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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Deeper look: Of 199 players with at least 200 PAs, he ranks 51st in runs per game and 82nd in runs per plate appearance. Steven Kwan, similar player, but significantly faster, leads in both runs per game and runs per PA. I'd say Luis is not scoring runs at the rate one would hope based on his ability to get to 1st base frequently (he's 35th in OBP in the same sample group). He's not fast so he struggles to go first to third, first to home, and 2nd to home. I don't think you should point to his run scoring acumen as evidence of him being super valuable.
  2. chpettit19
    FYI, Luis Arraez has scored 41 runs this year. That is 33rd in baseball. He has stepped to the plate 327 times. That is 11th in baseball. Make what you will of those stats.
  3. chpettit19
    Baseball America has him at #66, and based on Fangraphs article on their top 100 about a month ago he'll be on theirs when they do their mid-season update. So, according to at least 2 lists, he is a global top-100 prospect.
  4. chpettit19
    When so many guys make such huge jumps it does raise some questions about the competition they're facing. I'd very much like to see Wallner, Severino, Helman, and Keirsey (when he's back) continue to dominate, and have Julien and Kirilloff join them, too. Will be fun to watch their performance against other teams the next few weeks.
  5. chpettit19
    No, keep writing your own! I'm just here for extra support 🙂 Sometimes it's fun to respond to something and then go back and scroll to see who's agreed or disagreed already. Keeps us a little unbiased at least. Or so I'd like to think.
  6. chpettit19
    I don't know all of the Dodgers options, but I'm not sure why people think they'd want our 3rd string SS to fill in for Mookie. Farmer can't even backup SS here, but we think the Dodgers want him to be their starter for 6 to 8 weeks? I find that hard to believe. What makes him a better option than Rojas, Kike, or Taylor? Kyle Farmer vs Rojas for 2024: Why would the Dodgers give the Twins anything for Kyle Farmer?
  7. chpettit19
    I'd be shocked if the Twins went with a 12 man staff for any considerable amount of time. They do everything they can to make it a 14 or 15 man staff by sending guys down, calling guys up, DFAing guys, etc. A 12 man staff just isn't something they seem to think is an option at all.
  8. chpettit19
    2 and 11 pitches over 64 and 59.1 innings sure seem like things that don't really matter at all. He's essentially been a 3 pitch pitcher since 2020. If he needs a 4th pitch at the age of 37 to be effective he's probably not going to be effective anymore.
  9. chpettit19
    Yeah, I just saw the Severino snippet on the site about him going ballistic last week as well. The Bats' arms helped boost a lot of numbers for the Saints' bats.
  10. chpettit19
    While I still believe the Twins need a big bat for the heart of their order, I'm not trading Keaschall for a rental.
  11. chpettit19
    Then your argument is he found his swing in 10 games? Since that's all you're cutting out. 10 games is all it took? And he's been "raking" ever since? Absurd. He has seemed to find his swing in the last 2 weeks. Not "months" ago. Your claim of him "raking for months" is absurd. His month of May was a .741 OPS. There's one of your "commonly used data sets." Your claim of him "raking for months" is wrong. He hasn't been. We're 17 days beyond that "commonly used data set" of "a calendar month" where his OPS was .741. He hasn't raked for months, he's raked for 2+ weeks. I don't know why you can't say that since it's the clear and obvious situation. His OPS at the end of May was .679. He flat out hasn't been "raking for months." He is very clearly comfortable against the Louisville Bats pitching staff as they were the team he lit up for a 4 game stretch in early May before completely cratering again, and they're the team he just got done lighting up for the last week. You're attempting to take advantage of an incredibly small sample size to claim he's raked for "months" when it simply isn't true. Again, his OPS for May was .741. Suggesting he was raking during the month of May is ignoring all fact and reason. You simply can't be "raking for months" when your last calendar month was a .741 OPS. Sorry.
  12. chpettit19
    You skipped his first 10 games in AAA. Why? That's 20% of the sample size. You're doing every bit the cherry picking that others are. Yes, you do have to pick a point, but why wouldn't that point be when he got to AAA? Why don't you want those 10 games included if 10 games is too small of a sample size to matter anyways? Here, I'll do the same thing, but from the time he got to AAA until his 42nd game: First 10 Games: .520 OPS 20 Games: .763 OPS 30 Games: .641 OPS 40 Games: .737 OPS 42 Games: .766 OPS So 42 games into his 52 game stint he had a .766 OPS. 52 games in he has an .882 OPS. That sure makes it look like he's been a below average hitter for 80% of his time in AAA while the last 20% were out of this world. If he'd really been "raking for months" why was his OPS 1.5 months into his 2 month stint below .800? There was no "apparent 3 game, 7 game, 8 game, 4 game, 12 game, 1 game, 5 game methodology." There were 10 and 13 game chunks. So just under 2 full series to just over 2 full series. I'm sorry you have to exaggerate my "methodology" to fit your narrative.
