Vanimal46

I've mentioned it a few times around here the last year or so, but I will be having a fun little adventure this summer and enjoying a game in every team's home park. I chose this summer so I could also enjoy a World Baseball Classic game or 2. Since I know you all can't get enough of my thoughts, feelings, and opinions on all things baseball, I figured I'd start a blog and share the journey with you. This first entry is to lay out the plan for you so you can see what it's going to look like and I can see what people are interested in hearing about.
Ticket plans: My plans for game tickets to MLB games are to get the cheapest tickets I can to almost every game. I want to see the parks. I want to see what the views are like from different angles and areas. I don't plan to be in my seat for most of the game so I don't want to waste money on expensive seats. The stadium I am most considering getting specific seats to is Fenway. I think it'd be fun to sit on The Monster. So, I may do that. If anyone has insight on other seat locations at other parks that are truly special and really provide a unique vantage point to a game, please let me know!
Travel plans: I don't want to drive in New York, so I will be doing a flight out to Washington and then trains and ubers and rental cars from there on my east coast swing. But the rest will be done in my trusty camper van. That will lead to some long days and tight windows on getting to some games and getting out of town after games, but it'll make for an exciting adventure! The WBC trip will be done solo, but the plan is to bring my dog with on the others. There'll be some hotel nights mixed in when we just need a night indoors with some comfort, but we're hearty, northern camping folk so we'll be good on the road most of the time. This will also allow us to save a few bucks over the flight and hotel option.
Schedule:
WBC/Spring Training- 
3/11 Dominican Republic vs Venezuela in Miami
3/12 Mets vs Cardinals in Jupiter
3/12 Nats vs Astros in West Palm Beach
3/13 Pool C vs Pool D WBC Quarterfinal in Miami
West Coast-
5/1 Colorado Rockies vs Braves
5/3 Sacramento Athletics vs Guardians
5/4 San Francisco Giants vs Padres
5/6 Los Angeles Angels vs White Sox
5/7 San Diego Padres vs Cardinals
5/8 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Braves
5/9 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Mets
5/11 Texas Rangers vs Diamondbacks
5/12 Houston Astros vs Mariners
Northeast-
5/21 Washington Nationals vs Mets
5/22 Baltimore Orioles vs Tigers
5/23 Philadelphia Phillies vs Guardians
5/24 New York Yankees vs Rays
5/25 New York Mets vs Reds
5/26 Boston Red Sox vs Braves
Midwest-
Chicago Cubs either start or end the trip with them depending on a couple other life events
6/22 Chicago White Sox vs Guardians
6/23 Cincinnati Reds vs Brewers
6/24 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Mariners
6/25 Toronto Blue Jays vs Rangers
6/26 Detroit Tigers vs Astros
6/27 Cleveland Guardians vs Mariners
6/28 Milwaukee Brewers vs Cubs
Southeast-
8/9 Kansas City Royals vs Cubs
8/10 St Louis Cardinals vs Phillies
8/11 Atlanta Braves vs Mets
8/13 Miami Marlins vs Pirates
8/14 Tampa Bay Rays vs Orioles
Seattle-
9/22 Seattle Mariners vs Astros
I'm in Seattle for a conference in September so they get their own special stand-alone game.
Minnesota-
Whenever. I live here. So, I'll go when the mood strikes.
There is an ability to move some games around and adjust with most of the schedule. Some of the schedule is pretty tight and that'll be fun and stressful all at the same time. I'm excited for the summer and think it'll be a pretty cool adventure.
Let me know what you think will be fun about it, what you think the pain points will be, and what things you think I should write about. What are you guys interested to know about all the different parks across the country and the challenge of seeing them all in one summer? Anything you're curious about with the WBC games? Let me know and I'll try my best to report back on it all!
Spring training has arrived and baseball season is right around the corner!

How about a sports movie where a bunch of misfits are put together on one team and they somehow come together to win it all? *Yawn!* We've seen that already at least a dozen times.
What if they don't band together for the love of the game or each other, but out of pure spite for their money-grubbing boss? 
Now you have something. Major League!
Major League came out in 1989, which is right in the golden era of baseball movies. It doesn't hang its hat on nostalgia or pure love of baseball, but on comedy and it does it very well. There are so many great one-liners in this movie that I call it the Caddyshack of baseball. 

The plot for Major League is pretty simple. The owner of the Cleveland Indians dies and his "Vegas beauty" of a young wife, Rachel Phelps played by Margaret Whitton, inherits the team. She isn't a Cleveland kind of gal so she tries to put together the worst team imaginable so attendance will drop to the point where she can move the team to Miami. Here's the lineup:
Pedro Cerrano (played by Dennis Haysbert) - A power-hitting outfielder from from Cuba that practices Voodoo and can't hit a curveball.
Jake Taylor (played by Tom Berenger) - A former star catcher with bad knees but a good head for the game. 
Willie Mays Hayes (played by Wesley Snipes) - A dude no one has heard of who shows up and can run like the wind. Base stealer that can't really hit.
Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn (played by Charlie Sheen) - A fireball-throwing pitcher straight out of the California penal league. The bad boy of the team.
Eddie Harris (played by Chelcie Ross) - The aging junkball pitcher who will put anything, including snot or KY, on the ball to get an edge. Big fan of Jesus.
Roger Dorn (played by Corbin Bernsen) - A big-contract 3rd baseman who cares more about his paycheck and lifestyle than the game or the team.
Lou Brown (played by James Gammon) - A first time manager that gave up his job selling tires to take the helm, but he had to think about it for awhile.
Once these guys get wind of their owner's plan, they grind it out and start winning just to prove her wrong and aggravate her. Maybe the current Twins team should watch this one.
On the field, the baseball is fairly good. Harris, the junk-baller, doesn't look super-legit, but it's good enough. Berenger looks pretty good throwing, Haysbert looks like he could play for real, and Charlie Sheen was a stud high-school pitcher and shortstop who looks legit on the mound. Reports say that Snipes had zero baseball skills outside of running fast and sliding, so they had to do some fancy editing whenever he had to catch or throw the ball. It works well enough that I never questioned it. But, seriously, we're not here for the baseball. 
The cast is fantastic. I'm not sure how they could have done better at just about any of the spots. They're all likable, funny, and disturbing in their own way. Plus, Rene Russo as Jake Taylor's love interest and Stacy Carroll as Susan Dorn fit right in. Gammon, as manager Lou Brown, steals a few scenes in an understated way. In fact, he's one of the best characters on the screen. But, as if this wasn't all the makings for a great baseball comedy, they brought in a ringer. In the radio booth for the Cleveland Indians is Harry Doyle, played by none other than Mr. Bob Uecker...and it might be the best thing he ever did in his legendary career (sorry Brewers fans). Throughout the movie, he fires one-liners as he calls the game that are absolutely epic. Who hasn't watched a wild pitch and said, "Juuusst a bit outside!"
When people ask the question, "What's your favorite baseball movie?" many, many people immediately say Major League, and for good reason. It is funny as hell while sneaking in one of the more exhilarating moments in baseball movie history, If you don't get tingles when they call in Ricky Vaughn to face his nemesis on the Yankees and he comes out of the bullpen while the crowd roars along to "Wild Thing" (The Troggs, not Tone Loc), you're a little dead inside. It's a great moment that made kids in 1989 immediately think, "What would my entrance song be?" For the record, mine would be "Blood of Heroes" by Megadeth. 
All in all, Major League, is a baseball classic that keeps you laughing and has enough baseball legitimacy to work. It's definitely in my top five.
Run Time: 1 hr 47 min
Scorecard: Homerun to the second deck!
IMDB Score: 7.2
Best line: Yikes. There are so many! My personal favorite is when Hayes makes a showboating basket catch and returns to the dugout, the manager greets him at the step and says, "Nice catch, Hayes. Don't ever f#$%ing do it again!"

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were brought on board to head the Twins front office in late 2016.  We have nearly a decade of drafts to look at now.  What might have happened under other leadership? 
I took a look at the first rounders picked by the Twins 2017-25 and then checked which player was taken next.  That's hardly an infallible way to look at it, but resembles a kind of "crowd sourcing" among the dozen or so other GMs in the majors during the same era as to how it might have gone had they been drafting in the Twins place.  And it attempts to avoid cherry-picking of one hypothetical outcome or another way, way down the draft list, where multiple other teams whiffed too. 
I've opted to omit the 2024-25 drafts since it's way too soon to evaluate them, but for the rest I show the bWAR career totals side by side:
2023    Walker Jenkins  0.0     As      Jacob Wilson    2.2
2023    Charlee Soto    0.0     Marlins Thomas White    0.0
2022    Brooks Lee      -0.8    Royals  Gavin Cross     0.0
2021    Chase Petty     -0.8    Padres  Jackson Merrill 6.1
2021    Noah Miller     0.0     Pirates Anthony Solometo        0.0
2020    Aaron Sabato    0.0     Yanks   Austin Wells    2.6
2019    Keoni Cavaco    0.0     Phils   Bryson Stott    9.4
2019    Matt Wallner    4.9     Rays    Seth Johnson    -0.4
2018    Trevor Larnach  3.6     Brewers Brice Turang    11.5
2017    Royce Lewis     4.0     Red     Hunter Greene   12.4
2017    Brent Rooker    8.9     Marlins Brian Miller    -0.1
Each one is worth discussing, which I'll do from the bottom up.  Rooker of course is a very interesting case, and he has turned himself into a quality major league hitter after two other organizations after the Twins gave up on him too.  He was a throw-in on the trade that brought us Paddack and Pagan, so even though we didn't reap his full potential by a long shot, at least we cashed him in for something and the next team who was drafting wound up with nothing to speak of.  Advantage: FalVine.
Royce Lewis is maybe even more interesting.  We coulda had Greene, and instead got a player whose potential seems to have been decimated by injury.  Advantage: not Falvine.
Larnach?  He's been okay.  The next guy in line has been a whole lot better so far. Advantage: not FalVine. 
Wallner.  He's been somewhat better than Larnach. The Rays didn't do nearly as well  Advantage: FalVine.
Cavaco. Oh boy.  Coulda had a major leaguer.  Advantage: not FalVine.
Sabato.  Oh boy.  Coulda had a major leaguer - could we use an additional catcher right now?  Advantage: not FalVine.
Miller.  He's knocking on the major league door with the Dodgers; we traded him for the unique athletic stylings of Manuel Margot. The next guy drafted hasn't panned out yet, although he still might.  I'll try not to hold Margot against Miller personally - whether foolishly or not, the Twins cashed Miller in for something.  Advantage (ever so slightly): FalVine.
Petty.  Another interesting case.  We cashed him in for two years of Sonny Gray.  But, but, but, the Padres have Merrill and will continue to have him for many years, per contract.  I don't think the Padres would make that same trade.  Advantage: not FalVine.
Lee.  The current WAR is ugly, but it's reasonable to think he'll continue to have a major league career - by my recollection, it was considered an 8-player draft and the Twins were choosing #8, but give them credit for not overthinking it.  The next guy drafted looks like he's not gonna make it.  Advantage: FalVine.
Soto.  This is a comparison of two high-school pitchers, so it's way premature.  The other guy has displayed more health/endurance so far, and with good ERAs - he's reached AA at age 20 and not yet missed a beat.  Advantage: I'm gonna call this a 'push' for the time being but the tea leaves are currently pointing in the wrong direction.
Jenkins.  The big kahuna, and the reason I drew the line at the 2023 draft when it's obviously premature.  It's interesting because the next guy drafted has reached the majors and is doing very well.  Do the Twins now regret choosing Jenkins?  I would doubt it - his ceiling is sky high.  Would the As have chosen differently than the Twins did, back in 2023?  I also doubt it - this was considered a 5-player draft and the Twins were choosing #5.  With all things considered, I'm going to maybe be controversial and not call it too soon to tell.  Advantage: a push - the Twins simply did what was expected and (arguably) did what any FO would have done.
So, count them up.  Of the 11 picks, I give FalVine the edge on 4, I call it a push on 2, and it's a worse outcome on 5.
But I think that a simple count understates it.  Which would you rather have right now?
Merrill, Wells, Stott, Turang, Greene? Lee, Gray (suppose we would have extended him), Wallner, Larnach, Lewis? Oof.  Going by WAR for 2025 all by itself (it's anyone's guess going forward), I'd have to say: Not An Impressive Body Of Work.
I want a 11 Do-Overs.  😀

