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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has now published a piece that counters the "Forsythe is basically Dozier" article by Zimmerman. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-decision-to-be-intentionally-inefficient/
  2. dbminn
    Kinsler is a great player but he has a no-trade clause and will only waive for a contract extension. He's already 34 years old. He will cost the Dodgers more money for more years at a time when they're trying to reduce their luxury tax. Any contract extension means the Tigers will get almost nothing in return.
  3. dbminn
    There is risk to keeping Dozier but not near as much as putting all of his value on a single prospect. I'd still rather trade Dozier if the price is right. But all is not lost if the Twins walk away from a poor deal.
  4. dbminn
    None of your options fit as well as Dozier in terms of age, performance, position, contract and cost in prospects. The Dodgers are trying to win this year and not significantly add to their $200+ million budget. Some Dodger bloggers may not want to trade prospects but I'd think Dodger fans want the best player available. I think the Twins should wait to get full value.
  5. dbminn
    Agreed on both comments. They win by having a better team. The Dodgers have a big hole at 2nd base. They become a better team this year by trading prospects. I think Dozier makes the Dodgers better than they would be with Forsythe. Maybe the Dodgers agree with you. We'll see.
  6. dbminn
    If I was a Dodger fan, I would be pretty upset if they passed on Dozier. Right now, FanGraphs projects the Dodgers to be roughly even with the Cubs. That's with an estimated 0.5 WAR from the best of their available 2B. Their budget this year is well north of $200 million. They're committed. The Dodgers have a deep farm system. They can risk two real prospects for a relatively cheap Dozier. What are the Dodger options? Kinsler, who's 34 years old and has a no-trade clause. He has said he'll waive the clause only if he gets a contract extension.Forsythe, who'd cost less but would bring less performance (6.8 WAR, past two years).Jace Peterson of the Braves has been mentioned too. He's amassed 1.0 WAR over the past two years and 1,000 PA.I think Friedman will call back as spring training nears.
  7. dbminn
    Dozier is 3rd in Fangraphs WAR from 2014 to 2016. Only Kinsler and Altuve are ahead of him. Considering age and recent performance, I wouldn't trade Dozier for any on the list except Altuve. Cano and Kinsler are excellent but will be 33 and 34 yrs old for the 2017 season.
  8. dbminn
    Thanks for putting up the blueprint, Brandon. I won't quibble with Castro and Gomez, although I don't think Gomez is going to be had on a one-year contract. There are a couple of changes I would make: Trade Dozier as long as the return reflects a cheap player in his prime that has outperformed the league the last three years (13.9 fWAR total).Trade Ervin if the return is above value.Key positions in return would be young SS, SP and RP in order of priority. No need to rush Gordon. There's no problem if he develops quicker than expected. It will be easy to trade from an excess of shortstops. I have no problem if Dozier is traded and the primary return is a SP. They're close in priority. Lesser changes: The trade window has passed on Plouffe. Time to let him go.Keep Santiago but trade him if a real prospect can be had. That may seem outrageous but the free agent SP market is really thin.
  9. dbminn
    A lot of good comments re: development, pitching, big moves etc... Another way to emulate the WS teams is to improve the defense. The Cubs were the best defensive team in the majors this year. Cleveland was the best defensive team in the AL (9th overall).They graded out at 175 and 85 runs better than the Twins. Upgrading defense will immediately improve the team and give needed support to the pitching staff. At SS, the Cubs and Cleveland graded between 30 and 40 runs better than the Twins on defense. I'd like to see the Twins get a solid defensive SS to bridge the gap until Gordon arrives. (Trade Dozier, Polanco to 2nd base) In the OF, the Twins were -30 runs to Cleveland and -80 to the Cubs. In this case, improve the defense by subtraction. Grossman caused the most damage (-20 in 99 games). Release him and pick up a defensively competent 4th OF to fill the gap until the next prospect arrives. Otherwise, let the youngsters play. Finally, acquire a veteran defensive catcher. Garver, Centeno and Murphy can battle for the backup (or co-starter) spot to start the season.
  10. dbminn
    Fine article, Thrylos. I would disagree on only a few moves, mostly based on maximizing value. I wouldn't move Gibson at his point of lowest value. There is little risk to keeping him until at least mid-season, especially since you have opened 16(!) spots on the 40-man roster. Trading Santana would depend on a premium return. I think there is value to keeping a solid veteran pitcher while the youngsters develop. Vargas or Walker could be included in a trade package to improve the return. Same for Duffey or Mejia, if the trade package brought the Twins a high-ceiling starter.