  13. chpettit19
    His contract is going to be one of the most fascinating we've seen in some time. I'm quite interested to see where teams value him in terms of money. 1 more year of arbitration before hitting the market before his age 29 season. Is San Diego going to have talks about whether he's even worth his last arb number? Will be quite interesting.
  14. chpettit19
    Probably shouldn't get on people for "cherry picking" when you chose to ignore his initial stretch in St Paul and cherry picked May 1 as your starting point for "months" of raking. He's actually been in AAA for almost exactly 2 months so it's pretty clearly cherry picking to ignore the bad stretch to start before calling out others for cherry picking. He's been very good in AAA overall (.250/.332/.550/.882 in 52 games). But he has also very clearly been either very cold or very hot. I don't know why that's bad to point out. It took a 2 week stretch (13 games) of a .513 OPS in the majors to get him demoted. The initial stretch you chose to cherry pick out was a 10 game stretch of .520 OPS. Then he went on that 10 game stretch of a 1.000 OPS to start May. Before absolutely cratering to a .356 OPS over the next 13 games (remember, 13 games were enough to get him demoted in the first place). And now he's working on his 3rd week of a 1.300+ OPS and we all hope it continues for the rest of the year. But it seems awfully fair to point out that almost 4 of his 8 weeks in AAA have been as bad or worse than the 2 weeks it took to get him demoted in the first place.
  15. chpettit19
    May 2021- 1.005 OPS July (didn't play in June) 2021- 1.091 OPS April 2022- .741 OPS May 2022- .984 OPS June 2022- 1.214 OPS July 2022- .766 OPS April 2023- .889 OPS May 2023- 1.081 OPS June 2023- 1.020 OPS July 2023- .695 OPS April 2024- .513 OPS in Minneapolis, .499 OPS in St Paul May 2024- .741 OPS June 2024- 1.326 OPS I'm failing to see this "notoriously horrible first half hitter." I have no idea where that narrative comes from, but it isn't accurate. This year is very clearly an outlier.
  16. chpettit19
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-dog-ate-my-prospect/ This article has been passed around on a few other threads and thought it'd be worth adding here as some context on how well the Twins develop. Not going to lie, they're higher than I'd have guessed.
  17. chpettit19
    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5557861/2024/06/14/mlb-draft-biggest-misses-2014-astros-brady-aiken/ Keith Law did a pair of articles over at The Athletic about the 2014 draft. I thought it was a good reminder of how hard drafting and developing is and how many flat out misses there are in drafts. His article on the biggest misses that year included 20 first round picks. Nick Gordon being among them. I know people are disappointed in what Nick ended up becoming, but the first 2 picks in that draft (Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek) never made it to the majors. The number 6 pick (Alex Jackson) has accumulated -1.4 WAR. That's 3 top 10 picks who never reached the majors or have been bad there. Gordon has 0.4 WAR so he's nothing to be excited about, but this drafting stuff is hard. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5556843/2024/06/14/mlb-draft-2014-redraft-trea-turner/ Law's other article was doing a "redraft" of that year. Trea Turner- Matt Chapman-Aaron Nola-Logan Webb-Dylan Cease were his 1-5 picks. No Twins picks made his 30 man 1 round draft. Overall, I just thought it was an interesting look back at a draft from 10 years ago.
  18. chpettit19
    Kyle Farmer as an everyday SS is a disaster of an idea. At this point he isn't even the backup shortstop. Royce Lewis has played 80 games in 3 seasons. He was expected to debut a year earlier even so if you really want to get into it he's played 80 games in 4 years. If you're not expecting him to get hurt you're not paying attention. At this point, he's no different than Buxton. Banking on him to be a 150+ games played guy is ignoring a whole lot of reality over 4 seasons. The injury happening on opening day isn't the point. If he'd miss June and July you're still stuck with no real SS. Nobody knew Miranda was going to bounce back like this either. If you're going to take the hindsight knowledge of his performance into account you don't get to ignore the hindsight knowledge of Lewis being hurt. Which was the far more predictable thing at the start of the year. Sonny could've been signed for the cost of Santana, Farmer, Margot, and Vazquez. It's far easier to replace all 4 of them than it is to replace Carlos Correa. Lee also missed the first 2 months of the season hurt. And he has a career .755 OPS at AAA. That's not "knocking on the door to the majors." Fans hope he's in the majors soon, and an above average player, but beyond prospect rankings and draft position he hasn't actually shown he can do that. If you believe Carlos Correa isn't worth his money I hope your stance is that the Twins should never sign any stars. This is what they cost. And he is a star. Building a team around only pre-arb and arb players is incredibly hard to do if you're trying to compete for the playoffs and World Series.
