strong bullpen core of FAs and potential FA's like Brantley, Ozuna, and LaMehieu. Add on possible trade candidates like Snell, Castillo, Gray to buttress the rotation and this could be a solid WS contender. No, I am not advoacating wild spending, but if Pohlad truly wants another championship flag flying over Target Field, cutting the budget is not the way to go. Some bold moves both in FA signings and trades is an absolute necessity, as Ted indicated. Will this occur? That is the unknown question at this juncture midway thru the offseason. I'm afraid that club ownership has shown little commitment over the years to take some risks and go all in for the gold ring. And while Falvey has exhibited more boldness than his predecessor (a very low bar) , the basic conservative nature of this organization, starting from the top and filtering down thru the FO, mitigates against boldness I truly hope I'm off base here, but it's this sort of inside-the-box mindset that prevents true success. If Pohlad and co. are not committed to this goal(and I don't recall JP ever publicly committing to bringing a title to this town, then isn't it time for him to sell the team to a new owner who is.

I've been a fan of Garver being a key trade bait this offseason, preferably to a team like TB in need of catching help and who is willing to give up a top starter like Snell. But after looking at our "catching depth", trading Garver doesn't look so hot. No one ready behind Garver/Jeffers and relying heavily on Jeffers is risky for a playoff caliber team. Better bet is to let Garver reestablish himself in 2021, Jeffers solidify his potential to be a starting backstop in a full season and hope that Rortvedt continues his improvement.

Ken Rosenthal had interesting column today in The Athletic on possibilities of Twins trading Arraez. While he said chances are not high this will happen, he indicated there was significant demand for him. Rationale is that Twins could move Polanco to 2B, his natural position, and go after either Story or even Lindor, on a short term deal until Lewis is ready. Or alternatively sign someone like Semien to take over SS. If the Twins could use someone like Arraez to land a top starter like Snell, Darvish or Sonny Gray, this could greatly improve chances for success in playoffs. Arraez is a valuable player to date, but nothing wrong with trading him at a high point, where Rosenthal thinks he is now. This would be a bold move which makes it unlikely the FO would do it, but it sure would be a decisive series of transactions that could jump start our offseason. It makes a lot of sense if the Twins pulled the trigger on this!

Agree that another ace at top of rotation would move this team closer to what should be the goal of this organization: field a team that can go deep into the playoffs. Aside from resigning Cruz and a well-established closer, this would be my choice for a big offseason move. However, a trade for Darvish is extremely unlikely, primarily because the Cubs cannot afford to lose him if they are going to be competitive in 2021. End of story. But Yu is not the most attractive starter available. Ignoring Bauer, who clearly expects(and will probably get) the moon and stars from a club desperate for an ace, Blake Snell is a younger, cheaper version who is reportedly attainable - for a high price,of course. The Twins match well with the Rays, who need a catcher badly and high profile, cheap prospects. The Twins have a surplus of catchers, 3 or 4 top position prospects, and 3-4 minor league starters who are almost major league ready. Sonny Gray would be another desirable trade target, but Snell is clearly the top choice. Pair one of these with an Odorrizi resign and the Twins would have a top playoff rotation!

The 3 payers cited above obviously fell off from 2019. But its pretty obvious 2019 was an aberration, especially when it came to HRs. So I don't put a lot of emphasis on these 3 players' bounceback numbers in 2021. If Garver doesn't rebound we have Jeffers who would undoubtedly move up to #1 receiver if Garvs slump continues. Kepler's contribution in 2020 was above average for a RF. I would be happy if he was just a little more consistent. And Polanco had a decent year, both offensively and defensively. Yes, we'd like to see a bump in his slugging %, but this would be a bonus for that position, not a must. For this offense to show a significant improvement next year, healthy seasons by Buxton and Donaldson are the key. Look how much better the Twins' offense was when these two were in the lineup together. Yes, SSS, but their offensive prowess when healthy is a given and fully productive seasons from them would alleviate the loss of Cruz and Rosario.

"We all know what happens when you take your eye off the prize." Exactly!! This team should be primed for a deep run into the playoffs. To do that we need grade A replacements, not bargain basement fillers. Not to say there aren't some worthwhile players in the non-tender group, but if this team is going to break their pathetic playoff streak, these are not the players to go after. A Hendricks(top choice), Hand, or Rosenthal could be the capstone on a very good bullpen. MLBTR has the Twins exploring a Soria signing. That move would not be a difference maker. Why not just resign Clippard? A stacked bullpen is a must in the playoffs! Presently, we do not have that. Similarly, the rotation is good but not World Series caliber. No, Bauer is too expensive, but trading for Snell makes a lot of sense, as does resigning Odo. Now that is a championship-caliber rotation! The icing on the cake would be addition of someone like LaMehieu who would add a badly needed contact hitter to this homer-happy, low OBP lineup. His addition would make it easier to include either Arraez or Sano in a Snell transaction. Of course, resigning Cruz is desirable but not a necessity if the above-type moves are made. So, yes, think big or go home. Haven't we had enough of the Ryan-type tinkering that led to such disappointment in the aughts?