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prouster

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Everything posted by prouster

  1. prouster
    No one has been able to fill Mauer's shoes in this regard since he retired.
  2. prouster
    Daaaaaaaa Twins.
  3. prouster
    Rooker is old enough that an extra year of control shouldn’t be a factor. I can’t understand keeping Garlick on the roster over him.
  4. prouster
    Someone had grant money to burn.
  5. prouster
    I guess I don’t get what you’re arguing. David Ortiz may have benefited from going the other way more often, but he didn’t need to change anything because he was a natural pull hitter who went with the ball and had HOF level offensive output, but we also don’t know what might have gone differently if he stayed in Minnesota? There doesn’t exactly appear to be a point here so much as an acknowledgement that we can’t know what didn’t happen.
  6. prouster
    What’s the difference between a natural pull hitter who goes with the pitch and a guy who just pulls the ball a lot? That strikes me as a distinction without a difference. I don’t want to derail the thread, but all of Ortiz’s star years came in Boston. Maybe they got lucky, but the Twins philosophy in those years was infamously centered around slapping the ball to the other field. If he stayed with the Twins, I feel pretty safe assuming he would not have had the decorated career he did. I just can’t imagine suggesting a guy who homered 500 times should have changed anything about his approach. If that’s not good enough, then what is?
  7. prouster
    Maybe a new pair of glasses on occasion, too.
  8. prouster
    David Ortiz made 10 All-Star teams, won 7 Silver Slugger awards, and hit over 500 career home runs. I think did just fine murdering baseballs to the right side of the field. I'd go so far as to say the Twins were on the brink of ruining him with their insistence on "going the other way."
  9. prouster
    Yeah, like anything it would need buy in from the players. FWIW, it looks like the Cubs were going to do it with Kris Bryant last year for the reason I give in my earlier post. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-kris-bryant-leadoff-20200219-jvvizmn7qvcl3eifpughxneqai-story.html%3foutputType=amp
  10. prouster
    Off the top of my head it’s rare, but it looks like the Giants tried it with Willie Mays late in his career. https://www.google.com/amp/s/vault.si.com/.amp/vault/1969/04/21/leading-man-wondrous-willie I think it’s more of a theoretical stance than something teams have commonly done.
  11. prouster
    I’m firmly in the camp that says you fill the lead off spot with your best hitter, because whoever leads off gets the most plate appearances. It would be unconventional for sure, but I’d like to see Cruz or Donaldson there.
  12. prouster
    Thorpe has a lot to prove, that’s for sure. If I remember correctly, he didn’t respond in the most mature way when he was cut last spring. It’s good to hear that he seems to have taken stock and figured some things out. Going purely on what I’ve seen of his performance (all at the MLB level), he hasn’t looked very impressive. His fastball velocity wasn’t great to begin with, so a few lost ticks last year were alarming. It’s good to see that his velocity has seemingly improved, albeit over I think one spring inning. FWIW, my understanding is that he topped out at 93 that day and mostly sat at about 90. We’ll see if it holds up or improves further. What has alarmed me more is his inability to spot the fastball. Guy can overcome moderate command issues if they’re throwing serious heat. Much harder to get over that if you’re around 90. Personally, I don’t have a lot of hope for Thorpe, but I’d be happy to be wrong. Edit: I missed that Thorpe had another pitching appearance. As of 3/9, he has tossed 3.0 innings with 5 strikeouts.
  13. prouster
    I could get behind a 28-30 player roster if there were, say, 3-5 healthy scratches per night. Even with the three batter minimum I think managers would be tempted to circle through their bullpen if they had nine relievers to pick from.
  14. prouster
    This is a terrific post. Thank you for all this information!
  15. prouster
    I'm glad to see Garver hit the ball with authority early in the spring. Hopefully he's got a handle on whatever his issues were last year. And I fully agree, catcher cam needs to be part of the game broadcasts.