In baseball, timing is everything. Yet, the Minnesota Twins front office has displayed some of the worst timing for news in the last 18 months, and they have let fan morale reach new lows because of it.
On Monday, just a mere three days before the start of the 2025 season - the 41st full season under the ownership of the Pohlad estate – word got out that the Twins owners were looking for at least $200 million more than the $1.5 billion valuation/offers they were getting over the winter from prospective buyers to help offset a debt over $400 million that the team has incurred since 2020.
While it appears there is still interest in the club, the prospect of the team being sold any time soon has gotten lower. As a result, the Pohlads might just slink back into the owner’s box that they were looking to get out of just six months ago when they announced they were exploring a sale of the ball club their father Carl bought in 1984 for $40 million.
The thought of that happening is very unsettling to a large sum of the Twins fan base. There’s good reason for it. The fans have recently let their frustration show, as 2024 saw attendance decrease following a 2023 season in which they won a playoff game and playoff series for the first time since 2002.
Part of that decrease was a dreadful collapse in the season’s final six weeks. But another, and larger, part of that attendance dive was from Twins chair Joe Pohlad saying the payroll had to be “right-sized” when spring training was getting underway and the roster still had some holes.
Saying that part aloud, across radio dials of the upper Midwest, sent the message to the fans that the front office was not going to be able to provide modest improvements to a ballclub that looked to be on the doorstep of being an actual American League pennant contender.
Then at the trade deadline, the Twins sat 6.5 games atop the AL Central, and their front office did nothing to improve the team. No reason was given other than the usual jargon (nothing piqued our interest, etc.), but it seemed the Twins could not take on any additional payroll in the season.
The wheels fell off. The Twins turned into dust faster than half the Avengers at the end of ‘Avengers:Infinity War’. Fan morale sank to lows not seen since the likes of Scott Diamond and Samuel Deduno were getting regular starts for the team.
After the Twins were long eliminated, in late September, the Pohlads announced they were exploring a sale of the club. Morale slightly improved, as the thought of a new owner looked promising. Someone that could maybe invest in the on-field product and try and give Minnesota a consistent winner.
Things appeared to be heading in the direction of the Twins being sold to Chicago billionaire and White Sox minority owner Justin Ishbia, whos brother Matt also owns the Phoenix Suns. But the White Sox offered to up Ishbia’s stake in the team, and his bid for the Twins was off.
Ishbia’s lost bid was leaked at the time spring training was getting underway, just as you started to feel the warm and fuzzies about the boys of summer taking the field. Royce Lewis didn’t even have a chance to get hurt again this news was leaked so quick in spring training.
Now here we are, days from the start of the season, and the news has leaked the Twins might not even get sold.
So what happens if there’s no sale and the Twins get pulled from the market (just like the Nationals did a few years ago)?
Fan morale will get further crushed into oblivion. This is fine dot gif.
Just look at where morale is right now. The team can barely give away tickets to their home opener on April 3, as prices to just get in the door go lower and lower as gameday approaches. Hell, a carton of eggs will be more expensive by next week.
The objective for the Pohlads should be crystal clear in this scenario of pulling the team off the selling market: They have to go out and earn back fan trust. No, it will not come easily or cheaply for them either.
The 2025 Twins could easily win the AL Central. It’s a weak division, and the Twins are projected to have one of the best top to bottom pitching staffs in baseball. But attendance will likely decline again, as no one is rushing to buy tickets as the season begins.
This is what has to be addressed from the owner’s box.
Here’s how you try and do this:
Start with an apology. A statement of knowing that you royally screwed the pooch in the last 18 months. Then you follow it up with a declaration of how you are going to right the wrong.
Giveaway more tickets. Offer way cheaper (or even in some cases free) concessions. Discount the merchandise (especially at a time when simple groceries are tough for families that you want coming to the ballpark). Show some free trials of your new TwinsTV network, which casual people aren’t exactly willing to fork out for right now.
Then you get an actual willingness to invest more in the ballclub’s on-field product. Let the front office make a trade or two which makes the ball club better (aka adding salary). Show you can be flexible when there is an opportunity to make a meaningful fall run. Don’t give the fans any more B.S. about payroll, revenue, et. Al. Put a few more bucks into the team, right-sizing the payroll be dammed.
Buying back that fan trust will not come cheap. But when you are $400M in the hole, what’s a few more million on top of that? Start buying that trust back, and eventually people will come back and spend their money on your product again.
This is what the Pohlads will have to do should they retain the club. Simply relying on the baseball team to bring the fans back won’t work this time. It wasn’t working last year when they were sitting nearly seven games clear of second place after 108 games.
Otherwise, they might be yearning for the days when their franchise was getting valued at $1.5 billion and they said, “no thanks.”
 
Header photo via Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images

This post first appeared on my substack. Subscribe here if you like what you read. 
 

I've followed the Twins for as long as I can remember. I am not going to pretend I've seen it all, but that makes the following statement come with deep thought and reflections before saying it aloud:

I have never been more angry at the end of a season and feel as disconnected from the baseball team I love and support as I do at this particular moment.

Just 52 short weeks ago, the Twins did something they had not done in nearly two decades. They won a playoff game.

In fact, they won back-to-back playoff games, which constituted a playoff series victory. Another thing they had not done in two decades. 

After giving a good punch to the Astros in the divisional series, the Twins bowed out of the postseason with three playoff victories and renewed fan excitement. I had not felt this much excitement about the Twins moving forward since the end of 2009 when they were about to move into a new stadium and were going to field a pretty damn good team. 

The Twins took out a full-page ad in the local papers and spammed this letter across their social media channels, doubling down on our excitement for what was supposedly going to come next. 
 


"Imagine what next season could be."

That full sense of excitement never made it to the 2024 regular season. That imagination of what 2024 could be never got even off the ground. 

Right at the beginning of Spring Training, Twins Executive Chair Joe Pohlad had an interview with WCCO Radio, and said the team was not adding any big-time free agents. Pohlad also added that the team's payroll - which had been slashed by $30 million in the offseason - was going to remain where it was presently at. 

Sonny Gray, who was a key cog in the Twins 2023 pitching staff, had already left in free agency. The Twins could have used another front-line starter to compliment Pablo Lopez. They didn't, opting to go with Chris Paddack and a rotating cast of rookies. 

Carlos Santana was the marquee free agent signing, but, with all respect, he was not going to fix what ailed the Twins in the ALDS against Houston: clutch hitting. 

After all that excitement and the fact the Twins just needed a few upgrades, they slashed the payroll and went back to shopping in the bargain bin like the 2000s Twins in the Metrodome. Frustration sank in about the lack of moves during the spring, but hope - as it always does every spring training - sprung eternal and you never know what a regular season will bring. 

Just inside the start of May, as the Twins were surging after a slow start, myself and a large portion of the fanbase lost the simple ability to view the team on television. Diamond Sports Group and Comcast could not agree on a new contract and all Bally Regional Sports Networks - which included the Twins' television home, Bally Sports North - was pulled off the cable giant. 

The Twins had the opportunity to go a different route for their TV options following 2023, but they re-upped their contract with Ballys for one year, knowing full well that this could happen. The Twins opted for the largest deal available to them, the same deal that was their excuse for slashing payroll, and lost a large chunk of fans on TV for the summer.

Sure, you could go find them on something called FUBO TV, but I had already cut cable before and had to go back to it after Diamond Sports group muscled my streaming service out of showing their games. I was not going down that road again. I'm sure I was not the only one in that boat either. 

For three months, I sat in the dark. If the game was big enough, I would find a less-than-ideal way to stream the game, but mostly I resorted to listening via radio or just following along with the beat writers via X if I was not attending the game. That was an incredibly frustrating and unideal way to follow your baseball team in 2024.
 
On August 1, the blackout on television lifted after the companies came to an agreement a few days prior. This also coincided with the trade deadline just passing. The Twins did nothing but add a reliever off the scrap heap who was released a month later. Twins President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey would not commit to saying if payroll had anything to do with the lack of moves. Frustration sank in again as it appeared that ownership had prevented from the Twins baseball people doing anything meaningful to make this club better. 

Frustration also appeared to be prevalent in the Twins clubhouse after the deadline. Not ideal to see players speaking out about frustrations with lack of upgrades. Surely that will not show its head over the final months, right? RIGHT?

The back end of the rotation was lacking, the bullpen needed another quality arm or two, and hitting was problematic at times. But the Twins sat 59-48, six games back of Cleveland in the Central but well in a Wild Card spot in the AL. Mere hope for the best outcome was all we fans had for the final two months.

Hope did not carry long. 

Pitching fell apart, both in the rotation and bullpen, hitting went colder than a trip to the Arctic, and the Twins sank. Along with a late-season surge by Detroit, the Twins had a collapse for the ages. Nothing went right almost nightly, but at least we had them back on TV to watch uninspired baseball. 

The Twins were officially eliminated in the season's final week, but you might as well have called the coroner on the club on that final day of July when the trade deadline passed. 

Frustration for the season gave way to sheer anger. Anger that nothing more meaningful was done to improve the team leading up to the deadline. Nothing more meaningful was done to improve the team going back to the offseason. Anger that all the excitement we had for this baseball team one year ago has been so quickly washed away.

On the season's final day, as the entire state had its eyes gazed east to Wisconsin for an important football game, the Twins brass came out and spoke on the season's failures. 
 

Joe Pohlad spoke, putting his foot in his mouth again, reminding us fans that this is a business and he won't get into business decisions. 

(credit to Gleeman for putting Pohlad's feet to the fire here)


If I wanted to be spoonfed manure, my wife's uncle has a farm I can go visit anytime. I don't need to be given it from the local baseball team.

Pohlad mentions he has to "run this business for our team and our fans". Well, Joe, this season has been anything but "for the fans". So where can you tell me things were done for the fans? And if we fans voiced our displeasure in the ballpark, they were told to leave the ballpark and not return for a year. 

Good look, Joe. 

In a season in which one of our most prominent players in franchise history went into Cooperstown, and personally, I got to take my baby girl to baseball games, I am left feeling nothing but anger and distrust for what I, and the Twins fanbase, had to endure in 2024. I don't say these things lightly, but this is the reality of what has built up over the last year. 

The negatives horribly outweighed anything that was fun and good. That's what I'll remember about the 2024 season. 

And it will now take more than a couple of playoff wins to wash these feelings away. That's for damn sure. 

Introduction of the series here
Part 2: 1961-1962 Offseason MLB expansion here
Part 3: 1964 World Series Champs! here
Part 4: 1967 World Champs! here
Part 5: Modern Day Free About to Begin! here
I've been GRINDING THE TAPE as they say and this will be my last long form season recaps. I am currently through the 1990 season and my next blog series will highlight just the champs and milestone highlights... With that said, let's talk about modern day free agency! 
1975-76 Offseason:   With rumors of free agency about to begin, the Twins negotiated a historic contract extension for 24 year old ace SP Bert Blyleven. Bert agreed to a 6 year extension for an MLB record $4.8 million. As long as he remains healthy, he will be a bargain at $800,000 AAV.    2 weeks later, 24 year old SS Kenneth Bruno will be known as the first millionaire in Twins history. He inked an 8 year, $11 million contract extension.    @stringer bellmoved on after 8 years from the Twins and took on the task of making the Yankees great again. They have not made the playoffs since 1963. He got off to a strong start trading for Reggie Jackson.    After 21 years with the Pirates, Roberto Clemente will be playing his age 41 season in Boston.    Richie Ashburn and Nellie Fox were the 2 selections into the 1976 HOF.   1976 Season:   Tony Oliva retires shortly into April after a 14 year career. He finishes his career with a .296 career average, 2.226 hits, 222 HR, 1,006 RBI, and 56.7 WAR. He will likely be a HOF player once he's eligible.    1976 Draft:   1. NYY - SP Mike Scott 2. BAL - 2B Tim Raines 3. STL - SS Paul Molitor 4. SF - CF Harold Baines 5. KC - 1B Greg Walker   With the 28th overall pick, the Minnesota Twins select C Mike Scioscia.    The Texas Rangers loaded up on talent and they are the AL West Champs after winning 102 games. The Twins finished with 87 wins and missed the playoffs for the first time since 1970.    1976-77 Offseason:   Long time manager Curt Simmons leaves the Twins after a conflict with ownership. 38 year old Tony Oliva is named manager after a partial year managing the single A Wisconsin Rapids team.    Jim Kaat retires at 38 years old after an 18 year run with the Minnesota Twins. He finishes his career with 229 wins, a 3.21 ERA, pitching 3,503 innings over 485 starts.    The Twins first casualty to free agency was long-time OF Reggie Smith. The 31 year old signed a 5 year, $5.7 million contract with the Cincinnati Reds.   The first ever free agent class is absolutely loaded. FA SP: Steve Carlton, Catfish Hunter, Tommy John, and Jerry Koosman in their early 30's. Old veterans Phil Niekro and Gaylord Perry who are 37 and 38.  FA C: Thurman Munson, Gene Tenace, Milt May
FA OF: Bobby Bonds, Reggie Smith, Hal McRae, Al Oliver, Rusty Staub, Dusty Baker, Don Baylor, Lou Brock, and Carl Yastrzemski plus many others.
The Twins locked in SP Catfish Hunter to join the rotation for $250,000, 32 year old 6 time gold glove CF Paul Blair for $110,000, along with other minor league signings to fill out our new single A team Visalia Oaks.    The 1977 HOF class has 3 first ballot players. Willie Mays, Don Drysdale, and Jim Bunning.   1977 Season:   1977 Draft:   1. MIL - 2B Tim Raines 2. OAK - SS Ryne Sandberg 3. BAL - SS Julio Franco 4. SF - 3B Bob Horner 5. CIN - SS Tony Phillips   Cal Ripken Jr. was taken 8th overall by the Cleveland Guardians. Old friend Chili Davis was taken 9th by San Diego. With the 19th overall pick, the MN Twins selected C Terry Kennedy.    1977 All Stars: SP Bert Blylevin (6x), C Butch Wynegar (1x), 1B Phillip Zahn (2x), SS Kenneth Bruno (4x).   The Twins won another AL West title with 103 wins, and 1974 28th round pick LF Timothy Clemmons had a crazy boost in player development. He finishes as the first .400 hitter since Ted Williams!   Sid Hartman faced off against close, personal friend @stringer bell in the ALCS, and @stringer bell ended up winning the series 4-1. He will face off against Cyborg @USAFChief's Astros in the World Series.    Houston wins their first WS in game 7! It's their first WS title in franchise history.    1977-78 Offseason:   LF Timothy Clemmons swept both the ROY and MVP of 1977.    SP Warren Spahn is the lone entry to the 1978 HOF Class.    1978 Season:   The Twins are off to a hot start at 25-15, and the Astros are off to a poor start after winning the World Series last season. Houston was seeking MLB talent, and the result was a blockbuster trade... 23 year old St. Paul, MN native Jack Morris and 22 year old 2B/3B Guy Sularz were traded to Minnesota for a trio of 26 year old players - SP Eric Rasmussen, 2B Leonard Bonk, and 3B Robert Pierce.    Milestone watch: Rod Carew eclipses 2,000 hits as a 32 year old. 34 year old Rusty Staub achieved the 2,500 hit milestone.    1978 Draft:   1. SEA - 1B Andres "Big Cat" Galarraga  2. PHI - RF Donnie Baseball Mattingly 3. BAL - SP Fernando Valenzuela 4. CIN - 1B Kent Hrbek 5. NYM - RF Brett Butler   RF Chili Davis was selected 7th overall by the Red Sox. 3B Gary Gaetti was selected 9th by Montreal.    With the 30th overall selection, the Twins selected 18 year old SP Orel "Bulldog" Herscheiser.    1978 All Stars: 22 year old SP Scott Budner (1976 R15 1x), 26 year old RP Bill Castro (1976 trade with PHI 1x), C Butch Wynegar (2x), 1B/DH Phillip Zahn (3x), and LF Timothy Clemmons (2x)    It was a tight race in September, but the Twins ended up 2 games back of the 93 win AL West champion California Angels.    The World Series featured the California Angels vs. Atlanta Braves. The Braves won the series 4-1.   1978-79 Offseason:   The Twins hired an unorthodox manager once Tony Oliva decided to leave for greener pastures. Recently retired 28 year old Tom Kelly will be taking over after signing a 5 year contract.   Timothy Clemmons was once a 28th round pick in 1974, but he has become the league's best player. At 22, he won his 2nd MVP award, and signed a historic 12 year, $29 million extension with the Twins.    Minnesota had an opportunity to bring back a St. Paul legend, and did exactly so. Signing 27 year old RF Dave Winfield to an 8 year contract for $950,000 AAV.    The 1979 HOF Class includes 2 first ballots in DET RF Al Kaline, and MIN 1B Harmon Killebrew. As well as SF Giants SP Juan Marichal in his 2nd year of eligibility,   1979 Season:   1979 Draft: 1. SEA - LF Eric Davis 2. TOR - RF Darryl Strawberry 3. CHC - CF Ivan Calderon 4. BOS - 3B Von Hayes 5. MON - 3B Danny Tartabull    With the 26th overall pick, the Twins select 3B Randy Ready    Twins All Stars: SP Bert Blyleven (7x), CL Bill Castro (2x), C Butch Wynegar (3x), 1B Phillip Zahn (4x), LF Timothy Clemmons (3x), RF Dave Winfield (2x)   Timothy Clemmons wins his 3rd batting title, and NYM 1B Rod Carew wins his 2nd batting title.   The Twins and Yankees face off in the ALCS. San Francisco and New York Mets face off in the NLCS. MIN and SF sweep the Championship Series and face each other in the World Series. The Giants held off the Twins 4 games to 2 and win their 4th WS title in the series!   1979-1980 Offseason:   The LA Dodgers poached Assistant GM Adam Thompson, who was Sid Hartman's close personal friend the last 4 seasons. As well as long time bench coach Gus Bell to be their manager.   World Series titles since 1961: MIN 5, SF 4, and the following teams with 1 title... LAD, NYY, BOS, OAK, PIT, PHI, ATL, CLE, HOU, TEX   Jim Kaat decides to forgo a coaching career and agrees to move up to the Front Office. He will be Sid's new close, personal friend. AAA Manager Wade Blasingame was promoted to Bench Coach.    Nolan Ryan after 14 years and 190 wins with the Mets, is heading home to the Houston Astros in a blockbuster 6 player trade. @USAFChief wants to get back to the playoffs after a disappointing 90 loss season.    The Twins traded 27 year old CP Bill Castro, an all star the previous 2 seasons, to Cincinnati for 24 year old CP Ron Davis and 27 year old AAAA reliever Al Holland.   Jim Rice, the top FA, signs an 8 year contract with the Boston Red Sox. Willie Stargell returns to Pittsburgh for his age 40 season after spending a number of years with the Dodgers.   The 1980 HOF class is a lone entrant, Hammer Hank Aaron who finished with 635 career HRs.    1980 Season:   Draft time!   1. SEA - 3B Kevin Mitchell 2. SEA - LF Eric Davis 3. CLE - 1B Fred "Crime Dog" McGriff 4. TOR - RF Paul O'Niell 5. SD - LF Lenny Dykstra 6. HOU - LF John Kruk 7. CHC - RF Tony Gwynn   With the 29th overall selection, the Twins select RF Devon White.    1980 All Stars: SP Bert Blyleven (8x), C Butch Wynegar (4x), 1B Phillip Zahn (5x), SS Kenneth Bruno (5x), CF Timothy Clemmons (4x), RF Dave Winfield (3x).   Willie Stargell hits HR #500 at the trade deadline!   The Twins win the AL West title with 98 wins and face off against @ashbury's Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers prevail 3 games to 2 and face off against the Montreal Expos in the WS. Montreal is the 1980 Champ winning 4 games to 1!

