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prouster

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Everything posted by prouster

  1. prouster
    I just want to point out how incredible this thread is.
  2. prouster
    There are still some pretty decent upside guys left. Enlow, for example.
  3. prouster
    Also true. I'm referring to the general consensus at the time, whatever that means.
  4. prouster
    Very true. He's turned out a lot better than expected.
  5. prouster
    I don't mind it. If he turns out 2/3 as good as Correa—who was mocked around 7th overall for the most part—it's an excellent pick.
  6. prouster
    This is very interesting. Baz, perhaps? I'd be surprised if he fell that far. Maybe someone like Sam Carlson? I would like that, as I think the local boy is being punished in prospect rankings for coming from a cold weather state.
  7. prouster
    I don't advocate the following at all, but am throwing it out there to measure opinions in the room: What if the Twins take someone who will likely be an expensive sign at 1-1 (Greene, let's say) and hold firm on an asking price we'll below slot? If he signs, excellent. If he doesn't, they get a high pick and the entailed bonus money next year, when there's likely more talent atop the draft. Again, I don't think they should do this. Just a thought.
  8. prouster
    LENIII just tweeted that the "Lewis steam is real" and that McKay and Greene are "also in the picture." Says it's coming down to money.
  9. prouster
    I guess I can see why people think McKay could add velocity/generally grow as a pitcher by working on it full time. But people assumed the same thing about Kohl Stewart before he gave up football. So, is there any evidence whatsoever behind this assumption, or are people just making up stuff?
  10. prouster
    At 22, Carlos Correa already has a 3.5 win season and a 5 win season. Realistically, he's more than any team should expect to draft even at 1-1.
  11. prouster
    My guesses are A) they genuinely like McKay, B ) they're blowing smoke in the hopes that someone else will lower their asking price, or C) McKay himself is cheap and someone they think is good enough to justify taking 1-1. I have no idea which would be most or least likely.
  12. prouster
    This is one of the better TD articles I've read in a while. Some really bizarre and kind of half baked comments, but the article itself is compelling and presents interesting data.
  13. prouster
    Super interesting find. Thanks for posting. I've been hoping the Twins take a crack at Vientos or Ramos at 35 or 37. I'm not sure if there are signability concerns with either, and Vientos had a disappointing spring, but the upside is huge for both players.
  14. prouster
    McKay pitched against Notre Dame in the ACC tournament yesterday. He hit a grand slam though had a rather mediocre pitching performance. Per the Fangraphs prospect guru:
  15. prouster
    Well, the jury is still out on the two most recent. Berrios definitely looks promising, while Stewart has had his struggles. Looking at high picks, which generally have a higher hit rate, the Twins haven't taken many HS pitchers (this millennium). Round 1: Stewart (2013) Kyle Waldrop (2004) Supplemental/Sandwich picks: Berrios (2012) Hudson Boyd (2011) Jay Rainville (2004) The last HS pitcher the Twins took in the first round before any of these guys was Dan Serafini in 1992. So, it seems they've trended in other directions. If anything, the Twins' track record of taking college arms (when they haven't selected toolsy HS outfielders, that is) kind of debunks the notion that college pitchers are by definition "safer" than their younger counterparts. Every player needs to be evaluated on a case by case basis, of course, but I'm not sure it's okay to make generalizations about any team and/or kind of player when it comes to the MLB draft. Everyone misses more often than not, and even most of the "safe" guys fail.
  16. prouster
    Every team knows going into every contract that injury is a risk. The amount of money teams make off their players' labor compared to what the players earn in compensation for that labor makes it very difficult to feel bad for the Pohlads. They can afford it. At any rate, a comparison to A-Rod is loony. Hughes is owed about $26 million over the next two years. The Yankees would have needed to pay about three times that amount if they didn't negotiate a way out with A-Rod. As well, my quick and dirty math says that Hughes has been worth (conservatively) about $56 million as a Twin. That's valuing one fWAR at $8 million, which is too low going forward. Between the original contract and the extension, Hughes will have earned a hair over $67 million as a Twin. That's about $11 million lost to injury, assuming he doesn't contribute anything in the future. Ideal? Absolutely not. A-Rod? Absolutely not. Will $11 million prevent the Twins from signing free agents and/or extending their younger players? Absolutely not.
  17. prouster
    No it isn't. He signed a contract and is entitled to that money. The Pohlads can afford it.
  18. prouster
    We can probably conclude safely that three of those are Greene, Wright, and McKay. Who might be the other two? Lewis? Gore? Someone else?
  19. prouster
    Wright's velocity seems to have stayed on point into the later innings of his start.
  20. prouster
    Kyle Wright tossed 7.1 innings tonight against Alabama. 5 hits, 1 walk, 1 run, 11 strikeouts. Another excellent start.
  21. prouster
    Do you mean McKay? Wright usually sits 93-95 and has topped out at 97. I don't know enough about mechanics to comment extensively, but he seems balanced to me. He should probably be using his lower half more, but he repeats his delivery well, which to me says he's in control of his body.
  22. prouster
    I have to respectfully disagree. I don't think you draft a guy 1-1 and construct your plan around his eventual failure. They'd need to decide if he's a pitcher or a hitter and go with it. Any change down the road should be a worst case scenario where he is trying to salvage his career.
  23. prouster
    Some bright spots regarding Miguel Sano's Statcast metrics: Leads MLB with 98.7 mph average exit velocity2nd in MLB with 102.9 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives4th in MLB with 92.1 mph average exit velocity on ground balls4th in MLB with average batted ball distance of 232 feetLeads MLB with 68.2% of batted balls achieving exit velocity of 95 mph or greater3rd in MLB with 22.7% Barrels/Batted Ball Event (a "Barrel" is a batted ball with an estimated BA greater than .500 and an estimated slugging % greater than 1.500; so, he's hammering a little over 1/5 of his batted balls)3rd in MLB with 22.7% Barrels/PA So, Miguel Sano has been hitting the ball as hard as anyone in the Majors, except maybe Aaron Judge. To me, this means he'll probably be able run a higher than normal BABIP and K% while still being productive. This seems to reflect what we've all seen watching him mash.
  24. prouster
    Some of these must be swings and misses. I watched almost the entire game, and I saw nothing egregious. A few on the bottom of the zone that I thought were balls, but those went both ways.
  25. prouster
    Right. This is actually what the second part of my comment says. I'm not sure why you chose not to include it. And of course BPA is subjective. "Best" is a value judgement. It's up to the people making the decision to form some kind of standard and try to build consensus from there. Dismiss the concept all you want, but I'd wager most front offices get excited about specific players with specific skill sets, which they think of as the "best" they can get.
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