  19. chpettit19
    What would that extra 33 million have gotten you? What if Lewis was at SS and Miranda was at 3B, what would you have spent the money on this offseason? And who would've been playing SS for the first 2 months of the season while Lewis was hurt?
  20. chpettit19
    That could very well be true. But there's always ways around the money aspect. The Mets were happy to make it so the Astros and Rangers didn't have to add salary to get Verlander and Scherzer last year. And I'm not suggesting there's going to be some huge jump in guys traded. I'm not predicting that a guy who would've cost 1 top 100 guy plus filler is now going to cost 3 top 100 guys, or even 2. But if they used to cost a top 5 system guy plus a top 10 guy and a top 15 guy, they may now cost a top 5 guy and 2 top 10 guys instead. Generally speaking, though, the more possible buyers you have the better your odds of finding the 1 guy who will "overpay" for what you have. If teams are holding out for 3 top 100 guys on someone who should cost 2 top 10-15 system guys they're going to be disappointed. But the odds of talking a team into giving up a guy from tier 2 when they only wanted to trade from tier 3 go up with the more buyers and fewer sellers there are. Supply and demand. It's not about huge jumps in cost, but there's likely some incremental cost increases.
  21. chpettit19
    You still have to make the playoffs. Some jobs depend on it. AJ Preller has to be feeling some heat. The Cards don't finish below .500 (had done it once in the 21st century before last year) and I'm sure Mozeliak is feeling some heat. The Astros are trying to hang onto a bit of a dynasty. The Rangers just won the World Series after making a big deadline deal and going crazy on spending. The Blue Jays are at decision time on the core of their roster and the FO and manager all have to be feeling it after years of "going for it." Seattle is desperate for some playoff success. Lots of different reasons. Just squeaking into the playoffs isn't the goal for Philly, LAD, Atlanta, San Diego, or the Yankees. That's 10 teams off the top of my head. Cleveland saw what happened when they did absolutely nothing so they are likely not going to just sit pat with a real division race this year. Detroit invested during the offseason and may not be able to fight the temptation to give a little extra effort at the deadline even if they're a year ahead of schedule. KC has to be hungry to get back to the postseason. There's only 5 teams in baseball more than 6 games out of a wild card spot. 3 pretty clear sellers in the AL (LAA, Oak, CWS) and 2 obvious sellers in the NL (Col- even though they're impossible to predict and probably won't sell at all, Mia). That leaves 25 teams who can all find reasons to talk themselves into buying. It being easier to make the playoffs just means there's more teams trying to make the playoffs. "Just make the playoffs" is a pretty big oversimplification of things.
  22. chpettit19
    I think the deadline moving forward will almost always be a seller's market. With the playoff expansion there are just so many teams that can talk themselves into having a chance. Or FOs that are on the hot seat and feel they need to make a push to save their jobs. Sellers can work up far better bidding wars now than in the past because there's so many more teams fighting for playoff spots. Will be fascinating to see how teams evolve their deadline strategies.
  23. chpettit19
    No, #2 catcher isn't better. Yes, the team needs 2 catchers, but that doesn't mean one has to be bad. Just like needing 5 starters doesn't mean any of them have to be bad. He's not a #2 catcher, either. He's got the 25th most PAs as a catcher in the majors this year. That's a #1 catcher according to the fact that there's 30 teams. The Twins don't do "backup" catchers. They do co-catchers. You can't have 1 good catcher and 1 bad catcher if you're going to split them 50/50. Unless you want to take away the entire advantage of having that 1 good catcher and are just looking for league average performance out of that spot. Vazquez is very good defensively, and I don't think there should be any question about whether or not he's worth rostering. But 3/30 was too much when he signed, and way too much now. The Twins are stuck with him no matter what for this year and at least most of next cuz they aren't going to eat that money or trade a prospect to get rid of him. The real problem right now is that Jeffers is terrible.
  24. chpettit19
    There have been 79 guys to get at least 1 PA as a catcher (according to Fangraphs). Of those 79, Jeffers is 23rd at 136 and Vazquez is 25th at 132. He's most certainly not a "backup." And, no, they absolutely don't sign him for 3/30 if they knew this is how his first 2 years would go. There's a reason he was struggling so hard (according to all the reports) to find someone to give him a 3rd guaranteed year. Teams didn't want to be in the spot the Twins are now in. But, to be fair to Vazquez, he's been hitting better than Jeffers recently so not being the backup at this point in time makes sense.
  25. chpettit19
    The problem only arises if too many of your righties can't hit righties. The Twins platoon to avoid lefties hitting lefties, not righties hitting righties. The problem is that the righties they match with the lefties in platoons can't hit righties. If you're going to go to the extremes the Twins want to go to to avoid lefties hitting lefties you can't have so many righties that can't hit righties. The problem isn't in the number of righties they have, it's the quality of righties.
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