Introduction of the series here
Part 2: 1961-1962 Offseason MLB expansion here
In the 1962 regular season, the Minnesota Twins showcased their talent with players like Harmon Killebrew, Jack Kralick, and Don Lee earning All-Star nods. With a 45-40 record, they stood in 4th place at the All-Star break. A notable trade saw Lenny Green moved to the St. Louis Cardinals, paving the way for the rising star Tony Oliva. However, their playoff hopes dimmed by September 20, finishing tied for 3rd with the New York Yankees at 90 wins. The Red Sox represented the AL, while the San Francisco Giants emerged as NL champions.
During the offseason, Pedro Ramos and Harmon Killebrew originated the "Get to Know 'Em" campaign because Metropolitan Stadium is hovering around 55% of its capacity...

The Houston Colt .45s, led by @USAFChiefin his first season of ownership, struggled as expected for an expansion team, losing 113 games. Despite the challenges, they had the promising 18-year-old outfielder Rusty Staub as a building block for the future. The Chicago White Sox experienced a significant downturn, going from 102 wins in 1961 to 65 wins in 1962.
The San Francisco Giants, boasting players like Willie McCovey and Willie Mays, dominated the 1962 season, earning the World Series title by defeating the New York Yankees in a 4-1 series. Willie McCovey is also this series' 1st Triple Crown winner for batting! 

In the 1962-63 offseason, individual accolades came as Zoilo Versalles won a gold glove at shortstop, and Harmon Killebrew and Bob Allison secured silver slugger awards. A major trade involved sending Bernie Allen to the Milwaukee Braves for Frank Bolling and Sandy Alomar. The Twins made no notable free agent signings. Even with the lack of activity, the team was predicted to perform very well in the upcoming season.

The 1963 season was marked by a close pennant race with the Twins, Yankees, and White Sox.

Despite a strong showing, the Twins were eliminated on the 161st game of the regular season. Pascual led MLB in pitching wins with 20, and Killebrew topped the charts in home runs with 42. The Los Angeles Dodgers, led by Sandy Koufax, won the World Series against the New York Yankees.

In the 1963-64 offseason, Gold Gloves were awarded to Earl Battey and Zoilo Versalles, while Battey, Rich Rollins, and Bob Allison earned Silver Slugger Awards. The Twins signed 18-year-olds Dave Boswell and Reggie Smith. A major trade with the Baltimore Orioles brought Jackie Brandt to the Twins.

The 1964 season was a year made for the cinema theatres! 
The Twins are 52-29 and in 2nd place in the AL at the All-Star break. 1.5 games back from the New York Yankees, It was another star studded affair for the Twins, with 7 All-Stars named.  21 year old RP Pete Magrini, C Earl Battey, 1B Don Mincher, 2B Rich Rollins, 3B Harmon Killebrew, LF Bob Allison, and RF Tony Oliva were named to the All Star team.    The Twins are in a 3 way tie with the Yankees and Tigers at the trade deadline with a 64-39 record. At the deadline, the Twins traded SP Pedro Ramos to the Los Angeles Dodgers for RP Ron Perranoski. While Ramos had a 2.81 ERA in 94 innings prior to the deadline, the underlying numbers were not promising, and 25 year old Phil Niekro was ready to make the transition from reliever to the starting rotation.    It was a 3 team race starting in September between the Twins, Yankees, and Tigers.     With 2 games left in the season, it was still anyone's chance to win the division. The Twins and Yankees played in a 1 game take all series to represent the AL in the World Series. Game 163 was dictated by both catchers throughout the game. Earl Battey came through with the walk off hit in the 12th inning. 
 
The Twins faced a powerhouse 107 win LA Dodgers team led by Triple Crown winning SP Sandy Koufax. The Twins won the series 4-2 for their first title since relocating to Bloomington, MN! 

Introduction of the series here
Part 2: 1961-1962 Offseason MLB expansion here
In the 1962 regular season, the Minnesota Twins showcased their talent with players like Harmon Killebrew, Jack Kralick, and Don Lee earning All-Star nods. With a 45-40 record, they stood in 4th place at the All-Star break. A notable trade saw Lenny Green moved to the St. Louis Cardinals, paving the way for the rising star Tony Oliva. However, their playoff hopes dimmed by September 20, finishing tied for 3rd with the New York Yankees at 90 wins. The Red Sox represented the AL, while the San Francisco Giants emerged as NL champions.
During the offseason, Pedro Ramos and Harmon Killebrew originated the "Get to Know 'Em" campaign because Metropolitan Stadium is hovering around 55% of its capacity...

The Houston Colt .45s, led by @USAFChiefin his first season of ownership, struggled as expected for an expansion team, losing 113 games. Despite the challenges, they had the promising 18-year-old outfielder Rusty Staub as a building block for the future. The Chicago White Sox experienced a significant downturn, going from 102 wins in 1961 to 65 wins in 1962.
The San Francisco Giants, boasting players like Willie McCovey and Willie Mays, dominated the 1962 season, earning the World Series title by defeating the New York Yankees in a 4-1 series. Willie McCovey is also this series' 1st Triple Crown winner for batting! 

In the 1962-63 offseason, individual accolades came as Zoilo Versalles won a gold glove at shortstop, and Harmon Killebrew and Bob Allison secured silver slugger awards. A major trade involved sending Bernie Allen to the Milwaukee Braves for Frank Bolling and Sandy Alomar. The Twins made no notable free agent signings. Even with the lack of activity, the team was predicted to perform very well in the upcoming season.

The 1963 season was marked by a close pennant race with the Twins, Yankees, and White Sox.

Despite a strong showing, the Twins were eliminated on the 161st game of the regular season. Pascual led MLB in pitching wins with 20, and Killebrew topped the charts in home runs with 42. The Los Angeles Dodgers, led by Sandy Koufax, won the World Series against the New York Yankees.

In the 1963-64 offseason, Gold Gloves were awarded to Earl Battey and Zoilo Versalles, while Battey, Rich Rollins, and Bob Allison earned Silver Slugger Awards. The Twins signed 18-year-olds Dave Boswell and Reggie Smith. A major trade with the Baltimore Orioles brought Jackie Brandt to the Twins.

The 1964 season was a year made for the cinema theatres! 
The Twins are 52-29 and in 2nd place in the AL at the All-Star break. 1.5 games back from the New York Yankees, It was another star studded affair for the Twins, with 7 All-Stars named.  21 year old RP Pete Magrini, C Earl Battey, 1B Don Mincher, 2B Rich Rollins, 3B Harmon Killebrew, LF Bob Allison, and RF Tony Oliva were named to the All Star team.    The Twins are in a 3 way tie with the Yankees and Tigers at the trade deadline with a 64-39 record. At the deadline, the Twins traded SP Pedro Ramos to the Los Angeles Dodgers for RP Ron Perranoski. While Ramos had a 2.81 ERA in 94 innings prior to the deadline, the underlying numbers were not promising, and 25 year old Phil Niekro was ready to make the transition from reliever to the starting rotation.    It was a 3 team race starting in September between the Twins, Yankees, and Tigers.     With 2 games left in the season, it was still anyone's chance to win the division. The Twins and Yankees played in a 1 game take all series to represent the AL in the World Series. Game 163 was dictated by both catchers throughout the game. Earl Battey came through with the walk off hit in the 12th inning. 
 
The Twins faced a powerhouse 107 win LA Dodgers team led by Triple Crown winning SP Sandy Koufax. The Twins won the series 4-2 for their first title since relocating to Bloomington, MN! 

Welcome back to another Mill1634 blog entry. I've been away for a while as I just finished up my degree and started out my first job, but I've still been hanging around in the game threads. Like many Twins'' fans, I am thrilled with the way things have gone so far but am also realistic that this team is not in a position to threaten the true top teams in the league. However, I do not believe that they are all that far away. It's no secret that the bullpen has been horrendous outside of Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran, and the rotation has been surprisingly productive despite being with Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Kenta Maeda for a large portion of the year while also getting poor performance from Dylan Bundy and losing Sonny Gray to the IL twice. Part of the reason that the starting pitcher's have performed so well is because of the leash Rocco has had on his pitchers. However, this isn't as effective when the bullpen is terrible. Today, I'll attempt to fix both the rotation and the bullpen. I believe that it is realistic for the Twins to trade for two relievers and one starter, but today I'm going to be aggressive and add two starters and three relievers. I'll also add a surprising bat that would have many Twins fans excited. 
 
Identifying the Sellers
The first thing to do as the fake front office is to identify the sellers. I've put these teams into three separate categories: Will sell, should sell, and could sell. The first category is the true bottom teams in the league that I would be shocked if they don't have a selloff. The middle category are teams that are sticking around but don't have enough talent to really go for it. The final category, could sell, features a small set of teams that are either near or above .500 but are either over performing or play in a great division. 
Will Sell 
Orioles
Tigers
Royals
A's
Nats
Cubs
Pirates
Reds
Rockies
I don't think that any of this list is shocking or controversial at all. None of these teams have a shot at the playoffs, and a fair amount of them are at least another year from competing. The one team on here who will maybe hold onto some pieces is the Orioles, who have been playing good baseball as of late and are nearing a contention window. For that reason, I would be uber shocked if they trade someone with team control like reliever Felix Bautista. However, I think players that are expiring can be had.
Should sell
Marlins
DBacks
Rangers
 
Again, this is a small set of teams that I think should sell, and probably will end up selling. The Marlins feature a great rotation and are near .500 for the first time in forever, but are in 4th place in the NLE, and really have no path to the playoffs. The DBacks are another team similar to the Orioles, where they are playing better baseball than they have in a long time, but have some pieces that can be sold off to future on 2023 and beyond. The final team, the Rangers, spent a ton of money this off-season but still aren't in a position to push for the playoffs. 
 
Could sell
White Sox 
Guardians 
Angels
Two AL central foes here in the final section in the White Sox and Guardians. I do not expect either of these teams to sell, but could see it. The White Sox have been playing poorly all year and certainly have some pieces that would get a haul at the deadline like Liam Hendricks or Lucas Giolito. The Guardians, who got insanely hot last month, have settled back to earth and aren't really a true thread in my mind. Their owner refuses to spend money which is the main reason that I have them in this section, but I think it would take a run of poor play leading up to the trade deadline to truly see a sell off. The Angels, who have been terrible despite having two of the best players on the planet, are a prime team that should sell but I don't think they will. 
 
The Goal
The goal of this trade deadline is to make the team a true contender. This is going to be tough for some fans as I am going to trade some prospects that are highly thought of, including by myself. However, I believe that this may be the best team the Twins will have with Byron Buxton on it, as Carlos Correa is unlikely to stick around. The goal is to add one starter that is better than both Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray, and another starter that I am comfortable starting in game 4 of the divisional series. As far as the bullpen, I want to add an arm that I am comfortable throwing in the 8th or 9th inning, and arm that is in the Griffin Jax/Caleb Thielbar tier, and a left handed pitcher, as I'm not uber high on Jovani Moran's control issues playing out well in the playoffs.
 
