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prouster

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Everything posted by prouster

  1. prouster
    Well, if .348 doesn't count as ".350ish," then I'm not sure what does. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1744&position=1B/3B
  2. prouster
    Trigger Warning Off Topic: Three, but I'd call them more "cans" than "dumpsters."
  3. prouster
    Sorry I should have clarified. It's Jerry Gibson, a guy who used to live down the street from me and let me throw a tennis ball against the side of his garage while he raked leaves. He would join me sometimes and could really sling some pepper. I think he's around 93 years old now, but cryogenics makes that irrelevant. I think guys who lived down the street from me when I was a kid are another market inefficiency that Terry Ryan is too for-profit, against-winning to even consider.
  4. prouster
    I really like this idea. Cryogenics seems like it could be the next market inefficiency. How good could we be if we were able to sign any player, living or dead? If you think about it, the last time we won the world series was in 1991. THerefore, you don't even need to wait for a player to die for them to be good, because most of those guys are still around. In fact, you could get through contract negotiations while they're still alive, because you wouldn't want it to interfere with the reanimation process. Can you imagine signing a guy like Gary Gaetti to a 75 year contract to man the hot corner? With that in mind, here is my ideal opening day roster for 2016: Ricky Henderson LF Joe Morgan 2B Chris Davis DH Sano 1B Ripken 3B Honus Wagner SS Arcia RF Hicks CF Mauer C (where he SHOULD have been playing all along because his bat actually plays here) Nunez Buxton (if he ever learns how to hit because I don't think he even knows how to hold a baseball bat) Pierzinski Morneau who adds value for sentimental reasons Berrios Duffey Bob Feller Walter Johnson Gibson Rollie Fingers Dennis Eckersley Mariano Rivera Perkins Pressley Wade Davis (trade Plouffe for him) Burdi This lineup likely wouldn't produce at peak value for another 30-50 years, but that's okay because you're window for competing is literally infinite when you aren't bound by the laws of life and death. Of course, Terry Ryan is Terry Ryan and would probably dumpster dive for the Jeff Reboulets and Ron Karkavices of the world. TYPICAL.
  5. prouster
    No, I haven't watched any at bat that isn't available on the nightly highlights posted to Rochester's website. The stats simply don't support the idea that he's hitting a bunch of doinkers and beating them out on foot. For one thing, he's slugging .549 (before tonight's double). That's borderline elite. His wRC+, which is a weighted measurement of a player's runs produced per at bat adjusted for the league and ballparks that person plays in, is sitting at 193. League average is 100. This means Buxton has been almost 100% better than the average AAA hitter in his first 12 games there. There's nothing to suggest that he isn't murdering the baseball right now. For the record, it's discussions like these that made me wish we had batted ball data available for MiLB. That would clarify a lot.
  6. prouster
    Scorching hot taek. This is one of the problems some people demonstrate when it comes to sabermetrics: the analytically minded aren't always so analytical. It's pretty shocking that someone would value Buxton's AAA peripherals over his actual performance. He's absolutely crushing the ball right now, which of course leads to inflated BABIP and reduced walk rates. Yeah, his ISO isn't incredibly high (which isn't to say that it's low), but that's because his batting average is incredibly high. He's slugging .549 for Rochester, which is pretty stinking good. He's also OPSing .993, and his wRC+ is sitting at an irrefutably robust 193. Of course, this is all in an extremely limited sample size, so much of it is noise (although his performance has so far lined up with his track record). It's silly to look at just one or two stats, even if they're "advanced," and claim they describe the whole picture. I really don't get how anyone could look at Buxton's AAA line and assume that somehow he isn't hitting sufficiently well. Sometimes, when trying to figure out what's "really" going on, we can get too bogged down in shoddy analysis and miss out on what is happening right before our eyes.
  7. prouster
    "Trout is no doubt the best player in baseball, but is he the most valuable?" Um, yes. Let's say teams value players at $6 million per WAR, which is a pretty conservative estimate. Trout has already put up 5.5 fWAR this year, which makes the first half of his season worth approximately $33 million. His salary this year? Slightly over $6 million. Simply put, he provides Aneheim with a ridiculous surplus they could get from absolutely no other player. His salaries for the next five seasons are as follows: 2016: $16.083 million 2017: $20.083 million 2018: $34.083 million 2019: $34.083 million 2020: $34.085 million Even though Trout will make an incredible amount of money through the end of his contract, he'll still be vastly underpaid, which is really weird to write. In terms of "most valuable," it's Trout, and nobody really comes close. As far as Dozier goes, he's having a really great season. I think he'll (deservedly) get some MVP votes, but he's got some tough competition to actually bring the award home.