  11. dbminn
    The Twins will start 2017 with an outfield that averages 23 years old. With Sano (23) and Polanco (22), the Twins have an incredibly young lineup. All have had at least some positive MLB experience. They need to be more consistent, which is a problem that will be solved with time. It's hard to say these five youngsters haven't quickly developed. There are only 39 MLB players 23 or younger with at least 100 PA this year and the Twins have four of them. All will be in the lineup next year with some games under their belts. That is not failure. Pitching? Yeah, been bad for years. Let's hope the new Pres/GM can improve development of the good young prospects already in the pipeline.
  12. dbminn
    His peak seven years were as a catcher, as is 90+% of his total WAR. Is that enough to define him as a catcher? I think so but others may agree with you.
  13. dbminn
    One method used to determine if a player is HOF-worthy is the "JAWS" system created by Jay Jaffe. It looks at both career WAR and 7-Year Peak WAR. There are 14 catchers in the HOF. Mauer is ranked 11th all-time in career bWAR and 5th all-time in 7-year peak bWAR. (JAWS uses Baseball Reference, not Fangraphs) By these numbers, Mauer should get into the Hall. Arguments against him include lack of championships, down years late in the career, and not playing in New York, LA or Boston. I'd vote for him.
  14. dbminn
    Sometimes a commenter's insight is exceeded by their grace. Nice comments, Jimbo
  15. dbminn
    Sano has responded to the demotion talk (my earlier comment included: "I wouldn't mind seeing him sent down"). His last few games have proven two things. Sano: Lost his focus for a while.Has the talent to respond in a couple of days.Please stay focused, Miguel
  16. dbminn
    Yup
  17. dbminn
    Plouffe could have more value now than in the offseason. The Indians need some additional power and the Tigers need a full-time 3B. He should clear the other teams in the waiver process. There's no reason for a developing team to take him and the other contenders have 3B covered. (He could get "blocked", I guess) It's not likely this will all fit together but there is a chance. Hopefully, it works out for everyone - Plouffe moves to a contender. The Twins get both a low-level prospect and an open roster spot. I'd be willing to put Plouffe on the roster for a week to see if anyone bites. Send Vargas to AAA until something happens or September 1.
  18. dbminn
    RP - Chargois, Light (with a good August) SP - Wheeler, Mejia C - Garver (Murphy, if Garver to AZ) IF - Beresford, Park OF - Palka
  19. dbminn
    I don't watch much minor league ball. When I do watch, I like to see a compact, balanced swing. Wade has it. He's a long way from the majors but I wouldn't count him out. He could be a good one.
  20. dbminn
    Lack of an apostrophe can make a world of difference.
  21. dbminn
    I totally agree with you, spycake. I was a little clumsy with my words. This is a big issue, especially (I think) for the Twins system. TR stressed that he wanted the young Latin players to learn English. He never understood that cultural issues - especially discussing difficult topics - are a big deal. This thread started about Sano in particular. I still believe Sano has to work on his game. I don't think Molitor and Bruno were out of line in their particular comments - they've waited many months before making their thoughts public. It is frustrating to know that there might not be a mentor for Sano, with his background, available to talk about it.
  22. dbminn
    Totally agree. Maybe a long-term report during the offseason by the crack TD crew is in order.
  23. dbminn
    I've been irritated for years by the lack of Latin-American mentors in the Twins system. That being said, it's hard to say the Twins have kept LA players down. They have been playing Centeno, Vargas, Polanco, Escobar, Sano and Rosario, with Santana and Rodriguez on the mound. Only Sano has had his work ethic called into question. Not every bump in the road is caused by management. Sano needs to work some things out and I think he will.
  24. dbminn
    It's great to see the prospects starting to reach their potential. I'm optimistic Sano will report a different player next year, partially because some of his peers have (temporarily) passed him by. There will still be some ups and downs, but the bottom has been left behind as far as hitting is concerned. Hopefully, the starting pitchers will start to catch up with the position players in the next year. At least they will have some options: Santana, Gibson, Berrios and Rodriguez likely make up the front four. Mejia, Duffey, Wheeler or May could be fifth to start the season. I wouldn't rule out Gonsalves after the all-star break. I don't think the pitching outlook is as bleak as most think. Of course, a big trade for a high-upside SP wouldn't hurt. The Twins have enough depth to trade position players from either the MLB club or the farm system. Along with pitching, I'd like to see them pick up a SS who plays excellent defense.
  25. dbminn
    Like many that have already posted: Let Plouffe rehab for the maximum stint. Plouffe on waivers. Maybe the Indians will bite. He'd fit well on their bench as a part-time player/PH. Vargas sent down with assurances he'll be back 9/1, although Sano needs the remedial work more at this point.
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