Acquire RH SP Tyler Mahle from Cincinnati for IF Austin Martin, IF Keoni Cavaco, and IF Yunior Severino 

This is clearly the biggest acquisition I'll be making as the GM of the Twins, acquiring Tyler Mahle from the Reds. Mahle has great stuff and another year of team control remaining. He's certainly better than Joe Ryan, and is probably a half-step up from Sonny Gray. Mahle is likely to be one of the more sought after pitchers at the deadline, but isn't even the best starter the Reds will trade this deadline, as that title belongs to Luis Castillo. However, I prefer Mahle as I believe the cost will be a lot less. In the deal, we give up Austin Martin, who has struggled this year but still has all the talent in the world. The Reds may not view Martin as a centerpiece, but there is a chance that they do. Keoni Cavaco was a first round pick a few years ago and has finally started to come around for Fort Myers this year. Severino is a young middle infield prospect who is thrown is a lottery ticket. Predicting these types of guys is nearly impossible as all organizations value different things. 
Acquire RH SP Merrill Kelly and LH RP Joe Mantiply from Arizona for SP Blayne Enlow, OF Matt Wallner, IF/OF Edouard Julien, and OF Mark Contreras
Kelly, who dominated the Twins earlier this year, is one of the least talked about names at the deadline. He doesn't have elite stuff and he probably isn't going to dominate a playoff caliber lineup, but he's a veteran that knows how to pitch similar to Sonny Gray. He's signed through 2024, although that may not be a great negotiation tool for the DBacks as he's likely not going to age all that well. He has an ERA in the mid-3's with the FIP numbers to back that up. Mantiply is another pitcher that isn't talked about nearly enough, and is the left hander that I would be seeking out if I was in an MLB front office. Mantiply has an ERA below 2 and isn't arb eligible until 2027. However, he's already 31 years old and with the volatility of relievers I would expect the DBacks to strike while the iron is hot. The headliner in this deal is Matt Wallner, who's been crushing the baseball at Wichita and is likely MLB ready. Blayne Enlow and Mark Contreras are both included to clear space off the 40 man, but both does have a small amount of value. Enlow is working his way back from injury, and Contreras is probably a 4th OF. Edouard Julien has an OPS of .876 for Wichita and has an OBP in the .420s. 
 
Acquire RH RP Daniel Bard from Colorado for RHP Ronny Henriquez
Daniel Bard is one of the better stories in baseball. He left the game for quite some time but returned last season and is now a fireballing reliever who has found success in Colorado, which is not something to take for granted. The main reason the return on Bard is so light is because he is already 37 years old and is expiring after this season is over. He's struck out 38 hitters in just 30.2 innings of work, and has 16 saves with an ERA of 2.35. Bard would immediately slot in as the teams 2nd best reliever behind Jhoan Duran, and could slide everyone down in the pecking order. Henqiuez was acquired in the Mitch Garver trade and has had an up and down season for St Paul. I believe that he is destined for the bullpen, and could maybe even help the Twins, but I'd rather acquire someone who I know can help the Twins in the year we're "going for it."
 
Acquire RH RP David Robertson from Chicago for OF Yesser Mercedes
Similar to Bard, Robertson is a 37 year old reliever on a bad team that was out of baseball for a year and came back as a lights out bullpen weapon. He too becomes a free agent after this season. This is your classic lottery ticker prospect in Yesser Mercedes, who was an IAFA signing a few years ago and not much is known about him, although he is a top 30 prospect in the Twins system. Robertson too would become one of the better arms in the Twins bullpen, although I would have him 4th in the hierarchy behind Duran, Bard, and Jax. 
Acquire 1B/DH S Josh Bell from Washington for IF Spencer Steer, 1B Aaron Sabato, and RHP Drew Strotman

This would easily be the 2nd biggest trade pulled off with myself in the GM chair, adding a game changing bat in Josh Bell. Bell boast in OPS+ of 158 this season in his expiring contract year, and will be one of the most sought after bats on the market. He hits for average and power and would provide power from both sides of the plate and would hit in the middle of the order. Of course, this requires us to give up rising prospect Spencer Steer, who I think should've been included on the top 100 prospects list at mid-season update. We also include former first rounder Aaron Sabato, who has huge power and draws walks, but also has a ton of swing and miss stuff. We also send back Drew Strotman who is a lottery type of guy in this deal as the Nats may believe he can still start, or be a weapon out of a terrible Nationals bullpen.
 
The Results
Now let's take a look at where the pitching staff as a whole stands assuming we are in the playoffs. I'll assume we're only going to use 4 starters in the playoffs, as most teams do. I will also assume that everyone is healthy, but I am assuming that Jorge Alcala does not make a comeback this year. I am also assuming that Kenta Maeda does not show enough to make an impact on the staff so he will be left off of this hypothetical playoff pitching staff, as well as what the lineup would look like with Josh Bell in the middle of it. 
Starting Rotation
1. Tyler Mahle
2. Sonny Gray
3. Joe Ryan
4. Merrill Kelly
Bullpen
CL - RH Jhoan Duran
SU - RH Daniel Bard
SU - RH Griffin Jax
MR - LH Joe Mantiply
MR - LH Caleb Thielbar
MR - RH Emilio Pagan
MR - RH David Roberson 
LR - RH Josh Winder
LR/Spot Starter - RH Chris Archer
Left off: RH Dylan Bundy, LH Jovani Moran, RH Bailey Ober, RH Kenta Maeda, RH Trevor Megill, RH Jharrel Cotton, RH Jorge Alcala, RH Tyler Duffey 
 
This gives us a 9 man bullpen and a 13 man pitching staff with a great mix of right handed relievers that can blow hitters away. It also features two crafty lefties in Joe Mantiply and Caleb Thielbar, both of whom are deadly against left handed hitters. It also slides Emilio Pagan way down in the pecking order where I think he's best suited, and allows Tyler Duffey to throw mop up duty. Josh Winder can come in in the playoffs and give you multiple innings of effective relief. Chris Archer is a guy who can do similar things to Winder. I left off Bundy because he isn't playoff quality, Moran because I don't see the club carrying 3 lefties, Ober because he isn't good enough for the rotation and don't think his stuff plays up out of the bullpen, and Kenta because I don't know how his rehab will shake out so we won't count on him, as well as Jorge Alcala for similar reason. Megill and Cotton are both left off as I do not see them remaining on the 40 man roster if all these moves were to come to fruition.
 
The Lineup
DH Luis Arraez
CF Byron Buxton
SS Carlos Correa
1B Josh Bell
LF Alex Kirilloff
2B Jorge Polanco
3B Jose Miranda
RF Max Kepler
C Ryan Jeffers
Bench: C Gary Sanchez, 3B Gio Urshella, IF/OF Nick Gordon, OF Kyle Garlick
Left off: 1B Miguel Sano, OF Gilberto Celestino, OF Trevor Larnach
 
This gives the Twins a potent lineup with that adds depth in Josh Bell pushing Jorge Polanco to the 6 spot with Alex Kirilloff being the lefty that hits in the middle of the order, and Jose Miranda getting the start at 3rd over Urshella because he is such a better hitter than Gio. Jeffers gets the start at catcher as he's much better defensively, but both would play in the playoffs. Nick Gordon is taken on the playoff roster over Trevor Larnach as he provides speed off the bench and also the ability to play CF without Gilberto Celestino on the roster, whos off because of Josh Bell's arrival. Kyle Garlick is obviously kept on the roster to start against left handed pitchers.
 
How would you grade this deadline? Drop a comment below! Thanks for reading, and Go Twins!
 

 
 
 

There was a time in baseball history where throwing in the towel and using a position player to pitch was a rare sight to see. Heck, I’m sure people tuned in to witness the comedy and see a position player actually try on the mound. 
For example, Jeff Francour pitching 2 innings in 2015, topping out at 88 MPH and mixing in 4 different pitches to boot. 
Or Ichiro Suzuki taking the craft seriously, throwing 87 MPH and mixing in 3 different pitches during his outing in 2015. 
And of course, Willians Astudillo who threw mid 70s and the infamous 40 something MPH eephus. 
Back in 2011, we only saw 8 appearances by position players on the mound. The number has exploded in recent years. 
 2017: 65
2018: 78
2019: 90
2020: 50
2021: 95
2022: 23 as of June 1. Can’t find exact number up to June 23
It’s also not just the sheer number of position players pitching that’s making this once novelty incredibly boring. The way they’re now pitching is 10 year old little league status.
If position players are now being informed not to try at all on the mound and throw 40 MPH floaters, what are we doing here? It’s no longer entertainment. 
The problem is only going to continue getting worse with the rule in place to have a max of 13 pitchers on staff. Teams will continue to throw the white flag down or up by 6 runs to save their bullpen arms for another game. Paying fans will watch professional baseball players lob pitches 40 MPH for an inning or 3. And the product will suffer. 

Back in March, Matthew Trueblood wrote an excellent article on Twins Daily about what a potential Byron Buxton extension would look like. Now, obviously this was before Buxton’s phenomenal (injury plagued, but still phenomenal) 2021 campaign. After the season Buxton had, his value for a future extension skyrocketed.
With Byron Buxton up until about 2019, the main question was always: “Will he be able to hit major league pitching?”. He always played phenomenal defense, ran the bases ridiculously well, and had an incredibly strong arm. He just had to put it together at the plate. Well, since the start of 2019, Buxton is 20th in the MLB in OPS and 4th in the MLB in slugging percentage. Buxton has really put it together at the plate in the last 3 seasons and it has been a joy to watch. 
Before we get into his contract specifics, let’s highlight how special Byron Buxton is.
5-Tool Player
Byron Buxton helps the Twins win games, plain and simple. Since the beginning of 2019, the Twins are 104-68 when Buxton plays, and 106-106 when he does not. This means that they play at roughly a 98 win pace when he is on the field and an 81 win pace when he is not. This is the difference between not making the playoffs at all and getting home-field advantage in the playoffs. Let’s take a dive into what makes Buxton such a difference-maker for the Twins.
Hitting
I mentioned earlier how Buxton has really found his stride with his swing. Back in May of 2019, towards the beginning of Buxton’s outbreak, Parker Hageman wrote a phenomenal article about Byron Buxton’s swing. He took a deep dive into the swing adjustments Buxton had made that year that led to his success. Ever since then, his career has taken off.
Buxton has been riddled with injuries his entire career, that is no secret. But since 2019, out of all players with a maximum of 700 plate appearances, Buxton leads with 102 extra base hits. The next closest player is Buxton’s teammate, Mitch Garver with 79 extra base hits. With limited appearances, Buxton is thriving.
Using Baseball Savant’s handy Affinity feature, you can see which players have the most similar batted ball profiles to each other. In 2021, the most similar batters to Buxton were Yordan Alvarez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Rafael Devers, Salvador Perez, Josh Donaldson, and Aaron Judge. Buxton is up there with the cream of the crop. If you follow baseball at all, you know all of these guys are absolute stars and Buxton’s name belongs in that conversation as well.
2021 was his best year yet. He had a 169 wRC+, had 42 extra base hits (19 home runs), and a 1.005 OPS. Buxton proved in 2021 that he couldn’t just hit, but absolutely MASH major league pitching.
Defense
Buxton has always been elite defensively, winning a platinum glove as the AL’s best defensive player in 2017. Since 2016, Buxton has 58 outs above average (OAA), the 5th most among all center fielders. All of the players ahead of him (Lorenzo Cain, Kevin Kiermaier, Billy Hamilton, and Ender Inciarte) played at least 140 more games than Buxton in that span. If Buxton had played 140 more games, he would have the most OAA by 10 outs. It is safe to say that when Buxton is healthy he is the best defensive CF in baseball. He also has an absolute cannon in the outfield. His arm strength has been measured at 99 MPH before, so he definitely has an above average arm.
Speed
Buxton has always been one of the fastest players in the MLB. In 2021, Buxton was in the 99th percentile in sprint speed. His average sprint speed was 30 ft/sec and he had the fastest average home to first time at 4.00 sec. Buxton is a game-changer on the bases and has made a huge impact on many games on the basepaths, most notably walking off the Detroit Tigers on a seemingly routine ground ball to the shortstop. 
Overall Value
Since 2019, Buxton has been worth 8.1 fWAR in 187 games, or a pace of 7 fWAR per 162 games. To put that number into perspective, there were zero position players with a WAR of 7 or over in 2021. In the last full season, 2019, the only players with a WAR 7 or above were Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Marcus Semien, and Anthony Rendon.
Buxton’s WAR in 2021 was 4.2 over 61 games. Extrapolated to 162 games, that would be the equivalent of 11.2. That is absolutely ridiculous. That would be tied for the 17th best single season of all time in terms of WAR.
Injuries
Just looking at his raw per 162 numbers, you would think that the Twins should sign Buxton to a 10 year, $500 million extension. Unfortunately, Buxton has been injury prone throughout his career. As of July 2021, Buxton had only played 181 of 484 possible games since 2018. It is hard to justify giving him a big extension if he isn’t going to be healthy for a majority of it.
Extension structure
In short, I would offer Buxton an extension over seven years. It will start in 2023 and go through 2029, his age 29 through 35 season. As Buxton ages, his defense and speed will most likely deteriorate and he will not be as valuable. You also have to factor in his injury history so you won’t be paying full price.
Consider the following:
Since 2019, Buxton has played 187 of a possible 384 games, or 48% of possible games.  Since 2019, Buxton has accumulated 8.1 WAR in 187 games, or 7 WAR/162 games According to Fangraphs, you should pay $8M/WAR. So,
If Buxton were to play 162 games, he would be worth 7 WAR x $8M/WAR = $56M/year This is obviously egregious, especially considering the Twins usually have a payroll from 125-140M.
According to spotrac, with the exception of the Dodgers, the top payrolls are right around $200M. We are going to assume those teams are able to use the $8M/WAR calculation
Since the Twins will use maximum 140M of payroll, 70% of what the top payrolls use, we will also use 0.7 as our multiplier for the WAR value calculation.
$8M/WAR x 0.7 = $5.6M/WAR
Using our new 5.6M/WAR, he would be worth roughly $39M a year if he played 162. I think this is fair for a player of his caliber. He has been an MVP level player the last 3 seasons, and shows no signs of stopping.
Besides injuries.
Since Buxton has only played about 48% of possible games, I would pay him 48% of that $39M per year.
39M x 0.48 = about $19M a year. This is the base salary I would give Buxton. His base contract should be 7 years, $133 million
However, we should account for the fact that there is a chance he remains healthy. This is where it gets tricky. This is where I bring in incentives to the contract.
Buxton’s 7 WAR per 162 is worth 0.043 WAR per game. The current contract is assuming he plays 80 games If Buxton plays 120 games, he will get the original 19 million plus an additional amount of money We will determine this amount of money by multiplying his WAR per game by the additional 40 games he will be playing
40 games x 0.043 WAR per game = 1.7 WAR x $5.6M per WAR = $9.5M If Buxton plays 120 games, he should earn an additional 10 million.
For 130 games, he will be worth an additional 2.4 million using that formula For 140 games, he will be worth another 2.4 million And for 150, he will be worth 2.4 million more. Contract Summary
Base contract: 7 years, $133 million ($19M AAV)
120 games incentive: $9.5M/yr ($28.5M AAV)
130 games incentive: $2.4M/yr ($30.9M AAV)
140 games incentive: $2.4M/yr ($33.3M AAV)
150 games incentive: $2.4M/yr ($35.7M AAV)
If Buxton plays 150 games, he could be making up to $35.7 million per year. This is the contract I would propose to Buxton because he would be getting a good amount of guaranteed money and it also helps him understand that playing a certain amount of games could get him an absurd amount of money.
How does this contract compare?
A salary of 19M per year (if he meets no incentives) would make him the 27th highest paid position player in baseball. Since 2019, he is 33rd in WAR among all position players, so this base contract would be just about right. If he meets all of the incentives, he would be the highest paid position player in baseball, which is fair considering the amount of talent he has and his production over a full healthy season would be at an MVP level. I think at his peak, he will play about 120-130 games, making his salary between 28 and 31 million. This would put him in the range of the 5th to 8th highest position player in the league. 
TL: DR version
Pay Buxton a base salary of $19 million a year for 7 years, with games played incentives from 120 games to 150 games of various amounts that could net him up to $35.7 million per year.
Conclusion
Byron Buxton is a generational type of talent and I haven’t seen anyone like him in a Twins uniform my whole life. It would be a mistake to let him go just because of financial concerns. He is a player that you would rather overpay than not pay at all, so priority number ONE this offseason needs to be extending him. If there’s one player to offer this type of contract to, it’s Buck.
Thank you for reading, and Go Twins.
 