  8. prouster
    I'm curious as to why you think this about Berrios? In my mind, he has been the organization's best pitching prospect since last year, and he seems much more likely to last as a starter than Meyer, who is looking more and more like the bullpen will be his long term spot. I guess Berrios and Santana are both Latino men who are short in stature for MLB standards, though I think that's where the comparison ends. Santana never had the prospect pedigree that Berrios does, so his success seemed like it came from nowhere. Berrios, on the other hand, because of his MiLB track record, seems like he could be a legitimate ace. Basically the only thing scouts ever knock about him is his height. To my knowledge, there is no proof that shorter pitchers are less successful or less durable than taller ones. Personally, I'm just as excited for Berrios to arrive in the Twin Cities as I am Buxton and Sano. As for Stewart, he's still really young and can definitely come around.
  9. prouster
    Of course, there is also Berrios to look forward to. Before tonight's start, he was sporting a 3.27 ERA (which I believe went up a tick) with 11.45 K/9 and 3.27 BB/9. The thing to remember with Berrios (as well as with Buxton, and somewhat with Sano), is that he is several years younger than his competitors. This is important--prospects are like kids, where a year or two can mean a significant difference in development. Sure, before Buxton's current hot streak, he wasn't putting up the eye popping numbers that Kris Bryant was in AAA, and Sano is still shaking off the rust despite putting up pretty solid power and BB numbers so far, but we have a lot to be excited about with this Chattanooga roster. Let's not forget guys like Jorge Polanco, ABW, Travis Harrison, Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, Tyler Duffey, and to possibly a lesser extent Dalton Hicks, Levi Michael, and Zack Jones. Plenty of promising young players to keep an eye on besides the blue chips.
  10. prouster
    Byron Buxton's last eight games, according to Baseball Reference: .452/.526/.806. This includes two doubles, three triples, a home run, five stolen bases, and six walks to two strikeouts. He's tearing the cover off the ball at the moment. If he puts up even a fraction of this production over the next 1-2 months, then he'll be pounding on the proverbial door to the MLB team.
  11. prouster
    Agree. I think Nick is correct in general, but it seems strange to me that Gibson is included when many of us were harping on Terry Ryan et al. for delaying his callup to the Majors just a season and a half ago. Of course, Nick hedges this by saying Gibson deserves a longer leash than others, though I think Gibson and Hughes should be the only rollover starters whose spots are guaranteed. In other words, no need to worry about Gibson, especially after a single start.
  12. prouster
    As for a projection, I don't know. .260/.315/.420 with 35 doubles and 26 dingers? How does that sound?
  13. prouster
    Based on what? Vargas has demonstrated the ability to hit for power since he's been in the Twins' system. He slugged almost .500 over the course of his minor league career, and his home run total in the majors last year projected to almost 30 over a full season's worth of at bats. Choosing OBP to determine a player's ability to hit for power is . . . wacky. The only player on the team with more raw power than Vargas is (for the time being) Arcia. Simply put, the Billy Butler comparison makes no sense, because Vargas can mash.
  14. prouster
    I guess we're ignoring Schafer's godawful 1100 at bats before coming to Minnesota.
  15. prouster
    Long time reader, first time poster: If I remember correctly, the Twins drafted Mauer because Prior made it very clear he wouldn't sign with Minnesota. Drafting Prior wouldn't have provided any benefit, and perhaps would have set back the organization. And I don't think we should put too much blame on Mauer for the poor playoff record--bad pitching did us in, as well as half the batting order turning into whiff factories (Kubel for instance). But you're essentially stating that Mauer is the reason for the miserable play in the Twins' recent playoff appearances. According to Baseball Reference, he slashed .182/.250/.432 in the 2006 ALDS, which was bad (only Punto and Jason Tyner were worse). In the 2009 ALDS, he slashed .417/.500/.500 (only Punto was better). Then in 2010, he slashed .250/.308/.250 (Thome, Hardy, and Kubel were worse). Of course, Mauer's career playoff slash line of .286/.359/.250 only comes in 39 plate appearances, hardly enough to draw any meaningful conclusions. Mauer has helped the team in the playoffs, and he has hurt the team. The reasons for their awful performances in October have to do with far more people than just Mauer. Personally, I don't see how anyone could argue that there was a better option than Mauer in that draft. He's made a very strong case for himself as the greatest hitting catcher of all time, and with maybe two or three more 2 WAR seasons, which is very very attainable for a player of his caliber, I think he'll be a lock for the Hall of Fame.
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