  16. prouster
    If I'm comparing player A, who averages a 60 mph exit velocity and goes 3 for 10, with player B, who averages a 110 mph exit velocity and goes 2 for 10, I know who I think will wind up with more hits over the long term. This isn't some weird new stat. Players who hit the ball harder get more hits.
  17. prouster
    I'd never heard of this league. Some really awesome names on the rosters. Jim Rice. Vida Blue. Fergie Jenkins. Rollie Fingers.
  18. prouster
    None of that is true.
  19. prouster
    Actually, this year they kind of were.
  20. prouster
    I can't find any data that granulated. Agree that FG's pitch values aren't predictive. They basically show how much WPA a player contributed by pitch type compared to their peers. My basic concern is that Garver had more pitches to hit and made contact with fewer of them, while the percentage of fastballs remained pretty much the same as in 2019. To me, this suggests that he was missing pitches he should have been hitting. I think that's quite alarming, because hitting fastballs is the absolute least a MLB hitter needs to be able to do. However, I believe this is a red flag and not a kiss of death. Hopefully it was just a slump or an injury. He's 30 and plays a tough position, though, so my fear is that he's already lost some bat speed.
  21. prouster
    https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mitch-garver/15161/stats#pitch-values Fangraphs' Pitch Value tool shows how a hitter fared against different pitch types. 0.0 is average. Above that is above average, and below is of course below average. Garver murdered fastballs in 2019 (24.8) and had a really hard time with them last year (-3.6). On top of that, the percentage of fastballs he saw last year ticked up by a little less than 1% compared to 2019—probably not enough to think twice about. His O-Swing% went down while is Z-Swing% went up. His contact % both outside and inside the zone went down (Z-Contact% went from from 88% in 2019 to 76.5% in 2020). He also saw a higher overall percentage of pitches in the strike zone last year than in 2019, and his swinging strike % ballooned from 8% to 13%. This all suggests he was swinging and missing at more pitches he should have hit, many of which were fastballs.
  22. prouster
    You're entitled to your opinion, of course. I just don't see a distinction between "this team is less exciting than previous [objectively crappy] ones" and "I am the least excited I've been about a Twins team in a long time." I don't have the post pulled up, but I think in an earlier one you even said the bad ones were more exciting for you. Again, that's your right. It's just confusing to me, especially given the run of good baseball the team has played over the last couple years.
  23. prouster
    Maeda—and any other pitcher—can only play in the games that are scheduled. He pitched extremely well in those games last year. A full season at that level would produce north of 6 fWAR. Liriano had one or two years that were comparable. You mentioned Hughes’ one good season. Ervin Santana was water in the desert, but he never had a season for the Twins that came close. Obviously Maeda is a regression candidate. No one has said he’ll perfectly reproduce his 2020 over a full season. But he did post career bests in K%, BB%, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, exit velocity, and hard hit %. And he didn’t outperform his peripherals. They all support his excellent performance and suggest that he made real strides. My gripe is that some folks don’t seem to appreciate how good Maeda actually was last year, or that the front office made a smart and creative trade to bring him here. I also don’t understand the pessimism. I don’t expect the Twins to win 100 games or anything (though I happen to believe they’re a legit World Series contender), but to say this team is less exciting than the squads of the mid-teens—when the rotation consisted of people like Cole De Vries, Sam Deduno, and Pedro Hernandez—is mind boggling and frankly comes off as trolling.
  24. prouster
    If was a Yankees fan in 1961, I’d want Roger Maris on my team in 1962. No one has said Maeda is the greatest pitcher in the league.
  25. prouster
    Agree it hurt to lose Graterol. We’ll see how he develops and if he ever starts again. Regardless, I think it’s an under appreciatd trade simply because of how good Maeda pitched and the contract he’s on. Off the top of my head, it’s arguably the best trade the organization has made since AJ went to San Francisco. I actually don’t think it really matters if Graterol becomes elite or flames out. Maeda pitched like a mad man last year and seems like he made some real improvements. I just get frustrated when I see people making criticisms I don’t think are fair against people who have a really hard job that doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things. Baseball should be fun.
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