Full transparency: This is not a team intending to compete in 2022.  This team is loading up for 2023.
Trades and Extensions:
Sign Byron Buxton to a 7 year, 119M contract with incentives
Trade with Florida Marlins - Mitch Garver for SP Sixto Sanchez 
Trade with New York Mets - Josh Donaldson (plus 14M spread over two years) for RP Jose Butto
Let Colome walk.  Release Austidillo, Refsnyder, Minaya, and Cave.
Free Agency: 
Sign Corey Seager a 5 year 27M contract to play shortstop
Sign Michael Pineda back to a 2 year 24M contract with incentives
Sign Jon Gray to a 3 year 45M contract
Sign Sandy Leon to a 1 year, 2M contract
Sign Leury Garcia to a 1 year 5M contract
Sign Corey Knebel to a 3 year 24M contract
Sign Ehire Adrianza to a 2 year, 3M contract
Lineup/Defense
C - Jeffers  500k
1B - Kiriloff  500k
2B - Polanco 5.5M
SS - Seager 27M
3B - Arraez 2M
LF - Rooker 500k
CF - Buxton 17M
RF - Kepler 6.75M
DH - Sano 9.25M
Bench - Gordon 500k
Bench - Sandy Leon 2M
Bench - Leury Garcia 5M
Bench - Garlick or Larnach 500k
Bench - Adrianza 1.5M
Regular Lineup - Arraez-Buxton-Seager-Polanco-Kiriloff-Sano-Kepler-Rooker-Jeffers
Rotation/Bullpen
SP - Gray 15M
SP - Ryan 500k 
SP - Ober 500k
SP - Pineda 12M
SP - Sixto Sanchez 500k
CL - Rogers 6.7M
BP - Alcala 500k
BP - Duffey 3.7M
BP - Theilbar 1.2M
BP - Knebel 8M
BP - Dobnak 800k
BP - Gant 3.7
Total Salary: 138.6M  (Including the 7M deferred)
Rotation Depth: Gant, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Balazovic, Winder, Duran, SWR 
Bullpen Depth: Butto, Thorpe, Moran, Stashak, Strotman? Other assorted AA and AAA guys
OF Depth: Larnach needs to hit himself into a job. Marten should be a guy looking to get the job in LF.  As soon as mid-summer.  Almost the entire bench, plus Kiriloff and Arraez can also play in the OF.  
IF Depth - Adrianza is a jack of all trades, Gordon as well.  Being a lefty and a switch hitter gives some options for lineups.  Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda should be in this conversation mid-summer as well.
Catching depth: Leon exists to give Ben Rotrevedt time to be the long-term backup.  
 
The idea here is that 2022 is a transition year.  So, let Rooker/Larnach and Jeffers and Arraez play. Martin is going to take 2B or LF eventually.  Lewis and Miranda are going to be up to take over other positions eventually.  The team is strong up the middle, depth is better, and the team is primed for a 2023 coming out party.  Ditto the rotation - Gallen, Sanchez, Ryan, Ober, and the fleet of young arms gives this team options and upside.  Bullpen is stabilized.
 
By September 1 I’d love to see this group:  Seager-Buxton-Polanco-Kiriloff--Marten-Larnach-Miranda-Kepler-Jeffers  with a rotation of Gray-Ryan-Ober-Sanchez-Duran/Balazovic  That group is an upgrade here or there in 2023 from being a real force if we develop our talented youngsters.
 
 
 

I have seen several overtures to Pineda wanting to stay in Minnesota.  That is a hard find in the market and with our need of several starting pitchers, we should take a good look at what it should take to resign the veteran.  Here is the article from MlbTraderumors.com I just saw which spurred this blog post.  Baldelli Hopes Pineda Will Return To Twins In 2022 - MLB Trade Rumors.  I would think its either a 1 or 2 year contract. Since we need money in the budget to sign others its probably in the 8-12 million base guarantee per season.  There should be incentives for IP.  The size of the guarantee will determine what the incentives should be.  I think that with incentives should be able to make in 13-15 million range if he hits 180 innings and that should max out his incentives as he likely will not reach 200 innings.So for my guess I will go with a 2 year 22 million contract with 500,000 incentives starting at 120 innings, 140 innings, 160 innings and 180 innings.  for a possible 13 million per season.  Do you think he will resign with the Twins and if so how much?

Critique of a front office is easy to make in the midst of a deeply disappointing season. While many fans are languishing over the incoming July trade deadline, I've heard a lot of complaints about the lack of waiver claims made this season by the Minnesota Twins.
Why are the Twins continuing to trot out the likes of Colomé, Happ, and (formerly) Shoemaker, when the front office can claim replacement-level players from other teams for essentially nothing? 
The outright waiver transaction process is a deeply complicated one. Whenever a team wants to remove a player that is already on the 40-man roster, that player must first be offered to each of the other 29 major league teams. If another team claims that player, the player goes on that new team's 40-man roster. The full definition from MLB can be found here. 
Because I'm insane, and this season is awful, I decided to compile a list of every player that the Falvey/Levine front office has claimed from other organizations, in addition to players they've lost via waiver claims.
How have they fared in the waiver claim game?  Should they pick up the pace, now that they have nothing to lose? Do these claims actually amount to anything?
These questions are important... but so is the trip down memory lane, once you read some of these names. 
Players Acquired Via Waiver Claim
 
Date of Claim Player Claimed Position Team Claimed From fWAR in Minnesota 2/6/2017 Ehire Adrianza UTL IF San Francisco Giants 2.1 5/10/2017 Adam Wilk LHP New York Mets -0.2 6/7/2017 Chris Heston RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 0.0 3/24/2018 Kenny Vargas 1B Cincinatti Reds - 4/26/2018 David Hale RHP New York Yankees -0.2 5/28/2018 Taylor Motter UTL Seattle Mariners -0.3 8/3/2018 Johnny Field RF Cleveland Indians 0.1 8/3/2018 Oliver Drake RHP Cleveland Indians 0.2 10/31/2018 Michael Reed CF Atlanta Braves - 11/26/2018 C.J. Cron 1B Tampa Bay Rays 0.3 10/29/2019 Matt Wisler RHP Seattle Mariners 0.6 10/30/2020 Ian Gibault RHP Texas Rangers - 10/30/2020 Brandon Waddell  LHP Pittsburgh Pirates -0.3 2/5/2021 Ian Hamilton RHP Philadelphia Phillies - 2/11/2021 Kyle Garlick RF Atlanta Braves 0.3 6/22/2021 Beau Burrows RHP Detroit Tigers -           Total fWAR 2.6 The Twins have claimed a total of 16 players from opposing organizations since Falvey/Levine took over after the 2016 World Series. Of these 16 claims, their most consequential claim was their very first one. Ehire Adrianza was never a star, but a very productive role player for a number of contending Twins teams. 

After that, the list isn't so impressive. Matt Wisler was great at slinging sliders in the bullpen during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but the Twins cut him last offseason in a puzzling move. C.J. Cron and the currently-injured Kyle Garlick have been the largest "successes" outside of Adrianza and Wisler, each account for 0.3 fWAR as right-handed hitters that were acquired to mash left-handed pitching. 
Most of these players did not remain on the 40-man roster for a long time. Quite a few were lost to waivers shortly after the Twins acquired them, which include Kenny Vargas, Johnny Field, Oliver Drake, and Brandon Waddell. Such is the life on the waiver wire for many MLB players. 
Players Lost Via Waiver Claim
 
Date of Claim Player Position Team Claimed By fWAR after Minnesota 11/18/2016 Adam Brett Walker LF Milwaukee Brewers - 8/26/2017 Tim Melville RHP San Diego Padres -0.2 9/14/2017 Engelb Vielma SS San Francisco Giants -0.1 11/3/2017 Randy Rosario LHP Chicago Cubs -0.3 11/3/2017 Daniel Palka OF Chicago White Sox -0.7 11/6/2017 Nik Turley LHP Pittsburgh Pirates 0.2 1/22/2018 Buddy Boshers LHP Houston Astros 0.1 2/23/2018 JT Chargois RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 0.5 3/22/2018 Kenny Vargas 1B Cincinatti Reds - 7/9/2018 Ryan LaMarre CF Chicago White Sox 0.4 10/10/2018 Juan Graterol C Cincinatti Reds -0.2 11/1/2018 Johnny Field RF Chicago Cubs - 11/1/2018 Oliver Drake RHP Tampa Bay Rays 0.4 1/11/2019 Aaron Slegers RHP Pittsburgh Pirates 0.4 5/26/2019 Austin Adams RHP Detroit Tigers -0.1 7/20/2019 Adalberto Mejia LHP Los Angeles Angels 0.0 8/14/2019 Ryan Eades RHP Baltimore Orioles -0.2 9/16/2019 Marcos Diplan RHP Detroit Tigers - 11/4/2019 Stephen Gonsalves LHP New York Mets - 9/5/2020 Ildemaro Vargas 2B Chicago Cubs -0.5 10/1/2020 Sean Poppen RHP Pittsburgh Pirates -0.1 5/8/2021 Brandon Waddell LHP Baltimore Orioles 0 5/14/2021 Travis Blankenhorn 2B Los Angeles Dodgers -0.1 6/5/2021 Dakota Chalmers RHP Chicago Cubs - 6/18/2021 Shaun Anderson RHP Texas Rangers -           Total fWAR -0.5 You'll immediately notice this list of players lost via waivers during the Falvyey/Levine regime is a lot longer than the list of players they've acquired via waivers. All together, they have lost 25 players, which is 9 more players than they've claimed from other teams. 
The good news for the organization, is that this cumulative list has not come back to bite them. 10 of the 25 claimed players provided negative value for their new teams, after departing Minnesota. Daniel Palka's 2017 season really sunk this group, as he posted a -1.4 fWAR in only 93 plate appearances for the White Sox (after he provided 0.7 fWAR and a 109 wRC+ in 2018). 
The largest losses from this group have definitely been in the relief category, highlighted by JT Chargois, Oliver Drake, and Aaron Slegers. However, most of these players have had inconsistent careers, injuries, or both, in their time after playing for Minnesota. 
Even when factoring in some bullpen pieces this organization might regret losing, the total fWAR from these players after departing the Twins is -0.5 fWAR. The current front office has been right far more than wrong, when deciding how to churn the 40-man roster. 
Yearly Trends And Overall Takeaway
Year Players Claimed From Other Teams Players Claimed By Other Teams 2016/2017 3 6 2018 7 7 2019 1 6 2020 2 2 2021 3 4 Total Players 16 25       Total fWAR 2.6 -0.5 fWAR Difference   3.1 Overall, the Twins have gained 3.1 fWAR from their decisions to gain and lose players from the waiver wire. That's a pretty decent result for a type of front office transaction that is often overlooked. It averages out to about 0.69 fWAR per season, factoring in the 4.5 seasons of the Falvey/Levine regime. 
Most of that waiver activity came in 2017 and 2018, when the front office was still adjusting to their inherited players from the previous front office. Successful teams don't always gamble roster spots on players exposed to outright waivers, which is evident in the 2019 team. 
One major caveat to point out across the yearly trend is that teams were probably hesitant to claim players from other organizations during the COVID-19 pandemic, so 2020 and early 2021 should be viewed through that lens.
However, that didn't stop the Twins from claiming 3 bullpen arms (Ian Gibault, Brandon Waddell, and Ian Hamilton), and Kyle Garlick this offseason. The jury is still out on these claims, but Waddell did not go well. 
The most interesting thing about 2021 is that the Twins lost 4 players during their early season free-fall (Brandon Waddell, Travis Blankenhorn, Dakota Chalmers, and Shaun Anderson), before claiming Beau Burrows a few weeks ago from the Detroit Tigers.
Is former first-round draft pick Beau Burrows the tip of the iceberg? Now that 2021 is officially kaput, will the front office be more aggressive? 
I sure hope so. Moves will be made in the next few weeks, and this 40-man roster will be significantly different as we approach the trade deadline. The 40-man roster will likely be smaller, and the Twins will be in front of the line when contenders have to cut players to account for their deadline additions. 
Waiver claims are rarely sexy transactions, but sometimes you stumble into a Ehire Adrianza or a Matt Wisler. The Twins have proven to be more successful than not when it comes to their waiver claim game. It's time to play, because there's simply nothing to lose. 

We were excited when our prospects came up and the future looked bright - in 2019 that future arrived and it was great, but we expected a longer run.  The foundation was going to be Berrios - I know all the arguments that he is not a true Ace, but he has been our best pitcher and is a solid middle of the rotation arm that we did not build around.  53 - 40 with a 4.11 era for his six years 8.1 WAR. 
The expected stars on offense were Sano and Buxton
Miguel Sano - who is in his 7th year (7.8 WAR).  He has played in 100+ games three times.  236/329/489 is his seven year slash line, but look at the trends - BA - 269, 236, 264, 199, 247, 204, 158.  His last three OPS - 923, 757, 656.  BR offensive War (defense is negative so I won't bother.  He is here for his bat.) 2.4, 1.7, 3.1 0.1, 3.7, 0.5, 0.1.  Miguel seems like he plateaued and is lost. 
Byron Buxton - 7 years and 14.5 WAR - if only he could stay healthy.  No doubt his hitting is on the rise - here is his yearly OPS 576, 714, 728, 383, 827, 844, 1.180.   Buxton has found his bat, but he has played in 456 games out of a possible 922.  He has missed half his possible games.  This does not diminish his quality when he is on the field, but makes it hard to cover CF when your other option is moving Kepler or using Cave. 
The next three foundation pieces did not have the same star power potential, but they were expected to be solid pieces to round out the team 
Jorge Polanco - no longer a SS his value has diminished in the field.   He has contributed 8.8 WAR.  His career slash is 274/333/430/762 and he has been fairly steady, but in 2019 his OPS was 841 after a career streak of 700s+, but then 2020 and 2021 that OPS mark dropped below 700 and with his fielding not being an asset any longer he career seems to have flattened out and his value may have peaked.
Max Kepler shocks me with a 13.2 WAR.  A slash line of 236/318/443/761 does not seem to warrant such a good WAR grade. When I look at his OWar 9.7 and his DWar 2.1 they add up to 11.8 so someone will have to explain BR math to me.  He peaked in 2019 like so many did and had his only year with more than 20 HRs,  It was the only year he hit more than 250.  And it was the only year he slugged more than 500.  Surrounding 2019 his BA was 224 in 2018, 228, and 212 the last two years.  
Eddie Rosario is the last of the big six and they have already given up on him and let him shuffle off to Cleveland, so he was the first of the six to disappoint enough to be moved on.  His seven year slash line is 274/308/469/777.  His peak was 2017/2018.

Buxton 14.5According to BR WAR Rosario had a total of 12 which means it we rank the six by WAR it would be 
Kepler 13.2
Rosario 12
Polanco 8.8
Berrios 8.1 (he is the only one with six seasons instead of seven)
Sano 7.8
 
 

Mrs Ash and I went to Worcester last night to see their brand-new AAA team, the Worcester Red Sox (known almost exclusively as the Woo Sox).  It's part of our farewell tour in New England as we prepare to move back to Nevada.
We took a train scheduled to arrive an hour early, so as to have time to take in the sights, but mechanical troubles had us traveling about 5 MPH for the last 5 miles, meaning we arrived about when the next train was supposed to (though it became delayed too, in a ripple effect), and we found our seats only in time for the first pitch.
Polar Park, named for a local soft-drink maker, is a nice modern ballpark.  Most of the food tends toward mundane hot dogs and nachos, but we did pass up the long line for the George's Coney Island hot dog stand (which is a satellite of a Worcester landmark that Mrs Ash and I ate at on one previous trip to the city) and likewise long line at a BBQ stand.  The park was pretty close to a sellout crowd on this Wednesday night, not too surprising for a brand new team/park but the waning of the pandemic makes everything hard to predict.
The game itself was not much better than the train ride, a 18-5 drubbing at the hands of the visiting Rochester Red Wings, who apparently took the Twins' snub personally when St Paul came into the league, as they have aligned themselves with another franchise, the Nationals. What ingrates.  The visitors had the losing record (7-18) coming in, whereas the home team was 15-10, but the game didn't reflect the past.
Daniel Palka was in the lineup as DH for the Wings, and Chris Herrmann subbed in at catcher for the Woo Sox. Twins fans may recall they were once swapped for each other in a trade with Arizona.  Both have bounced around a bit since then, still seeking another chance in the majors. Palka had much the better of it last night, launching home runs in two consecutive innings; I don't remember Herrmann doing anything except look tall behind the plate.  Palka was aided by a very short porch in right field, with an outfield wall insufficiently high to moderate the advantage to a dead-pull lefty bat.  Kind of the opposite layout to Fenway Park in that regard, and the AAA decision makers apparently chose to not even try to draw comparisons to the major league counterpart 40 miles to the east. (Although, they do play Sweet Caroline during the 8th inning, because Red Sox.)
Among young talent in the lineups, Rochester had only Luis Garcia, a highly-regarded 21-year old second baseman, and Carter Kieboom, who I thought was a "perennial prospect" but turns out to be still only 23.  Worcester had a broader smattering of starters 25 and under,  I'm not sure anyone really stood out for me - I saw various bad reads and weak arms in the outfield, and a strange decision by third-baseman Yairo Munoz to not dive for a grounder than looked reachable. 
Until about the 8th inning or so, none of the pitchers for either side registered higher than about 90 on the radar gun.  Not many sharp breaking pitches diving into the dirt, for that matter.  Made it nearly through the entire first inning before a walk and then a strikeout.  Coincidentally or not, 26-year old Wings starter Sterling Sharp was the youngest of ten men (five for each team) to take the mound.  For pitchers, AAA seems to be the graveyard of dreams, and few with a live fastball or good sliders stay there for long.  AAA is really kind of my least favorite level of baseball, but oh well.  On a less grouchy note, Rochester hurler Joan Baez came into the game for the sixth inning; if they played Diamonds & Rust on the PA system when he was introduced, I missed it.
I snapped a few photos at the park but none came out as anything interesting. Here's a routine shot of Josh Ockimey striking out against Wings starter Sharp in the fourth inning.

 

What’s the worst that could happen bringing back an iconic baseball classic back for more hijinks and fun 5 years later? When this movie came out back in 1994 and I was 11 years old and I remember this being the movie that got me most excited to watch anything baseball. I saw this in a 2-screen theater in Grand Forks, ND (where I’m from) with my friends with no parents and we enjoyed everything about this movie. But does it hold up today?
 
​Major League II brings back director David S. Ward along with most of the cast from the original movie. Most noticeably missing is Wesley Snipes who by that time had built up a string of box office hits and was in to high of demand to get in this sequel. Omar Epps steps in as Willie Mays Hayes and does a good job but Snipes would have helped draw a bigger audience at the time. The movie was made for 25 million dollars but only squandered a mere 30 million dollars at the box office. The biggest change the studio made was going from rated R in the original to PG in this sequel. The change clearly did not pay off and left this movie struggling to connect with the adults who loved the first movie. The humor was a little more dried up and the themes were a lot less adult driven. Charlie Sheen does become the movies star and at this time in his career, he was at his peak.
 
​ The plot brings the team back as World Series contenders who are coming off winning the division title and then were beat by the Chicago White Sox. All the success from last season has changed the players in different ways. Rick Vaughn (Charlie Sheen) cares more about his public image over his pitching, Pedro Cerrano (Dennis Haysbert) than becomes a Buddhist becoming more carefree which hurts in game play, Willie Mays Hayes (Omar Epps) gets into making Hollywood movies to which makes him want to be more of a power hitter, and Jake Taylor (Tom Berenger) returns dealing with knee injuries and is too old to play baseball. Every single player from the first movie is dealing with something and they all have their own hurtles to overcome. Some of these seem very realistic and then there are some that seem forced just to build some internal conflict. How each one over comes their strife’s has their own issues, but they all really seemed very rushed. This movie comes off very much like a sitcom and not as much of a theatrical movie.
​
​To this movie’s credit, it does introduce some fun characters that help make this a better movie. The films highlight is the bad guy or the new player they bring in as an off-season signing in Jack Parkman (David Keith). Parkman is there to build conflict with the whole team and eventually a final confrontation with Rick Vaughn. He is a power hitting catcher who is arrogant and loves to be more about himself. He than eventually gets traded to the Cleveland’s rival the White Sox building up to a dramatic ALCS series between the two teams. David Keith does a really good job of selling that cocky and charisma that makes this character so unlikable. Another fun new character in this movie is also a catcher in Rube Baker (Eric Bruskotter) and he eventually becomes the heart of the movie. He start’s off the movie being talented and has one issue and that’s getting the ball to the pitcher. It’s played for laughs and is quickly fixed by new coach Jake Taylor who decides to give up his cleats to help the team in a new way. He has him recite articles from Playboy magazines to help him take his mind off the pressure of getting the ball back to the pitcher and it works. Rube also has a lot of good dialogue in this movie and you can tall that the screen writers wanted his character to come off a little dumb but with a big heart. Eric Bruskotter does a good job of pulling it off and deliver’s some of these lines with ease. The last new character they bring in is outfielder Isuro Tankaka (Takaaki Ishibashi) and he comes in with the trade for Jack Parkman. He absolutely is played for laughs and comes in with a temper and eventually helps break Pedro Cerrano of his hitting slump by getting under his skin and get him angry again. It is a fun pairing between the two and their chemistry plays out nicely.
 
​Although this movie was panned by critics and audiences in 1994. This movie isn’t all that bad. I had some issues with how they wrapped up Rick Vaughn’s love story and his character ark and how they wrapped it way too neat and unearned along with how the wrapped up a lot of other character’s arks and how they put Tom Berenger’s character on the backburner after being the lead character in the first movie. If you put aside all the PG humor this turns out to be an entertaining baseball movie. It has some cheesy dialogue, and it does a good job of building up the stakes. I had the excited feeling today as I did when I was 11 when Ricky Vaughn comes out at the end of the movie with his original hair cut and the stadium is blaring Wild Thing. The buildup for that moment in the movie paid off and watching the matchup between Ricky Vaughn and Jack Parkman is entertaining. This sequel is not a classic by any means, but it does a good job of entertaining baseball fans and having fun for an hour and 40 minutes.
 
Rating: Triple! 3 out of 5 stars.

Over the off-season there will be PLENTY of chatter about the Twins. They're primed to be BOLD and make a YUGE splash in free agency.
 
As a seasoned Twins fan I'm here to save you a bunch of time! The off-season is already predetermined, and your friend Vanimal found the transcript for the most DRAMATIC off-season yet...
 
10/9: Twins exercise Nelson Cruz' option
 
10/14: Jim Pohlad quoted in a Sid Hartman column "there will be no restrictions on payroll"
 
11/1: Ken Rosenthal tweets the Twins are one of several teams interested in free agent pitcher Gerrit Cole.
 
11/10: Jeff Passan tweets the Twins are attempting to schedule a meeting with Zach Wheeler's representation.
 
11/11: Zach Wheeler signs 4/$72 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.
 
11/12: Lavelle E Neal writes rushed blog post saying Wheeler's representation never returned the Twins' call.
 
12/1: Twins add 5 minor Leaguers to 40 man roster. Twins Daily writes that every player added has a floor of an average major league player, and a ceiling of a perennial all star.
 
12/4: Jake Odorizzi signs a 5/$75 million contract with the Houston Astros.
 
12/6: Pat Reusse writes column that the Twins gave an honest attempt to sign Odorizzi. Didn't want to commit to 5th guaranteed year.
 
1/13: Twins sign SP Homer Bailey to minor league contract with invite to spring training.
 
1/14: Twins season ticket holders receive automated email informing them prices will increase for the 2020 season.
 
1/27: Jon Heyman tweets the Twins make Gerrit Cole their top priority.
 
2/1: Dave St. Peter announces a new bar will be constructed 30 feet above the pitcher's mound held up by suspension cables! For $15,000 you can be RIGHT ON TOP of the action drinking your favorite local craft brew!
 
2/11: Lavelle E Neal reports Jose Berrios has turned down extension offer from the Twins.
 
2/15: Twins announce NEW FOOD offerings at Target Field.
 
2/26: Gerrit Cole signs 8/$275 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
 
3/4: Twins sign free agent SP Tanner Roark to 1/$12 million contract with a team option for 2nd year.
 
3/13: Lavelle E Neal reports SP Brusdar Graterol is in team's plans to make opening day rotation.
 
3/14: Brusdal Graterol optioned to AAA spring training.
 
3/28: Twins realize they're still short 1 starting pitcher, re-sign Kyle Gibson to minor league contract with "opt-out" on May 1.
 
You're welcome!

Over the off-season there will be PLENTY of chatter about the Twins. They're primed to be BOLD and make a YUGE splash in free agency.
 
As a seasoned Twins fan I'm here to save you a bunch of time! The off-season is already predetermined, and your friend Vanimal found the transcript for the most DRAMATIC off-season yet...
 
10/9: Twins exercise Nelson Cruz' option
 
10/14: Jim Pohlad quoted in a Sid Hartman column "there will be no restrictions on payroll"
 
11/1: Ken Rosenthal tweets the Twins are one of several teams interested in free agent pitcher Gerrit Cole.
 
11/10: Jeff Passan tweets the Twins are attempting to schedule a meeting with Zach Wheeler's representation.
 
11/11: Zach Wheeler signs 4/$72 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.
 
11/12: Lavelle E Neal writes rushed blog post saying Wheeler's representation never returned the Twins' call.
 
12/1: Twins add 5 minor Leaguers to 40 man roster. Twins Daily writes that every player added has a floor of an average major league player, and a ceiling of a perennial all star.
 
12/4: Jake Odorizzi signs a 5/$75 million contract with the Houston Astros.
 
12/6: Pat Reusse writes column that the Twins gave an honest attempt to sign Odorizzi. Didn't want to commit to 5th guaranteed year.
 
1/13: Twins sign SP Homer Bailey to minor league contract with invite to spring training.
 
1/14: Twins season ticket holders receive automated email informing them prices will increase for the 2020 season.
 
1/27: Jon Heyman tweets the Twins make Gerrit Cole their top priority.
 
2/1: Dave St. Peter announces a new bar will be constructed 30 feet above the pitcher's mound held up by suspension cables! For $15,000 you can be RIGHT ON TOP of the action drinking your favorite local craft brew!
 
2/11: Lavelle E Neal reports Jose Berrios has turned down extension offer from the Twins.
 
2/15: Twins announce NEW FOOD offerings at Target Field.
 
2/26: Gerrit Cole signs 8/$275 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
 
3/4: Twins sign free agent SP Tanner Roark to 1/$12 million contract with a team option for 2nd year.
 
3/13: Lavelle E Neal reports SP Brusdar Graterol is in team's plans to make opening day rotation.
 
3/14: Brusdal Graterol optioned to AAA spring training.
 
3/28: Twins realize they're still short 1 starting pitcher, re-sign Kyle Gibson to minor league contract with "opt-out" on May 1.
 
You're welcome!

Edit to note: the tables are now fixed, I believe.
 
Fans, we are a demanding bunch! We want fixes now, and we want them cheap, so our favorite teams can do more fixing. I maybe spend too much time on Twins Daily, and I post a lot. That makes me wrong a lot……or maybe I’m just not all that good at this baseball thing, who knows. One of the main things being discussed right now is that the Twins should add some pitching, and I’ve been wondering just how realistic that is.
 
What does it cost to get pitching? What kind of pitchers are actually traded before the deadline? When are they traded?
 
Basically, in this series of blogs, I want to know what seems realistic in terms of trades, because I’d rather be informed when posting than not. Because baseball seems to have changed, I’ll be using data from 2013 on.
First up in the analysis? So, how soon can we realistically expect trades in MLB?
 
We’ll be looking at trades in June and July to see when players change hands, and the kinds of players that change teams. Given that the August deadline has gone away, we will be ignoring those trades, which admittedly may or may not change how one views the analysis…….
 
June 1-15
 
There isn’t much action in the first two weeks of June involving major league players.
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
2
1
1
0


2014
1
0
1
1*


2015
3
3
2
1


2016
2
0
3
1


2017
2
1
1
1


2018
1
0
1
1


2019
2
1
2
1


Total[td15][/td]

6
11
6
[/table]
 
The MLB hitter and pitcher columns show the number of major league players involved. Impact trades could be either the major league player was good the year of the deal and/or after the deal, or one or more the minor league players is/was. Good is subjective, but I’m going for more than 1 fWAR in any given year as the litmus test.
 
Not surprisingly, there just aren’t that many trades in the first half of June. Teams aren’t sure if they are in or out of the race, and those that are sure aren’t certain what they really need yet. More importantly, most articles and analyses on the internet indicate that teams wait until later to deal, in hopes of having more leverage (and getting a better deal). This aligns well with options theory, but we’ll have to do more analysis to see if waiting works or not.
 
*In 2014, Manny Pina was traded. He was not a major league player at the time, so he doesn’t appear in the table above. But, he was pretty good for Milwaukee in 2017 and 2018.
 
Mark Trumbo was part of a deal in 2015. He put up decent numbers after the trade, then a good season in the next year. Now? Not so much. But, he put up half a fWAR after the deal, and 2.2 in 2016. The other side of that deal? Welington Castillo went to Arizona. He was good that year, and in 2016 and 2017. Luckily for Twins fans, he’s not been as good in Chicago! Dominic Leone also went to AZ. He had one good year, but it wasn’t for them…..
 
Chris Coghlan was traded in 2016, back to the Cubs. He put up .9 fWAR after the deal, but was hitless in 9 post season at bats. He fell off a cliff after that year. The player traded for him played parts of two seasons, and has bounced around the minors.
 
2017 saw a name that might be in trade talks again in 2019 move in early June….Sam Dyson. He and cash were dealt for a player that is currently 26 and in AAA. Dyson has been good, but not great, though this year he has put up .5 fWAR in half a season. His traditional numbers are more impressive, probably, than his WAR would show…..Why was he so cheap? He was awful in Texas. Did his current team fix something, or is it the park/league?
 
Last year? One reason C. J. Cron was available this off season is that Tampa traded for Ji-Man Choi in early June of 2018. They got him for cash and Brad Miller. I bet Milwaukee would like to have that trade back…….
 
Edwin Encarcion was recently traded for a minor leaguer, but mostly because the Yankees absorbed a good chunk of EE’s salary. The Mariners are all in on the all-important financial flexibility thing right now….
 
I’m actually surprised that six years in a row there were some impactful major league players traded. Now, not one of those had been consistently good, but it does show that some good players move in early June. Not many of those were pitchers, btw.
 
 
June 16-30
 
[table]


Year
Number of Trades
MLB Pitchers
MLB HItters
Impact Trades


2013
5
0
5
3


2014
2
2
1
1


2015
3
1*
2
0


2016
3
1
2
1


2017
3
0
4
0


2018
2
0
2
1


2019
0
0
0
0


Total
18
[4
16
6
[/table]
 
In 2013, Colin McHugh was traded (not to the Astros) and he became quite good with the Astros. But, it was not an impactful deal for either team involved in the deal. He is an impactful player in the deal, so it counts. Eric Thames was also dealt that year, and put up a couple decent years after that. No one else in those five deals has done much, though Colin Cowgil managed to barely clear the 1 fWAR line in 2014…..so three impactful players were dealt that year!
 
2014 saw a rare pitcher for pitcher trade. One of them just cleared 1 fWAR the following year, but neither did anything much. Neither did the hitter traded that year. Really, calling 1 year of fWAR impactful seems like maybe too low a bar…….I’d call it almost useful for 1 year, but barely.
 
In 2015 AZ sent the injured *Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint to Atlanta for a guy. Touki could be a real piece for Atlanta. This was clearly a salary dump situation, where Atlanta basically bought Toussaint for Arroyo’s contract. So far, though, he’s not produced even one half WAR, so maybe not.
 
Chris Paddack and Fernando Rodney were traded for each other (so maybe pitcher for pitcher trades aren't rare?) in 2016. This looks like a great trade for the Padres for sure. Rodney, of course, has been ok to effective after that but was terrible in Miami. I’m still trying to figure out what Miami was doing…..No other trade that year mattered, unless you still pine for Oswaldo Arcia….
 
There were no interesting trades in 2017 in the second half of June.
 
Steve Pearce was quite good last year for Boston. He was traded for an ok AA player. The other trade last year was not all that interesting.
 
This year? Well….there were zero trades in the second half of June.
 
So, the second half of June saw one really good player change hands, plus Steve Pearce who was quite good last year for Boston. Other than that, not many players/trades mattered all that much. It’s an odd coincidence that there were six trades that cleared the approximately 1 fWAR barrier in both parts of June, but it’s just a coincidence.
 
What did we learn?
 
That depends on what you already knew, I guess……But here’s a summary of what I learned!
 
Some good players have been traded in June. Most of those involved salary dumps, or odd decisions by poorly run teams (Miami, for example). There just are not many trades in June at all, and most of them amount to nothing much. It’s hard to criticize any team for not making deals before July, given this data. The best players were either picked up in salary dumps, or were near MLB ready minor league players (admittedly, those in the lower minors have not had a chance to do much yet. That said, in a quick glance, none look like big time prospects either).
 
In other words, I'm not surprised nothing has happened much this year, given what has happened in recent history.
 
In the next post, we’ll look at the first three weeks of July…..

This is my second installment tracking all of the FA relievers. This was a personal nit to pick with the front office given the team's need and the plethora of available options. At the quarter pole though, the results were not as good as I'd have liked personally. At this point, the sample sizes are large enough that we should be able to get a feel for who was worth it, or if FA relievers really are just a crap shoot.
 
 
The cream of the Crop:
 
Kelvin Herrera - Herrera signed a 2/17 deal with Chicago and has so far been a complete bust, posting an ERA north of 7 out of the pen in 35 appearances so far this season. His K rate has been acceptable, but his BB rate has risen along with his WHIP which sits close to 1.2. His HR rate has also skyrocketed sitting at around 1.5 per 9 innings.
 
Andrew Miller - Miller has turned it around a bit since the quarter pole, but even now it's hard to say his 2/25 deal with an additional option is what the Cards hoped it would be. His numbers are currently sitting around his career average as opposed to the 2014-2017 version that we had all hoped he'd do. I cannot really call this a bust anymore, but I'm not sure he'd be a name highly talked of if he was pitching here. To put it in perspective, his ERA sits right around where the much maligned Blake Parker sits. Granted, his peripherals are much better which tells me he may continue to positively regress.
 
Adam Ottavino - I hate the Yankees. He's been a stud. His walk rate seems to be the only negative. He's striking out 12+ per 9 innings and walking 6+... That said, his WHIP is a healthy 1.3 as batters cannot make contact with him.
 
Craig Kimbrel - This was a name we all watched closely. He's only managed 3 appearances for the Cubs since signing, so it's a bit too early to track this one. He has been shelled so far... but then again, it's 3 appearances.
 
Jeurys Familia - Familia thus far hasn't rewarded the 3/30 contract he signed. His K rate is in line with his career norms, but he's walking more, giving up more hits, and giving up more home runs. His peripherals are pretty ugly right now and he sports a sparking 7.76 ERA in 31 appearances.
 
Zach Britton - Britton signed a 3/39 deal with the Yankees and has pitched reasonably well, though I'm not sure why. His K rate is pretty bad for a reliver and below his 7.34 career average. His walk rate is up as well. He's managed to lower his H/9 rate as well as keep the ball in the park. If he was pitching for MN, I think most of us would be on pins and needles, but he's gotten results thus far in his 37 innings of work.
 
Joe Kelly - Kelly signed a 3/25 deal with the LAD and has improved substantially on his results this quarter. Despite that, he hasn't been that good. His K rate remains good, but he's still allowed more walks, hits, and home runs over his career average. And I'd add that his career marks aren't very good for a RP. LA has him for another two years.
 
David Robertson - Robertson signed a 2/23 deal with Philly and has been a bust so far. He's pitched in only 7 innings and has been shelled. He's currently on the shelf with elbow soreness where he has been all season.
 
In all, there has been only one real hit here in Ottavino. Miller is making a case for being added to this list as he's improved substantially over his numbers earlier this season. Britton has gotten results as well, but he appears to be on borrowed time.
 
The Second Tier:
 
Justin Wilson - Wilson was a cheap grab for the Mets, signing a 2/10 deal. It appears that he spent most of the second half of the quarter on the DL, as he's only logged 10.2 innings of work with a 4.22 ERA. He's got time to redeem himself, but this deal hasn't gone well.
 
Joakim Soria - Soria signed a 2/15 deal with Oakland, and has improved a bit on his numbers at the quarter turn. His ERA has dropped and his peripherals all look pretty good. Oakland has worked him hard as he's got 41.2 innings under his belt already this season. I'd say at this point that the signing has been good. I'm not sure the cause of the bloated ERA, but if I was guessing it would be the occasional big game as his peripherals say he's been pretty good.
 
Cody Allen - Allen signed a 1 year deal with the Angels and so far has not lived up to his 8.5M salary. His HR and BB rates have skyrocketed though he still maintains a sexy K rate. His 5.54 ERA is something we can all live without. He's now in our minor league system. I'd say this is a good deal for the Twins getting him at the minimum if they can fix him, not so much for the Angels who will pay the rest of the 8M owed. Time will tell if we can do something, but this was no risk to us. He was a bust though for the Angels.
 
Jesse Chavez - Chavez signed a 2/8 deal with Texas, and is trying to reinvent himself as a reliever. At the quarter pole, the results weren't all that good, but they've moved into respectable territory at the half way mark. I'd say at this point, this is a good signing, especially for the price. Chavez could replace a few arms in our pen, but we'd be happy to upgrade him. His K rate is below average for a good reliever, but he does minimize walks and hits.
 
Trevor Rosenthal - Rosenthal has under performed his 1/7 deal and has been a complete disaster managing only 6 innings of very ugly baseball in the majors.
 
There are only 5 names in this tier, and it has improved a bit as the season wore on. At the quarter pole, there
wasn't a name on this tier that we'd be clamoring for. Now, Chavez and Soria both fall into a range of acceptable. That's not really high praise, but they appear to be trending in the right direction and could be reliable going forward.
 
Cheap Fliers:
 
Brad Brach - At the quarter pole, he wasn't that bad. At the half way mark, he's been horrible. The K rate is nice, but he's walking guys like crazy as well and still gives up hits. His ERA sits over 6 in 35 innings of work, and I'm sure he's part of the reason the Cubs went out and got Kimbrel.
 
Zach Duke - yes, that Zach Duke. He signed a 2M deal with the Reds and has been so bad that they've only given him an additional 5 innings since the last time I wrote this piece. He's been injured for parts of it and largely ineffective when healthy.
 
Cory Gearrin - the Mariners have, thus far, gotten a bargin with Gearrin for the 1.4M value of his contract. He has regressed a bit since the quarter pole but has notched over 30 innings of OK work. He really needs to cut down on his walk rate a bit. This isn't a bad value signing, but he doesn't have a place on a contending team. He's been worse than Parker to put that in perspective.
 
Greg Holland - Holland has regressed a bit from the quarter pole, and his numbers currently sit in line with his more recent 2015-2017 marks. He still doesn't look like the Holland of old, but for 3.25M, he's been cheap and effective. This is definitely still a win for AZ, and he'll likely be flipped for a lotto ticket by teams looking to replace busts on this list, but he's not pitching like a late pen option either.
 
Shawn Kelley - Another nice find for the bargain price of 2.75M. Kelley has only pitched 32 innings at this point and would be a decent option in our pen. He's not elite, but he's gotten results to the tune of a 3.09 ERA. His biggest draw back has been the long ball. He'd be an upgrade over several members in our pen currently.
 
Aaron Loup - The Padres got him for 1.4M and he's been perfect so far this season. The only real problem is that it's a 4 inning sample as he hit the IL in early April with elbow soreness.... and he's still there. I have to call this a bust at this point.
 
Blake Parker - At the time of signing, I simply noted that I didn't mind it if this was not the main RP piece we've added. Sadly, it was, and it wasn't even the best move. I'm not tracking Ryne Harper here as he was signed to a minor league deal, but he's out performed Parker. Parker, on the other hand, has out performed most of the people I'm tracking. This is technically a win for the front office, but literally everyone here wants him upgraded. Parker's biggest problem has been home runs, though his peripherals are all well below what they were when he was a successful MLB reliever. I think he might be adequate if kept in lower leverage situations/mop up duty, but relying on him with any kind of consistency in high leverage situations would be a mistake.
 
Oliver Perez - Perez signed a 2.5M deal with Cleveland. He has only pitched in 24 innings thus far. A quick search didn't find any injuries, but Cleveland is clearly not heavily using him. He's been acceptable for them with some pretty good peripherals backing an ERA of 3. His HR rate is a bit higher than one would like. This again is a great value signing and would be better than just a mop up guy.
 
David Phelps - The Blue Jays signed him in hopes that he recovers from TJS at some point this year and pitches. He went under the knife last spring. Not a bad risk for 2.5M. He hadn't pitched at the quarter pole but now has 9.2 innings notched. This may end up being a good signing, time will tell. He hasn't pitched well enough to warrant someone giving up much in terms of prospects for him. Perhaps that changes in the next couple of weeks given the SSS issues at play here.
 
Tony Sipp - Sipp signed for 1.25 for the Nats and has not been good. He's improved a bit on his quarter pole results, but he's pitched in only 16 innings thus far.
 
Hunter Strickland - Strickland signed a 1.3M deal and has pitched all of 2 innings, and poorly only to hit the IL with an injury. He appears to be starting rehab at this point. Not a bad gamble, but a bust.
 
Adam Warren - Warren has been a bust in 28.2 bad innings for SD. He's gotten worse as the season went on and is costing 2.5M. I doubt he fetches much value at the deadline.
 
Summarizing the fliers, there were some good finds here. No one in this group falls into a late inning option, but several would be perfectly acceptable in the next tier. I count 5 guys that are successful and that would be desired by a number of teams if they were available. None of those guys, however, would be that elite help they needed, but would be acceptable tier 2 BP options. There are 5 busts here and one guy in the too soon to tell.
 
In all, my conclusion hasn't changed much. FA relievers haven't been an option. Only Ottavino has lived up to his status at the top, though through the half way point there are a number of names that would fit nicely into the tier 2 mark. Statistically speaking, the fliers have performed the best so far... and that's not high praise. The front office might have been right in not plunking down good money for help here. The problem is that they will now shell out some decent prospects for help here.

With the trade deadline quickly approaching Twins fans are rightly focused on adding pitching to the major league roster. The offensive is still on a record setting home run pace and has great major and minor league depth, so any offensive additions would be superfluous. However, the Twins may be able to add by subtraction.
 
Jonathan Schoop may have been the least significant off season offense upgrade the Twins added due to the savvy additions of Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzales. However, the front office still had high hopes for Schoop who was signed on a one year deal. Schoop, of course was an all-star in 2017, when he had a career year with Baltimore slashing .293/.338/.503 for an OPS of .841. He mashed 32 long balls and 105 RBI in a 160 games. Schoop came crashing back down to earth in 2018 with and ugly .682 OPS between Baltimore and Milwaukee. While Falvey and company many have been dreaming of a return to 2017, it certainly wasn’t out of the question to expect something closer to Schoop's career averages.
 
And to be fair to Schoop this is what he has done. He is currently slashing .256/.305/.458 for an OPS of .763 while playing slightly above average second base. This is even slightly better than Schoop’s career averages. He has been good for 1.5 Bref WAR and by all accounts is a beloved member in the clubhouse. However, while Schoop looked like his former 2017 self coming out of the gate (OPS of .819 through May 31), more recently he has looked like the Schoop of 2018 (OPS of .672 since June 1). More frustrating to fans, Schoop seems to excel in blowout games (how many garbage time HRs has he hit?) while consistently striking out in “clutch” situations. The numbers seem to back up the eye as Schoop is hitting .163/.230/.438 with RISP and .205/.279/.231 in late inning pressure situations. The problem is with a lineup full of power hitters, Schoop becomes a bit redundant, and more importantly the Twins have better options for second base. Plenty of them as it turns out. Let’s take a look.
 
All Arraez
 
Luis Arraez has been nothing short of amazing in his first big league stint. He is currently slashing .385/.444/.510 for an OPS of .955. In 29 games he has already accumulated 1.1 Bref WAR. Arraez is obviously playing a bit over his head right now, but he has been a good hitter throughout his minor league career and between AA-AAA this year he hit .344/.409/.401. He is not going to hit .400 or slug over .500 long term but his plate approach is very refreshing. On a team of free swingers and power hitters Arraez looks like a nice table setter and in his short time with the twins has come up with several “clutch” hits. His rather twitchy batting style is also extremely entertaining to watch. Arraez has played all over the field for the Twins, including third base, short stop, and left field, but he is clearly best suited for second base where he has spent the majority of his minor league career. Arraez is firmly implanted as the front runner for second base next year and it is also becoming increasingly apparent that he is the answer now.
 
The Others
 
Both Marwin Gonzales and Ehire Adrianza currently appear to be better options than Schoop at second base as well. A large part of the value in both of these players is their versatility, so sticking Arraez at second clearly makes the most sense. However, were something to happen to Arraez both of these players are more than capable of filling in. Both players started the year ice cold so their stats took a bit of a dip because of this (pretty much the opposite of Schoop). Gonzales currently has an OPS of .748 with a 1.9 Bref War and Adrianza has a .788 OPS with a 1.1 Bref War in only 148 plate appearances. If one of them were to fill in at second for Schoop (or Arraez) the other would still be available for the utility role.
 
What to do with Schoop?
 
Cutting Schoop is probably ill advised. Although it would give more at bats to the previously mention trio, Schoop has played well enough that cutting him wouldn’t really make sense. Could he be traded for pitching? This is very unlikely as he is on a one-year deal and the Twins will most likely be trading with non-contenders who are uninterested in a rental. There are, however, a couple of long-shot possibilities. One would be a three-way trade with Schoop going to another contender (presumably because of an injuring to the team’s second baseman) and a pitcher from the third non-contending club coming to the twins. Another possibility could be Schoop being a thrown-in to offshoot an incoming player’s salary (similar to the Twins acquiring Logan Forsythe from the Dodgers in the Dozier trade). Again, this is unlikely.
 
The best course of action is probably just to keep Schoop and relegate him to a bench role with less and less playing time. He could occasionally fill in against lefties and seems like the ideal guy to have around the clubhouse (assuming he doesn’t become bitter about his decreased roll). He would also be a valuable depth piece as we have seen how hard injuries can hit.
 
What do you think? Should Schoop be our starting second baseman, a role player, or be removed from the team all together?

Let me preface this post by acknowledging that the odds are low Machado signs with the Twins in real life. With low odds, we need to be BOLD and aggressive right upfront to schedule a meeting with him.
 
Mr. Machado, I want you to remember 3 numbers. 60, 40, and 3. We'll go into more detail what those numbers represent.
 
Let's start with the first number, 60. That's the number (in millions) I'm willing to offer you to play for the Twins in 2019. The organization is in a great spot financially with little to no extensive contract commitments after 2019. No one in baseball will be within $20 million of your annual salary. I hope this gets your attention.
 
The second number is 40. And that will be your AAV of your contract with the Twins for the first 3 years of the contract. After the first year where you make $60 million, you'll drop down to $30 million and still be one of the top paid players in the game. Not even Mike Trout has an AAV of $40 million. I hope this gets your attention, Mr. Machado.
 
Now let's talk about the last number, 3. This number is especially important because it allows you to control your own destiny. I'm willing to offer 3 opt-out clauses for you after your the 3rd year of your contract. If the team is failing to contend, it's your prerogative to opt-out and play somewhere else. However, we're confident the next wave of prospects in our system will compliment you very well from years 4-6 of the contract.
 
So what do you think Mr. Machado? Is this bold enough for you to spend the next 6 years of your career with the Twins?

http://gentlemint-media.s3.amazonaws.com/images/2012/04/18/6745f59b.jpg.505x650_q85.jpg

 
 
ANND Welcome! To Minnesota Twins Whine Line: Detective Edition! I'm your LEAD Investigator, Vanimal, along with my trusty sidekick, the intern. Since we last checked in, both of us set down the PS4 controllers, put MLB The Show back in the case, and studied for our Private Investigator license! In the real world, we noticed that it's January 30th, and 8 out of the top 10 free agents have still yet to sign! It's a strange, boring off-season... There's been several STRONG takes about why this is happening... And we're no different! We decided to put on our Deerstalker, and dive deep into the REAL reason why recent off-seasons are boring...
 
Collusion: It happened once before, so it could happen again, right? That's what we thought too! Until we put it to the test using real world examples... Have you ever arranged a conference call with 30 busy people before? It's NEARLY impossible to do! Plus, they would waste countless hours of time! Owners will be talking over each other, waiting for others to take themselves off mute, jumping on the line 25 minutes late, and needing to "circle back at a later time." All of that sounds exhausting....
 
Whine Line Verdict: False.
 
Waiting for a Sale: As consumers, we're accustomed to Black Friday, Cyber Monday, 4th of July BLOWOUTS, or "just because!" sales. Doesn't it feel good to purchase what you wanted, for a 30% discount! Of course it does! General Managers are humans too, and they want to feel like they got a discount... Now these days he could look at MLBTradeRumors, FanGraphs, even the Twins Daily Handbook to find salary projections of free agents. Where's the excitement?! The THRILL of the hunt?! Perhaps they're waiting for their Cyber Monday sale....
 
Whine Line Verdict: Certainly possible!
 
Too Many Options: Typically at this time of year, 1 or 2 of the top free agents are left unsigned... If that! This year, there are 4 to 8 times as many options! Is it possible that General Managers are frozen in fear because there's too many players to choose from? We took our investigation on the road to get to the bottom of it!
 
ANNND Welcome back! We're broadcasting LIVE from the Cheesecake Factory! That's right, the home of a 20 page menu.... If you can't find something to eat here, you're not looking hard enough! In order to test this theory, the intern and I gave ourselves a 30 minute window to decide what to order...
 
WAITER: "Here are your waters, gentleman. Do you have any questions about the menu? Or know what you want?"
VAN: "I think we need a little bit of time. There's so many options here. Any specials?"
WAITER: "Today's soup of the day is split-pea, and we also have a Philly cheese steak with your choice of fries, salad, fruit, onion rings, or vegetable."
VAN: "Wow, even the sides have a bunch of options to choose from... Okay, we need some time."
 
8 minutes later...
 
WAITER: "Are you ready to order? Questions at all?"
VAN: "Yeah, a few questions. I'm debating between the Avocado BLT, Philly cheese steak, Chicken Parmesan, or Chicken Enchiladas. What would you choose?"
WAITER: "Hmm, well, our Philly is one of the most popular orders today. The Chicken Parmesan is okay, but I would recommend our Spaghetti and Meatballs over that. And frankly, you're better off going somewhere else for Mexican food."
VAN: "That helps... And the Cobb Salad?"
WAITER: "I mean, it's a salad.... So... How about you sir, are you ready?"
INTERN: "I'll have the uh, chi.... No. Not that. Umm.... Can you come back to me?"
WAITER: "Guys, I do have other tables to tend to. I'll come back later."
 
13 minutes later....
 
WAITER: "Okay, how about now?"
INTERN: "I.... I...... I JUST CAN'T DECIDE! Please, come back to me, okay?"
WAITER: "Are you crying, sir?"
INTERN: "It's your fault! There isn't a perfect option to order... EVERYTHING has flaws!"
WAITER: "Okay, this is getting weird. What about you, sir?"
VAN: "I have narrowed it down to 2 items, and I will get back to you by the end of the week."
WAITER: "This ISN'T how this works, sir. Look, guys, it's only lunch. You're just spending some money now... It's not like you're trading me your watch, or I don't know... a top prospect like Nick Gordon in order to eat. So what do you say? Let's figure this out before my shift is over, okay?"
VAN & INTERN: "Wow... This HAS to be how Falvine feels signing free agents.... I've seen the light!"
 
Whine Line Verdict: TRUE

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ANND Welcome! To Minnesota Twins Whine Line: Detective Edition! I'm your LEAD Investigator, Vanimal, along with my trusty sidekick, the intern. Since we last checked in, both of us set down the PS4 controllers, put MLB The Show back in the case, and studied for our Private Investigator license! In the real world, we noticed that it's January 30th, and 8 out of the top 10 free agents have still yet to sign! It's a strange, boring off-season... There's been several STRONG takes about why this is happening... And we're no different! We decided to put on our Deerstalker, and dive deep into the REAL reason why recent off-seasons are boring...
 
Collusion: It happened once before, so it could happen again, right? That's what we thought too! Until we put it to the test using real world examples... Have you ever arranged a conference call with 30 busy people before? It's NEARLY impossible to do! Plus, they would waste countless hours of time! Owners will be talking over each other, waiting for others to take themselves off mute, jumping on the line 25 minutes late, and needing to "circle back at a later time." All of that sounds exhausting....
 
Whine Line Verdict: False.
 
Waiting for a Sale: As consumers, we're accustomed to Black Friday, Cyber Monday, 4th of July BLOWOUTS, or "just because!" sales. Doesn't it feel good to purchase what you wanted, for a 30% discount! Of course it does! General Managers are humans too, and they want to feel like they got a discount... Now these days he could look at MLBTradeRumors, FanGraphs, even the Twins Daily Handbook to find salary projections of free agents. Where's the excitement?! The THRILL of the hunt?! Perhaps they're waiting for their Cyber Monday sale....
 
Whine Line Verdict: Certainly possible!
 
Too Many Options: Typically at this time of year, 1 or 2 of the top free agents are left unsigned... If that! This year, there are 4 to 8 times as many options! Is it possible that General Managers are frozen in fear because there's too many players to choose from? We took our investigation on the road to get to the bottom of it!
 
ANNND Welcome back! We're broadcasting LIVE from the Cheesecake Factory! That's right, the home of a 20 page menu.... If you can't find something to eat here, you're not looking hard enough! In order to test this theory, the intern and I gave ourselves a 30 minute window to decide what to order...
 
WAITER: "Here are your waters, gentleman. Do you have any questions about the menu? Or know what you want?"
VAN: "I think we need a little bit of time. There's so many options here. Any specials?"
WAITER: "Today's soup of the day is split-pea, and we also have a Philly cheese steak with your choice of fries, salad, fruit, onion rings, or vegetable."
VAN: "Wow, even the sides have a bunch of options to choose from... Okay, we need some time."
 
8 minutes later...
 
WAITER: "Are you ready to order? Questions at all?"
VAN: "Yeah, a few questions. I'm debating between the Avocado BLT, Philly cheese steak, Chicken Parmesan, or Chicken Enchiladas. What would you choose?"
WAITER: "Hmm, well, our Philly is one of the most popular orders today. The Chicken Parmesan is okay, but I would recommend our Spaghetti and Meatballs over that. And frankly, you're better off going somewhere else for Mexican food."
VAN: "That helps... And the Cobb Salad?"
WAITER: "I mean, it's a salad.... So... How about you sir, are you ready?"
INTERN: "I'll have the uh, chi.... No. Not that. Umm.... Can you come back to me?"
WAITER: "Guys, I do have other tables to tend to. I'll come back later."
 
13 minutes later....
 
WAITER: "Okay, how about now?"
INTERN: "I.... I...... I JUST CAN'T DECIDE! Please, come back to me, okay?"
WAITER: "Are you crying, sir?"
INTERN: "It's your fault! There isn't a perfect option to order... EVERYTHING has flaws!"
WAITER: "Okay, this is getting weird. What about you, sir?"
VAN: "I have narrowed it down to 2 items, and I will get back to you by the end of the week."
WAITER: "This ISN'T how this works, sir. Look, guys, it's only lunch. You're just spending some money now... It's not like you're trading me your watch, or I don't know... a top prospect like Nick Gordon in order to eat. So what do you say? Let's figure this out before my shift is over, okay?"
VAN & INTERN: "Wow... This HAS to be how Falvine feels signing free agents.... I've seen the light!"
 
Whine Line Verdict: TRUE